ReadWriteWeb

Bloglines Subscriber Stats Redux

Written by Richard MacManus / October 14, 2004 10:11 AM / 6 Comments

Remember my post 3 months ago that analysed Bloglines subscriber stats? Well I thought I'd review the numbers. You can blame Seb Paquet for this ;-) Why? Because he's just posted something on his weblog for the first time in over 3 months, which got me thinking about how his time away from blogging affected his stats. It turns out his Bloglines subscriber numbers have increased by 25% over the last 3 months, despite him not posting a single new entry! A similar story for Mark Pilgrim, who has all but turned his back on blogging - yet his stats are up 31%.

You'll notice my own stats have increased by 73%, but that's only the rose-tinted view. My subscriber numbers in Bloglines have increased by 58, which may sound good (and it is!) but it's the second-lowest number in this group. So in terms of raw numbers, the rich are getting richer. I'd term myself a working class blogger struggling to lift himself up into the middle classes. ;-)

Some provisos about these stats. The biggie is that some bloggers have a variety of RSS feeds and so the one I am tracking here may not be their primary feed. Or an alternative feed to the one I'm tracking may be the one getting all the new subscribers. So the numbers below are by no means authoritative.

I really wish Bloglines would aggregate all of a person's RSS feeds into 1 combined feed, for subscriber-tracking purposes. Or even better, open up their API to tracking subscribers.

There are other provisos - e.g. the number of subscribers says absolutely nothing about the quality of a blog's content. I must stress this, because it's something I always keep in mind when deciding whether to subscribe to someone. i.e. I don't subscribe because they're popular, I subscribe because I want to read their content.

And of course, Bloglines is not the only RSS Aggregator in town (I found out the other day that I have 8 Yahoo! subscribers - you can pick that info up by looking at your server logs).

Bearing in mind then that these stats are not authoritative and may in fact be misleading, there are still some interesting trends. The fact that Seb continued to grow his subscriber base despite not posting during the last 3 months is one of them. And it's also possible the folks with 0-150 Bloglines subscribers are growing at a better rate than those bloggers with 1000-odd subscribers - e.g. myself, Dina, Paolo. One way to counter the 'rich getting richer' theory perhaps? I don't know...

Needless to say, I'd be interested in your comments on these stats.

Bloglines Subscribers Table, July-Oct 04 (version 2)


Blogger 18-Jul-04 15-Oct-04 Subscribers Gained % change
Richard MacManus 79 137 58 73.4%
Dina Mehta 134 211 77 57.5%
Talking Points Memo 1964 2841 877 44.7%
Instapundit 1737 2452 715 41.2%
Jon Udell 1619 2257 638 39.4%
Jason Kottke 2184 2985 801 36.7%
Lawrence Lessig 2794 3777 983 35.2%
Paolo Valdemarin 149 201 52 34.9%
Mark Pilgrim 2100 2764 664 31.6%
Tim Bray 1517 1989 472 31.1%
Anil Dash 884 1142 258 29.2%
Sébastien Paquet 563 705 142 25.2%
Dave Winer 2652 3299 647 24.4%
Marc Canter 417 512 95 22.8%
Lilia Efimova 744 852 108 14.5%
Mitch Kapor 924 1054 130 14.1%
Daily Kos 1361 1475 114 8.4%

Update: An hour after I posted this, I've noticed what looks like a correction to the Bloglines subscriber database. Most of the bloggers in the table above have dropped 4-5 subscribers just in the last hour - including myself, as I'm now on 137 (was 141). And e.g. Dina has dropped to 209 (was 214), Paolo 200 (was 205), Lilia 851 (was 857), Seb 704 (was 708). This is all just in the last hour! Hmm, I wonder if Bloglines does semi-regular "cleaning" to remove duplicates and other anomalies?

Update 2: Because the Bloglines subscriber database was seemingly cleansed an hour after I published my number-crunching (see Cesar's comment below for the probable explanation), I decided to re-do the numbers today. Most of the people in the 0-1000 range lost 4-5 subscribers, so our percentages have dropped. But interestingly I noticed a few of the political blogs increased, I suppose due to the presidential debates. Anyway, more food for thought...

Comments

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  • Would be a nice step to also link to their blogs here - how to find them else? ;)

    Posted by: Fred | October 14, 2004 9:30 PM



  • About the clean up... A few days ago I started getting new subscriptions from dir, dira, dirb, and dirc, which are gone now. I guess it's happened to evrybody. That would explain losing 4 subscribers.

    Posted by: CÈsar | October 14, 2004 10:09 PM



  • One explanation for Seb and Mark's subscriber totals increasing is the growing number of people who are switching to Bloglines, and bringing a long OPML file with them. I'd read the increase as largely driven by Bloglines growth.

    The numbers seem to suggest that among the readers of Kottke/Dash/Udell/Bray (we'll call them them the web savvy), BL growth is about 30%.

    Alternately one could speculate that when someone is posting regularily its easy to check back to look for new content, but once they go radio silent the hold outs are finally forced to figure out this "RSS stuff".

    Posted by: kellan | October 15, 2004 3:48 AM



  • Fred - Google their name to find their blogs.

    But yeh sorry, I was too lazy to link everybody :-) Besides, I've linked to most of the people on that table before and I'm sure they don't need any extra links from me ;-)

    Cesar, you're absolutely right I think. I noticed some of those names before too and they're gone from my subscriber list now. Looks like some person(s) was gaming or just plain experimenting with the Bloglines system.

    kellan, those are good theories. I'd be interested in hearing others too.

    Also, Cristian points out that Feedburner offers a good service for stats-tracking of feeds. I'm going to check that out. And Lilia has some interesting thoughts too.

    Posted by: Richard MacManus | October 15, 2004 9:23 AM



  • Kellan's theory kinda makes sense, except I believe most regular readers of my weblog would have switched to Bloglines before my hiatus. My take-away from this is that people actually stumble upon old content, which is heartening as far as I am concerned.

    I recall the first few weeks before my entry into blogging were spent mostly reading stuff that was up to one year old.

    Posted by: Seb | October 15, 2004 10:51 AM



  • Richard, very interested to hear what you think about FeedBurner after you get a chance to check it out. Shoot me an email if you have any questions or would like to know more before you try it. Happy to help!

    Posted by: Dick Costolo | October 16, 2004 2:33 PM




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