This week will be awash with coverage from the CES 2006 show in Las Vegas (International Consumer Electronics Show). I'll be quaffing down any interesting news about Web-based media and gadgets, along with feasting on my staple Internet bigco diet of Yahoo, Google, Microsoft, Apple. Bill Gates (MS), Terry Semel (Yahoo) and Larry Page (Goog) will all be speaking at CES this year.
The NY Times thinks the theme of this year's CES will be 'Convergence: This Time We Mean It.' But it's obvious Web companies and Internet-connected gadgets will play a bigger part in CES this year, than in previous years. The AP is running a story which illustrates that:
"Yahoo and rival Google Inc. will make their CES debuts with keynote speeches, muscling their way into the high-stakes battle already begun by computing stalwarts, consumer electronics giants and telecommunications companies to push digital media deeper into homes.
With the Web poised to become an increasingly dominant distribution method for movies and television, the Internet giants, along with Microsoft Corp.'s MSN, could very well be the ABC, NBC and CBS networks of the digital age, said Tim Bajarin, an industry analyst with Creative Strategies."
For extensive coverage of CES, I recommend paidcontent.org and CNET's colorful subsite - "CNET editors cover the best of CES". Here at Read/WriteWeb I'll be focusing specifically on the intersection of Web technology and media at CES (my theme in general this year).
Yahoo will broadcast a reality tv series called "Wow House" on their Web portal within the next few months. The SF Chronicle calls it an early step in Yahoo's ultimate goal to create television of the future. Wow House has a technology focus, as families participating in the show compete to outfit their homes with $10,000 worth of the latest electronics - such as theater systems, high-definition televisions and stereos. Viewers vote for which family wins, via the website. Revenue will come from advertising and probably product placement.
The most interesting part of this news for me is how tv production for the Web is different than traditional 20th century television. As Ira Kurgan, chief business officer for Yahoo's media group, noted in the SF Gate story: most original tv programming on the Yahoo portal "will be in short form, in bites of only a few minutes, which makes them quick to download and more digestible for people who are multi-tasking." This fits in with the microchunking philosophy of the Web - e.g. blog posts and personalized websites such as Amazon. In 2006 microchunking will increase as structured blogging and similar initiatives take off.
Also, who will create the new generation of Web tv programming? While traditional tv and cable companies will surely develop shows in partnership with Yahoo, it's how Yahoo incorporates user-generated videos that will be most fun to watch. If Peter Jackson, who hails from my hometown of Wellington in New Zealand, can make it in Hollywood - I wonder what other far-flung video-making talent is waiting to be discovered, this time on the Web?
How is tv on the Web different? It will obviously need to be interactive, as SF Gate notes:
"Simply streaming video online isn't enough, analysts said. Chat, sharing and interactive advertising need to be incorporated into the picture to make the experience more compelling than simply watching traditional television."
Factors such as broadcasting to multiple devices (tv, PC, mobile, etc) will come into play, not to mention the challenge of earning revenue on the Web. RSS will probably be a part of it too, as RSS Applied notes:
"I can see something similar to iTunes, but open, that would allow free subscription to your favorite shows with links to the show's site at the end of each show. Of course, the site and the downloaded episode would be monetized with advertising. And, maybe on the site you could choose to download the entire season (before it was released episodically) for a fee without ads."
It's all very promising and I'll be tracking the progress of Web television here on Read/WriteWeb.
Looking at the media year ahead, the LA Times christens Google the new 800-pound gorilla - and also the Big Bad Wolf - of the media business. It's an extraordinary article that predicts mega-billion dollar wheeling and dealing in the media industry in 2006. Here are some highlights relating to Web companies:
LA Times suggests that Google PCs, running a Google OS, will be sold in WalMart stores for "perhaps as little as a couple of hundred dollars". This rumor has been going on for at least the past year, so 2006 may well be when it comes true. A more fun prediction is "Google Cubes", which will be a "small hardware box" for transferring music, video and other digital files between a computer and TV set.
LA Times has fun with several outlandish acquisition theories for Microsoft. First they say that Microsoft may offer to buy Yahoo for $80-90 billion. I think this is extremely unlikely, but the LA Times assures us there's a more realistic option: Microsoft "could buy Barry Diller's IAC/InterActiveCorp at a fraction of the price." I guess... but wait, there's more. Later in the article there's a suggestion that Microsoft may pursue "a jewel like Time Warner". Hmmm, well there wasn't much sparkle in that jewel for AOL.
Frankly I have a hard time believing Microsoft will spend billions of dollars on media companies, when history suggests they acquire less high profile companies and build on top of them. I expect them to do the same in the media sector. So I'm not sure where all this mega-acquisition speculation comes from - other than the fact that Microsoft has $40 billion in cash lying around.
No mention of Apple products, just the usual celebrity fawning over Steve Jobs - who will apparently "demand a seat on the Disney board". Yawn.
As idle speculation goes, this is actually fairly logical:
"Former ABC executive Lloyd Braun, who was hired by Yahoo more than a year ago to oversee the Internet leader's foray into original programming on the Web, will exit after clashing repeatedly with Silicon Valley's laid-back culture."
A more exciting story though is this: Braun triumphantly marries Yahoo's technology and media strategies together and Yahoo takes its destined place as the 5th network. That's my prediction - but if it doesn't come true I can always sell the movie rights ;-)
LA Times also predicts Yahoo will buy Viacom, which owns MTV and a raft of top entertainment brands. Now that would be a great buy!
Finally a rather unfair jab at Rupert Murdoch by the LA Times. They suggest Murdoch will "continue to be at the forefront of the major media giants' push into new media", however "his short attention span will begin to get the better of him". Hey, just because he's Australian... :-)
Overall a hugely entertaining article by LA Times and I'm sure at least some of it will come true!
The Internet Stock Blog asks: "Is it possible that if Yahoo is the new Internet media leader with RSS, etc. and Google is the leader in search, that Apple will own rich media?"
Well 'own' is too strong a word, but I do know I'll be paying much more attention to Apple this year than last. With iTunes and the recently video-enabled iPod, Apple is in a strong position to lead the way in delivering microchunked entertainment media over the Web to consumers. I expect all the main players (e.g. MS, Yahoo, Goog, AOL) to increase their presence in rich media in 2006 though, including releasing Internet-connected media devices a la Apple.
Update: Chris Garrett left a great comment that is worth highlighting: "If they release the expected media center mac mini they would also have a strong basis to develop a suite of rich media applications, hopefully incraesing the visual offerings of iTunes and maybe even expending it into a platform for streaming TV. They could develop this into a form of subscription TV, free of ads. If this happens we might start to see specialist channels becoming more conspicuous and possibly the rise of Indie Television."
Think Secret has more on this: "Apple is planning to unveil a robust new content distribution system in January at Macworld Expo alongside its revamped media-savvy Mac mini, Think Secret has learned. The new content system and related media deals, which will include feature-length content, expanded television offerings, and more, will further cement Apple's increasing lead in digital media delivery.
