In our previous post we reviewed the Web trends of 2006, noting trends such as the hyper-growth of social networks, the push of RSS into the mainstream, consumerization of the enterprise, and the continued rise of the read/write Web.
In this post we look forward to 2007 and ruminate on what trends will be important over the coming year.
- RSS will go mainstream in a big way next year - not only integrated into Microsoft's new Vista OS, but also fully integrated into Yahoo Mail when it comes out of beta (the Ajax version). Plus we expect some of Google's RSS experiments to come into play more in 2007 - especially Google Base, which uses an RSS variant called GData. In addition to all this, new and interesting (if not overly innovative) services will be built on top of RSS - e.g. the Techmeme RSS Ad-delivery.
]]> - Related to the above, structured data will be a big trend next year - see our post on Google's structured data play from September this year. What will be particularly interesting to watch is how microformats, the Web community's open standards for structured data, will fare. At this point, it looks like Google is forging ahead with its own structured data standards - and largely ignoring microformats. Although both Microsoft and Yahoo have shown some support for microformats, is it enough to stop Google?- Widgets exploded in 2006 but will continue rising in 2007 thanks to blogs and social networks like MySpace. MyBlogLog is an example of what we'll see more of, but also look out for more e-commerce and multimedia widgets.
- Web Office continues to ramp up. Especially watch Google and Microsoft battle it out in this domain. The smaller startups (Zoho, Zimbra, ThinkFree et al) will continue to innovate and there may even be acquisitions by the big Internet companies.
- The consumerization of the enterprise trend will start to infiltrate corporate IT, in the form of web-based office apps and more collaborative systems. Virtual solutions (teams and offices) that deliver high productivity at lesser expenses, will be hugely popular - for example SKY-click. Corporate blogs will continue to proliferate, although there may be more controversy to come in this area (think sensitive information leaked on corporate blogs).
- Rich Internet Apps will be a major force in 2007 (a continuation of the Hybrid web/desktop apps theme we focused on this year). In particular watch out for Adobe's Apollo platform, but you can be sure that Microsoft will also be very active in this domain with its Windows Presentation Foundation. Also in the mix will be Laszlo with its open source OpenLaszlo platform. The general trend going on here is that platforms that leverage both the desktop and the Web will be compelling next year, in terms of offering rich functionality that usually can't be found on purely browser-based apps.
- On the other hand, Google in particular will continue to push the boundaries of browser-based apps. Ajax is known to have its limitations, so some people have been wondering what will be next after Ajax? But also 2007 may be the year that rich web apps using vector graphics (VML/SVG)+AJAX make an impact.
- Semantic Web products will come of age in 2007. Make no mistake (to use presidential language), the Semantic web is coming - particularly with the work of companies like RadarNetworks and Metaweb. We think companies like that will come up with the plumbing to help generate RDF based on HTML.
- Amazon Web Services were a surprise hit in 2006 - and expect more big things from Amazon next year, to fill in the stack and to provide the foundation for a Web/Amazon WebServices-based OS. We also think there will be moves toward an Amazon-like web services stack from other players, particularly Google. For example Google may want to catch up with Amazon's S3 - EC2 services. And where Google goes, you can expect Microsoft to go too.
- Expect some shakeups in the online advertising market next year. AdSense will have some competition, in the form of MSN AdCenter and Yahoo's advertising platform.
- Also due to ongoing issues with (CPC/PPC) online advertising, there's a real need for a better, more robust online ad model - perhaps something more than CPA. So watch out for developments in 2007 along those lines.
- 2007 will be about Search 2.0 and the rise of the vertical search engines. However don't expect Google to lay down and do nothing - they will counter the verticals. Google Code and Health are two early examples of Google's response. Also note that Google is moving towards being a more meaning-based search engine. For instance, when you enter a company name in Google, the first result not only returns the homepage of the company but also some semantic meaning extracted from the website. And the right bar of SearchMash (Google's test search site) shows that Google is planning more features.
- Microsoft's Windows Live services will gain real momentum next year, thanks to Vista and also Live services going out of beta and usurping their MSN counterparts (e.g. Windows Live Mail taking over Hotmail).
- WebOS /GoogleOS: To counter the Vista and Windows Live threat, Google may come out with some form of GoogleOS. This is contentious, but one theory is that if Vista's default services (Live.com) can put pressure on Google, then we may see a Google optimized Linux .
- In line with this, Open Source Desktops will continue to gain momentum in '07. Red Hat and Novell will bring out new versions. Linux Desktops are getting more fun with 3D effects and KDE4 (Plasma) and AIGLX - Xgl and Beryl - Compiz technologies. But can they compete with new Vista and expected web operating systems?
- Browser War II. In 2007 expect the competition between IE7 and FireFox (plus Flock, Opera and Maxthon) to be intense. Perhaps we'll even see a G-Browser? Stranger things have happened.... or will Google continue to utilize Firefox as its cover? The latter is more likely, as Google does not want to seem too distracted with operating systems and browsers; this would be a bad signal for the NASDAQ investors.
- Speaking of browsers, 2007 will see an increase in WebKits. Adobe's Apollo will be WebKit based, enabling developers to ensure Safari compatibility as well as other browsers. We also think the Konqueror browser of Linux/KDE will drop its KHTML engine in favor of WebKit. So expect Safari compatibility to rise sharply in 2007.
- Internet-based TV will ramp up in 2007, thanks to products like Brightcove and whatever Google does with YouTube/Google Video. Also we'll see more of Interactive TV (iTV etc). On this theme, the Venice Project (from the founders of Skype) promises free TV all around the world.
- Mass adoption of IPTV technology in 2007 and Bittorrent will be an important part of the online video landscape too.
- P2P: With Azureus and BitTorrent, P2P got approximately $30M funding for 2007. So 2007 will undoubtedly be a good year for P2P. It will get more accessible and we'll probably see web based P2P interfaces. Bittorrent has already become a major part of most connected software. For instance, DemocracyPlayer - an IPTV client similar to Venice Project - had an embedded bittorrent client. Bittorrent will probably continue to be embedded in many new apps in '07.
- Virtual worlds: SecondLife will become an important platform for marketing, promotion, and of course social networking - as people and businesses figure out different uses for it. Also we think SecondLife will continue its expansion worldwide. Currently you can find Habbo and SecondLife cards in most supermarkets (Wallgreens, CVS) in the US, so this trend should continue in other parts of the world. In short, virtual worlds will become an integral part of the real world in 2007.
- Virtual Money: Paypal showed the way, and we're seeing more of it now - SecondLife LindeX, Microsoft points etc.
- The online real estate market will grow rapidly in '07.
- The search for disruptive business models will continue! :-) In other words, free consumer web apps still need to find a business model.
- While social networks dominated 2006, we wonder if the amount of time an average user spends online will start to negatively impact on their social lives in 2007 and lead to a downturn. Could social networks prove to be anti-social? ;-) At the same time, social networks will probably also become more open - and data portability will start to occur, although MySpace will hold out. See also widgets above.
- International Web will finally start to get its due in mainstream media (or maybe this is wishful thinking). China in particular is a hot market right now, but as Keith Teare observed on R/WW recently, it is still early days and the revenues are not big at this point.
- OLPC: One Laptop Per Child will create good buzz and may increase the adoption of thin-client like computers (internet and web apps dependent) and Linux for the mainstream. See also Web Office above, which may find its true niche in non-traditional markets which can't afford Microsoft Office.
- Broadband continues to grow: For example Fiber Connections in France. There will be similar baby steps towards faster internet all around the world. After all, the broadband revolution created web 2.0, Google and web apps. So it's worth following this trend!
- VoIP space will really hot up. Skype and a bunch of new competitors will compete and potentially disrupt the telecoms industry.
- Mobile Web may be the big story of 2007 - certainly in China, Korea and Japan; but perhaps even the US and other 'behind the times' places like New Zealand and Australia. Related to this is that online/offline mobile technologies like Smartpox may become more popular in the West (they already are in Asia).
- Mobile will be a bigger development and advertising platform in '07 (jajah mobile etc).
- Also watch for an emerging Webphone market - for example Apple's rumored iPhone and a GooglePhone.
Courtesy of mobile Web expert Rudy De Waele, here are 10 specific trends for mobile Web in '07:
Whew! There are a lot of predictions in this post, but of course we've probably just scratched the surface. We'd love to hear your own Web predictions for 2007. What have we missed? Please leave a comment and/or participate in our poll.
]]>
Ed's note: unfortunately there are two separate digg entries for this post. This is the other one, which has more votes at this time:
http://www.digg.com/tech_news/Web_Predictions_What_Will_Come_in_2007
Upcoming.org, Flickr, Yahoo! Tech, Yahoo! Local all use various microformats extensively.
Then there are companies like Apple which uses hCard in their new .Mac address book as an internal structured data format.
Google is an aggregator much more than a publisher. They'll aggregate structured data in whatever form it is significantly available or lose the advantage to new services (like Edgio) which tap into the richness of that data.
Their structured data approach is, if I'm not mistaken, about centralizing data in gBase. The trend for some time, and one which seems to be accelerating, is to move data out of its silos, to the edges of the web, and let services agregate that and do cool stuff with it.
As huge as Google is, I don't think they can reverse this trend (and indeed the core of their DNA is distributed data and services based on that, not centralized data silos. )
Walled gardens of data are over. Microformats only accelerate a long standing trend.
]]>Still a great job though...very comprehensive.
www.jollyjo.org
]]>Details ..........
]]>Don't you think it's about time E-commerce starts to take advantage of these trends, as well as Web 2.0 trends in general like social websites?
]]>Also Carsten #4, I also agree with your points about OpenID and ClaimID. I've lumped that into the term "data portability" and extended our section on social networks too (see 'Consumer Apps').
]]>Adrian #9 said: "Hmmm...nothing really new...just a lot of growth and improvement expected from whats out there already. Really expected something to jump up and grab me....hmmm!"
Richard sez: Well this goes back to my theory that web 2.0 is an evolution, not a revolution. Web development in this era is all about iterating -- and I think that's also true of high level trends. And personally I thought our predictions on googleos and P2P were pretty big. But your mileage may vary.
And certainly I encourage the brave souls amongst you to make BIG BOLD predictions, here in the comments ;-)
John Doe #12 asks for details: "Break down your prediction to who is making what claims or what group. I would like to see details. The predictions are also to vague. For example, some of these predictions are commonsense."
Richard sez: Well actually I thought the post was quite detailed! :-0 I don't think they're vague, although I admit we probably have a bob each way on a few of them (RIA vs browser-based apps for example) :-)
]]>Flash 9, using Actionscript 3, is NOT an incremental upgrade. It's set to change the very basis of how we think about the Internet as a platform. Considering how much it had to play in the success of many social networking sites (paticularly YouTube) it deserves more credit. Now it has things like fullscreen, a free compiler, and a library called Flex specifically for developing applications.
It's what Java and AJAX are supposed to be, only it has far more potential.
]]>You can acces to your data everywhere and share budgets with other people
]]>In Second Brain we are betting on a combination of RSS feeds, integration of multiple web-services and online storage. And we think any online application needs to have a basic social layer to be successful.
]]>1. Online Video/TV
2. Browser based apps
3. Mobile web
4. RSS, Blogs, Wikis
5. Vertical Search
I name hot companies in each of these areas on my blog. http://dondodge.typepad.com/the_next_big_thing/2006/12/2007_prediction.html
Don Dodge
]]>These guys will take the mobile advertising market to the next level, and seem to have the best range of services.
]]>... with which, for the first time in history (as can be seen in the white paper posted at MatchTo.com and pending patent #11/250,908), advertisers of all sizes and advertising expertise will be able to quickly and easily reach their most desired customers by selecting and bidding on these customers actual traits and characteristics (keytraits); instead of settling for trying to indirectly and problematically reach them merely through the words they enter into little search boxes...
The only real question left as 2006 comes to a close is this:
Will it be Yahoo, MSN, AOL, Ask/IAC, NewsCorp, Google...or a qualified, forward-thinking VC, company, or other entity which will be the benefactor of bringing this next multi-billion dollar/year PPC ad platform to the national and international marketplaces?
]]>1) Atomization: 2007 will see the acceleration of content/functions/applications atomization (decentralization) via the adoption of multiple syndication methods like RSS, XML and APIs.
2) Verticalization: The success of generalist social networks and online video sites in 2006 means that we will see the arrival of a multitude of new specialized players in these two fields.
3) RSS: a clear business model for RSS will emerge.
4) Local will become more social / Social will become more local.
5) Traditional Media will continue to realize that they desperately need to capture eyeballs online, leading to more online acquisitions and/or investments.
6) Long distance & local calls will continue their move towards free.
7) Traditional media will create SEO job positions.
8) Video Monetization: a clear business model will emerge.
9) The proliferation of destination sites without clear business models will lead a lot of them to adopt the B2B business model.
]]>If only I could subscribe to them using LiveFeed in FireFox 2.0. ForeFox cant display feeds at your site, though this is a browser problem that should be solved by FireFox people. I think it would be great if you provide a Feed URL that can be understood by all popular sites.
]]>Mark
]]>Such an example is groundworkeopensource which we support in australia.
This is a real alternative to the likes of IBM, HP , CA , BMC etc for those companies that cannot afford all the bells and wistles but require a solid and reliable monitoring solution.
I see this space moving up the line in 2007 as well as it taking some of the space in the ITIL compliance stacks.
We are looking at SOA open source testing tools as well as they are key to the drive in 2007 for Enterprise ready integration in Asia Pacific.
]]>Downside of the 2007 Upside
http://alwayson.goingon.com/permalink/post/8356