Comments for 2008 Web Predictions

2008 Web Predictions

2007-12-24T07:19:00Z

What Web applications and trends will make it big in 2008? In this post the RWW authors ruminate on the current trends in Web technology and look forward to what 2008 might bring us. Topics include Google, semantic web, online advertising, recommendation systems, Facebook, digg, open standards, Mobile Web, search engines, and much more!

So check out our predictions for '08 and please contribute your own in the comments. Also you may want to review our track record for 2007 Web predictions.

]]> Richard MacManus, Editor, ReadWriteWeb:

1. Semantic Apps will become popular in 2008, due to their ability to get better content results and make better data connections. Think search engines like Hakia and Powerset, wikipedia-like efforts like Twine and Freebase, and apps that use semantic technologies under the hood (such as AdaptiveBlue and Snap).

2. In tandem with #1, Google will experiment more with Semantic Apps in '08. The Knols project, although not overly semantic, is a hint of this direction.

3. Web Services platforms will be a fierce battleground in '08, with Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Mozilla and others competing to provide 'Web OS' and online storage to consumers. Unfortunately this may spell the end of a number of startups in this space.

4. Zoho and/or ThinkFree will be acquired by big companies wanting to leapfrog into the Web Office space.

5. The online advertising market will consolidate, after the spate of acquisitions in 2007. CPM will continue to dominate for media brands and CPC for niche sites, although there will be experimentation in VRM and other forms of highly specific targeting of ads. Privacy issues will prevent the latter from becoming mainstream though. The much-hyped CPA (Cost per Action) will continue to be a pipe dream, because publishers simply don't want it.

6. The big Internet companies will surprise us all by embracing open standards, and attempting to compete with each other with features instead of data lock-in (OK, this could just be wishful thinking!).

7. The most interesting innovations on the Web in 2008 won't happen in Silicon Valley, but in Asia (China, Japan, Korea). At least one startup from China will break through in the US market with Twitter-like success in 2008 - and it will almost certainly be a Mobile Web app.

Marshall Kirkpatrick, Lead Writer, ReadWriteWeb:

1. Twitter will be acquired.

2. Most ad networks will start producing their own content to advertise against; and some content companies today will get acquired by ad networks.

3. Online video will become so ubiquitous, including live and mobile, that everyone will wonder how the internet existed without it. It won't feel like a big deal, though.

4. A handful of big companies will let you start logging in with an OpenID associated with your account.

5. The value of recommendation engines will become all the more clear; the era of data will be celebrated.

6. People will rebel against Google, at least a little bit. Maybe.

7. People engaged in the new web will do some really awesome stuff that we'll all be in awe of.

Josh Catone, Lead Writer, ReadWriteWeb:

1. Tumblr will be acquired.

2. Privacy will be a growing concern in the mainstream, but ultimately people won't really take any action and for the most part, things won't change. Some companies and groups (think Mozilla) will push for better privacy controls for users, while others (think Facebook) will continue to push the envelope and continue down a slippery slope. Users will eventually push back, but I am hesitant to say that proverbial "straw that breaks the camel's back" will come in 2008.

3. OpenID will be adopted by more startups and larger web companies, but most people (mainstream users) still won't use it - that's a couple of years off.

4. Facebook will continue to grow and their platform will be adopted by other large social networks. Google will sweat.

5. Mobile web usage will be a big story in 2008. It's already big in many parts of the world; and Westerners are about to get hooked. With new mobile devices that makes web surfing less painful, people will be more and more connected away from their computers.

6. Mainstream media coverage will be a catalyst for the adoption of Web Office apps by consumers; and Microsoft will eventually be forced to change their Web Office strategy and offer a fully online office suite (but that latter won't happen in 2008). Offline mode (Gears, AIR, Silverlight, etc.) will be what really tips the scales and causes mainstream users to to embrace the as-of-yet unfamiliar world of Web Office applications.

Alex Iskold, Feature Writer, ReadWriteWeb:

1. 2008 will be slow and cautious, with the first half dominated by recession or fear of recession.

2. Facebook is going to see the same kind of decline in popularity in 2008 that MySpace saw in 2007.

3. Digg is going to be acquired by one of the mainstream media conglomerates.

4. Implicit applications, which monitor our habits and automatically infer our likes, will rise.

Emre Sokullu, Feature Writer, ReadWriteWeb

1. Facebook will acquire companies that do the following, in order to strengthen their advertising unit: personalization, behavior tracking, image recognition (Riya?)

2. Facebook will release a browser.

3. However, despite all that... Facebook will decline.

4. Google OpenSocial will be a failure; Google will try to create its own social networking empire by making acquisitions in this space.

5. Microsoft will become more aggresive and buy many popular companies at once (remember Ballmer's quote). Candidates include SixApart, Technorati.

Sean Ammirati, Editor, ReadWriteTalk (our podcast show):

1. Google will really start looking vulnerable in 2008. While the 'one trick pony' comment by Steve Ballmer drew sarcastic responses, this will begin to look prophetic. While they'll maintain market share in the search industry, the lack of traction in any other of their other initiatives will start to cause frustration. Plus, they will increasingly be perceived as the 'evil' company in many of these new initiatives.

2. Closely related, Yahoo's Hack strategy (see ReadWriteTalk's podcast with Bradley Horowitz) will start to bear fruit and things will look much more optimistic in Sunnyvale this year.

3. Facebook will start to feel pressure from two trends that will emerge on the web: distributed social networks and distributed commerce systems. For distributed commerce systems, look to see a first proof of concept from the VRM project. Chris Messina's diso project with Wordpress will be a great proof of concept for distributed social neworks.

4. Non-search advertising on the web will increase in value significantly. This will be done through a lot of innovation in the ad targeting systems (both behavioral and contextual) and new metrics being adopted by Madison Ave beyond CPC and CPM.

5. There will be a lot of innovation in the hyper-local space, putting the final nail in the newspaper industry's coffin. This will include companies like Outside.in and Yelp moving toward widespread use and new web properties (from both startups and big Internet Cos) emerging.

6. Finally, a 3G iPhone! OK, I don't know if this is a prediction, but I really really want it to be true :)

Charles Knight, Editor, AltSearchEngines (RWW network blog)

1. In the 1st Q 2008, the true "Google Killer" in search will be in Stealth Mode. In 2nd Q 2008 the first prototype will begin in closed Alpha mode. In 3rd Q 2008 it will be ready for the final closed Beta testing. In 4th Q 2008 it will launch and "Rock and Shock" the world!

2. The classic Vertical Search Engines (Job Search, Health, Consumer Electronics, Shopping, Video, People, more...) will continue their dominance over all other Search Engines in their various niches.

3. The Alternative Search Engines will pick up the pace of partnerships and cooperation, for their solid mutual benefit.

4. Mainstream Media interest in the Alts will increase until it begins to rival coverage of the five major search engines.

5. The trend towards 'widgetization' of the Alts will continue. Approximately 2 in 10 Alternative Search Engines (20%) have widgets now, and that number will double in 2008 to 4 in 10 or 40%.

Conclusion

Now it's time for you to tell us your Web predictions for 2008. Please leave a comment or trackback below!

Crystal Ball image by Blue Cubic Electron Syncrony, via Flickr

Comment from Predictions08 on 2007-12-24

2007-12-24T09:46:34Z

if you want more tech predictions for 2008 follow http://twitter.com/predictions08 on twitter

Comment from Varun on 2007-12-24

2007-12-24T09:53:48Z

1. Microsoft must buy Zoho but Google will buy Zoho
2. Riya will be a hit in late 2008. And I'll able to find some resembling me on this earth
3. Google and Wikipedia will be in Mexican-Tradeoff
4. Gmail will be available offline too

Comment from Intercon on 2007-12-24

2007-12-24T09:59:35Z

Nobody will buy Zoho. Let's see in 371 days from now.

Comment from Thierry BEZIER on 2007-12-24

2007-12-24T10:26:01Z

Hey Richard, I have been working in Asia in the past 4 years in Internet companies... and if there is something I can tell you... they don't give a crap about europe and the us market, because they care too much about rentability and income, there is so much things and a so huge market to conquer in Asia that they won't spend time on our "tiny" market... many years ago they had a netvibes like, a flickr like... but they never launched it over there cause there was no business model and no ways yet to monetize that... Look at what happen to Cyworld in the Usa...

about the semantic web I remember that they told me the samein 2006...still waiting for it... what I'm sure about 2008 is that anything can happen.

Comment from Thijs Terlouw on 2007-12-24

2007-12-24T11:41:45Z

Thierry; you are wrong. Just take a look at the recently released http://www.qqgames.com/ page by Tencent (Chinese internet company famous for QQ). They are definately targetting the US market.

Of course the Chinese (or Asian) market is most important, but their attitude is definately not like "don't give a crap about europe and the us market"

Comment from Dan Blank on 2007-12-24

2007-12-24T13:35:14Z

Richard, Marshall, Josh, Alex, Emre, Sean and Charles: thanks for a great 2007!
As far as the predictions go, I can't help but think about what each means in terms of the evolving behavior of web users. How will the average person, use the web in 2008.

My predictions:

Way more cute cat videos on the web.
Google will become ubiquitous in more services because people like it's little log drawings. They will also become a superpower, and start buying islands.
Fewer blogs, but more vlogs. Mostly of people baking.
The word "lywhilting" will become the buzzword of 2008. But no one knows what it means yet.
Michael Jackson will begin blogging, and stage a huge comeback as the world hangs on his every word through hourly blog updates. School and job attendence will plummet.
Virtual knitting will see many aggressive services and startups trying to claim this space online.
We will go into a painful economic recession, but will quickly brought under control once America Idol comes back on the air.

Thanks!
-Dan

Comment from Peter Cooper on 2007-12-24

2007-12-24T14:03:27Z

I'm going with Marshall and Alex's predictions, which I think are pretty much on the ball. I disagree with most of Richard's, mostly because they're too optimistic. I definitely can't see the semantic Web catching on at all (heck, RSS has barely caught on) or a Chinese company making it big in the West. We shall see!

My personal suggestion would be that bespoke apps for vertical markets will become even more popular, now that they are so many rapid Web app development systems out there. Various memes will be started, none of which we can predict now, and by the end of the year we'll be using some word or phrase we've not heard of yet. There will be a major death or two, a few companies will surprisingly go out of business, and there will be several new successful companies that will come as if out of nowhere. So.. the same as 2005, 2006, and 2007 really ;-)

Comment from Brian Eboner on 2007-12-24

2007-12-24T14:24:49Z

I guess there will be less web-apps, the weakest ones will disapear. Tools like Wrike will grow and probably they will integrate this even bigger tools.

Comment from Intercon on 2007-12-24

2007-12-24T14:35:56Z

About a Chinese company making it big in the US, probably not.

But US traffic metrics are important for Chinese companies to seek after, for a lot of compete.com-equiv's nearly only profile companies based on US-centric traffic.

Comment from Kristopher Tate on 2007-12-24

2007-12-24T14:42:48Z

2008 is going to be a big year in that you will see a push from Asia in the area of integrating Web with Mobile. We're already working on empowering people in this exciting direction.

http://jp.blognation.com/2007/12/09/zooomr-conquering-the-world-from-japan/

kristopher

Comment from Intercon on 2007-12-24

2007-12-24T14:48:19Z

Semantic Web will take off in 2008, actually, will be big time.

Comment from Sameer on 2007-12-24

2007-12-24T16:45:58Z

1. The blogging bubble will burst in 08. Networks and established bloggers will continue to do well however a lot of unique voices will recede to becoming a par time journal, much like they started out in the first place. Blogging full time will only be for the best and fortunate few.
2. Aggregators and distillers will break through. It's the year for services such as Tumblr and FriendFeed that help manage the madness.
3. Web 2.0 applications will start to look to the Enterprise for a viable business model.
4. Semantic applications will get measured visibility. Adaptive Blue that focuses on specific solutions are best positioned. Don't expect a generic semantic application to make a big splash.
5. Twitters fate? A purchase will be attempted. However, the price will largely depend on how well Google monetizes YouTube and Digg and possibly Technorati's purchase price. These stories will tell how well Twitter can be monetized.
6. IM and SMS carriers will face increased pressure to open up their systems.
7. No material impact on Google's dominance or the privacy issues its facing. Google will continue to bury those stories by banging out very useful features for the mainstream users.
8. RSS - If it's marketed in its current form, will see little increase in mainstream adoption in 08.

Comment from That Single Guy on 2007-12-24

2007-12-24T17:57:18Z

My prediction:
The interwebs will die due to too much pr0n. Goodbye.

Comment from Cole Chip on 2007-12-24

2007-12-24T19:43:33Z

"1. In the 1st Q 2008, the true "Google Killer" in search will be in Stealth Mode. In 2nd Q 2008 the first prototype will begin in closed Alpha mode. In 3rd Q 2008 it will be ready for the final closed Beta testing. In 4th Q 2008 it will launch and "Rock and Shock" the world!"

Can you say "SearchMe"?

Comment from TrueMan on 2007-12-24

2007-12-24T20:39:30Z

1. Concentration of wealth will grow.
2. Zoho will not be bought but they will survive on their own.
3. Digg will be acquired by News Corp.
4. Techcrunch will lose its credibility against ReadWriteWeb & Gigaom due to facebook PRs and being a paid site for big companies and VCs.
5 Google OpenSocial will eat facebook apps somewhere in Q2 2008.
6. ReadWriteWeb will start a new section for online / offline apps like ZDNET.
7. Amazon will sponsor RRW for helping them launching new products - You guys are honest in your posts, no sarcasm here.
8. People will realize that Semantic web is not for 2008 but for 2010.
9. We will see more use of Microsoft Silverlight in rich media apps.
10. We will see more bootstrap startups defeating the idea that successful business needs VC money.
11. Bill G will retire and developers will mourn - no sarcasm.
12. The author of dailyapps.net will join RRW.
13. We will see more and more specialized small products and companies like octazen.com
14. Lead Gen / Affiliate network industry will prosper due to higher cost of search advertising.
15. People will be more smarter to not post comments on any random blog posts since they will feel more competition in what they will be doing and think of posting comments as a waste of time unless bloggers are using kyte like service which allows realtime interaction.
16. Facebook VCs will force Zuck to step down as CEO and he will step down.
17. Amazon will release a full-blown distributed DB product against MS SQL and Oracle.
18. Yahoo will continue to release products sooner than bloggers can write them and will realize that's a bad idea in Q4 2008.
19. Startup pitch with words like "changing the way", "helping customers / consumers", "revolutionary", "a unique product", "allows you" will be considered as humor words. Entrepreneurs will be more humble and welcoming their customers in the time of fierce competition.
20. Newspapers will adopt new technology (outsourced or in-house) and manage to survive their market share. Everybody will fight to retain their users and tools / products in this space will take greater market share.

Comment from Alan Wilensky on 2007-12-24

2007-12-24T22:13:06Z

Peter Cooper is so right on and taking this prediction mania in a new direction:

Verticals are the next phase, as real, service economy business cross the web 20 chasm. These are not mere punditry and prognostications, but the truth.

The industry has spent the last two years or so making and breaking a catalog of office 2.0 applications, and ways of connecting them. Also, basic grid computing initiatives have had more time to get their language bindings debugged.

Mobile portals, easier startups, and real applications for small and medium business, with the power of applications that used to require big boxes and expensive software.

Thanks Peter cooper, would you like to help me start ThruDispatch? http://www.squidoo.com/ThruDispatch

Comment from Chris Messina on 2007-12-24

2007-12-24T22:24:47Z

Interesting list — will be very interesting to do an evaluation at the end of 2008 to see how accurate you are... funny too that no one made predictions about RRW in 2008!

Also, I just want to amend Sean Ammirati's generous mention of DiSo... while I'm certainly involved and helping (hoping!) to lead the charge, Steve Ivy has been putting in a great deal of work so far and deserves credit for naming the project and providing the impetus to get things off the ground. Since then we've had some great folks join the project, including Will Norris and Stephen Paul Weber, and I'm exciting to be working with such an awesome group that seems hell-bent on figuring this stuff out!

Comment from Lew Moorman on 2007-12-24

2007-12-24T22:59:05Z

Search wars will get serious. Google is valued at $3bn per % of share. Many will go after it. Wikipedia will get the most traction at Google's expense.

The ad model will show its limits. Free simply will not work for serious services and will bankrupt many web 2.0 startups.

Like the move from B2C mania to B2B obsession of 1999, Enterprise 2.0 will be big as web 2.0 fades.

Cloud computing will be big but will hurt the Internet giants as they face the huge capex, lots of people and low margins associated with it (and totally unlike their core businesses).

Apple will continue to thrive hitting 10% PC share in the US. However, they will not dethrone Blackberry in the smartphone market.

"Services" will be the word of the year as all successful products will actually be services (a la iTunes/iPod and Kindle/whispernet).

Comment from Carlos Leyva on 2007-12-24

2007-12-25T01:12:05Z

I think that 2008 might be the year where the most interesting story about technology will come from businesses that are using it, rather than developing it, to transform their own respective industry sectors.

There are any number of "platform businesses" that will emerge on the cloud that have nothing to do with "social networking." The real revolution will happen when main street starts innovating...what Doc Searls has called the "because of" factor.

Comment from phil shapiro on 2007-12-24

2007-12-25T03:09:28Z

Thanks for the prediction. I'm getting a growing feeling that YouTube will reach a billion video views per day in 2008. If you extrapolate current growth rates for YouTube, that milestone is either going to happen in 2008 or in early 2009.

Comment from Jeff Crites on 2007-12-24

2007-12-25T03:26:51Z

Carlos, post 19, I think you're spot on. So much emphasis is put on the "what's coming", when what we "already have" has yet to be implemented by a sizeable percentage of Main Street. Hyper Local will be big, as more and more small businesses come on board the New Web.

Personally, I think 2008 will be the year of the 'Idea', as thousands and thousands of innovative lightbulbs that are on dimmer mode are switched to full brightness via Open Innovation platforms and Idea Portals (employee and consumer).

Comment from Dr.Mani on 2007-12-24

2007-12-25T04:12:38Z

Not a 'techie' set of predictions, but these were my insights about 2008 in a blog post earlier this month:

Dr.Mani’s Crystal Ball - Predictions for 2008
http://MoneyPowerWisdom.com/drmanis-crystal-ball-predictions-for-2008/

Merry Christmas :)

All success
Dr.Mani

Comment from keanu on 2007-12-24

2007-12-25T06:38:15Z

1) current successful chinese internet companies are never innovative. they only copy US model into china, because VCs like this. so don't expect an original innovative biz model from China will influence western world within 3 years.

2) why no one makes prediction on virtual world?

Comment from aw on 2007-12-25

2007-12-25T13:27:01Z

1. Microsoft must buy Zoho but Google will buy Zoho

"must", good use here.

"why no one makes prediction on virtual world?"

Actually, I don't think virtual world we be ready in 2008.
They've got a long way to struggle.

The most possibilities for them is the invention of new interactive devices. Mouse and keypad is not enough.

Comment from Mark Evans on 2007-12-25

2007-12-25T14:44:14Z

A Facebook browser? Sounds good to me:

http://markevanstech.com/2007/11/21/the-facebook-browser/

Comment from TELEVISION ≥ º on 2007-12-25

2007-12-25T16:07:21Z

Twitter will probably be bought by Amazon or Google, I'd put my bet on Amazon.

Comment from Anon on 2007-12-25

2007-12-25T16:33:29Z

I think we will see the Google stock falling by at least 20%. It is valued too high, and the investors will realize it.

Comment from gregory on 2007-12-25

2007-12-25T16:38:06Z

i agree with the economist, the web is going to slow down, too much traffic

Comment from Kyle on 2007-12-25

2007-12-25T16:38:25Z

Hm, twitter will probably be bought by Amazon - and ProjectSpot.net will become the new way for people to advertise their websites and creations. Who knows?

Comment from GetMoreReviews on 2007-12-25

2007-12-25T16:41:39Z

Google will take a nose dive this year!

Comment from Wirah on 2007-12-25

2007-12-25T17:02:06Z

facebook will die within the next 2 years

Comment from Mike on 2007-12-25

2007-12-25T17:26:53Z

Google will buy Amazon, or vise versa.

Comment from Sheridan Tatsuno on 2007-12-25

2007-12-25T18:19:10Z

1. 2D/3D interfaces will emerge, combining the best of 2D pages and virtual worlds, which will create an explosion in new types of personal pages, ads, social networking, and blogging. Think metaphorically of Woody Allen's "The Purple Rose of Cairo" where the actor steps into the flat screen.

2. Hybrid WiFi/cellular phones, combined with Google and other new cellular carriers, will challenge the business model of wireless carriers over time.

Comment from newton pda on 2007-12-25

2007-12-25T19:11:02Z

5. Microsoft will become more aggresive and buy many popular companies at once (remember Ballmer's quote). Candidates include SixApart.

LOL. noone will give livejournal to MS

Comment from Gunnar Andreassen on 2007-12-25

2007-12-25T19:52:05Z

Semantic Apps and open standards seems pretty sure predictions. Your Web OS prediction is a great idea too, but '08 too early?

Comment from Jay on 2007-12-25

2007-12-25T21:22:01Z

a meteor will crash into the earth causing a breakdown of the internet...everyone will be free once again.

Comment from Joe Duck on 2007-12-25

2007-12-25T21:32:17Z

2008 will be the year where regular folks start to understand and discuss the inevitability of conscious, machine based computing - likely to arrive in about 15 years - and the high likelihood that this will profoundly impact and restructure human civilization.

Comment from Joe Hunkins on 2007-12-25

2007-12-25T21:32:50Z

Comment from Marqs on 2007-12-25

2007-12-25T22:11:02Z

in 2008 monigo.com will conquer the World.

Comment from Joseph Stalin on 2007-12-25

2007-12-25T23:37:25Z

I predict..Pres. Bush will fall off his bicycle and have a massive
head injury and be unable to complete his term in office and
will be replaced by Bob Dole.
Women will rise up against the pain of high heeled shoes
and exclaim if I were a Lesbian I wouldn't have this foot
pain, now would I?
Jeb Bush will be elected to dog catcher in Palm Beach but he
will live next to Rush Limbaugh.
Glen Beck will be confronted with all his disinformation by
a gang of angry democrats, and they will demand he show
his special Morman underpants to his audience or be deported to Argentina to join other conservatives from 1945.
The Price of Gas will rise to $4.49 a gallon but Limbaugh will claim that adjusted for inflation, its more like 39 cents a gallon, winning the praise of Steve Forbes.
It will be disclosed that Rush Limbaugh is actually the love child of Herman Goering and an American Nazi.

Comment from Mr. Negative on 2007-12-25

2007-12-26T02:12:49Z

The recession will expose the current web as the Land Without A Business Plan. VCs will pull back funding, advertisers will leave in droves, and pretenders like Facebook will implode without users who actually pay for services.

WoW will survive, and everyone will come to their senses and realize that subscription models are necessary.

We'll all think, Web 2.0 was Web 1.0 with tinsel.

Comment from Michael Molin on 2007-12-25

2007-12-26T02:44:38Z

My project will be implemented by Microsoft. Apple will follow.

Cell Computer Project

Best wishes,

Michael

Comment from Mike Reynolds on 2007-12-25

2007-12-26T04:45:51Z

It's great that the authors put their predictions in this one post. In order, here's who I agree with most:

#1 Alex Iskold
#2 Richard MacManus
#3 Sean Ammirati
#4 Josh Catone
#5 Marshall Kirkpatrick
#6 Charles Knight
#7 Emre Sokullu

My reasons can be found at:
http://schlerplotti.typepad.com/quantworks/2007/12/comments-on-rea.html

Comment from Youpark on 2007-12-25

2007-12-26T05:09:33Z

I think mobile there will be a considerable outgrowth of mobile web, besides that Google will keep on going especially with Android.

Comment from anonymous on 2007-12-25

2007-12-26T05:50:47Z

sadly, the author(s) failed to use any links to descriptions of the new developments they describe. that just poor blogging and they should know better.

Comment from rajab on 2007-12-25

2007-12-26T07:26:44Z

1. Amazon and IAC could bring surprises.
2. The smaller players are gonna call the shots.
3. Mobile apps will initiate the process of replacing the desktop apps.
4. Social networking will be heading for something revolutionary.

Happy New Year!!

Comment from srini kumar on 2007-12-25

2007-12-26T07:52:30Z

John Edwards will be elected President of the United States of America in November 2008. :)

-s

Comment from Karthikeyan on 2007-12-26

2007-12-26T10:36:28Z

I work for US company in India.

In 2008 , due to USA recession,
Indian companies will loose the profit.
Reliance company will grow more and more.
More than IT india will be hub for the manufacturing units of mega companies in US.
Pollution will increase,cost of living will increase.

From IT front

1) Google will start feeling the heat of other search engines.
2) zoho will be more popular
3) Web 2.0 will fall and people will start 3.0 or something.0
4) Social networking will re-shape
5) Microsoft will buy more companies
6) Google release its mobile phone
7) IBM will buy SUN

Comment from esvl on 2007-12-26

2007-12-26T12:10:30Z

George bush will start world war 3 and try to control the internet like they do America.

Comment from Josh Catone on 2007-12-26

2007-12-26T16:42:07Z

@Anonymous #45: Er, how do you propose we link to the future? ..... ;)

Comment from Donkey on 2007-12-26

2007-12-26T18:08:37Z

Steve Jobs will make a presentation with something new - a Nike logo on his turtleneck.

Comment from Mauricio Godillo on 2007-12-26

2007-12-26T18:17:46Z

Hello.
Our web page will be the best search engine to internet users whose search companies e-catalogs.
Don't forget: www,catalogosenlinea.com A different way to see your business.

Comment from MIke Riversdale on 2007-12-26

2007-12-26T19:47:09Z

My predictions:

1. Online persona/identity will become key to those wanting to grow (Google, Facebook and everyone else) - we will all worry and blog about what it mans for the future of the world. Nothing will change.

2. Companies/organisations/agencies IT Departments will struggle with "Enterprise 2.0" infiltrating in as the young 'uns "just do it".

3. The USA Election will change the way politics in that country is fought with the Internet (Web) becoming the primary battle ground. The fall out from this will be substantial and I suspect YouTube/Google will do very well out of it.

4. Mobile web. The battle ground isn't on the "PC" and this will truly become apparent towards the 2nd half of 2008 as more countries implement the ability and make it cost effective for you & I to dump the "PC" and carry it all around in our pockets. Microsoft will do well out of this ... and then so will Google.

5. The music industry will start it's final battle for survival ... it may survive 2008 but I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't. The movie industry will be next and it'll change VERY quickly once movie theatres get connected.

Comment from Joseph Pally on 2007-12-26

2007-12-27T05:28:01Z

The calculations regarding any companies that Google may buy will be done using Microsoft Excel.

The contracts will be created on Microsoft Word.

And the presentation will be distributed as Powerpoint presentations uploaded to Google Show - and totally messed up.

Steve Ballmer will still be smiling at these Web 2.0 apps trying to update the screens through AJAX.

Comment from Johan Ronnestam on 2007-12-26

2007-12-27T06:55:33Z

Posted my predictions with a trackback, but didn't see it here. So, here's the link

http://www.ronnestam.com/2007/12/27/my-predictions-for-2008/

Comment from Mindaugas on 2007-12-26

2007-12-27T07:08:49Z

I hoppe Twitter just dies - it was the star of the moment, but is just a waste of time otherwise.
I also hope (very much) that Google will get some competition with Google Aps - although the Aps are a wonderful project, their development is just too slow! I am especially looking forward for a replacement of the Google Page Creator, which is just something almoust from the XXth century.

Comment from ZaLab on 2007-12-27

2007-12-27T11:39:10Z

Hope that many open projects are made by asian developers, especially korean.

Comment from iKnow! on 2007-12-27

2007-12-27T13:33:56Z

The beginning of the social learning revolution

Comment from sam on 2007-12-27

2007-12-27T15:58:37Z

curious - does anyone know of any company (in launch or planning that you can disclose) that matches buyers/sellers of tradesmen services - there are a few small startups in the UK doing this dont know of USA or elsewhere in the world. I see this model taking over from traditional classified in a big way in 5 years.

Comment from Jared on 2007-12-27

2007-12-27T16:33:28Z

I think one major point missing from the list is the viral spread of widgets as a viral advertising platform. Companies like
Clearspring with their widget analytics will certainly emerge as powerhouses in the coming years.

Comment from Elisha on 2007-12-27

2007-12-28T03:43:14Z

I expect that Semantic Apps will have better technology this 2008. Great compilations of 2008 predictions here. Very useful indeed.

Elisha
Administrator
Credit Card Rewards - Credit Card Reward Programs - Rewards Credit Card

Comment from Venkatesh Nandakumar on 2007-12-28

2007-12-28T09:29:55Z

No one here has heard of Google's Orkut??

Comment from Sam Lawrence on 2007-12-28

2007-12-28T19:35:46Z

Hi Richard,

I think we'll see some big unification from Google in 2008 that combines their utility apps with their social apps (under "Google Sites").

Plus, I think the big meme next year will be "Attention Streaming."

I just posted more on all this (Jive's 2008 predictions--which even includes one about Read Write Web) here: http://tinyurl.com/3xvx4n

Cheers,
Sam

Comment from Daljit B on 2007-12-28

2007-12-28T19:51:45Z

Great list of predictions. I picked out the growth of video and the damage to Google's reputation in my list of likely developments in 2008. There seems to be little agreement on the future of Facebook and I don't think 2008 will give us a clear answer to that question one way or another.

Comment from Wayne Anderson on 2007-12-29

2007-12-29T17:30:36Z

Some more 2008 predictions...

1. Year of the Mobile Platform, yet Mobile and Desktop will happily co-exist...simply because of the different screen sizes.

2. Ultrawideband will finally arrive, eliminating more wires and enabling wireless transfer of HD video content around the home and office.

3. The difference between a "search engine" and a "see engine" will be explained - maybe here at RRW.

Comment from Wayne Anderson on 2007-12-29

2007-12-29T20:13:58Z

Oops...I meant 'RWW' in the above post

Comment from Mike Riversdale on 2007-12-29

2007-12-30T01:09:10Z

Sam: Yes - here in New Zealand a family member runs the BuildersCrack (terrible name but useful and successful service) that links you and I with local builders (and the like) - http://builderscrack.co.nz

Comment from barbara on 2007-12-30

2007-12-30T13:23:38Z

@sam: in Germany it's http://www.my-hammer.de/ (even worse name)- but I don't think that will be 2008.

Comment from juan monino on 2007-12-30

2007-12-30T19:06:23Z

I predict corruption scandals will hit Giulanis campaign, Mitt will quit after super-tuesday, Mc Cain will be nominated

I predict fierce war between Hillary and Obama with one winner: Edwards

Economic turmoil will hit US economy because the decline in property values, foreigns will condition their investments in US to a more moderate spending, conservatives will be outraged even though they caused it and dollar will plummeted.

Frustrations due to the economy and the Iraq war together with the instigations from irresponsible radio talk show hosts will make the US public more anti-hispanics blaming the weakest for all bad news, in several states we will see extreme measures against immigrants, even acts of violence against people from different nationalities, even with US born people that looks "latino" or "ilegal alien"

In Pakistan we will see a military intervention due to political unrest, I can envision a civil war.

Bush very weak during 2008, and alone

Comment from Wayne Anderson on 2007-12-30

2007-12-30T20:09:01Z

Bush was the right guy at the right time, but as Bill Belichick says after just completing a perfect NFL season -"we need to turn the page and move on".

Comment from Ajay Mishra on 2007-12-30

2007-12-31T01:27:41Z

Clintons will be back in the Oval Office.

IBM will buy SUN.

Google wont buy a media company.

O'Reilley wont coin the Web 3.0 -> someone else will.

Paris Hilton wont get more coverage (provided the folks in media stick to their new Year resolutions)

Google will launch CPX ( X = call.. or something else)

Social Networking will reveal its Ugly head. A know B knows C -> wont really mean A can Date C's cute friend. And, no, A is drinking Coke, wont be *read* by C's friend.. let alone "ka ching' ..

My company will be launched. And Well, I will add one more year to my age ( Jan 1 is my b'day) :) -- This is my CYA prediction - it should work ..

PS: After Nov. people will forget about Bush. Bush's legacy. And Bush would be embracing Crawford. No news. The Internets :) et all..

Cheers and Happy New Year to all

Ajay

Comment from Eric Locken on 2007-12-30

2007-12-31T02:30:38Z

I predict the following:

1.
WikiaSearch will be launched and start to erode Googles domination in search.

2.
Microsoft will start buying big with a purchase of either Yahoo or Amazon. They will also make some other major purchases possibly Twitter, Facebook or Digg.

3.
Google will launch a major auction company to rival eBay.

4.
My book Net Success Interviews www.interviewbooks.com will become a best seller (hopefully).

Comment from Edmund Wong on 2007-12-30

2007-12-31T04:10:20Z

1: Due to USA economy recession, less VC fund for startups.

2: China's VC fund will increase steeply. Virtual world and mobile 3G apps will be high-flyers.

3: Facebook's traffic will decline at Q3-4 2008.

4: Twitter will be acquired.

5: P2P traffic will continue to decrease, because more full-length (and high quality) videos will be uploaded on video-sharing sites.

6: Killer apps in mobile phones will be built based on Google's Android.

7: More startups will use Amazon S3.

8: Orkut will go nowhere.

9: Yahoo! will have another year of disappointing performance.

10: Digg will be acquired before June 2008.

Comment from XOOST.com on 2007-12-31

2007-12-31T08:47:04Z

Thank you for publishing again this year the "Web Predictions". I like that a lot.
My Comments:
1. Semantic Web / Search 2.0 / Collaborative Search.
Yes, this tool will definitively grow, the path is clear. But I don't know whether the 2008 will be the "mainstream" year yet. Maybe, maybe not. 50%/50%. I still see some delays in getting the "wow effect" operating model. For sure we at Xoost will continue to work hard on this direction and improve our platform continuously, also thanks to the feedback of our users.
2. Twitter. A sure hit also in 2008. When I first used it (abt 6 months ago) I said: what's this weird mix between chat/myaspacecomments, why r people using it, where's the value? But then, a tried it again, started to play with it and now..I'm completely addicted..!! I think the key is the "Kiss" factor for them: Keep It Simple.. great!
3. Facebook. 2007 was no doubt the FB year. I agree they may lose some ground in 2008, I hear many comments of people complaining abt the pollution on the site/useless apps, wasting time on FB...But they will not go out of business in 2008. Absolutely not. Those guys are proven smart. They will continue to take the lead in terms of innovative ideas in the online social networks business. If they will buy Twitter they make a great shot.
4. Google. They amaze me. Never saw such a fast & furious (and winning) "brand extension" strategy before in business. I think in 2008 they will focus on taking the lead in the Mobile market. Fight with Nokia/MS/Apple/and more..is hard, but still a solid 66% probability they will make it. Google guys love challenges, the like to explore always new frontiers, not being afraid of anything: that's their great value.
5. Yahoo!. A few words on my beloved Yahoo! I started on the web with Yahoo, I loved (and still love this company) but my question is: where do you wanna go? do you still have a mission? Why don't you consolidate all your web 2.0 units into a powerful one? Will this decline continue also in 2008? really hope not. Please, invent something. Buy Twitter.
6. Amazon. Bezos did a fantastic job in 2007, sure. He is leveraging well the core assets of Amazon and driving the company more and more on the tech side of the equation. A repeat winner.
7. Microsoft. still there, big.

!!! Wishing you a very Happy New year 2008, full of INNOVATION, wherever it will come from !!!

Comment from Arne on 2007-12-31

2007-12-31T09:14:46Z

Hi Marshall and Alex,

Thanks for your predictions!

Marshall, you talk about the value of recommendation engines. Does this complement Alex's statement about implicit applications, which monitor our habits and automatically infer our likes? Does it mean that StumbleUpon is heading for a fine 2008?

Tomorrow, tomorrow, I ... ;-)

Comment from SteveN on 2007-12-31

2007-12-31T17:13:07Z

Speaking my hopes rather than perceptions, I want Apple to move through its Starbucks and Fox piloting to full flown mobile transaction/financial software to replace Quicken once and for all. My money "all looked over by Appleware of amazing grace"—to rip off Richard Brautigan.

Comment from Jo on 2007-12-31

2007-12-31T17:28:39Z

web2.0 25 hot issues in 2008

Semantic Apps will become reality: Hakia, Powerset, Twine and Freebase
Widget will prevail. Me Portal(Personalization). Widget Economy
Web services, utility computing, web OS, web office: MS, Google, Amazon, Salesforce, Zoho, Thinkfree
Mobile web and mobile SNS:
Rich Internet Applications: Google Gears, AIR, Silverlight
Online Video. Broadcasting.
Local Service and Community: Yelp, Topix
New advertising model: CPA, Video Ads, User Generated Ads
Long tail will be more fat to become body. More professional bloggers.
Vertical Social Network
Social Network grows to make Social Web
Social power in all applications: social shopping, social search, social ads
Power shift from Content/Data to People: more user centric applications
Mashup, Programmable, Linked web
Open application platform will be common bringing more innovative services. New ecosystem enabler
Trust and reputation platform as another web ecosystem enabler
Identity is big thing: OpenID, MS Cardspace, Google profile
Virtual World (Metaverse) turns to Real World. More vertical Virtual World services.
More open source applications and activities
More vertical search engine: People, Local, Video, Health, Mobile
Innovative services from outside Silicon Valley
MS+Yahoo+Facebook vs. Google+Amazon or eBay + Skype + Myspace
Twitter, Facebook, Google, netvibes, blinkx, powerset, thepudding, meebo, wikia, joost, youtube, apple, second life
Android, Gphone, Social Search, Video Search, Kindle, Knol, iphone 2, OLPC
More Web2.0’s impact on ordinary life and business. More companies will adopt web2.0 (enterprise2.0)

Comment from Larry on 2007-12-31

2008-01-01T05:33:21Z

Google will enter into a steep but gradual decline from 2008 onwards.

People will forget George W Bush, Google, and many other icons/words starting with G.

Comment from Jonathan Trenn on 2008-01-02

2008-01-02T19:51:25Z

Guess I'm the first to comment here in 2008.

Some predictions:

1) Businesses finally begin to make their marketing departments digital ready as they realize their customers are using media quite differently from what they were doing just five years ago. But they'll find that there’s no easy answers as that media usage is now completely dispersed. Many of these attempts will have traditional types run the outfit and they'll try to implement old methods online. Others will be led by "new marketers" who’ve swallowed too much Kool Aid and they'll forget that, yes, people still watch TV and read newspapers.

2) There will be at least three major social media marketing mistakes that will get major attention. One of them will likely involve a major political candidate or a major advocacy group. One the commercial side it will once again involve a fake blog or some sort of false effort. On the political side, it will underhanded and dirty - and it will be discovered before Election Day.

3) Internet video phone services like ooVoo.com (a client of mine) really begin to take off because they are now lightweight and easy to use. People will want to go beyond simple text of IM or just voice. Expat communities and small sales teams will be particularly enthusiastic about it. Oh, and teens.

4)A company will create a suite of web-based social networking software that will include a blogging platform, photo editing, video producing and editing, podcasting, etc.

While blogging may tail off, quality blogging will not. But the integration of video editing and podcasting can be difficult for people. After this year, less so.

5)Speaking of elections, 2008 will be the (hopefully) last traditional broadcast-TV focused presidential election.
Despite some real breakthroughs, most political digital types have yet to be given a seat at the table. That's because many campaign pros have are pompous asses with big egos who are in fact terrified of doing anything new and will always choose TV first. Mainly because that's how they make money. They will primarily see the internets, those series of tubes, as a means to get cash from us from online fundraising.

6) Conversion attribution becomes a big bone of contention. What is conversion attribution? It sort of goes like this. When we buy something for the first time, it is often because we've been influenced by several marketing messages from different channels. In the online arena, with often little measurable sense of exactly what made someone buy, but an (almost) exact sense of where someone came from (a search? a banner?) conversion attribution. It basically is the call for the revenue from an ecommerce transaction to be dispersed amongst the marketing channels according to some sort of formulaic attribution system of that tries to weigh the influence of each channel. It makes sense in theory but, to me, is mostly a crock in practice. It's proponents argue that the 'last click thru' shouldn’t get all the credit for the sale.

But a lot of money is at stake and theres gong to be a demand to share. You can be on it. There may be wars over this one.

7) Women will be a major force in the success of social networking. More often than not, men are early adapters, while women are more cautious. But women seem to use the internet more for social reasons. We'll see some significant success stories from social networks that are either specifically designed for or are primarily geared to women. And they won't tolerate being overly marketed to or egregious violations of their privacy.