2007 Web Predictions
Written by Richard MacManus, Ebrahim Ezzy, Emre Sokullu, Alex Iskold and Rudy De Waele. Also John Milan wanted to contribute, but unfortunately got caught up in the Seattle storm - so best wishes to John and all our Seattle readers.
In our previous post we reviewed the Web trends of 2006, noting trends such as the hyper-growth of social networks, the push of RSS into the mainstream, consumerization of the enterprise, and the continued rise of the read/write Web.
In this post we look forward to 2007 and ruminate on what trends will be important over the coming year.
RSS, Structured Data
- RSS will go mainstream in a big way next year - not only integrated into Microsoft's new Vista OS, but also fully integrated into Yahoo Mail when it comes out of beta (the Ajax version). Plus we expect some of Google's RSS experiments to come into play more in 2007 - especially Google Base, which uses an RSS variant called GData. In addition to all this, new and interesting (if not overly innovative) services will be built on top of RSS - e.g. the Techmeme RSS Ad-delivery.
- Related to the above, structured data will be a big trend next year - see our post on Google's structured data play from September this year. What will be particularly interesting to watch is how microformats, the Web community's open standards for structured data, will fare. At this point, it looks like Google is forging ahead with its own structured data standards - and largely ignoring microformats. Although both Microsoft and Yahoo have shown some support for microformats, is it enough to stop Google?
- Widgets exploded in 2006 but will continue rising in 2007 thanks to blogs and social networks like MySpace. MyBlogLog is an example of what we'll see more of, but also look out for more e-commerce and multimedia widgets.
Enterprise
- Web Office continues to ramp up. Especially watch Google and Microsoft battle it out in this domain. The smaller startups (Zoho, Zimbra, ThinkFree et al) will continue to innovate and there may even be acquisitions by the big Internet companies.
- The consumerization of the enterprise trend will start to infiltrate corporate IT, in the form of web-based office apps and more collaborative systems. Virtual solutions (teams and offices) that deliver high productivity at lesser expenses, will be hugely popular - for example SKY-click. Corporate blogs will continue to proliferate, although there may be more controversy to come in this area (think sensitive information leaked on corporate blogs).
Web Development
- Rich Internet Apps will be a major force in 2007 (a continuation of the Hybrid web/desktop apps theme we focused on this year). In particular watch out for Adobe's Apollo platform, but you can be sure that Microsoft will also be very active in this domain with its Windows Presentation Foundation. Also in the mix will be Laszlo with its open source OpenLaszlo platform. The general trend going on here is that platforms that leverage both the desktop and the Web will be compelling next year, in terms of offering rich functionality that usually can't be found on purely browser-based apps.
- On the other hand, Google in particular will continue to push the boundaries of browser-based apps. Ajax is known to have its limitations, so some people have been wondering what will be next after Ajax? But also 2007 may be the year that rich web apps using vector graphics (VML/SVG)+AJAX make an impact.
- Semantic Web products will come of age in 2007. Make no mistake (to use presidential language), the Semantic web is coming - particularly with the work of companies like RadarNetworks and Metaweb. We think companies like that will come up with the plumbing to help generate RDF based on HTML.
- Amazon Web Services were a surprise hit in 2006 - and expect more big things from Amazon next year, to fill in the stack and to provide the foundation for a Web/Amazon WebServices-based OS. We also think there will be moves toward an Amazon-like web services stack from other players, particularly Google. For example Google may want to catch up with Amazon's S3 - EC2 services. And where Google goes, you can expect Microsoft to go too.
Search and Online Advertising
- Expect some shakeups in the online advertising market next year. AdSense will have some competition, in the form of MSN AdCenter and Yahoo's advertising platform.
- Also due to ongoing issues with (CPC/PPC) online advertising, there's a real need for a better, more robust online ad model - perhaps something more than CPA. So watch out for developments in 2007 along those lines.
- 2007 will be about Search 2.0 and the rise of the vertical search engines. However don't expect Google to lay down and do nothing - they will counter the verticals. Google Code and Health are two early examples of Google's response. Also note that Google is moving towards being a more meaning-based search engine. For instance, when you enter a company name in Google, the first result not only returns the homepage of the company but also some semantic meaning extracted from the website. And the right bar of SearchMash (Google's test search site) shows that Google is planning more features.
Microsoft vs Google
- Microsoft's Windows Live services will gain real momentum next year, thanks to Vista and also Live services going out of beta and usurping their MSN counterparts (e.g. Windows Live Mail taking over Hotmail).
- WebOS /GoogleOS: To counter the Vista and Windows Live threat, Google may come out with some form of GoogleOS. This is contentious, but one theory is that if Vista's default services (Live.com) can put pressure on Google, then we may see a Google optimized Linux .
- In line with this, Open Source Desktops will continue to gain momentum in '07. Red Hat and Novell will bring out new versions. Linux Desktops are getting more fun with 3D effects and KDE4 (Plasma) and AIGLX - Xgl and Beryl - Compiz technologies. But can they compete with new Vista and expected web operating systems?
Browsers
- Browser War II. In 2007 expect the competition between IE7 and FireFox (plus Flock, Opera and Maxthon) to be intense. Perhaps we'll even see a G-Browser? Stranger things have happened.... or will Google continue to utilize Firefox as its cover? The latter is more likely, as Google does not want to seem too distracted with operating systems and browsers; this would be a bad signal for the NASDAQ investors.
- Speaking of browsers, 2007 will see an increase in WebKits. Adobe's Apollo will be WebKit based, enabling developers to ensure Safari compatibility as well as other browsers. We also think the Konqueror browser of Linux/KDE will drop its KHTML engine in favor of WebKit. So expect Safari compatibility to rise sharply in 2007.
Multimedia
- Internet-based TV will ramp up in 2007, thanks to products like Brightcove and whatever Google does with YouTube/Google Video. Also we'll see more of Interactive TV (iTV etc). On this theme, the Venice Project (from the founders of Skype) promises free TV all around the world.
- Mass adoption of IPTV technology in 2007 and Bittorrent will be an important part of the online video landscape too.
- P2P: With Azureus and BitTorrent, P2P got approximately $30M funding for 2007. So 2007 will undoubtedly be a good year for P2P. It will get more accessible and we'll probably see web based P2P interfaces. Bittorrent has already become a major part of most connected software. For instance, DemocracyPlayer - an IPTV client similar to Venice Project - had an embedded bittorrent client. Bittorrent will probably continue to be embedded in many new apps in '07.
- Virtual worlds: SecondLife will become an important platform for marketing, promotion, and of course social networking - as people and businesses figure out different uses for it. Also we think SecondLife will continue its expansion worldwide. Currently you can find Habbo and SecondLife cards in most supermarkets (Wallgreens, CVS) in the US, so this trend should continue in other parts of the world. In short, virtual worlds will become an integral part of the real world in 2007.
- Virtual Money: Paypal showed the way, and we're seeing more of it now - SecondLife LindeX, Microsoft points etc.
Consumer Apps
- The online real estate market will grow rapidly in '07.
- The search for disruptive business models will continue! :-) In other words, free consumer web apps still need to find a business model.
- While social networks dominated 2006, we wonder if the amount of time an average user spends online will start to negatively impact on their social lives in 2007 and lead to a downturn. Could social networks prove to be anti-social? ;-) At the same time, social networks will probably also become more open - and data portability will start to occur, although MySpace will hold out. See also widgets above.
International Web
- International Web will finally start to get its due in mainstream media (or maybe this is wishful thinking). China in particular is a hot market right now, but as Keith Teare observed on R/WW recently, it is still early days and the revenues are not big at this point.
- OLPC: One Laptop Per Child will create good buzz and may increase the adoption of thin-client like computers (internet and web apps dependent) and Linux for the mainstream. See also Web Office above, which may find its true niche in non-traditional markets which can't afford Microsoft Office.
- Broadband continues to grow: For example Fiber Connections in France. There will be similar baby steps towards faster internet all around the world. After all, the broadband revolution created web 2.0, Google and web apps. So it's worth following this trend!
Mobile
- VoIP space will really hot up. Skype and a bunch of new competitors will compete and potentially disrupt the telecoms industry.
- Mobile Web may be the big story of 2007 - certainly in China, Korea and Japan; but perhaps even the US and other 'behind the times' places like New Zealand and Australia. Related to this is that online/offline mobile technologies like Smartpox may become more popular in the West (they already are in Asia).
- Mobile will be a bigger development and advertising platform in '07 (jajah mobile etc).
- Also watch for an emerging Webphone market - for example Apple's rumored iPhone and a GooglePhone.
Courtesy of mobile Web expert Rudy De Waele, here are 10 specific trends for mobile Web in '07:
- Flat fees will become more affordable bit by bit.
- Thus, more user-generated content will become available to the phone; opening the way for mobile users to start using new web/mobile 2.0 services on their phones, such as podcasting, RSS feeds, more user-generated content to upload and use.
- Big Media Youth Networks going mobile - MySpace, YouTube, MTV and many more players will resolutely go mobile; allowing users to upload pictures, videos and create/consume content straight from their mobile phones. And to share with friends (including mobile forwarding functionality).
- Mobile search - the big players will start positioning seriously in the mobile market (watch out for deals with carriers/operators and device manufacturers)
- Mobile ads - the market is growing at a rapid pace (just watch AdMob's ad views ticker box daily)
- QR codes will start to enter retail markets.
- Mobile image recognition will pop up in mixed marketing campaigns.
- Cell Phone memory card swapping - to exchange music/video files.
- Multiple network download hotspots become available in urban zones - enabling 'on the spot' mobile download and internet access possibilities via wi-fi/wimax/bluetooth/nfc/etc.... (all build in or available immediately)
- Rise of 'smart client' solutions, for convergence of content and application functionality on mobile devices in general.
Summary
Whew! There are a lot of predictions in this post, but of course we've probably just scratched the surface. We'd love to hear your own Web predictions for 2007. What have we missed? Please leave a comment and/or participate in our poll.
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Heh, awesome post. Digg it if you like: http://digg.com/tech_news/2007_Web_Predictions
Ed's note: unfortunately there are two separate digg entries for this post. This is the other one, which has more votes at this time:
http://www.digg.com/tech_news/Web_Predictions_What_Will_Come_in_2007
This company seems to have a technology to bring a Semantic Web alive - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quintura
man, incredible stuf! I like to read it in depth.
but I guess we will have a lot more in 2007!
Not much else to add to that comprehensive list. Though I think concepts like OpenID and companies like ClaimID will have a much stronger impact in 2007.
More and more people are becoming aware that it is important to have a strong identity on the web. Personal recruiters scan the web for new employees so it is beneficial those people know who you are and don't confuse you with the other guys sharing the same name.
@Carsten, so you think it's good? I don't think it's good unless everyone is in some level of wisdom. Your past may become a problem for you, it's better to have an opportunity to deny it. That's a privacy question.. I'm a supporter though.
@Emre: Yes, it is a privacy question. But social networks, Flickr, social bookmarking tools,... everything we call web 2.0, read/write web, whatever, prospers because people already give up their anonymity on the web. So people will find me and at least I want to make sure they don't confuse me.
Btw, microformats relate to this as well. It will become fairly easy to collect personal data and store it. Just have a look at hCards.
Oh, there are companies that offer help to delete unwanted pics, forum postings or whatever. Though I don't remember the name of the company.
@Carsten, yes but hCard (=microformats) gives nothing so special, but your Flickr, MySpace and others do. But the good point is that you have chance to deny them unless you don't use sth like OpenID.
You overlook Yahoo!'s significant use of microformats - it's much more than "microsoft show[ing] some support" (which at this stage has largely been notional.)
Upcoming.org, Flickr, Yahoo! Tech, Yahoo! Local all use various microformats extensively.
Then there are companies like Apple which uses hCard in their new .Mac address book as an internal structured data format.
Google is an aggregator much more than a publisher. They'll aggregate structured data in whatever form it is significantly available or lose the advantage to new services (like Edgio) which tap into the richness of that data.
Their structured data approach is, if I'm not mistaken, about centralizing data in gBase. The trend for some time, and one which seems to be accelerating, is to move data out of its silos, to the edges of the web, and let services agregate that and do cool stuff with it.
As huge as Google is, I don't think they can reverse this trend (and indeed the core of their DNA is distributed data and services based on that, not centralized data silos. )
Walled gardens of data are over. Microformats only accelerate a long standing trend.
Hmmm...nothing really new...just a lot of growth and improvement expected from whats out there already. Really expected something to jump up and grab me....hmmm!
Still a great job though...very comprehensive.
www.jollyjo.org
I've already been seeing a growing need/push, what have you, for the mobile internet and for sites, social or not, to work flawlessly with mobile devices. The last few projects I've done we've been focusing more and more on mobile devices and I think that will blow up big in 2007.
In fact... I read that Myspace has already announced a partnership with Cingular to include mobile access to a lot of stuff on myspace. No good for my blackberry on T-mobile, but facebook seems to work fine on my BB so - wait for everybody else to catch up to the idea. There's a big need for it now.
Article for Reference
Break down your prediction to who is making what claims or what group. I would like to see details. The predictions are also to vague. For example, some of these predictions are commonsense.
Details ..........
Hooray for RIAs and widgets!
Don't you think it's about time E-commerce starts to take advantage of these trends, as well as Web 2.0 trends in general like social websites?
John #8, *great* point and I have added Yahoo (and a link to your comment) into that section about microformats.
Also Carsten #4, I also agree with your points about OpenID and ClaimID. I've lumped that into the term "data portability" and extended our section on social networks too (see 'Consumer Apps').
@John.. details are coming and some of them are already covered (e.g google vs vista, browser wars, vertical search engines), it would be impossible to go into detail for each points here in one post.
Just want to address the slight criticism in some comments...
Adrian #9 said: "Hmmm...nothing really new...just a lot of growth and improvement expected from whats out there already. Really expected something to jump up and grab me....hmmm!"
Richard sez: Well this goes back to my theory that web 2.0 is an evolution, not a revolution. Web development in this era is all about iterating -- and I think that's also true of high level trends. And personally I thought our predictions on googleos and P2P were pretty big. But your mileage may vary.
And certainly I encourage the brave souls amongst you to make BIG BOLD predictions, here in the comments ;-)
John Doe #12 asks for details: "Break down your prediction to who is making what claims or what group. I would like to see details. The predictions are also to vague. For example, some of these predictions are commonsense."
Richard sez: Well actually I thought the post was quite detailed! :-0 I don't think they're vague, although I admit we probably have a bob each way on a few of them (RIA vs browser-based apps for example) :-)
I voted "other" in the absence of a Widgets option. Standardised or not, they are going to be big for client side aggregation a la Google personalised homepage.
As a concert promoter and on the road I'm seeing kushcash.com okay for me with paying from my phone to keep up with everything qwith what I do. The Japanese have been using mobile payments for years.
Myspace is turning spammy. I can see users getting sick of signing up for so many social networking sites.
How come everybody is ignoring Flash?
Flash 9, using Actionscript 3, is NOT an incremental upgrade. It's set to change the very basis of how we think about the Internet as a platform. Considering how much it had to play in the success of many social networking sites (paticularly YouTube) it deserves more credit. Now it has things like fullscreen, a free compiler, and a library called Flex specifically for developing applications.
It's what Java and AJAX are supposed to be, only it has far more potential.
Yeah I agree that RSS will be big. Probably plenty more mashups like http://www.dotso.com will appear.
Like to thanks dear editor for compailling this fantastic web predictions for the year 2007.This article feeds most of the questions in my mind.Still one imporatant querry is banging there,when will all major search engine providers stop free listings? Is it possible or a useless question?
Though this a comprehensive list of predictions, I expected more views on future of Blogging and effects of developing countries (due to increase in usage) on internet is adequately predicted.
"Web office continues to ramp up" is very probable, particularly now that companies are building platforms for them. Salesforce, NetSuite and WebEx have already announced specific platforms for CRM, collab and then new companies like Apprenda have announced intentions to release SaaS platforms for on-demand apps.
excellent article. Agree with Venkata on blogging. One example is a blog by Capgemini's CTOs which has regular posts on amny of the predictions listed here. Here's the link: http://www.capgemini.com/ctoblog/
In 2007 personal finance software (like microsoft money/quicken) goes online, with http://mo.neytrack.in
You can acces to your data everywhere and share budgets with other people
It is often usefull to muse.
However usually the best of new developments in any field come out of nowhere , are serendipity and are totally unexpected and therefore hard if not impossible to predict.
www.adgerlinux.com
In summary, whatever we're seeing right now will continue!
War between IE7 and Firefox? More like a rout. Unless some serious fixing happens with the new version of Internet Explorer, my prediction is that it goes the way of Netscape and the American Passenger Pigeon.
Thank you for this great analysis. You are doing a great job helping people understand what is going on in the internet business these days.
In Second Brain we are betting on a combination of RSS feeds, integration of multiple web-services and online storage. And we think any online application needs to have a basic social layer to be successful.
Richard and friends, Very comprehensive post and analysis. I agree all of those areas will be important for 2007. I did a blog on my top 5 picks for 2007, most of which line up with yours. They are;
1. Online Video/TV
2. Browser based apps
3. Mobile web
4. RSS, Blogs, Wikis
5. Vertical Search
I name hot companies in each of these areas on my blog. http://dondodge.typepad.com/the_next_big_thing/2006/12/2007_prediction.html
Don Dodge
Great insight. Regarding Mobile - Dont forget the other mobile advertising companies who look to be set for big things in 2007. Companies like http://www.thirdscreenmedia.com
, http://www.admoda.com , http://www.adultmoda.com
, http://www.enpocket.com
These guys will take the mobile advertising market to the next level, and seem to have the best range of services.
I like the notion, and you cover some good topics, but a lot of these aren't predictions. Google "may" come out with an OS? There "may" be acquisitions? Come on! If you're going to predict, predict!
Nice round-up, with an encouraging amount of overlap with my predictions at fabric of folly
@Emre #7: That's right, yes. Though it will be difficult. ;)
@Richard #14: Alright, noticed that. :)
The better, more robust online ad model which you correctly predict will arise in 2007 is this: Match Engine Marketing (MEM)/paid match...
... with which, for the first time in history (as can be seen in the white paper posted at MatchTo.com and pending patent #11/250,908), advertisers of all sizes and advertising expertise will be able to quickly and easily reach their most desired customers by selecting and bidding on these customers actual traits and characteristics (keytraits); instead of settling for trying to indirectly and problematically reach them merely through the words they enter into little search boxes...
The only real question left as 2006 comes to a close is this:
Will it be Yahoo, MSN, AOL, Ask/IAC, NewsCorp, Google...or a qualified, forward-thinking VC, company, or other entity which will be the benefactor of bringing this next multi-billion dollar/year PPC ad platform to the national and international marketplaces?
Alternative environments will continue skyrocketing. People don't understand web pages, but they do understand a game like the Sims or Second Life.
I've posted my top predictions for 2007 on my blog but here's a small taste. BTW, they're all around local search and social media as this is where my interest lies.
1) Atomization: 2007 will see the acceleration of content/functions/applications atomization (decentralization) via the adoption of multiple syndication methods like RSS, XML and APIs.
2) Verticalization: The success of generalist social networks and online video sites in 2006 means that we will see the arrival of a multitude of new specialized players in these two fields.
3) RSS: a clear business model for RSS will emerge.
4) Local will become more social / Social will become more local.
5) Traditional Media will continue to realize that they desperately need to capture eyeballs online, leading to more online acquisitions and/or investments.
6) Long distance & local calls will continue their move towards free.
7) Traditional media will create SEO job positions.
8) Video Monetization: a clear business model will emerge.
9) The proliferation of destination sites without clear business models will lead a lot of them to adopt the B2B business model.
tamago will emerge; then dominate in 08
Thanks for the great post.
I've got some ideas for 2007!
Hello!..
Your articles are Good Read.
If only I could subscribe to them using LiveFeed in FireFox 2.0. ForeFox cant display feeds at your site, though this is a browser problem that should be solved by FireFox people. I think it would be great if you provide a Feed URL that can be understood by all popular sites.
Nice post. But, you look to have covered just about everything possible. I believe that Mobile will be the next big thing as far as the web goes.
There is a company called Powerset, which is talking about Natural language search. Have a look at that. This type of search could just turn out to challenge Google more than Semantic Web or much earlier than semantic search. I think you profiled Hakia sometime back. I think Powerset should be on similar lines.
Checkout www.vaakya.com . Smart client based platform.
Hello, fantastic article but you really need to do something about your page printout in 2007. ( :
Your structured data / semantic web predictions might be met by RDFa, the W3C's draft for a generic microformats (aka data in HTML) standard. With some marketing help, in 2007, RDFa could unify and bolster data in HTML approaches beyond the ad hoc techniques marketed in 2006.
I think another area of significant importance is discovery. Repliqa launches this year, for example. I think as the web grows exponentially there will be more and more emphasis on discovery. Neil Rimer and Bijan Sabet, both interviewed at my blog recently, comment that it's "where it's at".
Mark
Good list. But, how long this 'beta' things will continue. My life becomes beta! We can say year 2007 will be year of web 2.0 beta.
Richard, I hope I may add my expectations of 2007, from a business perspective. Always great to read your postings, best wishes for next year. My internet meets business trends:
1. Consumerization, the adoption of consumer applications (on the web) within the organization, partly due to a new generation of 'digital natives' entering the workforce.
2. Finding information within the organization has become critical due to reorganizations and restructuring. Enterprise portals are starting to become mainstream.
3. Software as a service is becoming interesting enough for business. Translating processes in terms of services when it comes to software, becomes a natural behaviour.
4. Blogging and wiki become natural way to communicate within organizations.
5. Mash up, i.e. breaking up structures (all kinds, information, techniques, organizations) in little pieces and joining them in new meaningful ways, will remain the most dramatic and creative effect of this information age.
6. The world as a whole and the world of business becomes more and more 'real time'; steering the company will be more complex but also more direct.
7. Knowledge management becomes a focus point of management (instead of something academic). The way to organize it will be in terms of 'ownership', bottom up or horizontal, definitely not top-down.
8. Strategy has to be formulated in terms of stories that are credible, understandable and inspiring. Vision will become even more important than it already is.
9. Management of the social environment will start to become an important competence.
10. Work will be done more and more in virtual environments.
11. Virtual worlds and games are becoming ways to communicate in business. Closing the gap between virtual and real world.
12. Strategic issue will be how to organize 'structured chaos' in the company.
I think there is a growing trend in the infrastructure and services network management monitoring area using subscription based professional services built on core open source stacks.
Such an example is groundworkeopensource which we support in australia.
This is a real alternative to the likes of IBM, HP , CA , BMC etc for those companies that cannot afford all the bells and wistles but require a solid and reliable monitoring solution.
I see this space moving up the line in 2007 as well as it taking some of the space in the ITIL compliance stacks.
We are looking at SOA open source testing tools as well as they are key to the drive in 2007 for Enterprise ready integration in Asia Pacific.
Regarding the advertising sector's transformation, I offer my related prediction -- only one -- about the coming year.
Downside of the 2007 Upside
http://alwayson.goingon.com/permalink/post/8356