Comments for RWW Predictions: Browser Wars 2.0

RWW Predictions: Browser Wars 2.0

2008-09-08T08:41:27Z

This week we're running a prediction challenge, on the topic of browsers. Google's new browser, Chrome (our coverage), is sure to take market share from the existing players. So we want you to help us predict: which of the following browsers will lose the most share (in percentage terms) between August 2008 and December 2008? Internet Explorer, Firefox, Safari, or a tie or other? You can cast your prediction by visiting RWW Predictions. It'll be interesting to see what the ReadWriteWeb community thinks will happen!

]]> Fast Facts

Chrome has taken 1-2% share of the global browser market since its launch (NetApp)
IE has lost 4-5% share so far in 2008 (NetApp)
Analysts are skeptical of Chrome's adoption by enterprises, given its unproven "beta" status
IE had 72% share and Firefox had 20% share in August 2008
Microsoft and Mozilla recently launched browsers (IE 8 & Firefox 3) with similar features as Chrome

Click through to RWW Predictions to login and cast your prediction.

Note: On Monday afternoon the RWW Live crew will be discussing Chrome's impact on the browser market with 2-3 special guests. Be sure to tune in at 3:30 pm PDT Monday.

Comment from KenC on 2008-09-09

2008-09-09T19:47:55Z

This really should be WebKit-based browsers vs MSIE.

Comment from Avatar on 2008-09-08

2008-09-09T02:58:38Z

for those that say: google is just making too many web apps and that is why they will win should not forget about Windows Live Services. while they have a slow progression, they also had a 5 year roadmap (five waves). this year release, the wave 3 will sure put many things into perspective.

Comment from Ant2206 on 2008-09-08

2008-09-08T22:20:03Z

I agree with the first point that Steffan made. Firefox users already go out of their way to try something new, so they're the most likely to switch to Chrome. It's unfortunate, but still the most likely scenario. Both browsers appeal to the open-source 'have it my way' attitude. And when Chrome starts supporting add-ons, it'll take off.

Internet Explorer lost market share. But it lost a small amount if its MASSIVE market lead. IE is just part of the Windows package, it'll live on no matter how crap it gets.

In the end though, the vast majority of people aren't power users who are after the 'ideal' browser. They're just looking for something that opens up web pages and downloads stuff. Chrome, Firefox, Konquerer, Internet Explorer, Safari, Opera, all do that just fine.

Comment from Steffan Antonas on 2008-09-08

2008-09-08T16:33:37Z

A couple of things to consider:

1. Firefoxers are the more progressive users to begin with (and more willing to try new things) so you're going to see FF lose more market share in the short run as people spend some time feeling Chrome out. Short term usage stats aren't going to be as useful for this reason for judging "true" market share in Chrome's beta stage.

2. We can expect IE to lose more market share in the long run - although we in the tech community know and love Firefox, it's not a household name the way that Google is. People who are still in IE (booo hiss) might be more inclined to try Chrome because they trust the Google brand.

3. The rise of the Google suite of apps is something to watch - as people move to google apps, and away from Office etc, there will be a natural incentive to go Chrome too.

4. Looking forward to the first commercial versions of Chrome on mobile phones. That'll definitely shake things up.

Comment from fjpoblam on 2008-09-08

2008-09-08T15:43:45Z

IF chrome can pick up plugins and IF chrome offers a reasonable support community then I suspect it will bite into Firefox; else it will bite into IE. (As for Safari, I suspect Google will never get around to supporting Mac; as for Opera, Opera devotees are too die-hard to switch.)

Comment from Todd Andrews on 2008-09-08

2008-09-08T13:52:22Z

Chrome is taking over the world...at least you'd think so reading the blogs.

Comment from VitaminCM on 2008-09-08

2008-09-08T11:38:20Z

Be careful. Are all of those "users" and "switchers" real? I suspect that they are all tinkering to check out Google's new toy.
I installed it on 3 machines just to test drive the thing. That doesn't mean that I "Switched".
Let's wait a few months and recheck the actual usage volumes to see what the percentages actually become.

Comment from Mikołaj on 2008-09-08

2008-09-08T11:11:01Z

Google Chrome is quite interesting, but far from being able to replace Firefox. There are no extensions so useful in daily work and kind of Firebug included into GC is not sufficient and can't replace several others add-ons.

You've wrote about 72%/20% IE/FF share in August 2008. Well, here in Europe Firefox has much more % of market, i.e. in Poland Firefox community is really strong. Look yourself on current rankings of Polish Web - IE-based browsers have ~50.5%, Firefox-based ~42.2%, Opera-based ~7.0% and KHTML ~0.3% of market.

Comment from Wallen's on 2008-09-08

2008-09-08T10:48:43Z

It will be interesting to see what the wisdom of the crowd tell us. I'd say that Firefox users are already "switchers" so likely to loss more in relative terms.

I don't know if Chrome will become the standard browser - there is still a very long way to go - but if it does, by combining Chrome and the search engine, Google could potentially "takeover" the Web (http://tinyurl.com/5o8db4).

Comment from ChromeSpot on 2008-09-08

2008-09-08T10:46:24Z

This poll shows that the vast amount of people switching to Chrome are FireFox users:
http://chromespot.com/index.php/topic,173.0.html

I would expect this to continue and to a further degree once Chrome Plugins are launched. I also think that once Chrome comes out of Beta, you'll see the IE crowd start to migrate.

Chrome will win this war in the end because Google is in the process of building too many tools with too much leverage. Android, Gmail, Docs, Gears, etc... eventually they are all going to come together to create one synergistic, all encompassing entity that makes up what old fogies might refer to as "The New Windows".

Anyways, I'll be interested to see the comments here. Also, I want to invite people to come join our community at http://chromespot.com !

Comment from stetoscope on 2008-09-08

2008-09-08T10:05:37Z

Hey, funny post.
First I though that Chrome would take all. Eventually, I am not that certain that chrome will take a dominant position. PC and Mac dummies will stay stuck in IE and Safari. Geeks, will be faithfull to freeworld icon firefox... So I would bet that chrome would never succeed to reach more than 15% of the market... The problem is that I never win my bets!
http://tinyurl.com/633x4h