2008 Web Predictions
What Web applications and trends will make it big in 2008? In this post the RWW authors ruminate on the current trends in Web technology and look forward to what 2008 might bring us. Topics include Google, semantic web, online advertising, recommendation systems, Facebook, digg, open standards, Mobile Web, search engines, and much more!
So check out our predictions for '08 and please contribute your own in the comments. Also you may want to review our track record for 2007 Web predictions.
Richard MacManus, Editor, ReadWriteWeb:
1. Semantic Apps will become popular in 2008, due to their ability to get better content results and make better data connections. Think search engines like Hakia and Powerset, wikipedia-like efforts like Twine and Freebase, and apps that use semantic technologies under the hood (such as AdaptiveBlue and Snap).
2. In tandem with #1, Google will experiment more with Semantic Apps in '08. The Knols project, although not overly semantic, is a hint of this direction.
3. Web Services platforms will be a fierce battleground in '08, with Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Mozilla and others competing to provide 'Web OS' and online storage to consumers. Unfortunately this may spell the end of a number of startups in this space.
4. Zoho and/or ThinkFree will be acquired by big companies wanting to leapfrog into the Web Office space.
5. The online advertising market will consolidate, after the spate of acquisitions in 2007. CPM will continue to dominate for media brands and CPC for niche sites, although there will be experimentation in VRM and other forms of highly specific targeting of ads. Privacy issues will prevent the latter from becoming mainstream though. The much-hyped CPA (Cost per Action) will continue to be a pipe dream, because publishers simply don't want it.
6. The big Internet companies will surprise us all by embracing open standards, and attempting to compete with each other with features instead of data lock-in (OK, this could just be wishful thinking!).
7. The most interesting innovations on the Web in 2008 won't happen in Silicon Valley, but in Asia (China, Japan, Korea). At least one startup from China will break through in the US market with Twitter-like success in 2008 - and it will almost certainly be a Mobile Web app.
Marshall Kirkpatrick, Lead Writer, ReadWriteWeb:
1. Twitter will be acquired.
2. Most ad networks will start producing their own content to advertise against; and some content companies today will get acquired by ad networks.
3. Online video will become so ubiquitous, including live and mobile, that everyone will wonder how the internet existed without it. It won't feel like a big deal, though.
4. A handful of big companies will let you start logging in with an OpenID associated with your account.
5. The value of recommendation engines will become all the more clear; the era of data will be celebrated.
6. People will rebel against Google, at least a little bit. Maybe.
7. People engaged in the new web will do some really awesome stuff that we'll all be in awe of.
Josh Catone, Lead Writer, ReadWriteWeb:
1. Tumblr will be acquired.
2. Privacy will be a growing concern in the mainstream, but ultimately people won't really take any action and for the most part, things won't change. Some companies and groups (think Mozilla) will push for better privacy controls for users, while others (think Facebook) will continue to push the envelope and continue down a slippery slope. Users will eventually push back, but I am hesitant to say that proverbial "straw that breaks the camel's back" will come in 2008.
3. OpenID will be adopted by more startups and larger web companies, but most people (mainstream users) still won't use it - that's a couple of years off.
4. Facebook will continue to grow and their platform will be adopted by other large social networks. Google will sweat.
5. Mobile web usage will be a big story in 2008. It's already big in many parts of the world; and Westerners are about to get hooked. With new mobile devices that makes web surfing less painful, people will be more and more connected away from their computers.
6. Mainstream media coverage will be a catalyst for the adoption of Web Office apps by consumers; and Microsoft will eventually be forced to change their Web Office strategy and offer a fully online office suite (but that latter won't happen in 2008). Offline mode (Gears, AIR, Silverlight, etc.) will be what really tips the scales and causes mainstream users to to embrace the as-of-yet unfamiliar world of Web Office applications.
Alex Iskold, Feature Writer, ReadWriteWeb:
1. 2008 will be slow and cautious, with the first half dominated by recession or fear of recession.
2. Facebook is going to see the same kind of decline in popularity in 2008 that MySpace saw in 2007.
3. Digg is going to be acquired by one of the mainstream media conglomerates.
4. Implicit applications, which monitor our habits and automatically infer our likes, will rise.
Emre Sokullu, Feature Writer, ReadWriteWeb
1. Facebook will acquire companies that do the following, in order to strengthen their advertising unit: personalization, behavior tracking, image recognition (Riya?)
2. Facebook will release a browser.
3. However, despite all that... Facebook will decline.
4. Google OpenSocial will be a failure; Google will try to create its own social networking empire by making acquisitions in this space.
5. Microsoft will become more aggresive and buy many popular companies at once (remember Ballmer's quote). Candidates include SixApart, Technorati.
Sean Ammirati, Editor, ReadWriteTalk (our podcast show):
1. Google will really start looking vulnerable in 2008. While the 'one trick pony' comment by Steve Ballmer drew sarcastic responses, this will begin to look prophetic. While they'll maintain market share in the search industry, the lack of traction in any other of their other initiatives will start to cause frustration. Plus, they will increasingly be perceived as the 'evil' company in many of these new initiatives.
2. Closely related, Yahoo's Hack strategy (see ReadWriteTalk's podcast with Bradley Horowitz) will start to bear fruit and things will look much more optimistic in Sunnyvale this year.
3. Facebook will start to feel pressure from two trends that will emerge on the web: distributed social networks and distributed commerce systems. For distributed commerce systems, look to see a first proof of concept from the VRM project. Chris Messina's diso project with Wordpress will be a great proof of concept for distributed social neworks.
4. Non-search advertising on the web will increase in value significantly. This will be done through a lot of innovation in the ad targeting systems (both behavioral and contextual) and new metrics being adopted by Madison Ave beyond CPC and CPM.
5. There will be a lot of innovation in the hyper-local space, putting the final nail in the newspaper industry's coffin. This will include companies like Outside.in and Yelp moving toward widespread use and new web properties (from both startups and big Internet Cos) emerging.
6. Finally, a 3G iPhone! OK, I don't know if this is a prediction, but I really really want it to be true :)
Charles Knight, Editor, AltSearchEngines (RWW network blog)
1. In the 1st Q 2008, the true "Google Killer" in search will be in Stealth Mode. In 2nd Q 2008 the first prototype will begin in closed Alpha mode. In 3rd Q 2008 it will be ready for the final closed Beta testing. In 4th Q 2008 it will launch and "Rock and Shock" the world!
2. The classic Vertical Search Engines (Job Search, Health, Consumer Electronics, Shopping, Video, People, more...) will continue their dominance over all other Search Engines in their various niches.
3. The Alternative Search Engines will pick up the pace of partnerships and cooperation, for their solid mutual benefit.
4. Mainstream Media interest in the Alts will increase until it begins to rival coverage of the five major search engines.
5. The trend towards 'widgetization' of the Alts will continue. Approximately 2 in 10 Alternative Search Engines (20%) have widgets now, and that number will double in 2008 to 4 in 10 or 40%.
Conclusion
Now it's time for you to tell us your Web predictions for 2008. Please leave a comment or trackback below!
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if you want more tech predictions for 2008 follow http://twitter.com/predictions08 on twitter
1. Microsoft must buy Zoho but Google will buy Zoho
2. Riya will be a hit in late 2008. And I'll able to find some resembling me on this earth
3. Google and Wikipedia will be in Mexican-Tradeoff
4. Gmail will be available offline too
Nobody will buy Zoho. Let's see in 371 days from now.
Hey Richard, I have been working in Asia in the past 4 years in Internet companies... and if there is something I can tell you... they don't give a crap about europe and the us market, because they care too much about rentability and income, there is so much things and a so huge market to conquer in Asia that they won't spend time on our "tiny" market... many years ago they had a netvibes like, a flickr like... but they never launched it over there cause there was no business model and no ways yet to monetize that... Look at what happen to Cyworld in the Usa...
about the semantic web I remember that they told me the samein 2006...still waiting for it... what I'm sure about 2008 is that anything can happen.
Thierry; you are wrong. Just take a look at the recently released http://www.qqgames.com/ page by Tencent (Chinese internet company famous for QQ). They are definately targetting the US market.
Of course the Chinese (or Asian) market is most important, but their attitude is definately not like "don't give a crap about europe and the us market"
Richard, Marshall, Josh, Alex, Emre, Sean and Charles: thanks for a great 2007!
As far as the predictions go, I can't help but think about what each means in terms of the evolving behavior of web users. How will the average person, use the web in 2008.
My predictions:
Thanks!
-Dan
I'm going with Marshall and Alex's predictions, which I think are pretty much on the ball. I disagree with most of Richard's, mostly because they're too optimistic. I definitely can't see the semantic Web catching on at all (heck, RSS has barely caught on) or a Chinese company making it big in the West. We shall see!
My personal suggestion would be that bespoke apps for vertical markets will become even more popular, now that they are so many rapid Web app development systems out there. Various memes will be started, none of which we can predict now, and by the end of the year we'll be using some word or phrase we've not heard of yet. There will be a major death or two, a few companies will surprisingly go out of business, and there will be several new successful companies that will come as if out of nowhere. So.. the same as 2005, 2006, and 2007 really ;-)
I guess there will be less web-apps, the weakest ones will disapear. Tools like Wrike will grow and probably they will integrate this even bigger tools.
About a Chinese company making it big in the US, probably not.
But US traffic metrics are important for Chinese companies to seek after, for a lot of compete.com-equiv's nearly only profile companies based on US-centric traffic.
2008 is going to be a big year in that you will see a push from Asia in the area of integrating Web with Mobile. We're already working on empowering people in this exciting direction.
http://jp.blognation.com/2007/12/09/zooomr-conquering-the-world-from-japan/
kristopher
Semantic Web will take off in 2008, actually, will be big time.
1. The blogging bubble will burst in 08. Networks and established bloggers will continue to do well however a lot of unique voices will recede to becoming a par time journal, much like they started out in the first place. Blogging full time will only be for the best and fortunate few.
2. Aggregators and distillers will break through. It's the year for services such as Tumblr and FriendFeed that help manage the madness.
3. Web 2.0 applications will start to look to the Enterprise for a viable business model.
4. Semantic applications will get measured visibility. Adaptive Blue that focuses on specific solutions are best positioned. Don't expect a generic semantic application to make a big splash.
5. Twitters fate? A purchase will be attempted. However, the price will largely depend on how well Google monetizes YouTube and Digg and possibly Technorati's purchase price. These stories will tell how well Twitter can be monetized.
6. IM and SMS carriers will face increased pressure to open up their systems.
7. No material impact on Google's dominance or the privacy issues its facing. Google will continue to bury those stories by banging out very useful features for the mainstream users.
8. RSS - If it's marketed in its current form, will see little increase in mainstream adoption in 08.
My prediction:
The interwebs will die due to too much pr0n. Goodbye.
"1. In the 1st Q 2008, the true "Google Killer" in search will be in Stealth Mode. In 2nd Q 2008 the first prototype will begin in closed Alpha mode. In 3rd Q 2008 it will be ready for the final closed Beta testing. In 4th Q 2008 it will launch and "Rock and Shock" the world!"
Can you say "SearchMe"?
1. Concentration of wealth will grow.
2. Zoho will not be bought but they will survive on their own.
3. Digg will be acquired by News Corp.
4. Techcrunch will lose its credibility against ReadWriteWeb & Gigaom due to facebook PRs and being a paid site for big companies and VCs.
5 Google OpenSocial will eat facebook apps somewhere in Q2 2008.
6. ReadWriteWeb will start a new section for online / offline apps like ZDNET.
7. Amazon will sponsor RRW for helping them launching new products - You guys are honest in your posts, no sarcasm here.
8. People will realize that Semantic web is not for 2008 but for 2010.
9. We will see more use of Microsoft Silverlight in rich media apps.
10. We will see more bootstrap startups defeating the idea that successful business needs VC money.
11. Bill G will retire and developers will mourn - no sarcasm.
12. The author of dailyapps.net will join RRW.
13. We will see more and more specialized small products and companies like octazen.com
14. Lead Gen / Affiliate network industry will prosper due to higher cost of search advertising.
15. People will be more smarter to not post comments on any random blog posts since they will feel more competition in what they will be doing and think of posting comments as a waste of time unless bloggers are using kyte like service which allows realtime interaction.
16. Facebook VCs will force Zuck to step down as CEO and he will step down.
17. Amazon will release a full-blown distributed DB product against MS SQL and Oracle.
18. Yahoo will continue to release products sooner than bloggers can write them and will realize that's a bad idea in Q4 2008.
19. Startup pitch with words like "changing the way", "helping customers / consumers", "revolutionary", "a unique product", "allows you" will be considered as humor words. Entrepreneurs will be more humble and welcoming their customers in the time of fierce competition.
20. Newspapers will adopt new technology (outsourced or in-house) and manage to survive their market share. Everybody will fight to retain their users and tools / products in this space will take greater market share.
Peter Cooper is so right on and taking this prediction mania in a new direction:
Verticals are the next phase, as real, service economy business cross the web 20 chasm. These are not mere punditry and prognostications, but the truth.
The industry has spent the last two years or so making and breaking a catalog of office 2.0 applications, and ways of connecting them. Also, basic grid computing initiatives have had more time to get their language bindings debugged.
Mobile portals, easier startups, and real applications for small and medium business, with the power of applications that used to require big boxes and expensive software.
Thanks Peter cooper, would you like to help me start ThruDispatch? http://www.squidoo.com/ThruDispatch
Interesting list — will be very interesting to do an evaluation at the end of 2008 to see how accurate you are... funny too that no one made predictions about RRW in 2008!
Also, I just want to amend Sean Ammirati's generous mention of DiSo... while I'm certainly involved and helping (hoping!) to lead the charge, Steve Ivy has been putting in a great deal of work so far and deserves credit for naming the project and providing the impetus to get things off the ground. Since then we've had some great folks join the project, including Will Norris and Stephen Paul Weber, and I'm exciting to be working with such an awesome group that seems hell-bent on figuring this stuff out!
Search wars will get serious. Google is valued at $3bn per % of share. Many will go after it. Wikipedia will get the most traction at Google's expense.
The ad model will show its limits. Free simply will not work for serious services and will bankrupt many web 2.0 startups.
Like the move from B2C mania to B2B obsession of 1999, Enterprise 2.0 will be big as web 2.0 fades.
Cloud computing will be big but will hurt the Internet giants as they face the huge capex, lots of people and low margins associated with it (and totally unlike their core businesses).
Apple will continue to thrive hitting 10% PC share in the US. However, they will not dethrone Blackberry in the smartphone market.
"Services" will be the word of the year as all successful products will actually be services (a la iTunes/iPod and Kindle/whispernet).
I think that 2008 might be the year where the most interesting story about technology will come from businesses that are using it, rather than developing it, to transform their own respective industry sectors.
There are any number of "platform businesses" that will emerge on the cloud that have nothing to do with "social networking." The real revolution will happen when main street starts innovating...what Doc Searls has called the "because of" factor.
Thanks for the prediction. I'm getting a growing feeling that YouTube will reach a billion video views per day in 2008. If you extrapolate current growth rates for YouTube, that milestone is either going to happen in 2008 or in early 2009.
Carlos, post 19, I think you're spot on. So much emphasis is put on the "what's coming", when what we "already have" has yet to be implemented by a sizeable percentage of Main Street. Hyper Local will be big, as more and more small businesses come on board the New Web.
Personally, I think 2008 will be the year of the 'Idea', as thousands and thousands of innovative lightbulbs that are on dimmer mode are switched to full brightness via Open Innovation platforms and Idea Portals (employee and consumer).
Not a 'techie' set of predictions, but these were my insights about 2008 in a blog post earlier this month:
Dr.Mani’s Crystal Ball - Predictions for 2008
http://MoneyPowerWisdom.com/drmanis-crystal-ball-predictions-for-2008/
Merry Christmas :)
All success
Dr.Mani
1) current successful chinese internet companies are never innovative. they only copy US model into china, because VCs like this. so don't expect an original innovative biz model from China will influence western world within 3 years.
2) why no one makes prediction on virtual world?
1. Microsoft must buy Zoho but Google will buy Zoho
"must", good use here.
"why no one makes prediction on virtual world?"
Actually, I don't think virtual world we be ready in 2008.
They've got a long way to struggle.
The most possibilities for them is the invention of new interactive devices. Mouse and keypad is not enough.
A Facebook browser? Sounds good to me:
http://markevanstech.com/2007/11/21/the-facebook-browser/
Twitter will probably be bought by Amazon or Google, I'd put my bet on Amazon.
I think we will see the Google stock falling by at least 20%. It is valued too high, and the investors will realize it.
i agree with the economist, the web is going to slow down, too much traffic
Hm, twitter will probably be bought by Amazon - and ProjectSpot.net will become the new way for people to advertise their websites and creations. Who knows?
Google will take a nose dive this year!
facebook will die within the next 2 years
Google will buy Amazon, or vise versa.
1. 2D/3D interfaces will emerge, combining the best of 2D pages and virtual worlds, which will create an explosion in new types of personal pages, ads, social networking, and blogging. Think metaphorically of Woody Allen's "The Purple Rose of Cairo" where the actor steps into the flat screen.
2. Hybrid WiFi/cellular phones, combined with Google and other new cellular carriers, will challenge the business model of wireless carriers over time.
5. Microsoft will become more aggresive and buy many popular companies at once (remember Ballmer's quote). Candidates include SixApart.
LOL. noone will give livejournal to MS
Semantic Apps and open standards seems pretty sure predictions. Your Web OS prediction is a great idea too, but '08 too early?
a meteor will crash into the earth causing a breakdown of the internet...everyone will be free once again.
2008 will be the year where regular folks start to understand and discuss the inevitability of conscious, machine based computing - likely to arrive in about 15 years - and the high likelihood that this will profoundly impact and restructure human civilization.
2008 will be the year where regular folks start to understand and discuss the inevitability of conscious, machine based computing - likely to arrive in about 15 years - and the high likelihood that this will profoundly impact and restructure human civilization.
in 2008 monigo.com will conquer the World.
I predict..Pres. Bush will fall off his bicycle and have a massive
head injury and be unable to complete his term in office and
will be replaced by Bob Dole.
Women will rise up against the pain of high heeled shoes
and exclaim if I were a Lesbian I wouldn't have this foot
pain, now would I?
Jeb Bush will be elected to dog catcher in Palm Beach but he
will live next to Rush Limbaugh.
Glen Beck will be confronted with all his disinformation by
a gang of angry democrats, and they will demand he show
his special Morman underpants to his audience or be deported to Argentina to join other conservatives from 1945.
The Price of Gas will rise to $4.49 a gallon but Limbaugh will claim that adjusted for inflation, its more like 39 cents a gallon, winning the praise of Steve Forbes.
It will be disclosed that Rush Limbaugh is actually the love child of Herman Goering and an American Nazi.
The recession will expose the current web as the Land Without A Business Plan. VCs will pull back funding, advertisers will leave in droves, and pretenders like Facebook will implode without users who actually pay for services.
WoW will survive, and everyone will come to their senses and realize that subscription models are necessary.
We'll all think, Web 2.0 was Web 1.0 with tinsel.
My project will be implemented by Microsoft. Apple will follow.
Cell Computer Project
Best wishes,
Michael
It's great that the authors put their predictions in this one post. In order, here's who I agree with most:
#1 Alex Iskold
#2 Richard MacManus
#3 Sean Ammirati
#4 Josh Catone
#5 Marshall Kirkpatrick
#6 Charles Knight
#7 Emre Sokullu
My reasons can be found at:
http://schlerplotti.typepad.com/quantworks/2007/12/comments-on-rea.html
I think mobile there will be a considerable outgrowth of mobile web, besides that Google will keep on going especially with Android.
sadly, the author(s) failed to use any links to descriptions of the new developments they describe. that just poor blogging and they should know better.
1. Amazon and IAC could bring surprises.
2. The smaller players are gonna call the shots.
3. Mobile apps will initiate the process of replacing the desktop apps.
4. Social networking will be heading for something revolutionary.
Happy New Year!!
John Edwards will be elected President of the United States of America in November 2008. :)
-s
I work for US company in India.
In 2008 , due to USA recession,
Indian companies will loose the profit.
Reliance company will grow more and more.
More than IT india will be hub for the manufacturing units of mega companies in US.
Pollution will increase,cost of living will increase.
From IT front
1) Google will start feeling the heat of other search engines.
2) zoho will be more popular
3) Web 2.0 will fall and people will start 3.0 or something.0
4) Social networking will re-shape
5) Microsoft will buy more companies
6) Google release its mobile phone
7) IBM will buy SUN
George bush will start world war 3 and try to control the internet like they do America.
@Anonymous #45: Er, how do you propose we link to the future? ..... ;)
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