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  <title>Comments for Bits of Destruction Hit the Book Publishing Business: Part 2</title>
  
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    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677</id>
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    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.readwriteweb.com/cgi-bin/mt/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=15677" title="Bits of Destruction Hit the Book Publishing Business: Part 2" />
    <published>2009-07-16T22:35:24Z</published>
    <updated>2009-07-17T11:29:40Z</updated>
    <title>Bits of Destruction Hit the Book Publishing Business: Part 2</title>
    <summary>In part 1 of this series, we looked at the three big waves crashing down on the traditional book publishing business: Google Search, the Kindle and e-books, and print on demand. In this second part, we&apos;ll try to wipe the muck from our crystal ball and see how this could play out in the future,...</summary>
    <author>
      <name>Bernard Lunn</name>
      <uri>http://www.readwriteweb.com/about_bernardlunn.php</uri>
    </author>
    
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      <![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.readwriteweb.com/images/kindle_logo_mar09.jpg" width="100" height="179" />In <a href="http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/bits_of_destruction_hit_book_publishing_part1.php">part 1 of this series</a>, we looked at the three big waves crashing down on the traditional book publishing business: Google Search, the Kindle and e-books, and print on demand. In this second part, we'll try to wipe the muck from our crystal ball and see how this could play out in the future, specifically for the major players of book publishing: readers, authors, printers, publishers, retailers, and e-book device vendors.</p>]]>
      <![CDATA[<h2>What Will Readers Get?</h2>

<p>Readers have the money that makes all of this happen, so they will, eventually, get what they want, which is:</p>

<ul>
<li>Broad selection of titles,</li>

<li>Choice of format and device,</li>

<li>Fast delivery,</li>

<li>Low prices,</li>

<li>Freemium model.</li>
</ul>

<p>In other words, readers will be able to order any book in the universe and have it sent to them in print wherever they want or sent digitally to whatever device they have. Readers have grown accustomed to getting their online content for free, so they will expect to get at least a degraded experience via the regular browser (the "free" in freemium).</p>

<p>This will take a while to play out. We live in a world today of bilateral negotiations, so different titles are available for different devices and in different bookstores. But play out it will. This is the logic of digitization. Until we reach that stage, plenty of entrepreneurial opportunities will exist to meet those reader demands.</p>

<p>Readers will pay more for print. They will understand that it costs more. Some readers will resist e-books as long as they live. Others will be selective, choosing print for certain titles and situations and digital for others.</p>

<h2>Will Books Be Free?</h2>

<p>Here is my free review of my free copy of "Free."</p>

<p>Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail, recently came out with the book "<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Free-Future-Radical-Chris-Anderson/dp/1401322905">Free: The Future of a Radical Price</a>." So the question of whether books will be free in the future is a natural one to ask. The short answer is, No. If books became free, authors would stop writing, printers would stop printing, and electronics factories would stop churning out e-book readers. In other words, there would be nothing to read... except:</p>

<ul>
<li><strong>Free copies given to reviewers to generate free reviews.</strong> I got a free copy of "Free" when I attended Wired's "Disruptive by Design" conference. But the practice of giving away free copies to reviewers has been happening since publishing began.</li>

<li><strong>Free excerpts and abstracts online.</strong> Using free content to entice you to a paid version will continue. Freemium models will be the norm. People with more time than money will take the free version online through their browser, even if the paid print version or e-book is a much better experience. This is nothing new, either: people with more time than money already get free books through their local library. Enabling people with more time than money to read for free is a good thing.</li>

<li><strong>Promotional publishing.</strong> Traditional brochures have lost all credibility and value in this online world. And everyone has a blog; blogs are no longer differentiators. So, published books are the new blogs. Consultants can charge more if they have a book published. To be credible, the book would need a published price (preferably a high one), but all potential clients would get one for free. This is just an extension of blogging as an attention-getting tool.</li>

<li><strong>Passion publishing.</strong> This has been called "vanity publishing" in the industry. This is a pejorative term that can be translated as, "This is not real publishing because no one is paying for it." If the author's passion relates to a cause, funding may come from a non-profit foundation. But volume will accumulate from simple books such as your family memoir or a cookbook inspired by your vacation in Tuscany.  Again, this is not much different from spending time on a blog. Free books may come with advertising, like blogs.</li>
</ul>

<p>How much does <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Free-Future-Radical-Chris-Anderson/dp/1401322905">Chris Anderson's "Free" book cost on Amazon</a>? List price: $26.99, discounted to $16.19. Not free.</p>

<b>Next: Authors, Printers...</b>

<!--nextpage-->

<h2>Authors</h2>

<p>What about people who harbor a desire to live off of their writing? After all, most writers write because they couldn't imagine not doing it. It is not a profession in the normal sense. They feel compelled to write in the same way that painters feel compelled to paint and musicians are driven to create music. But they have to eat and pay the rent, too.</p>

<p>Intermediaries who mistake that urge to write as a willingness to be exploited will get their heads handed to to them. In a free market, intermediaries are always replaceable, but we need both our authors and readers to always remain motivated.</p>

<p>We are seeing today the early phase of intensified competition in book publishing, as is happening in other industries affected by digitization. Competition will mean, first, more choice and lower prices for readers and, secondly, a bigger share of the pie for authors.</p>

<p>Specifically, we expect to see the following:</p>

<ol>
<li><strong>The end of advances.</strong> The irony is that the authors who really need advances, the new ones scraping by on Ramen noodles, cannot get them. Meanwhile authors who don't need them, the ones living the high life off of previous royalties or whatever made them famous enough to get an advance, are showered with ridiculous advances at the end of bidding wars between big publishers. Authors will write without advances. Unlike movies, books are relatively cheap to create. In the digitized world of e-books and print on demand, authors get paid as soon as someone buys the first copy. The lack of an advance will be compensated for by a bigger share of the revenue pie.</li>

<li><strong>Authors getting a bigger share of the pie.</strong> It makes no sense for authors to get only 10% in a digitized world. We expect this to grow from 10% to 30% or more. Digitization takes most of the costs out of the supply chain. So, unless an intermediary such as Amazon charges monopoly-like rents, authors will get a bigger share. Amazon has amazing power today and will squeeze everyone in the supply chain. But new competition will emerge (we'll look at this later), and keeping authors happy is critical to the success of publishers. Authors are like software developers, not powerful individually but incredibly powerful en masse (and just as ornery!). Authors will need a bigger share also because prices will be coming down. But the drop in price, coupled with globalization, will open up new markets in which to sell books and therefore generate more revenue.</li>

<li><strong>Authors creating the finished product.</strong> Today, authors write and publishers look after the cover art and editing. If authors were to get 30% or more, they would have to take on these two other jobs. But in a world of desktop publishing tools and social networks to organize work and editing, this will not be hard.</li>

<li><strong>Online marketing replacing book tours.</strong> It is the bane of the author's life. The book tour is wonderful the first time: "Wow, I am a real author now." But this is <em>not</em> the same as musicians going on tour. Musicians are performing their job in its natural environment during live shows; not true of authors reflecting on their books on stage. There are many and much better ways to promote books online.</li>
</ol>

<p>The future of authors can be summed up, then, as: do more of the work and get a bigger percentage of the retail price, which will be lower.</p>

<h2>Printers</h2>

<p>Printers. Who loves you, baby! Predicting the decline of the printing industry is easy, but hopeful signs exist:</p>

<ul>
<li>Print on demand will significantly increase the types of books that can get printed.</li>

<li>Lower prices, resulting from costs eliminated from the supply chain, will increase demand.</li>

<li>Globalization will increase demand.</li>
</ul>

<p>It will be interesting to see how digital printing technology, the fundamental driver of print on demand, changes the role of printing over time. Today, we have two extremes:</p>

<ol>
<li><strong>Mass-scale printers, centrally located</strong>. We even saw printing move offshore, where labor is cheaper. But this will likely reverse in a print-on-demand world, where immediacy and delivery costs are critical: printing will be done closer to the consumer.</li>

<li><strong>Do-it-yourself printing</strong>, also known as using the printer in your home or office. Do-it-yourself printing is both expensive (those ink cartridge costs really add up) and a hassle.</li>
</ol>

<p>Digital printing could quite possibly move to a hyper-local network model. Orders would be automatically routed to the printer closest to the consumer. The already existing infrastructure of small-scale local print shops would welcome this model. The book would then be delivered (quickly and cheaply) to a local retailer or the consumer's home or office. Perhaps the printer would be located in the back office of the retailer?</p>

<p>This fits the trend on the Internet of everything moving towards the edge. It is also an environmentally friendly model, reducing emissions from delivery trucks.</p>

<p>The model won't really help existing large-scale, centralized printers, though.</p>

<b>Next: Publishers...</b>

<!--nextpage-->

<h2>Publishers</h2>

<p>NYMag has a <a href="http://nymag.com/news/media/50279/">very good article</a> on how big old publishers are faring. It is not a happy tale. It illustrates once again the perils of financially engineered consolidation (think banks and car companies). Book publishing used to be a business in which small firms, run by passionate editors, found great authors and developed personal relationships with them. Occasionally, they struck it rich when one of their authors "caught fire" with the reading public.</p>

<p>Today feels like the calm before the storm. Publishers are worrying about the recession. That is a small wave and will soon pass. But we won't be returning to normal when GDP growth resumes. The three big digitization waves -- Google Book Search, e-books, and print on demand -- will have a far bigger and more lasting impact.</p>

<p>Publishers did quite well during the first phase, when retailers got "Amazoned." They sold more of their back catalog (i.e. they enjoyed the long tail).</p>

<p>On the surface, all is well with the Kindle. Publishers get the same percentage from an e-book that they get when a retailer sells a print version of the book, and their costs are lower. Amazon is playing along. But when it gets more traction, it will squeeze.</p>

<p>Publishers have to figure out not so much how to negotiate with Amazon (competition from other consumer electronic devices will take care of that), but how to remain relevant to authors. Even saying this seems contrarian. Publishers have had all the power till now. The bane of an author's life has been to find a publisher. Plastering the wall with rejection letters and recounting tales of arrogant editors are rites of passage for every author.</p>

<h2>Unbundling Publishers</h2>

<p>But what services exactly do publishers provide to authors? Let's disassemble the package:</p>

<ol>
<li><strong>Advances</strong>. Newbies don't get them, and the rest don't need them.</li>

<li><strong>Editing</strong>. Do you have a social network that could give you constructive criticism?</li>

<li><strong>Cover design</strong>. Yes, a great one can make a book. But how much do graphic designers charge?</li>

<li><strong>ISBN</strong>. Here is an interesting one. To be a publisher, you need international standard book numbers (ISBNs). This is actually what defines you as a publisher. An ISBN is a 13-digit number that uniquely identifies a book or book-like product that is published internationally (read more about it <a href="http://www.isbn.org/standards/home/isbn/us/isbnqa.asp">here</a>). The application process that takes about 15 days and costs about $250 for 10 titles.</li>

<li><strong>Marketing</strong>. Some authors will say, "What marketing?" For mega-star authors, publishers have to spend a ton on marketing to recoup their advance. Authors who don't get advances won't expect much marketing and will end up doing a lot of the work themselves, which wouldn't be so bad if they were getting 30%, rather than 10%.</li>

<li><strong>Brand</strong>. An author may realistically know that the publisher won't do much marketing and yet still want a brand-name publisher. The reason is partly to feel good: "Wow, I am a real author now." But it is also a rational calculation. Which is better, selling 100 books and keeping 30% or selling 300 books and keep 10%? That's right: it is about the same. Does a brand-name publisher increase sales three times?</li>

<li><strong>Retailer shelf-space</strong>. Publishers take a big risk on their "sale or return" policy with major retailers. So, you might get retail shelf space, but that is changing, as we will see below.</li>

<li><strong>Amazon "shelf space"</strong>.  This is unlimited, so your publisher will get you in here. But any publisher will get its authors in there. Technically, any entity with an ISBN is a publisher.</li>
</ol>

<p>If any entity with an ISBN is a publisher, then authors could act as their own publishers. Or we could see cooperative publishers emerge. Or alternative publishers, such as indie and network publishers, could grow stronger.</p>

<p>But let's consider first how book retailing might evolve.</p>

<b>Next: Retailers, e-book Vendors...</b>

<!--nextpage-->

<h2>Retailers</h2>

<p>Here is a bookstore owner's nightmare. Customer walks in; browses around; has grand old time in this temple of knowledge; peruses a book that costs $27; takes out Kindle and orders it for $17, right there in front of your nose, using your wi-fi connection. Aaagh!</p>

<p>You wake up sweating at 3:00 in the morning.</p>

<p>Have you noticed all of those best-seller books stacked up at the front of your local bookstore? Did the retailer buy them hoping to sell them all? Of course not. They are relying on a variant of the age-old practice of "sale or return." Publisher have agreed to take back unsold ones for credit. As this <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601094&sid=akL6kYgnm3nw&refer=book">article on Bloomberg</a> states:</p>

<blockquote><p>"Returns date back to the Depression, when publishers implemented the practice as a way to ensure that bookstores would continue stocking new books."</p></blockquote>

<p>Now that we are in a major recession, or micro-depression, or whatever we're calling it these days, surely this practice will continue. Well, probably not. Digitization, whether via e-book or print on demand, makes it unnecessary. And publishers simply cannot sustain it. Approximately 25% of their books are being returned. Think of what that does to their profit margins.</p>

<p>How can retailers survive if they have to decide what to buy based on their forecast of what will sell? The answer is, they can't. No one can forecast fickle consumer taste. With retailer's profit margins being what they are, one small error could lead to an operation's failure.</p>

<p>But they have to stock their shelves with something, right?</p>

<p>Not necessarily. Have you noticed that bookstores are becoming more like coffee shops and coffee shops are becoming more like bookstores? And that both have wi-fi?</p>

<p>Retail bookstores might look more like community hang-out spots in future, with the following:</p>

<ul>
<li>Good (but expensive) coffee and snacks,</li>

<li>Free wi-fi,</li>

<li>A few best-selling books and DVDs (under the sale or return policy),</li>

<li>A way for patrons to order any book in the universe, while taking a cut of the transaction.</li>
</ul>

<p>This last possibility is not hard to imagine. The customer could have the book delivered to the bookstore if they will be passing by again soon or, for a little extra (plus guilt for the bigger carbon footprint), their home.</p>

<p>These coffee shop/bookstores could even host virtual "Meet the author" sessions on a big screen, with back-channel chats going on via Twitter. And they could host book clubs for both face-to-face meetings and online gatherings.</p>

<p>If the "local printer" model becomes a reality, book delivery would be immediate. We can even imagine digital printers setting up shop in the back of coffee shop/bookstores?</p>

<p>That sounds like fun for readers, authors, and store owners. But for students and the unemployed, the walk to the local library seems all the shorter.</p>

<p>And what about big-box bookstores in malls? Nope. Sell your commercial real estate and big-box retailer stock. That will get ugly.</p>

<h2>The E-Book Device War</h2>

<p>Today, the Kindle rules, just as the iPhone and iPod have beaten the devices in their product classes. The Kindle is simply better for readers than Sony's device. At least, most people think so, and that is what matters.</p>

<p>This dominance is threatened from two directions:</p>

<ol>
<li><strong>The Android model.</strong> Google has not revealed its long-term plans related to book publishing, but being Google's, its plans will be ambitious and centered on driving traffic to vendors through free content. Because e-book readers are similar as consumer devices to smartphones, Google will likely use the Android platform as leverage to bring all consumer device manufacturers who want a piece of the action on board. <a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20090319/sony-google-fire-back-at-amazons-kindle-with-black-beauty/">Sony and Google are already working together</a>.</li>

<li><strong>The offline/online combo model.</strong> We tend to think of book reading as a solitary activity, but that is not how it started, and it is not how you started reading (if you were read to by your parents). The popularity of book clubs proves that it can be a great social activity. It is not hard to imagine some entrepreneur mixing online and offline to create a great social experience, and monetizing it with book purchases. There is no cost to creating the venue for that social experience, but it may be the differentiator.</li>
</ol>

<h2>Network Indie Publishing Model</h2>

<p>The traditional publishing industry refers to its alternatives in pejorative terms, such "self-publishing" and "vanity publishing." We prefer indie publishing. Indie movies bypass the big Hollywood studios. Indie music bypasses the big record labels. And indie books bypass the big publishers. We look at how this could play out in more detail later.</p>

<p>Indie publishers already exist, and we may see a lot more. With digitization, the barriers to entry come crashing down. In fact, highly trafficked niche websites could become publishers, because:</p>

<ul>
<li>They draw traffic, which they could use to market books,</li>

<li>Their brands are respected, at least within their niches.</li>
</ul>

<p>A website about food could sell cookery books, a site about cars could sell books about cars, and so on. The steps are relatively simple: get an ISBN, make a deal with a print-on-demand vendor, make a deal with Amazon and Sony, and you're in business. Last but not least, choose good authors.</p>

<p>When all you need is an ISBN to become a publisher and earn 30% or more, why make do <a href="http://askville.amazon.com/Amazon-Associate-make-commission-product-link-buys/AnswerViewer.do?requestId=8040097">earning only 4% to 10% as an Amazon affiliate</a>.</p>

<p>In this new world, we could see the pie fairly evenly divided in three:</p>

<ul>
<li>Author: one-third,</li>

<li>Publisher, who also creates traffic and demand through their website: one-third,</li>

<li>Printer or e-book service: one-third.</li>
</ul>]]>
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  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:147603</id>
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    <title>Comment from William Mougayar on 2009-07-16</title>
    <author>
        <name>William Mougayar</name>
        <uri>http://beta.eqentia.com/newsfuture</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://beta.eqentia.com/newsfuture">
        <![CDATA[<p>That's a great dissection of the book publishing space. It would be nice if authors could get more (i.e. ~30%) as you suggested, given that the existing intermediary costs plummet with increased digital distribution & publication. The traditional publisher's model is definitely in danger, because their added-value is diminishing with time. Today, there still is a 3-4 months lag between end of manuscript and appearance in a bookstore, and that model is getting pretty old. <br />
I wouldn't be surprised to see a new segment of books & authors emerge that bypasses traditional publishers completely. For this segment, the primary market will be digital/online, the secondary market Amazon-as a channel, and thirdly bookstores. This will in essence flip the current pyramid on its head. </p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-07-17T01:51:06Z</published>
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  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:147615</id>
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    <title>Comment from Keith Fahlgren on 2009-07-16</title>
    <author>
        <name>Keith Fahlgren</name>
        <uri></uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="">
        <![CDATA[<p>Correction: ISBNs are now 13 digits (and have been for a few years).</p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-07-17T02:58:06Z</published>
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  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:147619</id>
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    <title>Comment from spura shoes  on 2009-07-16</title>
    <author>
        <name>spura shoes </name>
        <uri>http://www.chinawholesale2008.com</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.chinawholesale2008.com">
        <![CDATA[<p>I am wonderring if I can share your article in the bookmarks of society,Then more friends can talk about this problem         </p>

<p>           </p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-07-17T03:21:30Z</published>
  </entry>

  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:147636</id>
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    <title>Comment from Shaun Smith on 2009-07-16</title>
    <author>
        <name>Shaun Smith</name>
        <uri></uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="">
        <![CDATA[<p>An interesting exercise in speculation and daydreaming by someone whose knowledge of the publishing industry is clearly limited.</p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-07-17T05:47:25Z</published>
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  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:147638</id>
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    <title>Comment from jzbn on 2009-07-16</title>
    <author>
        <name>jzbn</name>
        <uri></uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="">
        <![CDATA[<p>Wow. You are kind of arrogant about the whole thing and it's clear you've never worked in traditional book publishing (though I'll bet you've had a book proposal turned down by a publisher or two). I'm not saying you don't have some good points, but you're making book publishers sound like music publishers, and they've never been that stupid or wicked. I could spend days picking apart this rambling, misinformed (and misinforming) article, but for now I'll just focus on the "Unbundling Publishers" section:<br /><br />
<br /><br />
<em>Advances. Newbies don't get them, and the rest don't need them.<br /><br />
</em>Wrong. I don't know of a single major publisher that doesn't give even first-time authors some sort of advance. Enough to buy a yacht? No. But usually enough to live on for several months.<br /><br />
<br /><br />
<em>Editing. Do you have a social network that could give you constructive criticism?<br /><br />
</em>Is that what you think "editing" is? No wonder this article has so many problems.<br /><br />
<br /><br />
<em>Cover design. Yes, a great one can make a book. But how much do graphic designers charge?<br /><br />
</em>Anywhere from $1,000 to $3,000 for a good design. An in-house designer can cost a publisher 45,000-75,000 USD a year. <br /><br />
<br /><br />
<em>ISBN. Here is an interesting one...<br /><br />
</em>Eh... Okay. But as mentioned above, they're 13 digits now.<br /><br />
<br /><br />
<em>Marketing. Some authors will say, "What marketing?" For mega-star authors, publishers have to spend a ton on marketing to recoup their advance...</em><br /><br />
Maybe. Depends on the publisher. They don't all do this. But you're leaving out two key components of Marketing (actually, they tend to be distinct departments, but whatever): Publicity and Sales. If a Publicist is doing his or her job, they're the ones that will get a decent author on the Today show. Or they'll set up a satellite radio tour for a first-time author. Or they'll even make a blog tour happen. And they give nervous authors media training (do you think all good writers are comfortable with social--or any other--media?). It's hard work, and it sells a ton of books. And the Sales Department... Well, you've heard of Barnes and Noble, right? The sales people book publishers keep on staff (at great expense) get your book into those stores--B&N still sells a lot of books. Sometimes they even convince B&N to set up special displays (those things at the front of the store you see even if your eyes are closed). And that's just Barnes and Noble... There are thousands of bookstores large and small across the world. The Sales Department at traditional publishers make sure your books end up in them all so people can find them. And though that world may be shrinking, these places will be selling books for a long time to come. Oh, and every publisher keeps someone on their sales staff who handles Amazon. Sure, Amazon will sell any book with an ISBN, but they won't necessarily give it good placement on their site. Big, big gains from those efforts.<br /><br />
<br /><br />
<em>Brand. ...Does a brand-name publisher increase sales three times?</em><br /><br />
Often they can do better. If you believe in your book, trust it to someone who knows how to get it into as many hands as possible. If you don't, self-publish and sell copies to your friends and family.<br /><br />
<br /><br />
Okay, I can't go on.<br />
</p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-07-17T06:05:58Z</published>
  </entry>

  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:147662</id>
    <thr:in-reply-to ref="tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677" type="text/html" href="http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/bits_of_destruction_hit_book_publishing_part2.php"/>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/bits_of_destruction_hit_book_publishing_part2.php#c147662" />
    <title>Comment from Bernard Lunn on 2009-07-17</title>
    <author>
        <name>Bernard Lunn</name>
        <uri>http://www.readwriteweb.com</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.readwriteweb.com">
        <![CDATA[<p>To all who pointed out that ISBN changed from 10 digits to 13 digits, thanks. That has been corrected. That clearly shows I have not worked in the book publishing business. This is an outsider's perspective and when an industry is going through major change, some people find an outsider perspective to be useful. I don't believe that Jeff Bezos ever worked in book publishing or Steve Jobs worked for a record label. Not that I am trying for that kind of comparison (if I come across as arrogant that is not my intention). I am simply pointing out that radical change usually comes from outside the industry. </p>

<p>I am sorry if this annoys people who work in book publishing. No, I have never had any manuscripts rejected, so I am not embittered. I am somebody who happens to like both technology and books. I mean I REALLY like books, the printed kind. And we don't get books without publishers and many publishers provide phenomenal value and work really hard to do that.  So I believe that publishers will continue to thrive. But I am also convinced that they will change, quite radically, and that new ones will emerge to replace the ones who do not change. </p>

<p>In my next phase of investigation I aim to look at this from the point of view of the author, to see how they look at this. Their view, ultimately, is what matters. </p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-07-17T11:53:02Z</published>
  </entry>

  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:147689</id>
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    <title>Comment from Irving Karchmar on 2009-07-17</title>
    <author>
        <name>Irving Karchmar</name>
        <uri>http://www.masterofthejinn.com</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.masterofthejinn.com">
        <![CDATA[<p>Two things: one of the POD's you mentioned, Booksurge, is also owned by Amazon, and has been since April of 2006, so they have a double advantage there. And I do give many copies of my book away as gifts and promotions, in pdf ebook format. That costs me nothing, and they usually go to places where my book cannot be bought anyway, such as Pakistan, Nepal, Kuwait, etc., and it really helps the word of mouth :)</p>

<p>Thanks,</p>

<p>Irving </p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-07-17T14:22:07Z</published>
  </entry>

  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:147702</id>
    <thr:in-reply-to ref="tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677" type="text/html" href="http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/bits_of_destruction_hit_book_publishing_part2.php"/>
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    <title>Comment from Steve G. on 2009-07-17</title>
    <author>
        <name>Steve G.</name>
        <uri></uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="">
        <![CDATA[<p>Chris Anderson's Free is also available online for free at Scribd. <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/17135767/FREE-full-book-by-Chris-Anderson" rel="nofollow">link</a></p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-07-17T15:40:24Z</published>
  </entry>

  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:147734</id>
    <thr:in-reply-to ref="tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677" type="text/html" href="http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/bits_of_destruction_hit_book_publishing_part2.php"/>
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    <title>Comment from Jeff on 2009-07-17</title>
    <author>
        <name>Jeff</name>
        <uri>http://www.nicholasmusings.com</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.nicholasmusings.com">
        <![CDATA[<p>This article is interesting and full of nice conjectures.  However, it leaves aside the issue of academic publishing.  Academics NEED publishers to give credence to their work so academics can get promoted.  Will this need for publishers have an effect on the publishing, maybe stabilizing the existence of publishers?  Or will academics need to find alternative ways to show their credentials?</p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-07-17T17:41:15Z</published>
  </entry>

  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:147795</id>
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    <title>Comment from Tony Marino on 2009-07-17</title>
    <author>
        <name>Tony Marino</name>
        <uri>http://www.tonymarinomarketing.com</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.tonymarinomarketing.com">
        <![CDATA[<p>Your 'bookstore owners nightmare' would be ironic except most of the independent bookstores are gone, and that is a true shame. And believe me the 'owners' of today's 'bookstores' are mega corporations that just barely understands what really happens in their store. Independents were the first to allow patrons to sit, read, sip, and spend more time then just hand over your credit card at the counter. The "free" model being used now most often is a "special report" of 20 to 30 pages, useful information, but not complete, and the upsell is the "Entire book." This is of course not true with fiction, although there are a few authors who've published the first X number of chapters to allow readers to get a 'taste' and then charged for the entire book. The "Special Report" tactic is used millions of time in the Internet Information Industry, not just for 'make money online' but for everything from acne cures and dog training to foreign exchange currency trading. <br />
You gave a 'glimpse' of the future but I feel like you didn't go quite far enough...audio books, sunglasses with chapters appearing on the inside lenses, all science fiction I know and of course we all know that stuff is silly, like little "communicators" the size of a matchbook you can talk to people with. (Big Grin).<br />
Good job, Bernard. I liked your article.<br />
Thanks.</p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-07-17T23:22:04Z</published>
  </entry>

  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:147897</id>
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    <title>Comment from Don Sakers on 2009-07-18</title>
    <author>
        <name>Don Sakers</name>
        <uri>http://www.scatteredworlds.com</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.scatteredworlds.com">
        <![CDATA[<p>Thanks for a thought-provoking pair of articles.</p>

<p>I'm a science fiction author who's chosen to go the "indie publication" route (I love that term, btw). I have my own ISBNs and publish my own books as well as some deserving titles from friends.</p>

<p>In both POD and Kindle, Amazon definitely takes the lion's share. To carry POD books, Amazon pays 55% of cover price and the POD printer takes about 30-35%, leaving the author's share at about 10-15%. For Kindle, Amazon gives the author a 35% share.</p>

<p>I think there's still one piece missing from: a method for readers to become aware of books that would interest them. With nonfiction, one can imagine Google ads targeted to particular searches: i.e. if someone searching for investment advice will be offered books on the subject. But for fiction, it's harder to see a mechanism for connecting reader and book.</p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-07-19T00:05:28Z</published>
  </entry>

  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:147918</id>
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    <title>Comment from Bernard Lunn on 2009-07-19</title>
    <author>
        <name>Bernard Lunn</name>
        <uri>http://www.readwriteweb.com</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.readwriteweb.com">
        <![CDATA[<p>I was intrigued to learn that what I had conceived as science fiction - print on demand in the back office of the retailer/coffee shop - is totally feasible today. The POD device is sized like a vending machine. Customer orders, pays and a few minutes later voila a freshly minted book! Think what that does to supply chain costs in the business. This is Dell just in time for the book biz. Who is making this happen? Ingram - the biggest book wholesaler - with the wonderfully named Espresso Book Machine:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.write-to-publish-for-profit.com/espresso-book-machine.html">http://www.write-to-publish-for-profit.com/espresso-book-machine.html</a></p>

<p> </p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-07-19T11:00:38Z</published>
  </entry>

  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:148066</id>
    <thr:in-reply-to ref="tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677" type="text/html" href="http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/bits_of_destruction_hit_book_publishing_part2.php"/>
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    <title>Comment from Raul Pereira on 2009-07-20</title>
    <author>
        <name>Raul Pereira</name>
        <uri>http://twitter.com/raul_pereira</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://twitter.com/raul_pereira">
        <![CDATA[<p>In your next article regarding the author's POV, please, say something about how piracy will affect us. Unlike musicians, we can't go out on a tour or sell merchandising, nor will I ever charge for an autograph, if I become famous enough. :) What opportunities and difficulties do you see here?<br />
Thank you for your perspective.</p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-07-20T14:53:13Z</published>
  </entry>

  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:148172</id>
    <thr:in-reply-to ref="tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677" type="text/html" href="http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/bits_of_destruction_hit_book_publishing_part2.php"/>
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    <title>Comment from sljs on 2009-07-20</title>
    <author>
        <name>sljs</name>
        <uri></uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="">
        <![CDATA[<p>In response to Don Saker, who is looking for " a method for readers to become aware of books that would interest them" this is what jzbn, above, refers to as marketing (inclusive of publicity and sales) from the publisher. This is the value add that publishers offer. They get them into store, market them in store, as well as in target audience circles and get them reviewed. Additionally Brand Name publishers have more sway in doing all of these things. Maybe indie publishing isn't the way for you Don.</p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-07-21T01:40:45Z</published>
  </entry>

  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:148278</id>
    <thr:in-reply-to ref="tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677" type="text/html" href="http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/bits_of_destruction_hit_book_publishing_part2.php"/>
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    <title>Comment from NT on 2009-07-21</title>
    <author>
        <name>NT</name>
        <uri>http://twitter.com/ntardiff</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://twitter.com/ntardiff">
        <![CDATA[<p>You make a lot of good points, though as jzbn alluded to I do think there's a complete lack of understanding of the role and value of editing outside of publishing. No doubt the crowd can replace some of that function in certain instances, such as for those engaged in self-publishing, but especially for bigger titles and academic/specialized titles, the role of the editor is still very important.</p>

<p>Also, your vision of POD in bookstores is becoming even more real than you think:<br />
<a href="http://www.boston.com/business/technology/articles/2009/06/29/vermont_bookstore_thriving_on_experiment_with_self_publishing/" rel="nofollow">http://www.boston.com/business/technology/articles/2009/06/29/vermont_bookstore_thriving_on_experiment_with_self_publishing/</a></p>

<p> </p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-07-21T13:18:52Z</published>
  </entry>

  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:148483</id>
    <thr:in-reply-to ref="tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677" type="text/html" href="http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/bits_of_destruction_hit_book_publishing_part2.php"/>
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    <title>Comment from Greg on 2009-07-22</title>
    <author>
        <name>Greg</name>
        <uri></uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="">
        <![CDATA[<p>Ummm. Do you actually know how books are produced? Saying things like "Editing. Do you have a social network that could give you constructive criticism?" doesn't exactly help your credibility. So you don't have a clue what editors do -- what else were you just guessing about? </p>

<p>Some things you just don't seem to have bothered researching. It wouldn't have taken a whole lot of digging to find out that designers charge from $500 to $1,500 for a book cover, for example. </p>

<p>There's a lot of good stuff in here, but you cut some corners, and they really show. </p>

<p>Perhaps you needed a good editor!</p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-07-22T15:21:36Z</published>
  </entry>

  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:148528</id>
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    <title>Comment from Clydette on 2009-07-22</title>
    <author>
        <name>Clydette</name>
        <uri></uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="">
        <![CDATA[<p>I think you make some interesting observations about what bookstores will look like in the future.  However, as others have pointed out, it screams "outsider's perspective" especially when talking about editing, its very clear you don't have any idea what an editor does for a manuscript.  </p>

<p>Overall, I think you hit some nerves and key points that all publishers (commercial and academic)should pay attention to.  </p>

<p>  </p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-07-22T21:53:45Z</published>
  </entry>

  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:152636</id>
    <thr:in-reply-to ref="tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677" type="text/html" href="http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/bits_of_destruction_hit_book_publishing_part2.php"/>
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    <title>Comment from Owen on 2009-08-17</title>
    <author>
        <name>Owen</name>
        <uri></uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="">
        <![CDATA[<p>Interesting article - not as good as part one - but still interesting. Also interesting responses, especially from jzbn and other publishers. Jzbn is correct in some areas and just wrong in others.</p>

<p>First off - he's not very up to date if he thinks that all publishers offer first time authors some kind of advance - not true any more. Some do, some don't. Editing - jzbn is quite right that your comment is way off base. But then so is the book publishing industry's idea of editing. How does someone learn to be an editor? There is only one real answer - you do it. Sadly that means that any new editor is not really very good. It also unfortunately means that there is little quality control and the result is that there are LOTS of really bad editors - even at very senior levels - editors who don't actually know what they are doing. For example, if you </p>

<p>Marketing - hah! If publishers could market books well then more people would be reading. They can't and so people don't.</p>

<p>But jzbn was right everywhere else. </p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-08-17T23:13:12Z</published>
  </entry>

  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:152641</id>
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    <title>Comment from Steve Oldner on 2009-08-17</title>
    <author>
        <name>Steve Oldner</name>
        <uri></uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="">
        <![CDATA[<p>Editing?  I review books, not many, for a book blogger and have read several by big name publishing houses that are full of spelling and grammar errors.  Just say I had expected better quality out of a name brand publisher and I'm not impressed.</p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-08-17T23:30:27Z</published>
  </entry>

  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:152691</id>
    <thr:in-reply-to ref="tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677" type="text/html" href="http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/bits_of_destruction_hit_book_publishing_part2.php"/>
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    <title>Comment from Bernard Lunn on 2009-08-18</title>
    <author>
        <name>Bernard Lunn</name>
        <uri>http://www.readwriteweb.com</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.readwriteweb.com">
        <![CDATA[<p>Owen, now I am going to switch sides a bit and defend publishers! You write:</p>

<p>"If publishers could market books well then more people would be reading. They can't and so people don't."</p>

<p>I think they try but it is real hard. Movies made us want different novels. Try reading a victorian novel - slooooow, right? Thomas Hardy can take 3 pages describing a desolate heath! Great, really great if you dedicate the time. But who has the time? So we got fast paced junk novels, because that is what we want. We know that slow food is better than junk food and slow novels better than junk novels - but what sells?</p>

<p>But movies, like 2 hour movies, that's so slow these days. Even 3 minute MTV is too long in the online world. We grab and skim content. How do you market books in that world?</p>

<p>It can be done - speaking as a total book lover - but it is not as easy as it used to be.</p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-08-18T08:53:56Z</published>
  </entry>

  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:153091</id>
    <thr:in-reply-to ref="tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677" type="text/html" href="http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/bits_of_destruction_hit_book_publishing_part2.php"/>
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    <title>Comment from rolex watches on 2009-08-19</title>
    <author>
        <name>rolex watches</name>
        <uri>http://www.rolexreplicas2u.com</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.rolexreplicas2u.com">
        <![CDATA[<p>Some things you just don't seem to have bothered researching. It wouldn't have taken a whole lot of digging to find out that designers charge from $500 to $1,500 for a book cover, for example.</p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-08-19T09:51:06Z</published>
  </entry>

  <entry>
    <id>tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677-comment:155105</id>
    <thr:in-reply-to ref="tag:www.readwriteweb.com,2009://1.15677" type="text/html" href="http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/bits_of_destruction_hit_book_publishing_part2.php"/>
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    <title>Comment from Sigrid Albert on 2009-08-29</title>
    <author>
        <name>Sigrid Albert</name>
        <uri>http://www.stepupcommunications.com</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.stepupcommunications.com">
        <![CDATA[<p>You've managed to not only denigrate the work of professional editors but also that of professional designers with this statement:</p>

<p>"3. Authors creating the finished product. Today, authors write and publishers look after the cover art and editing. If authors were to get 30% or more, they would have to take on these two other jobs. But in a world of desktop publishing tools and social networks to organize work and editing, this will not be hard."</p>

<p>I won't comment on behalf of editors but I have worked with enough of them to know how much goes into editing a book for style, tone, clarity and even content. Being an author vs. an editor are very different disciplines. The same is true for the visual aspects of a book. I have designed close to 200 books and covers over the last 15 years. </p>

<p>I realize that online and print-on-demand books will change the industry and the traditional editor/designer collaborative process. This process is shifting to a complete separation of content from design, which means templated, XML-based layouts, and medium- and audience-driven delivery of content. I see it coming, and I don't think it's a bad thing, and I am not overly worried about the need for professional design. </p>

<p>Someone will still have to create optimized layouts, just as is done for websites, whether they will be used as templates or are customized for high end delivery of equally high end content. The sky is the limit as to the layout options we may see in the future in electronic books. These options will only be used to their full potential by professionals specializing in user experience design. A more legible, more attractive, more intuitive design will always stand out and add value.<br />
 <br />
Even the most sophisticated desktop publishing tools do not make an author a designer. The greatest social network will not make an author an editor. It's not the tools, it's the education and experience that enable one to use the tools. <br />
Beyond that, there is a cultural component to the traditional printed book interface which has a universal human appeal, and the online publisher who best approximates that appeal and user experience in the new book media will do better than others who are lacking that cultural aspect.</p>

<p>I suggest that the role of the book designer will be changing, but will be more important than ever with the increasing visual sophistication of audiences and the increasing options in visual delivery.</p>

<p>Besides, now that we designers can self-publish our own books, we don't need expensive authors or publishers anymore. We can write and design our own content, and from there it's only a small step to world domination.</p>]]>
    </content>
    <published>2009-08-30T05:50:49Z</published>
  </entry>

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