The end of the year is typically a time for prediction posts. We have our own thoughts on what we expect the future to bring (which we will publish this week), but in this post we'll take a look at what some of our friends are discussing about the Web. While not everyone offers a prediction for 2009, we hope their wishes for the future of the Web and their thoughts on what's important right now inspire thought and discussion.
After asking some of the Web's brightest minds to predict the future of social media, Peter Kim compiled Social Media Predictions 2009 [PDF]. One of the predictions is by Chris Brogan who believes that 2009 will bring an end to the fight over a single sign in system.
Moving beyond OpenID, we'll have a sliced profile for social networks that will carry both our full profile plus the ability to break out specific segments for specific sites. I might not share my passion for beer on my church network, and I might not want to bring religion to my business social network.There will be some kind of "one ring" profile that will allow data pass through to the various places that use it. The reason this hasn't happened is that each company wants to own the database on the back end. Someone's going to win in 2009.
From the blog that watches Google's attempts to move your OS online, Alex Chitu offers 16 predictions for Google in 2009. Here are our favorite three:
Dave Kellogg, CEO of Mark Logic, suggests that many corporations have latched onto the blogging phenomenon as a means to regurgitate their standard corporate messages. Blogging this way doesn't work and if you're considering doing it - don't. As a CEO who has been blogging for over three years, Dave's words are well worth noting. His blogging style is also well worth emulating.
Dave's recommendations:
Cautiously optimistic, Om sees great potential in the online community Tip'd, the site that brings together the best news on the Web relating to all things finance.
From Om's post:
I find 3-5 headlines that grab my attention each day, of which maybe two are worth reading. Rarely do I find an article I would archive, as truly quality content is sparse. But this is a new service (it had 100,000 visitors in November, according to Compete), so I'm willing to be patient.If it can get itself embedded into the financial blog ecosystem the way Digg has plugged in the tech world, Tip'd could become a daily destination.
Talking with Robert Scoble about Twitter and FriendFeed, Matt talks about the addictiveness of instant gratification, and how he's looking forward to real time RSS and more interactive blog posts.
This is a partial transcript of the interview (at approx 03.33):
What I love about those two platforms is the instant gratification. You get that instant hit where people are replying to you right then, or you can drive a couple of hundred people to a link within 30 seconds. I think what they've done beautifully is the coupling of the writing and the reading.RSS is fantastic but it's a pull in technology. It's not real time. And so for years people have been talking about making RSS real time. I think that I'd like to get to a point where Twitter and FriendFeed are mechanisms for this, where blog posts become a lot more interactive. Like when you do a blog post, there is no reason that as many people that see your Twitter within the first five minutes shouldn't see your blog post in the first five minutes. But how it works now, is I go to my Google Reader twice a day and I see your new post - you don't get that hit that we're all becoming addicted to.
The complete video can be found here.
Duncan predicts that Uber blogs, blogs that combines different content streams into one large blog with one primary top level URL, will explode in 2009.
In 2009 big will be better. Not big networks of many sites, but big blogs that break out of the narrow niche focus that has been typical of commercial blogging until now, and instead go wide in content but focused on one brand and one URL.The rise of the uber blog will also mark the beginning of the time new media starts to surpass old media.
Rather than making predictions for 2009, the Pew Internet and American Life Project canvassed Internet specialists for their take on what we can expect in the year 2020.
Some of the predictions: The mobile phone will be the primary tool for connecting to the Internet; Voice recognition and touch technology will become more common, and Internet architecture will improve not by starting over, but by next-generation engineering of the network.
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Great post, I've already turn some out of these predictions into markets at http://askmarkets.com, you may go put your (play) money where your mouth is, or crowdsource the probability of occurrence of your predictions by creating your own markets, too. Thanx for your feedback!
Outstanding post, great you covered mostly all the social media experts :)
Submitted it to Digg !
Whatever the actual manifestation, the main phenomenon in 2009 will be a trending towards consolidated sources of relevant, well curated information. (Perhaps closest to Duncan Riley's prediction.) It's been a long time coming – the information overload is simply reaching a tipping point after which a whole new model will emerge. Today, people's "information problem" isn't access to information, it's the overabundance thereof. So that need to have a trusted source for the best content on a given subject (or niche, if you will) is getting all the more pressing.
Whether that's a "feed" of selected content streamed to a unified URL, or simply a more sophisticated, interactive and evolved blog-type of enterprise whose editorial quality is the much-needed filter for relevant information on a subject, we're to wait and see.
Or, if we're particularly driven, do.
Nice collection from the best sites...
I think we need to add the richness to the interaction level we can have through blogs...
Twitter do achieved it (if we consider it micro blogging) to some extent...
Keep posting such good stuff...
After having attended The Conversation and the International Film Festival Summit, as well as having read numerous articles and taking part in numerous discussions, I’ve been thinking about what 2009 might bring in terms of film distribution and consumption. Here’s a quick and dirty download of my thoughts as we head into the new year:
http://www.cinevegas.com/blog/?p=749
RE: Chris Brogan and the "single sign on" prediction.
I don't believe it, for a second. I'm old enough to remember MSFT Passport and the promise it would bring to the web and web based applications. One way to sign on to 1000's of websites.
From a customer perspective it was great.
From a competitive perspective it was nuclear. Few companies were willing to give one company (in this case MSFT) the power to control access to customer records etc..
While the consumer wants single sign on (may want it), companies will continue to want to own the customer and the customer's data. Giving it to some "single sign on in the sky" will not occur.
Shaun Dakin
@EndTheRobocalls
@IsCool
I think Social Networking will continue to grow, specifically niche social networking. However, I don't think the "One Ring" approch will gain much traction. OpenID has seemed to have fizzled out. Most people will join a handful of networks and make do with maintaining individual logins and profiles. I think the notion that people would want one profile across many different newotworks in misconceived. The old adage "never mix business and pleasure" will remain true.
Hey Tip'd is in there. Join at Tipd.com and submit Financial related content.
Regards: rizzy
http://twitter.com/rizzy81
Awesome post. excellent if think from a customer's point of view. need to be posted time by time with update content.
Great post as usual. And thanks for a fantastic 2008. Looking forward to follow you in 2009.
Here are also my predictions for 2009. This year I've choosen a broader perspective and not only digital communication:
http://www.ronnestam.com/2008/12/29/brand-and-communication-predictions-for-2009-by-johan-ronnestam/
Happy New Year.
nice
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=763vmCrRBDg
Very interesting observation and am sure that I will keep a close eye as everything unfold.
Thank you for the info.
Great prediction.
Google OS will take over Windows by 2010
15 industries you could sell to during the 2009 recession year. http://bit.ly/dtBq
You better sell to industries that can pay your invoices.
Sharing my tech predictions and ideas for 2009 and beyond
http://beerpla.net/2009/01/10/artems-top-10-tech-predictions-and-ideas-for-2009-and-beyond/.
Interesting post. A few days back I did something similar, but including 67 IT Predictions from around the web: http://www.valentinzacharias.de/blog/2009/01/year-of-cloud-synthesis-of-67-it.html; might be of interest to some.
It's rally good article sir, hope it gettin better