2009 Web Predictions
Written by Richard MacManus / December 30, 2008 10:00 AM
/ 49 Comments
It's time for our annual predictions post, in which the ReadWriteWeb authors look forward to what 2009 might bring in the world of Web technology and new media.
Looking back at our 2008 Web predictions, we got some of them right! "The big Internet companies will [embrace] open standards" (Google, Yahoo and others did this); "Mobile web usage will be a big story in 2008" (check!); "Web Services platforms will be a fierce battleground" (Microsoft Azure and Google App Engine were released and AWS grew). We also got some wrong, including most of our acquisition picks! Digg, Twitter, Zoho, Tumblr - all remain independent. Not to be deterred, we've made new acquisition predictions for '09... although the names will be familiar ;-)
So check out our predictions for '09 and please contribute your own in the comments.
Richard MacManus
- iTunes adds social networking features; but it's still a closed development system.
- Facebook signs up to OpenSocial; whether or not this happens, there's no doubt that Google will continue to collect big name supporters for the various open standards initiatives which it has started in the last couple of years.
- Yahoo sells to a big media company, but it won't be Microsoft; Yahoo getting bought is a big call and I hope I'm wrong about it - but e.g. I could see the likes of Rupert Murdoch swooping in if things get much worse for the former dot com high flyer.
- Microsoft releases a cool online version of Office, but then Google releases an amazing new version of Google Docs; Microsoft promised the first bit at PDC '08, but when that launches I forsee it being trumped soon after by Google releasing a more powerful version of its browser-based Google Docs. One that is comparable in user experience (but not features, because that is unnecessary) to MS Word. This new version of Google Docs may be limited to Chrome at first, but it will get a lot of attention and scare the bejeebers out of Redmond.
- Health web apps start getting attention from mainstream people and media; big breathless profiles from the likes of CNN, Time magazine, etc. Unfortunately health system red tape remains a tangly mess, for another year.
- Apps that do filtering, inferring and recommendation have a great year; several will release plug-ins for Google Reader, Twitter, Facebook and other 'sipping from the firehose' apps.
- The usual suspects will remain unacquired in '09: Digg, Twitter, Technorati. The one that does get bought is FriendFeed - by Google probably, given that it was created by ex-Googlers.
- Media properties prominently experiment with different and innovative types of online advertising; in other words the move beyond CPM starts to actually happen, due to the down economy, after years of CPA type predictions. Related, a stunning new metric will emerge that accurately determines the success of media properties beyond mere page views (ok that one's wishful thinking maybe!).
Marshall Kirkpatrick
- Lifestreams will continue to evolve; From the explosion of the newsfeed-powered Facebook to the experimental polling technology of FriendFeed, 2008 was a big year for the "lifestream" - the technology of aggregating data from all your activities on different social networks around the web. No one summed it up better than Mark Krynsky in his Lifestream Blog post The Year in Lifestreaming for 2008. In 2009, I'll be watching the parties above, but also MovableType's Motion, social media ping server Gnip, Strands on the iPhone and Chris Messina and friends' new working group on Activity Streams.
- Facebook will continue to surprise; I love to hate Facebook, but Mark Zuckerberg and company keep bringing me back to a state of...impressed. I wish open standards ruled the world, but Facebook Connect is so compelling that it can't be ignored. I'd like to see Data Portability prioritized a touch above full-blown privacy, but Facebook's relatively tame version of portability is getting real traction while others are stuck in the land of promises and proofs of concept.
- Big companies will have incentive to give OpenID more support because of Facebook's domination; Support has been relatively tepid in the past. When you're winning, open standards aren't in your interest. When you aren't, they become much more appealing. MySpace, AOL, Yahoo - all have made meaningful moves to support OpenID before, but now that Facebook is clearly dominating them all, I expect to see these companies make bigger moves towards OpenID and other standards.
- Have cake and eat it too solutions will emerge as a strong option; Have you seen JanRain's RPX plug-in? It lets users log in to a website using OpenID or proprietary methods, like Facebook Connect, through the same interface. It's really pretty, too. There are other examples of this kind of paradigm, but I expect to see them proliferate in the coming year.
- One or two interface developments will blow us away; The iPhone inspired countless people about user interfaces, unlike anything else has in a long time. Somebody's going to blow our minds again. Information overload alone demands radical innovation, and it's in the works all around the world. Maybe it will be Mozilla, maybe it will be in gaming, perhaps in Adobe AIR, or it could be in Microsoft's Silverlight. May it not be a brain implant.
Sarah Perez
- Twitter announces they have a plan to make money. They do.
- New iPhone is released with video recording capabilities.
- Facebook Connect becomes new de facto way to login to web sites.
- Google Reader gets themes.
- Digg still not acquired by anyone.
- New real-time web app launches that integrates Twitter, FriendFeed & more in ways we never could have imagined.
- Out of work journalists band together and create some killer blogs.
- Google Chrome adds plugins...one of them is a Google plugin that lets you integrate Google Mail, Reader, & other Google products/services right into the browser.
- Netbooks stay hot...get lighter, faster, thinner, but thanks to variable pricing from manufacturers, line between notebooks and netbooks blurs.
- Google backlash begins.
- Apple backlash does not.
- New iPods released...now with VOIP app built-in. AT&T concerned.
- Professional twitterer becomes a real job.
Bernard Lunn
- VCs jump onto the SAAS bandwagon, but most ventures don't need the cash.
- More Indian start-ups go global with price-smashing strategy.
- 2009 will be like 2002 for raising money or exiting.
- P2P shows value for reducing cost of server farms.
- Consumer and regulatory backlash make online privacy into a key differentiator for major players.
Frederic Lardinois
- Digg still won't be bought.
- Twitter will start to embed advertising into its users streams as it slowly becomes mainstream.
- Google will finally offer a comprehensive online storage solution and some kind of travel product.
- Lifestreaming apps like FriendFeed will remain niche products that only serve the early adopter market.
- Streaming web video to the living room will go mainstream.
- If Apple finally enables its push server, mobile social networks and geolocation enabled apps will become a major topic next year.
Lidija Davis
- Google loses goodwill, Yahoo gains.
- Microsoft resurrects WebTV after buying out Netflix.
- Mixx concentrates on usability and starts gaining ground on Digg.
- Facebook has one security incident too many, leading to a decline in popularity.
- The value of having a unified system for data portability and single sign-in services becomes unmistakable after a significant privacy breach.
Sean Ammirati
- Twitter will be acquired (probably by Facebook--but multiple suitors will compete for the deal).
- Due to new leadership and a slow economy that has people more focused on their professional network, LinkedIn will grow in the public's consciousness and more importantly grow their revenue dramatically.
- Exciting new open source projects will emerge and grow due to a growing number of un/under employed engineers.
- Unfortunately, Facebook Connect authentication will become dominant method for authentication on the web (while this is my prediction, I'm still rooting for a more open solution).
- Microsoft will launch a competing platform with Apple's App Store. The reaction from the market will be underwhelming.
Alex Iskold
- Twitter is going to continue to grow and eventually get acquired, while Facebook is going to see further decline.
- Amazon will further strengthen its position in the cloud computing market, by launching more of its Web Services and gaining more clients for existing ones.
- More contextual browsing technologies will hit the market powered by improved top-down semantic recognition engines.
- The browser wars will further heat up, with Google throwing marketing dollars and distribution deals behind Chrome.
Rick Turoczy
- With the economy continuing to tank, Microsoft will double-down on its Facebook investment, garnering more control of the company - and more access to the data being gathered through Facebook Connect.
- Google will finally solve the issues that have prevented its adoption of OpenID logins for all Google services. That, combined with EAUT, will make Gmail accounts the de facto login credential on the Web.
- One of the major gaming platform companies - Nintendo, Sega, Sony - will begin acquiring small iPhone development shops in an effort to translate titles to the iPhone format and to corner the market on iPhone gaming.
- Under pressure from iPhone, Android, Symbian, and RIM; Windows Mobile will attempt to reinvent itself. Unfortunately for Microsoft, it will be about as successful as Vista and the Zune.
- eBay - the Yahoo! of 2009 - oscillates between break-up and acquisition. After a great deal of drama, it will eventually be acquired by Amazon and incorporated into its seller storefront offering.
There you have it, the picks of the ReadWriteWeb team; what about your predictions? Let us know in the comments, so we can check who among us all has gloating rights at the end of 2009.
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I admire your courage to continue to make predictions considering last year's performance. You should realize you gave yourselves entirely too much credit for predicting correctly.
"big Internet companies will [embrace] open standards" (Google, Yahoo and others did this)"
>>If what these guys did was called "embracing" standards, then I embraced Uma Thurman (which I did not, she gave me a nod).
"Mobile web usage will be a big story in 2008" (check!)
>>Um, great prediction, who could have figured that one out? Do you all have Nostradamus in your basement? :)
"Web Services platforms will be a fierce battleground" (Microsoft Azure and Google App Engine were released and AWS grew)
>>Not even a battleground, let alone a fierce one. GAP just released pricing and is housing 99% hobby projects, while I don't know of any Azure customers at this point (maybe there are a few?). AWS grew their biz, as expected, but I have heard of zero battles for winning accounts. AWS is the only real option, there is no competition, and therefore, there was no battle.
These types of post are silly (and possibly of fun), but I question their value. I don't have any predictions because I try not make judgment calls when I do not have enough information and I'm not going to do what some of the folks in this post have done and predict things on certain company's road maps (eg. Chrome extensions, Twitter monetization).
Posted by: coldbrew | December 30, 2008 10:34 AM
Thanks coldbrew, I bet you'll be the life of your new years party. Lighten up :-)
Good post. Richard looks like has put some thought into article. I like
Google chrome with google docs is very good one
iTunes going social is also another good one.
FriendFeed, Twitter, Digg, Techcrunch are all noise makers
I still think margins are so small in amazon model. I not sure Amazon approach to services will work. You need 80-90% gross profits for software companies dip into service model. Right at this moment it is still hosting model which we know really does not work very well. I am sure it will still morph into something else.
Posted by: Observer | December 30, 2008 11:16 AM
Really hope you meant "bottom-up" instead of "top-down". ;-)
Posted by: Michael P. Gusek | December 30, 2008 11:44 AM
Posts like this are fun, partly because of the rich vein of silliness. For example, pro Twitterer will never be a real job, even if it pays someone real money.
Posted by: Andrew | December 30, 2008 11:51 AM
Taking all these predictions into consideration, let me just make sure I've got this:
1. Twitter will or will not be acquired.
2. Facebook will or will not stay on top of the social networking heap.
3. Things will get better or worse for Yahoo!
...
:-)
I'll put my chips on Bernard Lunn's predictions. They also seem like some of the most helpful for start-up entrepreneurs to think about.
BTW, 2008 was a great year of RWW reading. Thanks for all the great articles.
Posted by: Scott Brinker | December 30, 2008 11:51 AM
Am I the only person in the world that requires bookmarking functionality within iTunes for the iTMS? If Apple only made one change to iTunes next year, I wish it was that.
Posted by: Ray Scott | December 30, 2008 12:14 PM
Sarah Perez's prediction make sense.
Will see...
Posted by: Alihan Çetin | December 30, 2008 12:48 PM
1) OpenID wins out over Facebook Connect. Why? I'd believe I'll still be using my OpenID enabled service (hopefully GMail) long after I've grown tired of Facbook.
2) Apple don't release a new version of the iPhone. They also admit to having no plans for an iPhone Nano. To me, the concept is about as plausible as a touch-screen laptop. Silly.
3) Staying on Apple, they release a social network integrated with their MobileMe service :)) (Maybe not 2009, but mark my words, this will happen)
4) Google integrate their online services with Chrome. Totally agree with you on this one Sarah.
5) Movable Type kicks WordPress's butt and makes massive inroads with the release of Motion.
6) Android will prove you need more than just a bit of open code to create a phenomenon by totally failing against the iPhone.
7) Twitter will solve the problem of noise by implementing folders or streams. Call it what you want.
8) BrightKite goes mainstream before Twitter. hehe.
9) We will see Enterprise collaboration services like SocialText surge and redefine the way businesses communicate and stucture themselves internally.
10) People become bored with Facebook, and decide to invest more time in the new Apple TV that will be released early in the new year.
11) Apple actually acknowledge that there are users outside the US that would like their own bloody tethering app thank you very much! And this becomes a reality.
12) Robert Scoble gets banned from Twiiter. Twitter service improves by 300% as a result. An intervention is staged.
Posted by: Ray Scott | December 30, 2008 1:13 PM
Down with RPX long live openid selector. Althought OIS was hosted, I just dont like the feeling that my site could depend on a subscription-based service to provide something as simple as logging in.
Why do I want Openid again? I think I'll trade in for FC and GC.
Posted by: Ivan | December 30, 2008 1:50 PM
I'm a little confused by the commenter above. Betting on not using Facebook in some form in the future because they're tied to a social site right now is like saying "I'm never buying Apple again, because I wont need Apple IIe's in the future."
Posted by: Ivan | December 30, 2008 1:52 PM
@Ivan you must be easily confused then. This might come as a big shock to you, but not everyone belongs to Facebook. *gasp*
Posted by: Ray Scott | December 30, 2008 2:26 PM
heres a couple of mine,
people will stop talking about mobile being the next big thing and start talking about tv as the next big thing.
Microsoft will buy twitter (it just fits the new MS)
apple will announce net tablet (basically a bigger iphone).
people will realise that these stupid connect systems are useless.
facebook will get into the music business selling and hosting drm free music
The nokia n76 will be disappointing :(
HTC will release a nice android phone.
MS will realise that they should have a better way of upgrading windows mobile software and actually start making it good (I own a windows htc phone and it could be so much more, whoever runs that division should be fired).
Posted by: Darren | December 30, 2008 2:52 PM
Some great predictions here, in particular the health web apps and Google backlash. Many more echo some of my own predictions.
My big game changing prediction is that Facebook will reposition itself as a portal, potentially acquire Netvibes, and leverage Microsoft's Live Search as its main revenue stream.
The downstream result is that Microsoft passes Yahoo! for second in search share which triggers merger talks (again!) which could be consummated and thereby giving Google a real competitor.
The rest of my predictions are on Blind Five Year Old:
http://www.blindfiveyearold.com/2009-internet-and-technology-predictions
If your finger is tired of clicking, here's the cliff notes version.
Identity Systems Fail
Video Advertising Succeeds
Microformats Go Mainstream
Banner CTR Becomes Obsolete
RSS Adoption Spikes
Kindle 2.0 Flops
Google Search Share Stalls
FriendFeed Surpasses Twitter
Someone ‘Dies’
Posted by: AJ Kohn | December 30, 2008 3:32 PM
MacManus,
Hey, "lighten up" is my line ;-) I didn't realize this was a light-hearted, entertainment blog...my comment was meant as a good-natured ribbing, but html doesn't do sarcasm very well. I guess I may come across more confrontational than conversational, but I assure you it is the latter.
I still think it is funny that people "predict" things that are clearly on the road-maps of the companies in question.
P.S. The party doesn't start *here* for another 24 hrs :-)
Posted by: coldbrew | December 30, 2008 3:40 PM
Companies to cut cost will use more software as a service applications such as
Manymoon www.manymoon.com ( Project and Task Collaboration )
Salesforce
Google Apps
Browser based computing will be the next generation for software applications!!!!
Posted by: Steve | December 30, 2008 3:56 PM
I'm 100% with Rick Turoczy - for now, it's all upwards for the iPhone, and all downwards for Microsoft. But longer-term (i.e. late 2009-10), let's see what Android can do, starting with encouraging better handsets. As for eBay, I've got nothing left to sell, and I can't afford to buy much new stuff. Anyone else?
Posted by: uncle wally | December 30, 2008 4:40 PM
@coldbrew, oh no hard feelings. My comment was meant in a light-hearted way too. My point was only that you shouldn't take this post too seriously, it's fun to try and predict the future. But my standard response to comments that criticize is to flip the question back: what would *you* predict for 2009? ;-)
google apple facebook twitter apple twitter facebook.
:)
Posted by: Jamie | December 30, 2008 6:15 PM
I like 2009 will see the rise of the professional twitterer
Posted by: Mark | December 30, 2008 7:12 PM
I did a similar article.. but myne was more focused on online in South Africa (where I live)..
Thought u might find it an interesting read:
http://blog.codeninja.co.za/110/my-predictions-for-digital-trends-in-2009/
Posted by: Gerhard | December 30, 2008 8:58 PM
I´ve been working on several sources Predictions, or web tendences for 2009 in Spanish media in two entries: Tendencias para la web en 2009 and
2009: Blogs corporativos y blogs de segunda generación: Uber blogs.Thanks for share and have all a good 2009.
Posted by: dreig
|
December 30, 2008 10:55 PM
I'd like to see more personalized filters on Twitter
Posted by: Mehmet Ali | December 31, 2008 12:08 AM
All is well that ends well for 2008
Posted by: Fred | December 31, 2008 12:16 AM
1) Twitter
- Acquire a twitter client (tweetdeck?) to make it into the enterprise space
- Acquire a twitter meme tool (twitscoop?) so that mainstream users actually understand what it's all about and find ways to interact (watching twitter via something like twitscoop will become the new "TV")
- Start offering b2b solutions based on the above two (+ search).
- Start to include advertising in the users streams (not only contextual, but rather based on the perceived interests of a given twitter' follower - so highly personalised)
- Get acquired by Google in H2 2009
2) Facebook
- Continue to grow its userbase
- See a decline in # of third party applications created
- Bid on twitter, but loose it to Google
3) Google
- Is perceived as more evil than ever
- Acquire a small startup that will launch "a stunning new metric that accurately determines the success of media properties beyond mere page views" in Q1. I'm convinced there is at least one startup working on this and close to finding the solution. This new metric may include social aspects (like social graph etc.)
4) Yahoo
- Their stock drops to $2.5, at which point it gets swooped by Murdoch
- Drop their search engine and focus on UGC
5) Ebay gets acquired by Amazon
6) Digg
- Launch a break-thru new feature or die - or;
- Acquire TechMeme and integrate their algo
7) Apple
- Launch a real video game device and have a stunning 2009
- BUT in 2010 become the Google of 2009 (ie. more evil ^^)
I think that's it for me!
Posted by: Josh Goldberger | December 31, 2008 1:25 AM
I feel little bit reality in it. Things are supposed to go in this way.
Richard, I believe in your predictions although i have read coldbrew.
Posted by: Arun Gangwar | December 31, 2008 3:58 AM
What? No mention of Adobe Flex suddenly becoming the tool of choice for new web development. You must not have seen www.lymabean.com ...
Way too little mention of monetization of social media. I predict an innovative new application of existing technology that takes social media monetization by storm in the third quarter of 09....(any VC want to get on board watch my site)
Posted by: victorseo | December 31, 2008 5:28 AM
Predictions are hard, and in many cases hopes in disguise. So why not just do a Hopes for 2009 list. Here are mine:
Posted by: eelcoh | December 31, 2008 6:46 AM
I think we all need Yahoo to stand or else we have to dependent on google...which I don't think would be good for industry.
I personally see Microsoft getting into the groove..and make some serious effort in search segment.
Twitter going to be good...I also see google starting paid adds for online casino and gambling....
and last but not the least....me bringing a product that can create some good buzz...:)
Posted by: whatnwhen | December 31, 2008 7:39 AM
Great post and replies. Thanks.
Wish you Happy New Year 2009.
Posted by: joy antony | December 31, 2008 7:43 AM
Excellent predictions, we shall see :)
Posted by: Geoff | December 31, 2008 7:47 AM
Facebook will loose appeal
Posted by: Tony | December 31, 2008 7:49 AM
The iTunes Prediction is pretty cool. I will be tracking that one.
RichM
http://www.mypetvideos.tv/ThePublicWorks
Posted by: Rich M | December 31, 2008 9:50 AM
http://pl.youtube.com/watch?v=dWRXbx4oczc&feature=related
Posted by: jod | December 31, 2008 9:52 AM
Like watching Conan O'Brien circa 1999...
"In the year 2000" man will forgo the automobile and instead will travel by rocket powered lazy-boy!"
We shall see...
Posted by: PulSamsara | December 31, 2008 9:17 PM
Lots of goodies in this post. A suggestion when you all publish in the same post would be some sort of common set up. I'd love to be able to compare your thoughts in a better way.
@eelcoh
Great list!
My personal list (not only web) is:
1. Technology becomes a commodity and ideas prosper from it
2. In 2009 print and outdoor advertising grow stronger while TV continues to die.
3. Communication Capitalism is born in 2009
4. Online advertising suffers from lack of competence and will slow down in 2009 for the first time in years
5. SEO / SEM freelancers organize themselves
6. Apple launches the iPhone Pro and starts selling iPhone and rate plans in iTunes.
7. Facebook Connect and Google Friend Connect continue to grow but Friendfeed Friends might be the winner in 2009
8. Branding is being reevaluated in 2009
9. Mashups grow up and conquer the corporate world.
Full details:
http://www.ronnestam.com/2008/12/29/brand-and-communication-predictions-for-2009-by-johan-ronnestam/
Posted by: Johan Ronnestam | January 1, 2009 5:44 AM
absolutely one thing:
1. fizy.org will kick last.fm's ass.
Posted by: Amy Myers | January 2, 2009 6:15 AM
Wow! Thanks guys. Lots to think about.
My predition for the big thing of '09 is SaaS ... makes sence for business' looking to cut costs during a difficult period to move some of thier software to a licence & hardware free model.
Posted by: mikkahail.pip.verisignlabs.com
|
January 2, 2009 6:53 PM
Technology may stage a rally. The sector as a whole has never recovered since the bubble burst in 2000, yet e-commerce is still growing fast. Internet shopping is fast overtaking high street, as retailers feel the pinch.
Last year commodities saw a similar speculative distortion of prices, before crashing in the autumn. Economic factors are cyclical, Technology may lead the way to a recovery.
Posted by: Mark Antony | January 3, 2009 3:03 AM
There has been a lot of predictions for 2009. This is first time I have stumbled upon you site and I really do not know why I have not found it earlier:)
Maybe twitter will be acquired by MS
Google will Stall, I agree
More Noobs
Some will get sick of FaceBook
Consolidation of some Social Media Companies
Single ID, I don't think so
Here is what I think will happen in 2009 Nostradamus 2009
Posted by: ditesco | January 3, 2009 2:00 PM
Region Restricted Content big problem outside US
The amount of region restricted content to increase dramaticly. Increased awareness by Internet users outside of US as they will be most affected. Could cause backlash towards US websites with US only content (mostly TV, movies etc).
Posted by: mikkahail.pip.verisignlabs.com
|
January 3, 2009 2:03 PM
should be fun to check these at the start of next year! one more could be more than 50% users use browsers other than IE by the end of 2009.
Posted by: Interesting Blog | January 4, 2009 1:06 AM
- About Perez (10), the marginal effect of ethics on behaviour is overestimated. With Docs, Reader, Gmail, etc., Google is already at the Microsoft point: people will use their stuff even while proclaiming the parent company is evil. Moreover, unlike Netscape, Google hasn't stagnated on the innovation front even on spaces they dominate. Reader is constantly improved and they added graphic gizmos to Gmail just to prove a point. Google's "evilness tipping point" is much higher than, say, Digg's.
- I hope McManus (6) comes true. "Lifestreaming" is write-only for me right now, even when it comes to close friends and loved ones.
- Lunn's (3) pretty much contradicts his (1) -- the corner case being that saas is such a tiny business that it doesn't show up in the aggregate picture.
- Lardinois (5) has already come true as far as I'm concerned. It's the living room that's becoming outdated. I hope the trend for new urbanism and better public spaces deepens and getting our laptops out becomes routine.
- Davis (3) is half-likely. Mostly these kinds of sites become overcrowded and break their lock-in on users. Thus Reddit got some crowd from Digg, news.ycombinator got some of the original crowd from Reddit and heaven knows where the original news.ycombinator dwellers are now. Mixx seems to be getting larger (I'm getting referrals even though I only submit my entries to reddit and news.ycombinator), but my modified guessing the implicit thematic division (Reddit for politically active people in any of its subreddit fields -- men's rights, net neutrality, DRM, etc., news.ycombinator for nerdier stuff still, with a startup tilt to it) becomes more explicit -- like Tipd. Mixx will probably naturally fall into some niche.
- Ammirati (2) makes no sense at all. People will probably just become more "professional" in their Facebook and Orkut (huge in Brazil, where I dwell); a lower lock-in barrier will force these sites to add "professional" CV-matching, etc. tools to compete.
- Iskold (4) is just tunnel vision. I'm as geeky as they come (I do most of my file managing from the bash prompt, if that's a significant datapoint), but I use Safari because it's what came on my laptop. The 90s called and they want their evangelist enthusiasm back.
- Turoczy (1) is probably right. Every time when lowering the lock-in barrier made Microsoft better-off, their efforts worked. They freaking opened the hardware architecture in the 80s.
- Turoczy (5) is USA-centric. Yahoo escalates globally (the ad brokerage business can be expanded by simply renting an office and opening a bank account in every country they want to support), while eBay doesn't (shipping costs and enforcement risk makes online auction local. Brazil's MercadoLivre even advertises on TV).
The big unknown about 2009 is how far governments let schumpeterian creative destruction run amok. They will probably stifle innovation to some point (subsidizing industries and erecting trade barriers), and breakaway rampage will happen anyway -- we just don't know how far each force goes. May we live long and lucky.
Posted by: Diego Navarro | January 5, 2009 6:14 AM
Inspired directly by this all of you here, please enjoy my month-by-month account of the year to come:
http://agitationist.com/2009-predictions-for-the-interweb
And don't take the teasing too seriously, it's all in fun. Still, does "Facebook continues to surprise" count as a prediction? Come on, Marshall!
Posted by: Agitationist | January 5, 2009 8:42 AM
I think Microsoft will release an online office application (like Richard predicted above), but it won't ONLY be shadowed by a new Google Docs release, but also an Apple online application iWork suite.
Posted by: Kevin | January 7, 2009 10:32 AM
Cell phone companies will begin to move away from Windows Mobile. Bye, bye Microsoft. They will embrace both Nokia's Symbian and Palm's Nova. I know the latter is a reach, but it is nonetheless, my prediction for 2009.
Posted by: JunkDog | January 7, 2009 12:16 PM
I really see no point and no value on Facebook at all, it will just go to bankruptcy if it will not succedeed with Microsoft's partnership.
Posted by: Me | January 10, 2009 7:51 AM
Excellent www.youtube.com
Posted by: eli | January 13, 2009 2:42 AM
Great blog. It helps people like me,that evaluate the impact of emerging trends to the financial sector, to keep track of the top web emerging trends. Any predictions for mobile payments in 2009?
Posted by: Ilieva Ageenko | January 17, 2009 7:56 AM