2010 Predictions
Every year the ReadWriteWeb team tries its hand at predicting the future. Looking back at our 2009 predictions, we got some wrong (I predicted that Facebook would sign up to OpenSocial) but others turned out to be on the money. I correctly guessed that the usual suspects would remain unacquired in '09 - Digg, Twitter, Technorati - but that FriendFeed would get bought. OK, so I guessed that Google would be the buyer. But close enough!
Without further ado, here are our predictions for 2010. We'd love to read your predictions in the comments.
SEE ALSO: ReadWriteWeb's 2009 Year in Review. This series features our readers' picks for the top products of 2009, our editorial selections for the best BigCo and best LittleCo of '09, and our most promising company for 2010.
Richard MacManus, Founder & CEO, @rww
1. There will be a breakthrough consumer application for Internet of Things - involving the iPhone, RFID tags and a major consumer product such as books or groceries. In general, Internet of Things will ramp up in 2010, with thousands more everyday objects becoming connected to the Internet.
2. Google will acquire PostRank and promptly consign it to the same graveyard Feedburner went to.
3. Microsoft will acquire Wolfram|Alpha and Bing will continue to make small gains in the search market. Google will be distracted by increasing consumer complaints about content farms polluting Google search results.
4. A price war will erupt in the e-book market and Amazon.com will offer the lowest prices, leading to it gaining a dominant position in the market with its Kindle E-book Reader.
5. Google will partner with a large PC manufacturer from Asia, which will launch an inexpensive netbook powered by Chrome OS in the U.S. market. It will become a hot consumer item among school kids and university students.
Marshall Kirkpatrick, Lead Writer & VP of Content Development, @marshallk
1. Google Wave will win some respect back as people discover valuable uses for it and get used to the user experience.
2. Facebook will open aggregate-user-profile and social-graph data for outside analysis.
3. Some serious user interface innovations will blow our minds.
4. Data portability will become more real, standard, expected and viable.
5. A new social network will rise to join the big ones. It may offer the privacy that Facebook is moving away from; it may be mobile and location-centric; it may focus on personal content recommendations.
Sarah Perez, Feature Writer, @sarahintampa
1. MySpace doesn't quite make a comeback, but gets a fresh start of sorts with its music and entertainment offerings. The Gen Y/Gen Z demographic sees growth on the site but the network's overall numbers continue to decline.
2. Twitter launches ads.
3. TweetDeck finally launches a web version and becomes the number one Twitter client other than Twitter.com.
4. Cloud computing heats up. AWS, Google, Microsoft and others begin price wars to compete for customers.
5. The iPhone still rules and grabs more mobile market share than ever before.
6. Meanwhile, Android becomes the number two mobile platform by year-end.
7. iPhone app backlash begins. There are too many worthless apps and no decent way to find the good ones. Then Apple surprises us with a brand-new feature that improves greatly upon their "genius" offering to help us find new and useful apps via iTunes.
8. iTunes announces a web service, thanks to the Lala acquisition.
9. Spotify finally gets the green light in U.S. and people go nuts for it.
10. The netbook craze dies down. People start buying new "in-between" devices that are slightly larger and more powerful than today's netbooks, but smaller, more lightweight and cheaper than regular notebooks. Features like better processors, separate GPUs and SSD HD options set these new "ultra portable" devices apart from the traditional netbook, but they're still often called "netbooks" because of their size. Market confusion ensues.
Jolie O'Dell, Writer & Community Manager, @jolieodell
1. MySpace relaunches as a content network, leveraging the bands and filmmakers they already have on board and dropping the emphasis on social networking.
2. Twitter will find a monetization model and launch things like ads and pro features.
3. Facebook will become the Borg. Its number of users will continue to climb until the network is as ubiquitous as Google and lay people confuse Facebook with "the Internet." They'll make more money and control more data than ever before.
4. iPhone's exclusivity with AT&T will come to a breaking point and we'll see network-agnostic iPhones.
5. On the bright side, 2010 will signal the death of the login. Third-party authentications will become the norm, and user data will be entrusted to a discrete handful of online properties. Users will pitch a hissyfit if ever they're asked to create a username and password and upload an avatar. After all, doesn't the Internet know they have a Facebook?
6. File-sharing will continue to be shut down around the world; by 2011, we'll all be downloading via Tor and the U.S. will have instituted a lame three-strikes-no-Internet policy.
7. Cybercrime will be more of an issue than ever. Expect to see a major governmental security breach in 2010, as the government continues to adopt 2.0 tech without strong and permanent infosec personnel and procedures in place.
Dana Oshiro, ReadWriteStart Writer, @SuzyPerplexus
1. AR: Geo-locational games and AR will come together in 2010. We're going to see strange behavior from those playing zombie shooter games on their commutes.
2. Agree with Sarah: Netbooks and gadgets like the PsiXpda are going to gain ground.
3. Mobile Music: Offline music caching will be expected of all streaming music apps.
4. The browser really will be the new OS.
5. Payment Systems: Between Square, PayPal X and advances in Internet TV, we're going to see payment options integrated in unlikely places.
Alex Williams, ReadWriteEnterprise Writer, @podcasthotel
1. Cloud computing will go through a shake out. There are just too many companies out there for the market to sustain. The big players will go on a buying spree. The consolidation will deeply affect users. Some companies will fold overnight. Users will lose access to their data, leading to a whole new wave of skepticism about cloud computing. But it won't be enough to slow down the move to cloud computing. More companies will consider the security risks as less of a factor, compared to the cost benefits and potential for innovation. Cloud computing technology will become more of a commodity. The business applications for cloud computing will take center stage.
2. The big players will come back strong. IBM, SAP and Microsoft will innovate just enough to show big gains with customers.
3. Consumer-based social networks will make big efforts to gain wider access to the enterprise, as more companies seek to open up to the social Web. The information architecture of social networks will change to accommodate the greater degrees of control that the enterprise requires. This will bring on the rise of "social middleware" - services that act as a layer between social networks and the enterprise.
4. A new breed of social networks will emerge that act as one-stop shops for applications and services. These will look more like marketplaces than social hubs for conversations around the proverbial virtual water cooler. SaaS leaders will face off for this growing market.
5. iPhone, Android or the Blackberry? I expect the Android to be the talk of the enterprise, especially if the Google Phone does make it to market. Such a phone would eliminate carrier costs and break down walled gardens that have limited application development.
Sean Ammirati, COO, @SeanAmmirati
1. Facebook will go public and the IPO will be a huge financial success.
2. Hyperlocal advertising will heat up, delivering another nail in the traditional newspaper industry's coffin. (Very similar to one of my 2008 predictions, but this time focused on the advertising aspects.) Specifically, it will be more common for a local establishment to pay marketing dollars to Yelp or FourSquare, for example, then their local newspaper.
3. Apple will release an "iTablet" and the world will be a better place for it. OK, more accurately we'll all think the world is a better place for it.
4. Agree with Jolie regarding "the death of the login." I'm hoping for open distributed alternatives along with Facebook and a handful of others.
5. Between Boxee's continued development and a new AppleTV (hopefully synched with their iTablet), it will become much more common to enjoy the Internet on a TV.
Elyssa Pallai, Marketing & Experience Manager, @boulderservices
1. Skype becomes increasingly pervasive, as the younger generations force their parents to get online, and consumers find new and interesting ways to cut costs and save money.
2. Software as service becomes ever more popular, as businesses and governments choose to focus on their core business and realize the benefits of lightweight technologies in the cloud - including rapid deployment and the low cost of switching.
3. The online user experience has a renaissance, as web browsers and hardware become more sophisticated and designers and developers take advantage of that.
4. The growth of Internet of Things continues, RFID tags in everything. The initial bugs will make funny things happen all around us.
5. iPhones and other smartphones become the purchasing tool of choice.
6. Consumers bypass carriers and create open wifi networks for all (which is already happening but not en mass).
Jared Smith, Webmaster, @jaredwsmith
1. Backlash against the App Store causes more and more developers to defect to Android and competing platforms.
2. Google Chrome's market share increases at Firefox's expense. Internet Explorer continues to lose ground as more rich, HTML5-aware Web apps spring up on the scene.
3. Opera begins to struggle, as WebKit becomes the rendering engine of choice on mobile devices.
4. Social analytics features explode onto the scene in 2010. Twitter opens Pro accounts, including analytics and an API to access them. Google strikes a deal to integrate Twitter analytics with its Google Analytics product.
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2010 Prediction:
My father in law still won't be on the internet yet.
3. Facebook will become the Borg. Its number of users will continue to climb until the network is as ubiquitous as Google and lay people confuse Facebook with “the Internet.” They’ll make more money and control more data than ever before.
This is what scares me the most because I already see it happening with friends and family not as familiar with how networks function compared to most readers of this blog. It will be a growing challenge to get people to step outside of FB, especially if their primary online use consists of starting there.
Re. PostRank, that's a bit depressing. And perhaps a tad evil?)
That said, for a billion dollars, I think we'd manage to finish out the year with a smile on our faces. ;)
In the mean time I think we'll keep working on good stuff...
I'm very surprised that only one of you - Sean - mentioned the iTablet or some type of Apple tablet.
My prediction is that some company - other than Apple - will release a tablet based netbook using Google Chrome OS and be under $400. Possibly, offered by Google itself.
Here we go:
- It will be IPO hypeville
- digg will be bought by media group
- microsoft will start to support sign ins with other services for the net passport (twitter and facebook)
- the twitter api pattern will be everywhere.
- Office wars round 2
- towards the end of the year people will get bored of twitter and start to look for something else (friendfeed sold out to early as it could of been them).
I definitely agree with Sean Ammirati that enjoying the Internet on a TV will become more common - and conversely, so will enjoying TV via the Internet, with an ongoing variety of devices.
1. Variants of Google's Nexus One phone will be released, one includes Qualcomm's gobi chip, the other runs on 700Mhz public access frequency
2. With Google's hiring of Joseph Smarr being just the tip of the iceberg, the world will (slowly) begin to grok the revolutionary implications of implicit and explicit intentions by consumers through their DiSo formatted activity streams
3. Context ( finding meaning and value in the firehose of data that the real time web provides ) will continue to vex everyone, with no solution in sight.
No real word on the continued slippage of Microsoft as a technological super power? They are taking major hits from every direction: browser, Office, OS, server, mobile... Win7 won't stop the bleeding so what will?
@ujdmc
Microsoft who?
I agree with Richard, Dana & Elyssa. The Internet of Things will see mainstream consumer appeal through the use of AR combined with ultra-low power wireless sensing capabilities like DASH7. This will provide not only an enhanced augmented reality experience but also new options for advertisers to deliver loyalty programs, coupons, and more. Think Google Favorite Places you can use without getting out of your car.
Richard,
I am so with you on the RFID front. I see NFC adoption at a high rate due to mobile devices like the iPhone and the Nexus One.
Marshal,
I agree with you on a new social network work. I think that would be Foursquare. Yes, I know you said new but they are only a year old.
As for me, I think that Skype and Ford SYNC will join services so we can make wireless phone calls from our Ford SYNC enabled cars.
1. Apple will go after ebook share with the release of an iTablet and it will be an iTunes vs. Amazon battle.
2. Augmented reality + geo location + sixth sense technology + RFID will create some incredible "local" mashups for shopping and entertainment.
— We'll start expressing concerns about all aspects of our lives being recorded/broadcast.
And while we're fine with other people who wish to do so, we'll run into conflicts when we request that we not be included without our express consent; i.e. getting tagged in Facebook; having our attendance at parties documented; having events we're involved in being tweeted, etc.
— There will be a bigger push to make free WiFi/3G available, but the corps will (like the music industry) be hesitant, and will further delay the potential. They're still charging premium prices for Text Msgs, for pete's sake.
I dont think the google phone will eliminate carrier costs... because we still need data plans to use the google phone with VOIP.
If anything, the cost of data plans will increase as carriers try to fight off the google phone taking their pie.
I see me2everyone.com gaining more grounds by end of 2010.
I'd love to see Twitter Pro roll out early in the year. My predictions:
1. Brands will see participating in social media as standard and no longer optional.
2. Online monitoring will become even more rigorous as everyone adjusts to the world being handed to them in real-time.
3. Facebook will improve Pages to give administrators greater access to insights and information about their Fans.
Perhaps 2 to 3 years away still is the long-overdue move of peer-reviewed research publishing away from journals to online analogs to open source.
The availability of research based methodologies / solutions across various job sectors & entities (health, education, freedom of information act, EPA, climate change, etc) will inform stakeholders' professionalism as well as their capacity to remain informed.
What we're betting on is that 2010 will be the year that 'social media for social good' really takes off.
Right now we've seen a lot of companies built around old models using new media effectively - but still around an old model. I think 2010 will be the year that even more new businesses are built around social communities - for social good.
Online Advertising
1. The NZ Govt embraces social media with gusto (due to perceived cheapness and popularity) but most campaigns #fail
2. Some successes in NZ Govt web delivery yet 1 or 4 projects still frustratingly under deliver for the cost and time.
3. An NZ politician/Celebrity screw up majorly on Twitter/Facebook while engaging with audience.
4. Mobile spam becomes a public issue.
5. RFID for prisoners.
The Environment
1. In NZ 5 or 6 species become extinct (Maui's Dolphins, Fairy Terns, a native fish, possibly a deep sea fish, and a number of plants).
2. NZ Govt backs down on mining national parks, but then immediately floats other environmentally damaging projects.
3. John Key relaunches himself as the saviour of the NZ environment then does nothing, but floats environmentally damaging projects.
4. Simultaneous cyclones (Climate Change) hit New Zealand and people die because of poor response times due to over stretched resources.
I see multiple but interconnected genre social networks forming, along the lines of old-fashioned message boards or email lists. Subject/topic/hobby specific ones which can take these Web 1.0 groups of online friends into the 2.0 world of social networking without being just a subset of a larger group like Facebook or Twitter. Or a site like Ning which offers more targeted social networks will grow in popularity once it controls spamming.
I think the existing social networks which lump all of our social connections into one big pool are primed to fracture into more intimate conversation groups. I know I use Facebook less now that everyone from old high school friends to ex-coworkers to family members to online acquaintances are in my network there. Too many different audiences that know me from different parts of my life.
Having one large social network as opposed to many is convenient but means that a lot of communication is superficial and generic. At least it has become that way, in my view, over the past year, year and a half.
Lots of opinions about social networking but nothing about the technology that they sit on. My prediction is about web server software. I'm seeing it happen already. There will be a shift from web servers like IIS and Apache to servers like Nginx and Node.js. Even further, we'll see more decentralized instances of these used as the core for stand alone, HTTP responding applications, all to support social networks and The Internet of Things. Asynchronous programming will be all the rage.
If even half of these things come true, our digital lives should hopefully become significantly more efficient and less of a sometimes-headache
The predictions for the year 2010 are really awesome to think about, how many of these actually come true is something we will see in 2010.
Regarding "the death of the login"...
That won't happen until the big players not only provide OpenID accounts but also accept them. Right now, you can't sign into Google, Facebook or Twitter with an OpenID account. Sure, you can use your Google account or Facebook account to sign into other services. But neither wants to let go of controlling who you are online, of being that central identity that connects you to the rest and acts as the hub of your online life. And neither wants to combine with the other. This makes the adoption of 'one log-in to rule them all' very slow, very unlikely and very confusing. And should there ever be an OpenID security breach, or even a scare, then it may be over before it really gets started.
Thank you so much for sharing this insight with us, It's so exciting to see what others think how marketing is going to emerge in 2010. This is really an incredible information, i like it..
My bet would be the break trough of skype in business. In combination with professional tools (http://www.iris2iris.com/en-UK/home.htm)
My prediction would be for a wider spread of mobile data networks into the rural areas. I have no problem in the cities w/data plans, but out in the country (where I live)...it's another story. I hope with the increase in smartphones, data coverage increases as well and casts a wider net over all of us with increased 3G/4G networks. One enterprising mobile carrier will do so, and through this, be able to take on bigger carriers in a Wal-Mart model of conquering the rural areas first, then moving into more heavily populated areas. This company would be able to truly boast of more bars in more places. :)
Nice analysis but I was expecting a solid comments from the experts of RWW.
I have been reading RWW from a long time and I am very happy with it but I was expecting an indepth analysis of the new happenings of 2010.
For example everyone knows apple is launching iTablet and Google chrome will come in market and will create buzz.
I was expecting some kind of information which had not caught my eye yet.
Anyway, no disappointments as you have covered a large amount of area in technology field.
Keep blogging.
============
Hardik
A brazilian startup will globally launch an awesome app for better reading, filtering, discovering and sharing blog posts and news stories and everybody will love it and quit google reader. That's what i wish :)
Richard, great post. Quite inspiring tot he extent that we did our predictions for the "online video"..
10 Online Video Predictions for 2010 -- http://bit.ly/65BjfE
- Twitter acquired by Google/MS
- Yahoo and MS in a tighter marriage
- IBM will acquire SaaS/PaaS/SOHO company
- A telecom major will acquire a utility computing company
- A new challenger in search and real time market will emerge
- A second dip in US economy will wipe out a lot of emerging players
- The fight for Web users will start in India with all major international players trying to expand their market share
- IT services will get challenged to evolve and one of the big 5 will announce a major change in their model influenced by SaaS and cloud computing
- Private clouds will get higher adoption than public cloud
- A major security breach with a could provider will increase the fear among customers and
- An Indian Major will acquire a reasonably big US web company
- Major breakthroughs in clean tech will change the energy game
Nobody predicts anything about China on the Internet?
One day there will be more people from India or from China on the Internet than the rest of the world.
irs,
- phones will downsize and screens will become adjustable
- social networks will become " trained " and tightened up becoming more focused and efficient ( user friendly ) thus more mainstream ( multi-generational )
- the collusion on costs both for transmission and instrument will become cleaar and maeket antidotes will develop
- the naturel copycat evolution will start with foreign countries as imitations become prevalent
- the government will seek and find taxable inroads to e-commerce, they have no choice.
- Warren Buffett will become drawn into cyber space, moving into Gates territory , despite prior hands off agreements
- Blackouts will occur, by nature ( sun ), manmade, and accidental as the increase in usage increases exponetially. The structure will be overwhelmed.
- Less actual commerce/ consumption will occur as the population age group diversity kicks in; with the older more monied generation spending less and the newer generations simply have less to spend. Ironic in that having access does not give you the money to use it.
- without " retrieving "our industry AND starting new ones ( ie. protectionism ) the division of the monied and the lower classes will create economic, political and social chaos effectively bringing an end to life as we, in the United S
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Internet Censorship. It has already begun in some countries. (internet 2)
It will start out lightly filtered, and get more and more strict. It will be harder and harder to get "real" news. Americans and the rest of the world will continue of being complacent - practically incapable of thinking for themselves are to think about issues critically. Those who do know truth will be become more afraid to speak out, also as it is becoming unfashionable to go against the flow.
Atheism will grow modestly and atheists will become more aggressive. Possibly even extreme actions. Maybe a church or two being burned down.
Randomly got on new service dedicated.to, cool thing, it is possible to do great congratulatory pages, there's even a page of simpsons http://dedicated.to/simpsons, make attempt)
Coupon/discount culture begins to really suck balls for online retailers
37.Youtube servers will overload and crash
Here's another great list for top 10 tech predictions http://techguylabs.org/2009/12/26/10-predictions-for-2010/
Check it out.
real time social media could still be the buzz at the end of 2010.
Google and Microsoft will try to buy Twitter or Microsoft will launch the Bingger messaging (Twitter clon).
Just posted this on my gametrailer's blog.
1-GPS companies will struggle to keep up due to Google's announcement to map the world/Smartphones will replace GPS devices.
2-Tablets won't catch on early because of the already available alternatives like notebooks with revolving screens.
3-Microsoft will make a huge announcement about Project Natal, making Logitech and other companies who make webcams to play catch-up on Depth-Sensing Technology.
4-Television providers will suffer small hits due to an increase in WebTv viewing via Hulu and Apple's new monthly service. Thus bringing other companies to take some of Hulu's marketspace.
5-Games on Demand Will take a huge leap forward with the release of OnLive.
6-Zynga will be knocked of it's high horse for a little while as new Social Gaming companies rise.
7-Myspace falls to a point of no return and will either shutdown or restructure.(Agreeing with Sarah Perez)
8-Twitter will find a way to monetize it's traffic. Be it ads or subscription service.(Agreeing with Sarah Perez)
9-Magazines and Newspapers will adapt an online service early on by making apps and services to download their product onto portable devices.
10-The Blog will loose ground slowly because of companies (espically news and sports stations) defecting to Facebook groups and Twitter. This will also cause domain and blogging sites like Godady, Squarespace, and Wordpress to loose a little traction.
11-The WWW at the beginning of url's will not be used anymore outside of HTML coding.
12-Dial Up companies like Netzero will shut down or upgrade.
13-Url shorteners will peter out because companies like Microsoft, Yahoo, AOL, and Apple will exaggerate the market with even more of them. (They all do the same thing...why do we need 50 of them?)
14-EVERYONE will have someway, either be a computer,phone, or WIFI Watch, to connect to the Internet.
Unlikly Predictions
1-There will be a world wide DDOS attack sometime next year that could cripple Social Sites heavily.
2-A popular TV Service provider will close.
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I will finally make a decision on replacing Office97 on the 1 desktop, 2 laptops and now 1 netbook used in my home.
Sports
1- College football will be pressured into creating a playoff system after TCU routes Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. However, it will be rigged in such a way that only schools from major conferences have a real shot at getting in, eliminating the whole purpose of it.
2- Host nation South Africa reaches the World Cup semifinal, along with Brazil, Spain, and the United States. However, they lose to both Spain and Brazil to finish fourth. The Yanks shock the world by beating Brazil and Spain to win their first ever World Cup, providing newfound hope across the land.
3- In golf, Tiger Woods returns just in time for the PGA Championship in August, which he finishes third in, setting the stage for a strong 2011. (By now everyone has forgotten about the whole cheating thing.)
4- Lincecum wins his third straight NL Cy Young and enjoys playing postseason ball for the first time. The Giants reach the NLCS but are beat 4 games to 1 by the St. Louis Cardinals, who go on to win the World Series.
5- The 2010 Olympics feature lesser know figures winning more medals while well known athletes like Shaun White and Bode Miller struggle. Canada and Russia both beat out the United States for most medals.
Politics
1- The U.S. Economy makes a full recovery from the recession. On the down side, gas prices rise back up to almost $4 a gallon on the west coast.
2- President Obama and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il reach a nuclear pact which is broken in December by North Korea. Obama warns of "stark consequences" as he prepares for a nuclear war against North Korea.
3- In November, the Democrats lose the Senate and barely retain the House in perhaps the GOP's most satisfying recent victory. The newly elected conservative leaders promise to cut spending and taxes while blocking the presidents so called "socialist agenda."
4- The Iraqi police prove that they are capable of keeping the country safe after the Americans officially end their combat mission. All over Iraq, American flags are being waved with the words "Thank You" inscribed in Arabic to show their gratitude towards the American troops for liberating their country.
5- A group of American and British troops find Bin Laden in hiding in a cave near Pakistan. He is arrested and taken back to the United States, where he is held prisoner.
2010 is the year of Football.
I'm sure topics about football, mainly World Cup 2010 South Africa would be headline from months to months
I agree with Sean Ammirati.
Thanks
1.Australia wins a lot of medal for Winter Olympics
2.Brazil wins world cup
My (Khanderao) top 10 prediction list:
http://texploration.wordpress.com/2010/01/06/my-prediction-a
bout-emerging-technologies-in-2010/
Marshall Kirkpatrick's prediction:
1. Google Wave will win some respect back as people discover valuable uses for it and get used to the user experience.
I've been reading about GWave and see it has a ton of possibilities for personal and business use. I'm looking forward to learning more this year on how to harness all it's features.
Comment by Ramon B Nuez Jr
I think that Skype and Ford SYNC will join services so we can make wireless phone calls from our Ford SYNC enabled cars.
This idea would be great as I'm leaning toward a fun Ford Flex for my next vehicle.
Great post - predictions should come with disclaimers.
Here is my prediction where what NFP organisations to OWN in 2010.
http://bit.ly/63kovs
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