Analysts Predict 1 Billion+ Mobile Web Users by 2010
According to recent predictions from analyst firm IDC, mobile web usage is set to explode over the course of next year due to market forces like the tripling of iPhone applications, the quintupling of Android applications and the introduction of Apple's long-rumored tablet computer. This forecast was among the firm's many year-end predictions released in a report that offered a broad overview of what's to come in 2010 in the IT industry, cloud computing, the mobile web and the overall technology marketplace.
Mobile Web Continues Growth
One the more notable predictions in the near 20-page report is in regard to the growth of the mobile industry. Under the headline "Mobile Devices on a Path to Eclipse PCs", the analyst firm claims that in 2010, mobile devices will increasingly become a strategic platform for both commercial and enterprise developers. However, the report backs away from the implications made in that eye-catching title by clarifying that the firm is not (yet) predicting the "death of the PC," rather that mobile devices will no longer be seen as "subservient to PCs." Instead, says IDC, mobile devices will be viewed as primary client platforms.
While IDC may not predicting the death of the PC, it does believe that in 2010 mobile devices will eclipse PCs in several areas - or at least come very close. For example, the firm claims we'll see more than a billion mobile devices connected to the web by year-end. That's almost as many mobile devices as internet-connected PCs, the latter which will total 1.3 billion. Also, the growth rate of mobile devices is 2.5 times that of PCs.
For the most part, the growth will be spurred by the proliferation of smartphones, such as Apple's iPhone, RIM's Blackberry as well as the lines running Nokia's Symbian operating system (OS), Windows Mobile and Google's Android OS. In 2010, 200 million more smartphones will ship, representing 16% of the market. By 2013, that figure will rise to 20% or more.
In addition to the sheer number of phones produced in the coming year, application development will continue to see explosive growth, too. IDC believes Apple's iPhone will have 300,000 applications available by year-end (up from the 100,000 they have now) while Android will offer 50,000-75,000 (up from 10,000 now). IDC also believes that Google's strategy with Android - that is, an open OS that can run on different hardware - will help make it a strong iPhone competitor.
Apple "iPad" Will Launch
Of course, the one prediction which everyone wants to know about is the Apple tablet. IDC dubs the device the "iPad" and says it will be more like an oversized (8-10 inch) iPod Touch than a downsized Mac computer. The device will allow for web surfing, videophone applications, gaming, reading books, magazines, and newspapers, and watching videos. Last year, IDC said the iPad would not arrive in 2009 - and since it's now December, it appears to have been right. Now the firm claims 2010 is finally the year for its launch. It also notes that it would not be surprising to see Microsoft launch its own tablet device next year, too.
In addition to the introduction of the so-called iPad, IDC says the netbook market will continue to grow as major manufacturers expand their lineup to include different pricing levels for the ultraportable machines. This "good, better, best" lineup will allow netbooks to move away from being considered value-oriented systems (cheap with low performance) to being decent alternatives to traditional notebook PCs.
Do You Agree?
The IDC report involves predications of what's to come, but it was created after studying this year's data in detail and extrapolating on that to peer into the future. We think their findings sound credible - even the one about the mythical "iPad," although that may just be wishful thinking on our part.
Do you agree with these predictions, too? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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I agree with this 100%.
What I am focusing with my team about is how will this impact our jobs. How will the user experience of tablet/netbook usage influence how we design our Web sites.
Will we have to visualize the web more how the NY Time is with the Skimmer? What will be the trends that this hardware change will effect?
Its an important question and I recommend everyone begin to think about it.
I agree that we are nearing the tipping point where most web usage will occur on mobile devices. Most companies are moving way too slowly to develop mobile versions of their sites. It amazes me that even businesses that focus on travel and have a very mobile audience in many cases do not have mobile sites. It may have been cool to see the desktop version of the New York Times site on an iPhone back in 2007, but most people would consider that a heinous experience today.
My one question on the "iPad" - what screen technology will it incorporate? I am not interested in it for real reading unless it uses a technology that is easy on the eyes. Current, back-lit LCDs don't cut it. What about Qualcomm's Mirasol display?
I agree, I like the mobile devices,i surfing in my blackberry.
Many companies and designers is offer good services in mobiles devices.
In the future all the websites has versions for mobiles device.
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Nothing strange. We are all technical addicted . We simply can't live without a mobile. Maybe 1 Billion is a low number?
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Wow, 1 Billion sure does sound a lot but it's only a matter of time based on the amount of iPhones sold this year. It really makes sense to begin optimizing webpages to perform well on mobile devices now. Those who do will have a distinct advantage until others catch up.
I totally see it continuing it to go up. Just observing friends, it seems that using the phone to access online data is almost an addition.
I don't see how this doesn't happen. The future is mobile, the future is connected. With the open Android platform I also think we will see some interesting special purpose devices as well.
That's unbelievable, 10 billion.
This is profound!
This good news for Chrome OS and bad news for Windows.
Quick - lets build iphone apps and UIs!
Completely agree. We aren't sure why many companies still don't understand that they should be prepared to address this new platform with a site that is optimized for a mobile experience? A complex website built for a 10 - 15 inch screen will frustrate mobile users. Mobile devices are further distribution of web, and what follows will connected 'things' (autos, refrigerators and yes - bathrooms!)
Great article Sarah and a real wake-up call for a lot of designers and developers.
It is odd that we, as a community, have left mobile development for so long - it really took the takeoff of the iPhone to push mobile web development to the forefront of people's thinking.
I think I just saw my next career move :)
Paul
-1, I still haven't got a mobile phone, and don't need one. I'll leave the 24/7 availability to others.
If one wants to contact me, trow me a mail or IM me. Don't need no friggin' mobil phone and be available at all times at any place anywhere they frigging incontinently choose to phone or sms me.
As a blogger using Wordpress, I feel compelled to learn more about the .mobi style of publishing. It would help if I used a Blackberry or iPhone, I need to get with it! (Does that sound like a New Years Resolution???)
Cloud-computing etc All good for location-aware, platform independant apps....... so folk will need an enabled "engine" into which to glue all of the aforementioned right???
Check out
http://sites.google.com/site/en1gmaengine/
While not quite 2010, Novarra just did this study in mid-November on mobile internet users' behavior. They were able to conclude some very interesting findings relating to mobile internet user and micro-blogging.
"The findings from Novarra’s global deployments show that page views of bit.ly and tinyurl.com, shortened URL services regularly used in tweets, have grown by 1068% to date in 2009."
http://www.novarra.com/news/press-releases/micro-blogging-emerges-as-driver-of-mobile-internet-usage/
Interpret the data as you like, but I believe that it helps prove that mobile internet is continuing to grow.
I work in a community college in Canada where Internet access via mobiles is still pretty darn expensive. I'm not seeing many students using iPhones or Blackberries, I don't think they can afford them. I don't see 2010 being the breakthrough year for mobiles in our college.
I totally agree with the statement. I don't think it's a prediction. It is a fact instead. Only looking towards the market of China and India, one can religiously believe that this figure would be achieved by 2010 probably.
This is exactly what I've been blogging about recently, mainly the mobile phone social networks. There's a new one I've been watching for several weeks (launched a couple weeks ago) called Friendio - funny address, http://friend.io - and you can see it's targeting mobile only, not the PC, even with new technology like GPS phone locator to show where your friends are. I think this one will pop this Spring.
Posted by: Doug Blogger
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January 25, 2010 9:57 AM
I also read that Apple's App Store will reach 7 billion in revenue for 2010 and 29 billion in revenue for 2013. Truly amazing to see the growth of mobile devices.
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This is great news for what we @ www.NewAppIdea.com call "App Idea People." If you have a creative new app idea but no programming skills, post your idea for free and meet and hire qualifed app developers to turn your idea into a reality.
The NewAppIdea.com Team
New App Idea | App Idea Development
in one word: unbelievable!
It is a monument to the increasingly unified global community in which we live and reminds us that the world truly is becoming more flat. The second billion will be online before we know it, and the third billion will arrive even faster than that, until we have a truly global network of interconnected people and ideas that transcend borders and cultural boundaries.
The mobile users have distinctly different browsing habits than regular web users, but isn't that fairly obvious? In a mobile context people are just snacking on info, or posting a quick update. You typically don't do a lot of research on your mobile device
Analysts at IDC have made some predictions about the growth of the mobile Internet, based on usage data currently available. Not surprisingly, mobile Web browsing is big!
Mobile devices are predicted to “Eclipse the PC” next year. While the report does not actually predict the death of the Personal Computer, it does say that the mobile Web will grow, to the extent that it no longer remains subservient or secondary to the PC. Mobiles will become the primary source of Web browsing for many.
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10 billion.
Amazing !!!
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Wow, 1 Billion sure does sound a lot but it's only a matter of time based on the amount of iPhones sold this year. It really makes sense to begin optimizing webpages to perform well on mobile devices now. Those who do will have a distinct advantage until others catch up.
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Finally it's breaking loss, hopefully the average speed will go up so streaming and video calling will be 100% perfect.
Das inderdaad ni zo gemakkelijk voor die autoaccessoires te kopen en autoverzekering af te sluiten, online dan nog wel..