Last week we published a list of web technology predictions for 2007, along with a poll asking which trend you think will be *the* biggest of 2007. Social networks dominated the Web scene in 2006, so what will be the equivalent in 2007?
We've had 1,235 votes so far (but we'll leave the poll open until 31 December). Here, in order of popularity, are the results at this stage:
1. Online Video / Internet TV 27% (337 votes)
2. Continued rise of browser-based apps (Ajax, Google, etc) 22% (275 votes)
3. Mobile Web 15% (185 votes)
4. RSS and structured data 12% (153 votes)
5. Rich Internet Apps (Apollo, WPF, etc) 9% (116 votes)
6. Web Office / Enterprise web apps 6% (77 votes)
7. Semantic Web 6% (75 votes)
8. Other (please comment) 1% (17 votes)
Given the impact YouTube had on 2006, it is not that surprising that Online Video / Internet TV is considered most likely to be the biggest Web trend of 2007. Google of course has prime position in this space now, after snapping up YouTube near the end of 2006. Perhaps of most interest is what the big media, TV and movie companies do next year - so far it's been a series of tentative deals between YouTube and big media, but 2007 may be the year that big media build (or buy) their own online video solutions. Watch this space...
I was a little surprised that browser-based apps got 22% of the vote, compared to just 9% for RIA. This may reflect the fact that Read/WriteWeb has historically been a proponent of browser-based apps. But during 2006 we started to cover the RIA terrain more - and you can expect that coverage to continue in 2007. Maybe it's not a black and white thing, but both browser-based and RIA apps will continue to evolve at the speed of light next year. Indeed they will probably begin to hybridize, as the world of multiple Internet-connected devices continues apace.
Mobile Web has been predicted for many years - and R/WW readers don't seem overly optimistic about 2007 being the year. 2008 anyone?
Some good support for RSS and structured data doing well in '07, while Web Office and Semantic Web drew some votes. I expected more enthusiasm for Semantic Web, but perhaps it's still too amorphous a concept for most people at this point.
As for my pick for biggest Web trend in 2007, I agree with the majority that next year will be remembered mostly for Online Video. I'm expecting fireworks from big Internet companies (Google, Microsoft, Yahoo), big media (News Corp, the US tv networks, Hollywood, etc), as well as small brave startups like Brightcove and Gotuit.
For a slightly left field trend, in 2007 I'm hoping for improvements in the technology behind browser-based apps. Ajax is still too unreliable and prone to downtime or slow browsing - and I'm not just saying that because I'm stuck on dial-up during the holiday period (although it has rendered Gmail non-functional for me!). I just think that Ajax needs a '2.0' of its own, to make it more competitive with the impressive range of RIA technologies we're seeing now (Adobe's Apollo, Microsoft's WPF, OpenLaszlo). Small companies like Morfik are working on enhanced browser-based functionality, so R/WW will begin to investigate that more in the new year - suggestions on other companies doing things to improve Ajax, are most welcome in the comments.
Happy New Year everyone - R/WW has been lightly posting this week, but we'll be back into it after the new year celebrations.
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Comments
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I agree about the online video, it will have a lot to say in 2007.
Posted by: Alex | December 29, 2006 1:48 AMHappy new year!
I'd say, RSS and structured data and Semantic Web should be in one category, then it would get the right % :)
Happy New Year!!!
Alex
Posted by: Alex Iskold | December 29, 2006 5:17 AMOnline Video/Internet TV will be huge, I am not sure about 2007, but it will be huge. The positives are:
1. Google's recent purchase of Youtube
2. The imminent launch of the DotTel extension
3. The recently announced partnership bewteen Verizon and Richard Rosenblatt to breathe life into the DotTV brand
4. Brightcove; and
5. Broadband
Posted by: Adrian Keys | December 29, 2006 7:32 AMhttp://jollyjo.org
Watch for Venice, it will be a big thing, maybe even bigger than YouTube, because it's not just online video, it's online TV!
Posted by: Emre Sokullu | December 29, 2006 8:58 AMAlso, Apollo deserves to be in second or third place for me. As for Semantic Web, it's farther from today, maybe for 2008 I think.
Posted by: Emre Sokullu | December 29, 2006 9:01 AMSorry for triple post but also check out: http://avc.blogs.com/a_vc/2006/12/2007_user_gener.html , this Fred Wilson's idea sounds very promising to me.
Posted by: Emre Sokullu | December 29, 2006 9:08 AMEmre, I clicked on that link and I get an error. It was late when I noticed your comma after html. I know it's minor but it won't take a reader there. Thanks. :)
Happy New Year R/WW Team!!!
Posted by: ipanema | December 29, 2006 9:34 AMThanks ipanema, this is a bug we should report to SixApart :) the correct address is: http://avc.blogs.com/a_vc/2006/12/2007_user_gener.html and the topic is User Generated Devices
Posted by: Emre Sokullu | December 29, 2006 10:02 AMI fixed up that first link Emre. Thanks for pointing out Venice, the Internet TV project that the Skype founders are working on. One to watch, for sure.
Anyone got any suggestions for 'Ajax 2.0' technologies to keep an eye out for, other than Morfik?
Posted by: Richard MacManus | December 29, 2006 12:23 PMp2p....and i'm not telling
Posted by: lemon obrien | December 29, 2006 5:35 PMRichard,
Posted by: Stoicho Monev | December 29, 2006 8:07 PMWho needs other Ajax technologies, when we have Morfik's WebOS Apps Builder? :)
Yeah, these look about right to me, especially with the online video craze. It seems to have exploded already, and 2007 will only make it bigger.
Posted by: Jessi | December 30, 2006 10:14 AMWIDGETS
;))
Posted by: BillyWarhol | December 30, 2006 9:43 PMI definetly hope that online video will take some major steps forward and that the quality and quantity of the content will greatly expand, as i've been using the technology for quite some time.
Posted by: David Mackey | December 31, 2006 9:33 PMOdd that AJAX gets listed as an application when it's really just a method of submitting / receiving data or content without rendering the page again. Google as an app, however, makes more sense as Google's tool offerings (video, books, maps, blogsearch, etc) are bonified web-based applications that will continue to make Google much more than a search engine company.
Posted by: Mark Shields | January 1, 2007 9:10 AMBest broadband Movie Player out there: REELTIME.COM
Uses GridNetworks p2p player for STREEMING, LIVE, DVD quality FULL-SCREEN Video ( No waiting, it is ON DEMAND and CHEAP to subscribe )
A major startup player, adding Major content in 2007 ..... or a buyout candidate for 2007
Plus you can buy shares in it (RLTR) !!!!
Posted by: Phil | January 2, 2007 8:09 AMMost of the web trend predictions above could be argued to be an extrapolation of current speed and course as we come out of '06. Here are my projections for behavior changes that we'll start to notice more in '07. If you're interested, details and rationales after the link
1. Ecommerce 2.0 arrives
2. Widgets find a business model
3. Lead generation breaks into new categories
4. Social Networking finally becomes a feature
5. News of TV’s death are greatly exaggerated
6. Software as a Service gets customer facing
Posted by: jeremy liew | January 2, 2007 1:50 PM"I was a little surprised that browser-based apps got 22% of the vote, compared to just 9% for RIA."
I'm not sure why you make a distinction between these. I normally find the label RIA being used to cover browser-based apps as well as browser-desktop apps.
Posted by: Shawn | January 2, 2007 4:05 PM