Bits of Destruction Hit the Book Publishing Business: Part 2
In part 1 of this series, we looked at the three big waves crashing down on the traditional book publishing business: Google Search, the Kindle and e-books, and print on demand. In this second part, we'll try to wipe the muck from our crystal ball and see how this could play out in the future, specifically for the major players of book publishing: readers, authors, printers, publishers, retailers, and e-book device vendors.
What Will Readers Get?
Readers have the money that makes all of this happen, so they will, eventually, get what they want, which is:
- Broad selection of titles,
- Choice of format and device,
- Fast delivery,
- Low prices,
- Freemium model.
In other words, readers will be able to order any book in the universe and have it sent to them in print wherever they want or sent digitally to whatever device they have. Readers have grown accustomed to getting their online content for free, so they will expect to get at least a degraded experience via the regular browser (the "free" in freemium).
This will take a while to play out. We live in a world today of bilateral negotiations, so different titles are available for different devices and in different bookstores. But play out it will. This is the logic of digitization. Until we reach that stage, plenty of entrepreneurial opportunities will exist to meet those reader demands.
Readers will pay more for print. They will understand that it costs more. Some readers will resist e-books as long as they live. Others will be selective, choosing print for certain titles and situations and digital for others.
Will Books Be Free?
Here is my free review of my free copy of "Free."
Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail, recently came out with the book "Free: The Future of a Radical Price." So the question of whether books will be free in the future is a natural one to ask. The short answer is, No. If books became free, authors would stop writing, printers would stop printing, and electronics factories would stop churning out e-book readers. In other words, there would be nothing to read... except:
- Free copies given to reviewers to generate free reviews. I got a free copy of "Free" when I attended Wired's "Disruptive by Design" conference. But the practice of giving away free copies to reviewers has been happening since publishing began.
- Free excerpts and abstracts online. Using free content to entice you to a paid version will continue. Freemium models will be the norm. People with more time than money will take the free version online through their browser, even if the paid print version or e-book is a much better experience. This is nothing new, either: people with more time than money already get free books through their local library. Enabling people with more time than money to read for free is a good thing.
- Promotional publishing. Traditional brochures have lost all credibility and value in this online world. And everyone has a blog; blogs are no longer differentiators. So, published books are the new blogs. Consultants can charge more if they have a book published. To be credible, the book would need a published price (preferably a high one), but all potential clients would get one for free. This is just an extension of blogging as an attention-getting tool.
- Passion publishing. This has been called "vanity publishing" in the industry. This is a pejorative term that can be translated as, "This is not real publishing because no one is paying for it." If the author's passion relates to a cause, funding may come from a non-profit foundation. But volume will accumulate from simple books such as your family memoir or a cookbook inspired by your vacation in Tuscany. Again, this is not much different from spending time on a blog. Free books may come with advertising, like blogs.
How much does Chris Anderson's "Free" book cost on Amazon? List price: $26.99, discounted to $16.19. Not free.
Next: Authors, Printers...
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That's a great dissection of the book publishing space. It would be nice if authors could get more (i.e. ~30%) as you suggested, given that the existing intermediary costs plummet with increased digital distribution & publication. The traditional publisher's model is definitely in danger, because their added-value is diminishing with time. Today, there still is a 3-4 months lag between end of manuscript and appearance in a bookstore, and that model is getting pretty old.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a new segment of books & authors emerge that bypasses traditional publishers completely. For this segment, the primary market will be digital/online, the secondary market Amazon-as a channel, and thirdly bookstores. This will in essence flip the current pyramid on its head.
Correction: ISBNs are now 13 digits (and have been for a few years).
I am wonderring if I can share your article in the bookmarks of society,Then more friends can talk about this problem
An interesting exercise in speculation and daydreaming by someone whose knowledge of the publishing industry is clearly limited.
Wow. You are kind of arrogant about the whole thing and it's clear you've never worked in traditional book publishing (though I'll bet you've had a book proposal turned down by a publisher or two). I'm not saying you don't have some good points, but you're making book publishers sound like music publishers, and they've never been that stupid or wicked. I could spend days picking apart this rambling, misinformed (and misinforming) article, but for now I'll just focus on the "Unbundling Publishers" section:
Advances. Newbies don't get them, and the rest don't need them.
Wrong. I don't know of a single major publisher that doesn't give even first-time authors some sort of advance. Enough to buy a yacht? No. But usually enough to live on for several months.
Editing. Do you have a social network that could give you constructive criticism?
Is that what you think "editing" is? No wonder this article has so many problems.
Cover design. Yes, a great one can make a book. But how much do graphic designers charge?
Anywhere from $1,000 to $3,000 for a good design. An in-house designer can cost a publisher 45,000-75,000 USD a year.
ISBN. Here is an interesting one...
Eh... Okay. But as mentioned above, they're 13 digits now.
Marketing. Some authors will say, "What marketing?" For mega-star authors, publishers have to spend a ton on marketing to recoup their advance...
Maybe. Depends on the publisher. They don't all do this. But you're leaving out two key components of Marketing (actually, they tend to be distinct departments, but whatever): Publicity and Sales. If a Publicist is doing his or her job, they're the ones that will get a decent author on the Today show. Or they'll set up a satellite radio tour for a first-time author. Or they'll even make a blog tour happen. And they give nervous authors media training (do you think all good writers are comfortable with social--or any other--media?). It's hard work, and it sells a ton of books. And the Sales Department... Well, you've heard of Barnes and Noble, right? The sales people book publishers keep on staff (at great expense) get your book into those stores--B&N still sells a lot of books. Sometimes they even convince B&N to set up special displays (those things at the front of the store you see even if your eyes are closed). And that's just Barnes and Noble... There are thousands of bookstores large and small across the world. The Sales Department at traditional publishers make sure your books end up in them all so people can find them. And though that world may be shrinking, these places will be selling books for a long time to come. Oh, and every publisher keeps someone on their sales staff who handles Amazon. Sure, Amazon will sell any book with an ISBN, but they won't necessarily give it good placement on their site. Big, big gains from those efforts.
Brand. ...Does a brand-name publisher increase sales three times?
Often they can do better. If you believe in your book, trust it to someone who knows how to get it into as many hands as possible. If you don't, self-publish and sell copies to your friends and family.
Okay, I can't go on.
To all who pointed out that ISBN changed from 10 digits to 13 digits, thanks. That has been corrected. That clearly shows I have not worked in the book publishing business. This is an outsider's perspective and when an industry is going through major change, some people find an outsider perspective to be useful. I don't believe that Jeff Bezos ever worked in book publishing or Steve Jobs worked for a record label. Not that I am trying for that kind of comparison (if I come across as arrogant that is not my intention). I am simply pointing out that radical change usually comes from outside the industry.
I am sorry if this annoys people who work in book publishing. No, I have never had any manuscripts rejected, so I am not embittered. I am somebody who happens to like both technology and books. I mean I REALLY like books, the printed kind. And we don't get books without publishers and many publishers provide phenomenal value and work really hard to do that. So I believe that publishers will continue to thrive. But I am also convinced that they will change, quite radically, and that new ones will emerge to replace the ones who do not change.
In my next phase of investigation I aim to look at this from the point of view of the author, to see how they look at this. Their view, ultimately, is what matters.
Two things: one of the POD's you mentioned, Booksurge, is also owned by Amazon, and has been since April of 2006, so they have a double advantage there. And I do give many copies of my book away as gifts and promotions, in pdf ebook format. That costs me nothing, and they usually go to places where my book cannot be bought anyway, such as Pakistan, Nepal, Kuwait, etc., and it really helps the word of mouth :)
Thanks,
Irving
Chris Anderson's Free is also available online for free at Scribd. link
This article is interesting and full of nice conjectures. However, it leaves aside the issue of academic publishing. Academics NEED publishers to give credence to their work so academics can get promoted. Will this need for publishers have an effect on the publishing, maybe stabilizing the existence of publishers? Or will academics need to find alternative ways to show their credentials?
Your 'bookstore owners nightmare' would be ironic except most of the independent bookstores are gone, and that is a true shame. And believe me the 'owners' of today's 'bookstores' are mega corporations that just barely understands what really happens in their store. Independents were the first to allow patrons to sit, read, sip, and spend more time then just hand over your credit card at the counter. The "free" model being used now most often is a "special report" of 20 to 30 pages, useful information, but not complete, and the upsell is the "Entire book." This is of course not true with fiction, although there are a few authors who've published the first X number of chapters to allow readers to get a 'taste' and then charged for the entire book. The "Special Report" tactic is used millions of time in the Internet Information Industry, not just for 'make money online' but for everything from acne cures and dog training to foreign exchange currency trading.
You gave a 'glimpse' of the future but I feel like you didn't go quite far enough...audio books, sunglasses with chapters appearing on the inside lenses, all science fiction I know and of course we all know that stuff is silly, like little "communicators" the size of a matchbook you can talk to people with. (Big Grin).
Good job, Bernard. I liked your article.
Thanks.
Thanks for a thought-provoking pair of articles.
I'm a science fiction author who's chosen to go the "indie publication" route (I love that term, btw). I have my own ISBNs and publish my own books as well as some deserving titles from friends.
In both POD and Kindle, Amazon definitely takes the lion's share. To carry POD books, Amazon pays 55% of cover price and the POD printer takes about 30-35%, leaving the author's share at about 10-15%. For Kindle, Amazon gives the author a 35% share.
I think there's still one piece missing from: a method for readers to become aware of books that would interest them. With nonfiction, one can imagine Google ads targeted to particular searches: i.e. if someone searching for investment advice will be offered books on the subject. But for fiction, it's harder to see a mechanism for connecting reader and book.
I was intrigued to learn that what I had conceived as science fiction - print on demand in the back office of the retailer/coffee shop - is totally feasible today. The POD device is sized like a vending machine. Customer orders, pays and a few minutes later voila a freshly minted book! Think what that does to supply chain costs in the business. This is Dell just in time for the book biz. Who is making this happen? Ingram - the biggest book wholesaler - with the wonderfully named Espresso Book Machine:
http://www.write-to-publish-for-profit.com/espresso-book-machine.html
In your next article regarding the author's POV, please, say something about how piracy will affect us. Unlike musicians, we can't go out on a tour or sell merchandising, nor will I ever charge for an autograph, if I become famous enough. :) What opportunities and difficulties do you see here?
Thank you for your perspective.
In response to Don Saker, who is looking for " a method for readers to become aware of books that would interest them" this is what jzbn, above, refers to as marketing (inclusive of publicity and sales) from the publisher. This is the value add that publishers offer. They get them into store, market them in store, as well as in target audience circles and get them reviewed. Additionally Brand Name publishers have more sway in doing all of these things. Maybe indie publishing isn't the way for you Don.
You make a lot of good points, though as jzbn alluded to I do think there's a complete lack of understanding of the role and value of editing outside of publishing. No doubt the crowd can replace some of that function in certain instances, such as for those engaged in self-publishing, but especially for bigger titles and academic/specialized titles, the role of the editor is still very important.
Also, your vision of POD in bookstores is becoming even more real than you think:
http://www.boston.com/business/technology/articles/2009/06/29/vermont_bookstore_thriving_on_experiment_with_self_publishing/
Ummm. Do you actually know how books are produced? Saying things like "Editing. Do you have a social network that could give you constructive criticism?" doesn't exactly help your credibility. So you don't have a clue what editors do -- what else were you just guessing about?
Some things you just don't seem to have bothered researching. It wouldn't have taken a whole lot of digging to find out that designers charge from $500 to $1,500 for a book cover, for example.
There's a lot of good stuff in here, but you cut some corners, and they really show.
Perhaps you needed a good editor!
I think you make some interesting observations about what bookstores will look like in the future. However, as others have pointed out, it screams "outsider's perspective" especially when talking about editing, its very clear you don't have any idea what an editor does for a manuscript.
Overall, I think you hit some nerves and key points that all publishers (commercial and academic)should pay attention to.
Interesting article - not as good as part one - but still interesting. Also interesting responses, especially from jzbn and other publishers. Jzbn is correct in some areas and just wrong in others.
First off - he's not very up to date if he thinks that all publishers offer first time authors some kind of advance - not true any more. Some do, some don't. Editing - jzbn is quite right that your comment is way off base. But then so is the book publishing industry's idea of editing. How does someone learn to be an editor? There is only one real answer - you do it. Sadly that means that any new editor is not really very good. It also unfortunately means that there is little quality control and the result is that there are LOTS of really bad editors - even at very senior levels - editors who don't actually know what they are doing. For example, if you
Marketing - hah! If publishers could market books well then more people would be reading. They can't and so people don't.
But jzbn was right everywhere else.
Editing? I review books, not many, for a book blogger and have read several by big name publishing houses that are full of spelling and grammar errors. Just say I had expected better quality out of a name brand publisher and I'm not impressed.
Owen, now I am going to switch sides a bit and defend publishers! You write:
"If publishers could market books well then more people would be reading. They can't and so people don't."
I think they try but it is real hard. Movies made us want different novels. Try reading a victorian novel - slooooow, right? Thomas Hardy can take 3 pages describing a desolate heath! Great, really great if you dedicate the time. But who has the time? So we got fast paced junk novels, because that is what we want. We know that slow food is better than junk food and slow novels better than junk novels - but what sells?
But movies, like 2 hour movies, that's so slow these days. Even 3 minute MTV is too long in the online world. We grab and skim content. How do you market books in that world?
It can be done - speaking as a total book lover - but it is not as easy as it used to be.
Some things you just don't seem to have bothered researching. It wouldn't have taken a whole lot of digging to find out that designers charge from $500 to $1,500 for a book cover, for example.
You've managed to not only denigrate the work of professional editors but also that of professional designers with this statement:
"3. Authors creating the finished product. Today, authors write and publishers look after the cover art and editing. If authors were to get 30% or more, they would have to take on these two other jobs. But in a world of desktop publishing tools and social networks to organize work and editing, this will not be hard."
I won't comment on behalf of editors but I have worked with enough of them to know how much goes into editing a book for style, tone, clarity and even content. Being an author vs. an editor are very different disciplines. The same is true for the visual aspects of a book. I have designed close to 200 books and covers over the last 15 years.
I realize that online and print-on-demand books will change the industry and the traditional editor/designer collaborative process. This process is shifting to a complete separation of content from design, which means templated, XML-based layouts, and medium- and audience-driven delivery of content. I see it coming, and I don't think it's a bad thing, and I am not overly worried about the need for professional design.
Someone will still have to create optimized layouts, just as is done for websites, whether they will be used as templates or are customized for high end delivery of equally high end content. The sky is the limit as to the layout options we may see in the future in electronic books. These options will only be used to their full potential by professionals specializing in user experience design. A more legible, more attractive, more intuitive design will always stand out and add value.
Even the most sophisticated desktop publishing tools do not make an author a designer. The greatest social network will not make an author an editor. It's not the tools, it's the education and experience that enable one to use the tools.
Beyond that, there is a cultural component to the traditional printed book interface which has a universal human appeal, and the online publisher who best approximates that appeal and user experience in the new book media will do better than others who are lacking that cultural aspect.
I suggest that the role of the book designer will be changing, but will be more important than ever with the increasing visual sophistication of audiences and the increasing options in visual delivery.
Besides, now that we designers can self-publish our own books, we don't need expensive authors or publishers anymore. We can write and design our own content, and from there it's only a small step to world domination.