Can We Kick Our Keyboard Addiction by 2013?
This morning, everyone is looking agog at the words of Google Europe boss John Herlihy, who's quoted in the Silicon Republic predicting the demise of the desktop computer.
"In three years time, desktops will be irrelevant. In Japan, most research is done today on smart phones, not PCs," Herlihy said. Is this proclamation taking it one step too far or will we be keyboard-less and fancy free by the time 2013 rolls around?
The Silicon Republic writes that Herlihy's comments echoed "comments by Google CEO Eric Schmidt at the recent GSM Association Mobile World Congress 2010 that everything the company will do going forward will be via a mobile lens, centering on the cloud, computing and connectivity."
If, in fact, Herlihy is predicting the dominance of smartphones, and not just mobile technology, we have a few numbers for you.
According to an October 2009 Forrester report on technology adoption in the U.S. information workforce, only 11% use smartphones, while 76% use desktops and 35% use laptops. And these numbers are looking at workers in the information industry, a sector we would expect to be on the razor's edge of mobile technology adoption. A January report on the mobile workforce indicates that just over 30% of companies report that at least one quarter of their employees work in the field for more than half of their time. According to the article in Enterprise Mobile Today reviewing this report, "in the next three years, more than half of employees will be using smartphones in the enterprise".
At a recent event with our technologically savvy peers, we took an informal poll of everyone's work stations. Only one out of nearly 10 of us said we used a desktop computer. But are we working from our smartphones? No. Laptops and netbooks rule.
We're thinking that if Google is predicting desktops to be irrelevant and including laptops and netbooks in this category, they might be undervaluing our keyboard addiction. When we look at the iPad, do we really see something we'll use to manage databases, code, write or otherwise really create information?
Smartphones are obviously gaining speed with every day but they are far too limited to completely replace their keyboarded friends in three years time. But, if included in this definition of "mobile" are the ever-shrinking laptops, netbooks and tablets (with their accompanying keyboard docks) then we'd have to say we're nearing this future daily. Look around your local college campus and you'll see the next generation of computer users, each with a smartphone in their pocket and a laptop or netbook in their backpack. Look in some of the younger offices and you won't even see a desktop anymore, but instead desks with laptop docking stations.
When we take into consideration, however, developing and third-world nations, where the only web is mobile web, the situation may be completely different. We think that we can be sure of one thing though - outside of very specific uses, the age of the 30-pound clunker humming away beneath your desk is indeed coming to an end.
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I'm really glad you made the point about coders needing keyboards. Amazing that a tech company could overlook that it would be nearly impossible to write code on a virtual keyboard...well, not impossible but it would take at least ten times as long.
Add to this group anyone who needs to write anything longer than two sentences. I'm convinced that most people making these predictions are doing so based on what their 13 year old daughter is doing.
It all boils down to muscle memory and productivity. I personally can't produce what I get paid to produce on a smart phone, and until I can, I won't invest a nickel in one of them. Netbooks are borderline at the moment - when I can get one with 4 GB of RAM, two cores and a full-strength Linux desktop, I'll give up my laptop and workstation in favor of a netbook and a cloud server.
But there is still the issue of muscle memory. I've been typing for decades. Even voice recognition couldn't get me off of a keyboard for two reasons:
1. I can use a keyboard in a noisy environment. I need headphones to block out the noise, but I can create content.
2. I can edit as I go on a keyboard. With voice recognition, there's no way to jump around in a document, cut and paste, insert pictures, back up, make corrections, etc.
I agree with Ed. People are too invested in typing, and there isn't a better way to get things done.... yet.
My laptop(macbook pro) outperforms and has replaced my desktop completely.
My Laptop will be replaced by a smartphone only when:
1. A smart phone can outperform my laptop.
2. The phone can accept a wireless keyboard and mouse.
3. The phone can stream wireless video to a monitor/hdtv.
4. I can choose the OS.
It will happen, even then I will still be typing on it somehow.
No our keyboards are not going away anywhere. Not until, we see a generational leap in text-to-speech technology and even then, you don't expect me to code via speech. Its true that smartphones will keep getting more powerful, but they will create their own market. In the developing world, expensive smartphones haven't been a big success nor small netbooks [India]. Its the regular-sized cheap laptops which rule the market because it serves as your gaming and entertainment hub too.
Our data and our digital identity will become mobile, but we will still prefer a large screen while doing our coding and blog posts always.
I doubt it, I want to see anyone code those iPhone/Android apps on their mobile phones. Also when you create internal apps that are only visible inside the LAN how would you test this? Also if the desktop is dead then why is Google investing time and money in Chrome OS?
Until I can get a notebook with a high speed multi-core processor coupled to multiple graphic processors using a high capacity solid state drive I'll stick with a desktop. Such generalizations about the "death of the desktop" are almost as quaint as the 1960's era IBM research fellow who predicted the world would only need a handful of computers. Developing graphically intensive games and applications on a notebook is ludicrous and, for the next few years, cost prohibitive.
Well, you can enter information not only with keyboards. For example, http://thisislike.com is a system, which allows users to share and enter information with minimum clicks (using the flash interface).
Posted by: dimas.thisislike.me
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March 4, 2010 11:26 AM
People keep predicting this and it keeps not coming true. Other commenters have noted particular reasons why, but this boils down to the fact that there are some things we do that cannot be done without a kyeboard, not even if voice rcognition was 100%. Coding is one, spreadsheet work is another. So is presentation creation.
What we will see is an accelerating move to mobile computing via laptops and netbooks as well as a proliferation of devices that aren't smartphones or laptops. The iPad is one such, but thing about a graphic artist using MS's Surface technology.
"But what about his Japan example!!??" Well, note the quote - 'most research is done..." NOT 'most work.' Sure, you can surf the web and research well on smartphones and iPad like devices... but there's more to work than that. Frankly, leaving this comment was easier via typing. I could have spoken it, but I'd need some way to 1) indicate I wanted to leave a comment 2) put the focus on the comment box, 3) Log in or leave my name/email and 4) done all of t hat in an office environment. Do we really want everyone to be dictating their work out loud in an open office space?
I agree with Rohit that keyboards aren't going anywhere anytime soon, but I don't see speech-to-text technology ever becoming a viable alternative, generational leap or not. I think it will take something from the 'other, not yet invented' category to dislodge QWERTY input.
Speech-to-text technology is impressive for what it is and has come a long way, but it's a niche. I use it when holed up in my home office and when I have privacy, but I can't imagine using it in a public setting. Imagine the cacophony at a coffee shop or open office environment. How would one take notes in a meeting without disrupting the meeting? How can you speak on the phone while also 'typing', how can you write something with any privacy, etc.
It's a given, IMHO, that any input needs to be silent (or nearly so) and speech-to-text clearly doesn't meet that.
It'll take something more
The premise that smartphones will rival laptops and desktops is false. Google is clearly wanting people to buy more of their phones.
The line that stood out to me was: "And these numbers are looking at workers in the information industry, a sector we would expect to be on the razor's edge of mobile technology adoption."
That's the problem: we look at our fellow geeks and make the wrong assumption that everyone else is following our lead.
I'm not eager for a smartphone for many of the same reasons given by others: I type everything and I want a big machine with a big screen without compromise.
But, on your next commute look how many people (not just 13-year-olds) are glued to their phones. They type with their thumbs and they don't care about all our desktop apps they can't run, because they don't use them anyway.
Then look outside North America at all the developing nations where a smartphone is the infrastructure. The desktop PC has already been eclipsed.
I read the comment as "MS Windows" will be irrelevant in three years. We can argue about the timing, but does anyone think Windows will be relevant in, say, 10 years? 5 years? The speed of innovation in handhelds combined with the same in cloud computing is making Windows less relevant by the hour.
Posted by: Pat Burns
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March 4, 2010 9:37 PM
"In three years time, desktops will be irrelevant. In Japan, most research is done today on smart phones, not PCs,"
is a non sequitur
Not just because it is a fallacy to imply that the latter means that the first is true, but because PCs have never been big in Japan. The historical dominance of the console and other electronics over the PC in Japan has been common knowledge for at least ten years.