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Outlook for Search in China

Written by Guest Author / April 4, 2007 1:32 AM / 12 Comments

Written by Aydin Senkut, an ex-Google senior manager who is currently an angel investor for his company Felicis Ventures. During Aydin's 6 years with Google, he managed their international expansion - including launching Google's first 10 international sites.

Today China boasts over 105 million Internet users, not to mention 350M mobile users (growing by 57 million every year). By 2010, Chinese Internet users will outnumber US Internet users by 25%. Currently, 87% of the Chinese Internet audience uses search. And given Internet search’s dominance of monetization and audience rankings globally, the competition for the top spot in the Chinese search market is pretty intense.

Baidu, Google, Yahoo, Sohu and Sina are battling each other to be the leading provider of search in China. Currently the two largest search players, Baidu and Google, account for almost 90% of the searches (source: CNNIC Search Survey, 2006), per the latest local search market share depicted in the pie chart below.


Chinese Search Market

Though it doesn’t show up in the main search rankings, Tencent - the leading Chinese Instant Messaging (IM) platform with over 220M active users - has been making significant in-roads into this market by licensing Google’s search in 2005.

More than 3 out of every 4 Internet searchers in China use multiple search engines (source: CNNIC Search Survey, 2006). Therein lies one of the more interesting dynamics of this market: Baidu and Google clearly lead the field in all aspects of search, through the variety of searches they offer and the quality of their results. Sohu features more prominently in MP3 and video search, compared to its lagging ranking in web search. Yahoo, on the other hand, has been struggling with its local partnering strategy - as it failed to take advantage of large acquisitions locally, including 3721 and the much publicized Ali Baba. Indeed Yahoo's brand seems weaker in China compared to Google’s and other local players - as a result of its lack of focus (and differentiation).


Search Type

Google progressing in China

Even though Google is trailing Baidu in market share, it has made some significant progress in the last 2 years in China. It started to comply with local laws in China by filtering its results (and it‚Äôs the only one that informs users when it does so). Google also introduced its first music search - though its results point to music sites and not to downloadable music links, like its competitors. 

Google recently managed to outflank Baidu in terms of perceived quality. Recent research by Keynote Systems shows that among 1200 Internet users in China, Google outperformed all other competitors in 11 out of 13 factors measured. Moreover, most participants that ranked Google highest were actually using another search engine as their primary site for search. Google’s excellent scores were not surprising, given that the 3 most important criteria for ranking search engines in users minds were: clean home page design, quality of web search results, and quality of image search results (all of which play strongly to Google’s hand). This trend speaks strongly for Google in terms of catching up to Baidu in the market share.

However, ‚Äúboth Google and Yahoo could still further improve their government relations in China‚Ä?, quipped Janelle Wu, who was formerly Senior VP at NetEase. 

Baidu, the market leader

Janelle Wu also mentioned that one of Baidu’s great strategic moves was hiring R&D experts from the US, while recruiting locally for sales talent.

Baidu is currently enjoying virtually double the market share in all types of search over Google. A 2006 Study by CNNIC cites other reasons for Baidu attracting a large user base, including Baidu’s well-liked Bulletin Boards and its responsiveness. Baidu also benefits from its wildly popular MP3 search, which takes users directly to downloadable music. This could be a major headache for Baidu in the future if China decides to tighten its enforcement of IP laws, with respect to illegal music.

Sohu, Sina and Yahoo all draw significant numbers of users to their search sites through their popular free email offerings, but that’s still not enough to help them break into the upper echelon of search - currently occupied by Baidu and Google.

In terms of brand awareness, Baidu once again stands out with 87% - while Google and Yahoo trail with 64% and 39% respectively (source: CNNIC Search Survey, 2006). 

Furthermore, more than 50% of Baidu’s users are under 23 years old. Since 80% of people under 24 years old use the Internet in China (source: the CASS China Internet Survey, 2006) compared to a much lower ratio for older age groups, Baidu’s momentum is bound to continue. Maybe it’s for this reason, and lack of further explosive growth opportunity at home, that Baidu decided to launch its first international search in Japan last week.

The future of the China search market

While Google’s perception has improved considerably among Internet users in China, its refusal to offer its Gmail and Blogger services locally (due to privacy concerns) will probably slow its efforts to boost its user base. However Google continues to invest in the Chinese Internet market, with a minority stake in P2P player Xunlei - which is aimed at the local online video market. This move might have other benefits for Google, as Xunlei doesn’t support Baidu downloads for instance.

Among all the players, the one to watch is Tencent. Given its dominance in IM and success in entering new markets such as casual games, mobile chat and virtual goods - it has the strengths to make a decent entry into the Chinese search market.

The Chinese search market is bound to hold a few surprises in the next year or two, as most Chinese Internet users claim that factors such as duplication of results, freshness and quality of the way results are ranked, could use further improvement.

Speaking of improvement, Google apparently needs to pay more attention to the quality of its image search, as it returns virtually no images for the Chinese name of former president Deng Xiaoping. Baidu, on the other hand, could be leveraging its new Japanese office to offer a better service to its users searching for adult terms like ‚Äúsex‚Ä?. Baidu apparently returns only 3 results for ‚Äúsex‚Ä? in its Chinese site, whereas its new Japanese site returns 107,000 images for the same search term.


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  1. Great review!
    We could do an outlook for search market in Russia and its neighboring countries. It is one a few local markets where Google is not the market leader. The search advertising market in Russia was up over 100% in 2006 from the previous year and should continue to increase at the same pace.

    Posted by: Yakov | April 4, 2007 4:58 AM



  2. Consider Baidu has already captured a large amount of under 24-year-old's. In 5-10 years from now, the buying power of this Baidu population is going to be massive, as they are growing from students to full-time office workers.

    Yahoo is operating under Alibaba who has a good history and great understanding of the Internet market in China.

    From the perspectives above, Google is going to have an uphill battle against Baidu (and soon against Yahoo) in China. Unless in the next couple of years, Google can maintain its search quality and come up with some creative invention for the Chinese users, otherwise I don't see how Google can win.

    Posted by: Gordon Choi | April 4, 2007 6:01 AM



  3. is NosyJoe, btw, a playground of Baidu, anyone else heard that?

    Posted by: w2i | April 4, 2007 6:04 AM



  4. You say there are are "56 million new mobile phone users in China every year?" Please recheck your numbers. Cannot be correct!

    Posted by: Andy Jacobs | April 4, 2007 8:55 AM



  5. Aydin & Richard:
    Very informative, thanks.
    Got anything similar for blog search in China? Technorati is blocked there, so who is the local leader?

    Posted by: Otis Gospodnetic | April 4, 2007 10:16 AM



  6. "Today China boasts over 105 million Internet users, not to mention 350M mobile users (growing by 57 million every year)."

    Yeah, I'm wondering about those numbers too... three and a half times more mobile than "regular" users? That sounds too odd to be correct.

    Posted by: fuzzylogic | April 4, 2007 10:26 AM



  7. The numbers are in fact correct. It even seems they need an update: China has *416M* mobile users, which grew by *23.6M* users in first *4 months* of 2006 (my numbers were based on research published in 2006, hence late 2005 figures). The second article below confirms it's definitely more than 349M...

    Please check here:
    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2006-05/22/content_596866.htm
    http://www.china.org.cn/english/BAT/127434.htm

    Also please note that China's population is *1.3 Billion* based on CIA figures, which gives you a mobile penetration of only 27% (if you take the 350M figure I used in the blog post).

    https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/print/ch.html

    Compared with US's mobile penetration of 64.4%, that seems reasonable...

    http://www.geekzone.co.nz/content.asp?contentid=1499

    Posted by: Aydin Senkut | April 4, 2007 10:45 AM



  8. This is great info and something to really think about. Might use some of this info to write on some thoughts!

    Good stuff.

    Posted by: Pablo Palatnik | April 4, 2007 2:13 PM



  9. The Keynote report cited in this article was released on January 18, 2006, one week before Google launched its censored Google.cn site. Google's reputation has not only suffered in the west for this, but also among its user base in China. That the author of this article does not make any mention of this whatsoever is disingenuous, to say the least.

    Posted by: Kevin S. | April 4, 2007 6:22 PM



  10. Google is having some problems becoming multicultural in my opinion. YouTube gets banned for its content because they can't understand Thai culture or politics.

    The massive Asian market will go to the one who has the best understating that western thought is really good for westerners, but it does not always apply to other regions in every case.

    Just some thoughts.

    Posted by: Phil Butler | April 4, 2007 8:52 PM



  11. last part about baidu.jp is interesting!

    Posted by: keanu | April 5, 2007 1:18 AM



  12. I wonder how are startup culture in China. And who is the techcrunch, skype, web2.0 leader in China?

    Posted by: zibin | May 14, 2007 5:29 PM



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