8 Mobile Technologies to Watch in 2009, 2010
Analyst firm Gartner has just released a report that highlights eight up-and-coming mobile technologies which they predict will impact the mobile industry over the course of the next two years. According to Nick Jones, vice president and analyst at the firm, the technologies they've identified will evolve quickly and will likely pose issues that will have to be addressed by short term strategies.
The eight technologies identified include the following:
Bluetooth 3.0
This is one of the no-brainers on the list. The Bluetooth 3.0 specification will be released this year and devices will start to hit the shelves by 2010. At this point, it's expected that the 3.0 spec will include faster speeds, reportedly transferring files at 480 megabits per second in close proximity and 100 megabits per second at 10 meters. It will also feature an ultra-low-power mode that Gartner predicts will enable new peripherals, sensors, and applications, such as health monitoring. The technology will be backwards compatible, allowing old devices to communicate with new ones, so there's no reason for it not take off in the upcoming years.
Mobile User Interfaces + Mobile Web/Widgets
Mobile user interfaces and mobile web/widgets were listed separately, accounting for two items on the list, but we think they can be lumped together. They all point to how mobile computing is rapidly becoming a new platform for everything from consumer mobile apps to B2E (business-to-employee) and B2C (business-to-customer). (Gartner did not include B2B on their list.) Modern day smartphones like the iPhone, Android, Blackberry, the upcoming Pre, and others deliver better interfaces for browsing the web, thus making it accessible to more people. Widget-like applications, including those that replicate thin client technology, will become more common especially in B2C strategies. Yet the mobile web still has challenges ahead. For example, there are no standards for browser access to handset services like the camera or GPS, the report notes.
Location Awareness
Location sensing, powered by GPS as well as Wi-Fi and triangulation, opens up new possibilities for mobile social networking and presence applications. Technology's earliest adopters are already familiar with social networks like Brightkite and Loopt which let you reveal your location to a network of friends. But we're still on the tip of this iceberg. Take for example, the iPhone IM client Palringo, they're just now adding location services to their application. This allows users to see how far away their contacts are, introducing a whole new dimension to mobile communication. Over the next year or two, this sort of technology is expected to become more commonplace, but it will also raise questions about privacy. Will you want your network of online friends and acquaintances to really know your exact location? Will turning off location awareness signal that you're up to something sneaky (so asks the suspicious wife, husband, boss, etc.)? As a society, we will have to answer these questions and more in the near future.
Near Field Communication (NFC)
NFC is a technology that provides a way for consumers to use their mobile phones for making payments, among other things. It's something that has taken off in many countries worldwide, but certainly not all, and definitely not in the United States just yet. Unfortunately, Gartner predicts that the move towards mobile payment systems will still not occur this year or the next in mature markets like the U.S. and Western Europe. Instead, NFC is more likely to take off in emerging markets. Other uses of the technology, such as the ability to transfer photos from phone to digital photo frames, will also remain elusive to more developed markets.
802.11n & Cellular Broadband
802.11n, a specification for wireless local area networks (WLANs), initially gave us pause. Although not ratified as an official standard yet, the technology is already commonplace. However, until it "goes gold" so to speak, it won't really infiltrate the mobile world. Even the ubiquitous iPhone only supports 802.11 b/g at the moment.
On the flip side, the other internet connection technology, cellular broadband, has the potential to make Wi-Fi almost unnecessary, at least for achieving high speeds. In addition to mobile phones, laptop makers will likely continue to incorporate this technology into their netbooks and notebooks using modern chipsets that provide superior performance to our current crop of add-on cards and dongles.
Display Technologies
Display technologies will also see improvements in the upcoming years. New technologies like active pixel displays, passive displays and pico projectors will have an impact. Pico projectors - the tiny portable projectors we saw being introduced at this year's CES - will enable new mobile use cases. Instant presentations in informal settings could become more common when there isn't large, cumbersome equipment to set up. The different types of display technologies introduced in 2009 and 2010 will become important differentiators between devices and will impact user selection criterion, says Gartner.
For more information on these above technologies, you can read through the full report available here on Gartner's web site.
Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments on how you think the mobile space will be impacted in the future.
Comments
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On the list: 1. Bluetooth 3.0
2. Mobile User Interfaces
3. Location Sensing
4. 802.11n
5. Display Technologies
6. Mobile Web and Widgets
7. Cellular Broadband
8. Near Field Communications
Posted by: Sarah Perez
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January 29, 2009 8:29 AM
The big missing piece is advancement in battery tech. Nanowire batteries, ultracapcitors (maybe...), etc. - things will start to get really interesting when we see a big boost in affordable, lightweight, high capacity storage,
Eric - great addition, definitely agree on the battery front.
In fact, most of the things on this list drain the batteries on devices to the point that we are now charging phones daily. Remember when your phone would stay charged for 5 days? Granted, it only made phone calls, but most electronic devices these days are now held back by their batteries.
Sarah you missed Nokias https://www.widsets.com/ platform
Turning off location awareness ? That would be suspicious. Better keep showing the usual patterns as a cover for what you are really doing. I'll only use a mobile location service if I have the freedom to spoof it to suit my deception needs. That is one of the reasons why I like Brightkite : I'm in control of what I disclose. I look forward to using GPS or cell ID to automate the process, but I want manual position entry as a backup and a guarantee that I can declare whatever I want.
@Jean-Marc: Location awareness spoofing applications - cool!!
Set Public to: "Work" / Actual location: "Joe's Pub" / Update Following Groups: "The Guys" / Block: "Everyone Else"
Ha! I totally love it.
802.11 is interoperable, so should continue to see increasing adoption. Cellular broadband is network-dependent (and not always very fast). There are also advantages to 802.11 in routing traffic through a known network rather than directly to the cellular infrastructure.
Posted by: Logical Extremes
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January 29, 2009 10:57 AM
Hi Sarah, great post.
I do think they missed a really important one: Text Messaging.
Americans text twice as much as they talk and while the iPhone and other PDAs are no doubt gaining traction in the marketplace, they have not caught up with the growth of SMS in the US.
Services like Twitter, Mosio, 4INFO and TextMarks are leading the charge in SMS while everyone catches up on their gadget purchases and unlimited data plans, but I think it'll be at least another year before a truly significant part of the country has a smartphone.
Until then (and even beyond), text messaging will continue to grow, not only for communication, but as helpful, quick search and app tools as well.
Thanks!
Man I can't wait until my phone is able to pleasure me.
@nattyb: Umm...... http://ax.search.itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZSearch.woa/wa/search?entity=software&media=all&submit=seeAllLockups&term=massage
I'd add high def video and high del video output to the mix
1. Free wireless broadband on 700mhz White Spaces
2. WiFi Meshing
3. Free voice communications using VOIP
4. Data-centric business models, the end of voice/sms plans.
Charbax nailed it. Technologies that empower the user will ultimately be the most disruptive because they shatter established business models. WiFi on the iPhone for example is more about avoiding data charges than speed.
Great post Sarah!!!
Interesting ... http://bit.ly/wZ1M
@eric - batteries is a major one! I'm personally interested in NFT and cellular broadband. Here in South Africa we have a very advanced cellular network with networks battling on the broad-band-wagon. I just hope the pricing become more reasonable!
Check out http://podmo.com/ - an Aussie startup bluetooth network that performs the functions of a mobile network for free - at the convergence point of half of your list.
All of them are great but the Mobile/Web widgets are future of Mobiles i believe. Specially with the advent of Mobile Commerce in town.
New power options for portable electronics will be announced this year. Not better batteries, power sources using methane that can be recharged instantly any where in the world; or used as a recharger for your current portable electronics. This is a reality and has received all the FAA approvals for transport aboard commercial flights.
It's good to see Bluetooth is moving along. Hopefully lower power consumption will mean mobile devices will not have their batteries drained so much when it is used. Longer range is handy too, I for one like to use programs such as Sailing Clicker on the phone to control my PC from a distance.
You not only to be smart computing but also smart mobile computing.
We agree with Gartner that most of those 8 technologies will be important over the next couple of years. But we feel that aside from Mobile UI innovation, hardware form-factor innovation also needs to be watched. We don't particularly feel that the web widget model will really take off over the next couple of years as iPhone, Android, BlackBerry and even Microsoft are investing heavily into their native app store.
For our full commentary, check our posting at http://www.skratchboard.com/?p=479.
regards,
J.
SkratchBoard.com