Gartner Hype Cycle 2009: Web 2.0 Trending Up, Twitter Down
Analyst firm Gartner has just released its latest Hype Cycle white paper, detailing some of the biggest trends in technology this year. According to the report, cloud computing, e-books and Internet TV are at the "Peak of Inflated Expectations," while this year's biggest hit Twitter is said to have "tipped over the peak" and is just about to enter the infamous "Trough of Disillusionment." Social software suites and other microblogging services are likewise starting their downward trend. Interestingly, web 2.0 is deemed to be nearly past the Trough and entering the "Slope of Enlightenment."
One of our current topics of interest, RFID, is stuck right at the bottom of the Trough of Disillusionment. But another RWW hot topic, Augmented Reality, is on the rise.
Web 2.0, cloud computing, Internet TV and RFID are all labeled "transformational" by Gartner, meaning that they are predicted to have a big impact on the market. Microblogging is only ranked "moderate," so Gartner doesn't think that Twitter is a very meaningful technology.
We can't help but feel that Gartner may be underestimating the impact of microblogging. It remarks that services like Twitter enable "new kinds of fast, witty, easy-to assimilate exchanges." Microblogging is rated as having a "moderate" impact on business, however Gartner does not analyze the over-arching trend of Real-time web that microblogging exemplifies. They do make a good point that "channel pollution" is a current issue with these services, however this is where the ecosystem of search and filtering products - around Twitter especially - are proving their worth. See also our post earlier today about the new distributed forms of microblogging that may rise to take Twitter's place over time.
Gartner states that Cloud computing is "changing the way the IT industry looks at user and vendor relationships." It points to vendors such as Amazon.com, Google, Microsoft and salesforce.com.
Regarding eBooks, Gartner has a bob each way: "This technology is potentially revolutionary if the issues that have suppressed adoption are addressed." It lists Amazon.com, Fujitsu, Plastic Logic and Sony as sample vendors.
Gartner's conclusion about RFID is similar to our own - that it's moving slowly. Gartner notes that "the number of leading retailers working with it [RFID] did not grow greatly through 2008 and will not grow significantly during the next two years."
On Web 2.0, Gartner archly notes that "the Web 2.0 hype has peaked as constituencies vie for the next generation of the Web." However it also puts Web 2.0 in the "early mainstream" and is bullish on its future. Note: we reviewed the latest attempt at the next buzzword, Web squared, last week.
Overall, this report is an interesting high level view of the state of technology. It's quite business focused though, so Gartner perhaps overlooks some of the more exciting new consumer Web trends that we've been writing about this year on ReadWriteWeb: real-time Web, Internet of Things, mobile web, to name a few.
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Hype curve is something I look forward to every year.. Gartner is really good in plotting this, you might wonder if they have a crystal ball!
I could not disagree more with the bitches at Gartner; they are so wrong most of the time that they can stick their magic quadrants where the sun don't shine. Paid Whores. A Shanda on all true analysts.
RFID is actually experiencing a renaissance in new, affordable tools and cool API's. Even my young nephews can think up heretofore un-envisioned possible uses for RFID dev kits - things I never even dreamed possible, these Ritalin weaned tweens muse for a few minutes and come up with RFID crack worthy product ideas.
Tell Gartner to go pull their Garters - or as my Yiddishe Bubby would say to that useless bunch of dweebs, "Gay Kakken".
I would argue that 'Microblogging', or at least the Activity Stream consequences it brings can be quite big.
I also believe that Microblogging will indeed have a bigger impact than what Gartner seems to imagine. The massive number of recent Twitter users are just beginning to play around with it and to find out how it might benefit them. Some will abandon Twitter after a single tweet, and some will find ways to get value out of the real-time aspects of it. Just yesterday I participated for the first time in a live Twitter-originating discussion thread, courtesy of the new service created by Joshua Schachter - a.tinythread.com. The ability to have a live (real-time) discussion with anyone who's interested gives rise to collaborative ideas and interaction that would never have taken place before. Check out the discussion that took place about this new service and the types of new features that would be useful in it, started by Robin Good: http://a.tinythread.com/qkHvAGTyX6.
And no mention at all for the semantic web/linked data. Is that because it has been up and down the inflated expectations hill a couple of times so Gartner doesn't know where to put it? Or just that they don't think it's important enough to mention?
Posted by: billroberts.myopenid.com
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August 11, 2009 11:48 PM
If Gartner were God then this was the truth.
Luckily Gartner is not God.
...but this up-and-down in the hype cycle is a fundamentally-incorrect misinterpretation of what Gartner's hype cycle represents = Twitter is pegged as delivering moderate impact within two to five years. What i do find confusing is the definition of the so-called Web 2.0 and how social media services like lifestreaming and corporate blogging fit are (or are not) part of Web 2.0 and mash-ups and so forth. This particular hype cycle (Emerging Technologies) is notoriously not an apples-with-apples situation. In short:
1. learn about the hype cycles from places like http://twu.sh/aeS (gartner on the hype cycle) and (http://twu.sh/aeT (the gartner book).
2. know that Gartner is telling the truth, albeit in a Gartneresque lingo.
3. realise that crossing the peak of inflated expectations is a *good thing*.
I hope this forecast about twitter is again wrong like sveral others.I can't remember how many times I have read articles and blogs predicting the end of twitter. Thank God, I decided to still give twitter a try. Its a great tool to boast traffic and get informed about latest happenings in your industry if you take pains to select the right followers and follow the revelant few. Relying on the hundreds of twitter engines may get you thousands of followers but not the right follower. Twitter will survive for those who know how to use it.
cheers, http://4-advice.net/blog/ict/
Great article!
Gartner should just end the hype cycle at the trough, at least for Web 2.0. It's ironic that they have invented a model to describe the characteristic success and failure pattern of their own bullshitting corporate practices.
These impossible-to-define analyst-firm hype terms like "Web 2.0" have no value for people who actually work in an industry. What is Web 2.0 supposed to be again? AJAX? REST? Social networking? User-created content? All of the above, including anything an entrepreneur comes up with for the web after the year 2000?
When a marketing term like that can't even be properly defined, or when everyone conflicts on their definitions of the thing, you know it is essentially worthless.
I wish we could have augmented reality products now - not in 10 years :( impatient, it's going to be so revolutionary.
Missed virtual currencies like www.zeevex.com
You have to be careful when interpreting the hype and disillusionment part of the cycle as a negative. In Gartner's context, these are necessary steps that a technology must take before crossing the chasm from early adopter and early market to market acceptance.
Many if not all technologies go through a period where there is more speculation than reality. Then the reality settles in, some adopters fall off, and then the serious use cases emerge and real money is spent.
Taking Twitter as an example, how many people sign up for a twitter account, tweet once and never again? But two years later they find themselves statusing on facebook. The verdict on web facing micro-blogging is still in flux. The excitement around it, and twitter specifically, will likely fall off as micro-blogging becomes established - just as was the case with macro-blogging (otherwise known as "blogging").
Of course, some technologies fall into disillusionment before they get a chance to rise the slope of enlightenment. As we see it, and Gartner seems to agree, social software platforms, and Traction TeamPage in particular, are finding their way into mainstream enterprise - with Wiki as the leading app where enterprises see real and obvious value. Read More at: Skiing on the Slope of Enlightenment
Good to see what Gartner think, helps us with our RiverMuse roadmap - tempered with customer views of course
how many new internet-tv announcements and innovations are we supposed to bear?
until one really works?
i don't quite understand why tv is here in the medium term-high impact area...
Well, I'm not really sure that Gartner considers that microblogging (ie Twitter) is "down"; regarding to the figure, it is more or less in the "peak of inflated expectations... See my article there .
Here is the link (regarding to my comment)... http://tinyurl.com/pqrj8q
I don't see how they can say that microbloggin is moderate-impact, I see it was a large supplier of our news within the next 3 years.
Here's a response from Gartner (posted, incidentally, on Twitter: http://twitter.com/Gartner_inc/status/3411688817) that explains in simple terms how the Hype Cycle works, and indicates that crossing the peak of inflated expectations is not the same thing as commencing a slow death: http://blogs.gartner.com/jeffrey_mann/
how many new internet-tv announcements and innovations are we supposed to bear?
until one really works?
RFID and the retail supply chain are correctly labeled as being five years away from mainstream adoption but there has been a "prefect storm" of three concurrent events which are propelling RFID forward for Healthcare, Aerospace, Government, and Asset Managment. Those industries are 18-24 months away from mass adoption because:
1. Technology has greatly improved in the last 12 months
2. Cost is less than half of what it was just three years ago
3. international (ISO and EPC) standards have stabilized
More than 65% of the major medical device manufacturers have adopted RFID this year with a proven ROI in less than 12 months. That is transformational technology.
You can hear a supply chain executive from J&J talk about it here: http://tinyurl.com/RFID-HC