Bill Gates spoke yesterday at the TechNet event at Stanford University. Here are his thoughts on what changes IT will make in society over the next 10 years:
"Changes are now coming faster than ever. We'll be seeing more and more students using tablets instead of stacks of books in schools and in online learning. We'll have computers that can see and learn like people ... we'll continue to see major breakthroughs in software development, in things like voice recognition, gaming [and] video. We're on to new and important advances in IT, just as we were at the advent of the PC.
In gaming, [the] TV, high-definition video [and] PC are all coming together now in the Xbox. Voice recognition will get better ... software and services with improved interfaces wrapped around them will be coming soon. Our new Zune [media player] has built-in Wi-Fi, so you can send your friends music and photos and messages ... we'll continue to see this kind of innovation building on top of what we have today. We're moving toward more connected entertainment everywhere."
While it is a very Microsoft-centric view of the future (using tablets instead of books, Xbox, etc), it helps to remind ourselves every now and then of the high level trends for the Web. The theme of connected entertainment is one in which Microsoft is strongly positioning itself, despite the hiccups in this week's Zune release.
If all goes well for Microsoft (a big 'if'), in 10 years time they will be the software that powers a lot of connected entertainment - just as in the 80's and 90's they provided the OS for the majority of PCs. The multi-billion dollar question is: can they get the same kind of dominance in connected entertainment as in the PC?
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There are many variables that will get much more clear in the following 2-3 months: How will consumers react to Vista, will they prefer the default search engine Live.com over Google, the Google - Live wars, what will be the effect of the new eye-candy Linux distributions on the desktop market, Zune, xBox-PS3, will Google respond with its own operating system, etc etc etc... Then we'll see what's really happening.. But there's one thing that is sure: we have exciting days in front of us...
Posted by: Emre Sokullu | November 16, 2006 7:23 PM
I know this is comming; what we're trying to do with Tamago is to create a market place for media, so in conjunction with the TV/Living room convergance, you'll also have people sharing and selling the media they create between each other.
Posted by: lemon obrien | November 16, 2006 7:24 PM
MSFT is trying to difersify too much. Lets see how they fair ? But if they are taking this fight, then its much more difficult than windows or office. Internet is a great leveller and micorsoft now would have to compete with others at the same level..
Posted by: dhoom | November 17, 2006 9:56 AM
The problem with M$ is that it is too engulfed in the maze of its own technologies and products. For ex. Bill's speeches have been talking of Voice recognition since they launched it first with Office XP - however hardly any other player ever emulated them and more importantly the technology hasn't seen any acceptance and use among users.
The same might happen with Zune or XBox (though the situation won't be that bad because they already have competition in this area). But the central point is that M$'s obsession with a vision that limits itself to its own range of products and technologies and their reluctance to see other emerging trends, severely limits their ability to make huge impacts for the future of Web and Computing.
Posted by: Nikhil Kulkarni | November 17, 2006 10:30 AM
OS of the future ... that's like saying that a particular paper manufacturer wanted to be the "paper of books for the future" back in 1440's. Or a plastic maker saying I want to be the "telephone of the future". We don't care 'how', it's 'what' we do when we get there that matters.
Surely the OS is irrelevant as we all go online and use standards (browsers, Java, Shockwave and all the other bits that bring it all together) - I know, it's not quite there yet but seriously folks isn't everything (content, connections, contacts, music, videos, games ...) sloooowly being web-ised and put online. And as we get permanent, reliable and fast-enough connections we just won't care about the "how" but more the "what".
Posted by: Mike Riversdale | November 17, 2006 4:39 PM
This isn't a dig on Microsoft, as much as a reality check - in order to be the "OS of entertainment", they need serious work on their stability. In something like 5 years of Tivo usage, I think the box crashed once. The only mobile phone I've ever had to reboot in order to make calls is my Windows smartphone.
We tolerate instability and problems when we're working, but can you imagine if your TV had to be rebooted every few hours?
Posted by: Jake | November 18, 2006 12:30 PM