Google is like a box of chocolates
Mike Arrington's a bit peeved at Google. His post is a good vent, but to me the key bit was way down in comment number 33:
"...my main gripe is that I want to understand what Google’s overall game plan is. I just don’t see it."
Nobody knows what Google's grand plan is - I suspect not even Google. Here's what I wrote in my post on Google Spreadsheet (nb: written the day before its release):
"So in the final analysis, the main benefit of web-based Office products is that they'll extend the functionality of desktop office products in many useful ways. I expect Google Spreadsheet to do all these things, but almost certainly in a beta form to begin with. If this release is like all the other Google betas, the functionality will be a bit clumsy to begin with - but watch closely as they iterate it over time into a very powerful web-based product (like they did with Gmail, etc)."
And that right there is Google's "overall game plan" - to release clumsy web apps and iterate them until they extend the functionality that we're used to. It won't always work - Froogle anyone? But they've changed the game before - I'd argue three times. First with search, then with online advertising, and thirdly with email (obviously not to the same degree as the other two!).
That's what makes Google so dangerous. You never know what you're gonna get.
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It’s like developing software:
The more elaborately used and traditional methodologies (PMM, Waterfall, etc.) make you create tons of documentation, thousands of prediction models, and forces you to give estimated release dates. Companies spend just as much money, if not more money, on trying to predict and manage their software than to actually developing it. All of which is totally worthless in the end and you never come close to those numbers. What were they for? To ease management anxiety and to provide CEOs with reports to present to the board so they can ‚Äústeer‚Ä? the ship. The people steering the ship in most of these companies don‚Äôt know anything about software or IT. But they do know the ‚Äúgood old boy‚Ä? network and politics though. Those people focus on different things than those people who actually know and work down in the trenches.
Google is more like XP when it comes to developing software. I think they believe more in spending your time and resources in actually developing software than trying to predict where they are going and what they will be doing 10 years from now. They simply just say: ‚ÄúHey, we don‚Äôt know what‚Äôs going to happen 10 years from now. Why worry about it. But we do know what‚Äôs going on now and maybe a year or two from now. Let‚Äôs focus on that.‚Ä? They know what people want now and can make it now. This is because they don‚Äôt have the politics and processes to deal with that bog down other large companies.
Posted by: kego | June 7, 2006 6:39 AM
I just posted a comment there, then checked this. This is exactly what I was thinking too.
You make great points about their 3 innovations, it's true. I mean, to say you have completely innovated (and some would say conquered may I add):
1. Search
2. Email
3. Online Advertising
... that is just simply amazing.
So let's wait and see. I'm sure it's going to be interesting.
Posted by: Blaze | June 7, 2006 7:25 AM
I think you're spot on. It's both frustrating and exciting for early adopters of Google's technology. One thing to point out is that for some reason people have a lot of tolerance for Google, but hardly any for Microsoft. Case in point, Google can release buggy software and everybody is cool with it, but when Microsoft releases buggy software, they're lambasted for it. I think it may have less to do with the companies and more to do with the medium. That is, people seem to be more forgiving with web apps, while they have much higher expectations for os-based apps. This may have to do with most users not taking web apps seriously yet. However, once they become as ubiquitous as os-based apps, I don't think people will continue to be as tolerant of buggy web apps as they have in the past.
Posted by: Jon Henshaw | June 7, 2006 7:49 AM
Here's Google's plan: throw a bunch of projects against the wall and see which one sticks. Take away the revenue requirement, and let these engineers create something cool. And who knows? You may invent the next Google search, or the next MySpace while no one is looking.
Posted by: Hashim | June 7, 2006 8:13 AM
Well, strictly speaking it was Overture who changed online advertising. But the engineering know-how of Google is deeply impressive.
Posted by: Tom | June 7, 2006 9:08 AM
Here is what Google is trying to do:
Control every piece of content be it blogs, html, word documents, spreadsheets, video, images, e-mail, maps, newsgroups, news, books, calendars, chat, voice and so on.
Sorry Google for revealing your master plan.
Posted by: Mimoun Raddahi | June 7, 2006 1:21 PM
Interesting post, but I beg to differ. We always know what we are going to get from Google - a little bit of everything. Sounds familiar, doesn't it? :)
Posted by: Otis Gospodnetic | June 7, 2006 2:18 PM
As for the 3 innovations thing... let's not forget the fact that Google maps was pretty much the catalyst for all this AJAX innovation going on today.
Posted by: Ryan Gahl | June 7, 2006 8:13 PM
I am not surprising users are forgiving to Google and web apps (as opposed to Microsoft), #3. You see those apps are for free!
What is not for free is Google shares and I wonder for how long investors will be forgiving to Google not showing a comprehensive roadmap, especially when ad revenue will start to shrink due to competition. Will Google remain the developers' playground then?
Posted by: Harry | June 7, 2006 11:53 PM
@Harry: Won't happen.
Why do you think Google has had an "uncanny" knack for knowing where markets are going... just think about it for a split second.
You think they DON'T have extremely talented analysts looking at all the search trends, and highly sophisticated algorithms to help them predict this stuff?? It's not like it's just some Marketing Guy thinking up this stuff... they have the absolute best competitive advantage imaginable. People tell them EVERY DAY what they want, all they have to do is act on it.
Posted by: Ryan Gahl | June 8, 2006 10:56 AM