I'm no stock market expert, but Adam Hewison from MarketClub has produced a 9-minute video that even I can follow. It uses stock chart theory to predict the fortunes of Google and Yahoo stocks this year - concluding that Yahoo will probably have the most percentage gain:
The chart above is the Yahoo one, which has fallen over the last year. But MarketClub maintains that Yahoo potentially will gain 24% when it moves over 30.00 (it's currently 28.35), whereas they think Google will probably gain only 11% when it breaks over 513.00 (currently it is 481.75).
Still, if you look at it from a technology perspective - you could say that buying Google at 500-odd will turn out to be a huge bargain in the long term, if they manage to take over the Internet as some people are predicting. And from a tech pov, there's a reason Yahoo is struggling at 28 - their online advertising technology is behind the times and their new Panama initiative is far from certain to be a success, in competition with Google's dominant AdWords.
But I tend to agree that Yahoo has plenty of fight left in it yet, from both a tech and stock standpoint. What do you think?
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Pretty simple analysis but the point still rings through. Google is a great stock with legs but for most investors Yahoo also has some very compelling reaons and is more within reach.
Posted by: Adrian keys | February 2, 2007 6:47 AM
I think Yahoo will be a best choice in 2007 than Google, but take some care, because more profit means also more risk.
BTW someone knows wich software is he using?
Posted by: Guido | February 2, 2007 9:43 AM
We've reviewed Yahoo's patents and found that they have a strong base in search advertising platform technologies. Since search-based advertising is lucrative, Yahoo just needs to ramp up its search engine popularity in terms of advertising to bolster its ad revenues.
Google's issued patent portfolio is actually small (relative to its size) and based on the speed at which they were able to create their position in the face of well funded competitors (MSN and Yahoo), an investment premise that Yahoo can grow profits in a big, growing and profitable arena is logical.
Posted by: patent-monkey | February 2, 2007 11:37 AM
If Yahoo can make an easy to use clone for Adsense for search and Adsense for content (adwords), then they will do fine... web publishers are savvy and will use both to see who they can make more money from. If Google jerks them around (like it does to many of them), then they will move over and use Yahoo. On the back end (price per click that advertisers pay) there should be arbitrage and the prices should be exactly the same... Yahoo just needs to hire some smart people to get the company moving!
Posted by: Matt@MIT | February 2, 2007 12:47 PM
You claim that it's quite easy to understand the video and yet I'm having a hard time following. Perhaps it's because I like to think of stock value defined by business fundamentals rather than technical trading. All they do is draw a bunch of lines with no backup and undefined slopes. Anyone could draw those lines slightly differently and come to different conclusions. As for their conclusions about resistance and value that can be reached when the stock "breaks out" of its sideways behavior...where is the rationale on the ultimate target when it breaks out? They just make up numbers (Google's $573 forecast). No reasoning at all. 11% potential gain is completely made up. At least Wall Street analysts try to come to some logical answer even if they're wrong half the time. These guys are just scam artists and I'm disappointed to see you posting their garbage.
And btw, I agree that Yahoo is a better buy than Google right now, but for different reasons than a bunch of lines and circles drawn at a whim.
Posted by: Tommy | February 3, 2007 4:13 AM
With the implementation of Panama on Yahoo!, small businesses will have to look to other Internet Marketing choices like bookmarking, directories, and text links.
Posted by: link directory Rx | February 3, 2007 1:42 PM
I agree, that Yahoo has the opportunity to engineer a fabulous turnaround and provide a lot of lift. Read this:
4C: Yahoo's Turnaround Formula
Posted by: Sramana Mitra | February 3, 2007 5:20 PM