Disclosure: the writer of this article, Emre Sokullu, joined Hakia as a Search Evangelist in March 2007. The following article in no way represents Hakia's views - it is Emre's personal opinions only.
Google is like a young mammoth, already very strong but still growing. Healthy quarter results and rising expectations in the online advertising space are the biggest factors for Google to keep its pace in NASDAQ. But now let's think outside the square and try to figure out a Google killer scenario. You may know that I am obsessed with open source (e.g. my projects openhuman and simplekde), so my proposition will be open source based - and I'll call it Google@Home.
First let me define what my concept of Google@Home is. Briefly, Google@Home is an open source, distributed clone of Google. We already have many open source search engine projects - Apache Lucene (which is composed of Nutch and Hadoop distributed file system sub-projects) being the most credible one. So this Google@Home concept can be based on one of those open source search engines. Of course it will have a long way to go before reaching Google's utility and reach. But more importantly, Google@Home will be a distributed, decentralized system. What this means is that our desktop computers' idle time will become a part of this new search engine's computational power. In effect this allows it to compete with Google's beefy data centers. This is not a new concept either, SETI@Home and Folding@Home are 2 well known scientific projects that use the same grid computing idea in their cores. Indeed Google itself is the biggest supporter of Stanford University based Folding@Home, by dedicating the resources of their toolbars to this project.
The distributed nature of the engine is what makes it different from Wikipedia co-founder Jimmy Wales' Wikiasari project, which is an open source wiki-inspired search engine. While Wikiasari's power may come from Wikipedia, its weakest chain is too much human dependency; the power of masses worked well in the open, community driven encyclopedia project, Wikipedia. But vandalism has still been present - albeit at a manageable level. I'm not sure if this can work so well in search engines though.
Well the concept is clear, but you may wonder about the motivation behind it - why would anyone, an organization or a loosely formed group of people, unite around such a project; and why would people dedicate their computer's' idle time to this? Here are some reasons:
Who would create an open source Google clone?
Perhaps, Google itself. Or Google competitors such as Ask or Yahoo. Also it might be something that P2P kings Niklas Zennstrom and Janus Friisk are up to - besides their Joost project. Everything is possible, but in my opinion the most plausible option would be a joint attack by direct competitors. Indeed perhaps the best fit would be the classic "closed source" company Microsoft!! This could be a mirror response to Google, who up till now has leveraged most of its PR towards Microsoft's 'evil' closed source approach (i.e. the subtle 'do no evil' mantra of Google). Stranger things have happened.
Another idea, this Google@Home project can make more use of power of masses in its core - Google is still reluctant to use the direct power of masses idea in its search. Yahoo, on the other hand, with their new unified Social Search Unit seems more ambitious in this arena. As a total underdog, Google@Home would be more open to such innovations and could probably profit from these new paradigms.
How could you support this type of search engine with a complementary distributed and open source ad network? Baris Karadogan has more about this in his blog. (I met him at a conference last week and it turned out that surprisingly we hatched and blogged about these similar concepts at the same time!)
Yes. this is my 'Google killer' scenario. There are many open questions though - some of them are:
Let us know what you think, and also your 'Google killer' scenarios too!
Disclosure: Emre Sokullu now works for Hakia, as a Search Evangelist. He started at Hakia in March 2007.