Less Than 1 Year Until The Internet Runs Out of Addresses
The Internet will run out of Internet addresses in about 1 year's time, we were told today by John Curran, President and CEO of the American Registry for Internet Numbers (ARIN). The same thing was also stated recently by Vint Cerf, Google's Chief Internet Evangelist.
The main reason for the concern? There's an explosion of data about to happen to the Web - thanks largely to sensor data, smart grids, RFID and other Internet of Things data. Other reasons include the increase in mobile devices connecting to the Internet and the annual growth in user-generated content on the Web.
IPv4 countdown on Twitter - less than a year to go before IPv4 addresses run out...
Why a New Internet Protocol is Needed
Currently the Web largely uses IPv4, Internet Protocol version 4. Each IPv4 address is limited to a 32-bit number, which means there are a maximum of just over 4 billion unique addresses. IPv6 is the next generation Internet Protocol and uses a 128-bit address, so it supports a vastly larger number of unique addresses. Enough, in fact, to give every person on the planet over 4 billion addresses! Update: Dave Evans, Chief Technologist of the Internet Business Solutions Group at Cisco, wrote in to advise that "it's closer to 50 thousand trillion trillion addresses per person." (reference)
John Curran from ARIN, the non-profit responsible for managing the distribution of Internet addresses in the North American region, told ReadWriteWeb that of the approximately 4 billion IPv4 addresses available, all but 6% have already been allocated. Curran expects the final 6% to be allocated over the coming year.
This is largely an issue that ISP (Internet Service Providers) and telecoms carriers need to deal with. However content service providers, including large-scale Internet companies like Google and Facebook, also need to ensure that the transition from IPv4 to IPv6 takes place. Curran explained that a content company like Google (for example its YouTube operation) will need to work with its ISP to transport the content via IPv6 as well as IPv4.
This transition is happening "slowly," says Curran. But he warns that "deployment is where we're behind."
Google, Facebook & Others Making Good Progress
John Curran told us that large carriers like Verizon and Comcast have announced trial IPv6 activity. Curran also noted that new Internet of Things initiatives that use sensor networks, power grids, RFID and similar technologies, are being directed to use IPv6 and not IPv4.
There is also solid support from the big Internet companies. Curran said that Google has already put the majority of its services onto IPv6. Declaring its support for IPv6 on a special webpage, Google states that "IPv6 is essential to the continued health and openness of the Internet [and] will enable innovation and allow the Internet's continued growth."
In June, Google held a Google IPv6 Implementors Conference. At that event, Facebook announced that it had begun to use IPv6.
In his opening remarks to the conference, Google's Chief Internet Evangelist Vint Cerf urges ISPs to move to IPv6, so that a "black market" for Internet addresses won't occur.
Another Y2K?
Critics view some of the push for IPv6 as Chicken Little 'the sky is falling' talk. Commented @ajbraun, a self-described technology leader at Sony Ericsson, via Twitter: "We should call this "IPv6: Y2K II." An obvious issue for 10 years, we will panic at the end and finally much ado about nothing."
Others see a technology called NAT (Network Address Translation) as a solution - it maps multiple addresses to a single IP address, thus reducing the amount of unique IP addresses required. However this is at best a temporary solution. Google argued back in 2008 that NAT and similar technologies "complicate the Internet's architecture, pose barriers to the development of new applications, and run contrary to network openness principles."
Whether or not there is Y2K-style fear mongering, the bottom line is that IPv6 is a much larger platform for the coming Internet of Things. So one way or another, the move will have to be made.
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@ajbraun gets my vote. Did I hear bailout!?
Won't much of the data explosiuon occur within sub-domains?
This is much expected, damn.
they will always find a way, it's not possible that internet technology stops here
Shift from IPv4 to IPv6 states that the Internet is growing at a speed of beyond visual range. This change was required and the transformation has started. Thanks to ARIN for its thought on the future of virtual world.
Hey Richard, Can we just go to IPv8 instead? :)
Always,
Phil
Sorry but that guy John Curran looks like never touched any networking books or even asked his mediate co-worker what network is... he probably knows more about Twitter than how network works.
Just like one of the guys said above, bailout... they are in for some more money.
Don't like to act like smart as* but it's true.
Sincerely,
CCNE
I think the transition will be smooth, as we have been talking about that for years now (i.e., hopefully the infrastructure companies did their homework).
Just for a bit of clarity, IPv6 is a necessity. It just that in the telecom sector we have been working on this for many many years. (Before Sony Ericsson, I was with Nortel back when that company existed :p) I only meant to suggest that we will spend the next year with a bunch of hand wringing only to find out that the technology sector is quite resilient and will handle the problem without impending diaster. Just as we did during y2k.
With 128 bit addresses everyone on the planet can have 10^32 addresses.
All lies.
I hope that they are wrong. This will be something else that I will have to learn how to work with. They will come up with something. The internet is, too important.
My math teacher friend says this is mathematically impossible.
@Mimi Your math teacher friend needs to go back to school. Perhaps he/she is unaware that each octet is limited to 2^8? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IP_address#IP_version_4_addresses
The good news is that Windows and other Operating systems have been adding support over the past few years and almost all of the modern Ethernet cards in computers should have native support for IPv6 addresses.
Main issue will be transitioning to the IPv6 structure as most DNS records do not have any IPv6 A records. Also sucks you will not be able to easily memorize IPv6 addresses like you can with IPv4 ones.
for some reason i think this is the time to unveil my newest project an easier internet that will probaly use the 128 bit protocol
he current plan, in place since the late 1970s, is running out of open addresses, and a new scheme called IPv6 is being put in place to power the Internet's next stage of growth
I've actually been wondering why Microsoft has been putting IPv6 in their recent Operating System. Now I understand that it is in preparation for the big switch over.
Somehow, somehow, we all will manage to adapt to the new change. Internet won't just disappear into thin air. This doesn't sound as terrible as Y2k panic ;-)
I am amazed even today that the four billion addresses is enough. Not that every person should have their own, but considering the multiplication of access-points per world-wide-used domain names, plus every household with one at least, plus every business, plus every mobile device - that's a lot!
Much can be solved by proxying through routers, but I can't wait for IP6 and this whole craze to be over. Who wouldn't want their dog to have its own IP address?
"NAT [...] maps multiple addresses to a single IP address, thus reducing the amount of unique IP addresses required."
Unfortunately, this also creates an addressability problem, as computers or Internet-of-Things devices behind a NAT do not have an individual IP address.
"There's an explosion of [...] Internet of Things data."
To enable addressability despite NATs and access to 100'000s of Internet-connected devices with sensors/actuators in today's IPv4 world, we are working on a simple, open and scalable relay infrastructure based on Linden Lab's Reverse HTTP. For more info, please visit http://yaler.org/
Posted by: tamberg.myopenid.com
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July 23, 2010 5:14 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_address_translation#Drawbacks
The guides "IPv6 Executive Briefing" & "IPv6 Project Planning Guide" have been developed by non-profits 6UK, Nominet, the CBI and Intellect and are available under Creative Commons licensing.
At http://www.6uk.org.uk/resources
Kind regards.
Posted by: sheldrake.myopenid.com
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July 24, 2010 12:00 AM
Something needs to be done for implementing iPv6 before it is too late. We don't want to have another Y2K situation when everything basically came to a screeching halt. All internet powers should come together and make it happened.
NAT
Could you write an article on what happens when there are no more addresses?
Seen lots of IPv5 discussion lately. Security? Hummm?
I'm sorry...I have not been able to find this one on the Mayan calendar yet. Can you point it out for me?
We are going to run out of internet addresses sooner rather than later and that is undeniable.
I am sure that ARIN and Google aren't saying "the sky is falling" for the fun of it. It is better to project a sense of urgency than it is to remain complacent.
see www.ipv6forum.com
If you don't go to IP v6 the only thing that will happen is that you will not be able to access web sites that are running IPv6.
You'll just be stuck with nothing more than an old static internet .. missing all the new stuff. For ISPs this is no-brainer, who'd want to sell half-assed internet access?!
For consumer hardware OEMs, I can already see that they are planing on milking this for every penny. Nothing on the shelves at Staples, Best Buy, OfficeMax, Fry's or whatever is ready for IPv6. What's more I was unable to find support for IPv6 unless I went to the more expensive vendors, OR the embedded Linux solutions; DD-WRT, Open-WRT or M0n0wall. While a few other embedded Linux solution are promising support in a future version that's all vaporware.
The short and sweet is there are opportunities for people who really know what they are doing to clean up due to the industry's laziness.