Morgan Stanley: Mobile Internet Market Will Be Twice The Size of Desktop Internet
Morgan Stanley has released a couple of bulky documents about the mobile Internet: 'The Mobile Internet Report,' a 424-page report which explores eight major themes; and 'The Mobile Internet Report Key Themes,' a 659-slide presentation that drills down on thoughts covered in the report. We've embedded both documents below.
Perhaps the most remarkable statement in the report is that the Mobile Internet market will be "at least 2x size of Desktop Internet," which Morgan Stanley bases on analysis comparing Internet users with mobile subscribers.
The report starts out by saying that Apple's iPhone/iTouch/iTunes ecosystem "may prove to be the fastest ramping and most disruptive technology product / service launch the world has ever seen." It goes on to state that "a handful of incumbents (like Apple, Google, Amazon.com and Skype) appear especially well positioned for mobile changes."
Growth in the Mobile Internet is being driven by 3G adoption and the increasing popularity of smartphones, of which the iPhone is the leader in terms of Web traffic. Morgan Stanley predicts that smartphones "will out-ship the global notebook + netbook market in 2010E and out-ship the global PC market (notebook + netbook + desktop) by 2012E."
The firm has always been bullish on mobile Internet, as Mary Meeker's Web 2.0 conference presentations over the years show. See also our analysis of Meeker's 2009 Web 2.0 presentation.
The reports are far too big to summarize here, so we recommend you read them below - or download from Morgan Stanley's website.
See also: Top 5 Web Trends of 2009: Mobile Web & Augmented Reality and Top 10 Mobile Web Products of 2009
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There's a good summary of the key points by a local tech blog here in Scandinavia. Don't worry, it's in English.
http://www.arcticstartup.com/2009/12/15/we-read-the-morgan-stanley-mobile-internet-report-so-you-dont-have-to
today when you are buying a new mobile phone, you look for totally new features you weren't taking into your considerations a couple of years ago. now, it's not just the option of browsing the internet that matters, instead it's how fast it is, and what technology does it use to access the internet.
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Richard -
Building on this -- I posted on why Apple is Google's largest threat - how they are imo going to launch some version of AdWords in a web-based app store: http://www.appolicious.com/articles/1004-why-apple-is-google-s-largest-threat
Be great to chat live
I thought it was interesting (I'm about halfway through the report) that the barriers to actually getting on the Web are lower now than ever before in history, and predicted to get even lower, since it's becoming a universal feature on any phone to have Web access. That's why relatively undeveloped countries are outpacing mobile Web usage in the United States.
What does iPod Touch has to do with Mobile 3G Internet???
Your statement that the iPhone is the leading smartphone is factually incorrect. Worldwide, Blackberry's outnumber iPhones 8 to 1 (some sources even say it is 10 to 1).
Oliver, I agree that line is ambiguous. I meant the leader in smartphone worldwide Mobile Internet traffic, which according to AdMob it is. I've added a link to clarify.
NoNonsense,
Where do you get your information?
From RIMM's own website:
http://www.rim.com/investors/pdf/Q1F10_financial.pdf
28.5 Million TOTAL subscribers as of May 30,2009.
Are you suggesting that Apple had only three million iPhone users in the world at that time? Apple shipped 7.4 million iPhones in the June-Sept quarter.
RIMM's replacement market is much larger than Apple's, they've been making phones for much longer. You can't count units sold over company history to judge market share. There were probably millions of Blackberries in landfills before the first iPhone shipped.
I'd like to see a vibrant competition for the iPhone, but I don't see that coming from RIMM.
could someone compare these slides to those MS made pre dot com bust? looks like someone is replacing dot com for mobile now on those slides.
With all this potential internet smartphone growth, only Google seems to be making any big money from it. All those iPhones and iPod Touches aren't doing anything much for Apple's stock growth. There doesn't seem to be any correlation between the number of smartphones sold and making money from it. Look at RIM. All those millions of BlackBerry smartphones moved every quarter and that company's stock is shot and dying a slow death. Only Google is figuring out how to make money from the smartphone boom. All Google has to do is mention a rumored Google phone to get investors to pour money in. Google's shares cost three times what Apple shares cost and investors would much rather buy Google shares because of it's potential. Google won't have to do very much except get lots of Android devices in everyone's hands and tell them to click on ads to keep Google's revenue pouring in.
Apple's growth and investor interest has just about come to a standstill while Google keeps motoring on pushing to overtake Microsoft in size and value. Constantly buying companies, constantly coming out with new phone apps that people can really use. Apple again missed their chance to catch Microsoft and now has to chase Google, too.
Apple is wasting time and effort trying to give the elite 20% or so of the global population a good internet surfing experience. iTunes isn't making any money for Apple and neither is the App store. People of the world only want cheap web-surfing devices they can afford and that's what Google is going to give the global masses.
The fun part is going to be watching so many major brands and big agencies trip over themselves and fail at mobile. Like Social Media they'll figure that since they have a mobile phone, they get mobile marketing. As we've seen from countless mis-steps by major brands and agencies, that formula doesn't work.
Damn Google and Android. Apple again loses out to those that cater to the unwashed masses of the world by sheer volume. First the desktop to Microsoft and now the mobile internet to Google. Apple should build a search engine and steal some sh!t from Google.
RIM had 40% and Apple had 30% in September according to:
http://www.boygeniusreport.com/2009/10/28/rim-and-apple-top-u-s-smartphone-market-share/
According to comScore RIM has 15 million and Apple has 9 million in the U.S. These are October 2009 numbers.
http://blackberryrocks.com/2009/12/15/rim-leading-u-s-smartphone-os-market-share-news/
It will be interesting to see what happens after the holidays and Apple's conference in mid-January. It's important to note that Apple is a clear leader based on functionality (not including AT&T's crappy network) and mindshare. Also worth noting: RIM has been selling smartphones since 2002, Apple has been selling them since mid-2007. 9 years versus 2.5 years and already Apple has half the users that RIM does.
RIM has been selling smart-phones since 2002, Apple has been selling them since mid-2007. 9 years versus 2.5 years and already Apple has half the users that RIM does.Like Social Media they'll figure that since they have a mobile phone, they get mobile marketing.
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I wont say that it would be bigger then Desktop but yes mobiles will be used more frequently for internet . like replying to email or chatting or messaging in the facebook or updating your status in twitter .. there will be more of uses than just it ,.. but it wont grow or even touch the number of desktop users ..
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I totally agree with that the Mobile Internet Market Will Be Twice The Size of Desktop Internet. More and more people are using the Mobile internet because they could not enough time in order to switch on and off the PC. Instead of that they are using the 3G service provided by the mobile operators.
These platforms may end up outshipping desktop pc's by 2 to 1, but only because the technology is cheaper and more accesible than before. This doesnt mean they will replace certain features of having a quicker processor and having a larger screen and keyboard.
Yes more people will have internet access via their mobile phones, but that doesn't mean they will use it for everything. Twitter, facebook, basic email? Yes it will probably be used more than a desktop.
Photo editing, web development, shopping for non 'fast moving consumer goods? i doubt they will take over the desktop market.
Imagine buying a range cooker on your mobile phone? Sending a Tweet? Easy. Researching a new car purchase on your iphone? doubt it. Emailing a picture of your baby to your parents? Definately.
We will see usage change and be distributed amongst the various ways to go online. It will settle down into 2 very different market places.
One more thing- it takes me 10 minutes to write a 500 word post on my wordpress website- that would be 30 minutes on my iPhone keypad!
Damn Google and Android. Apple again loses out to those that cater to the unwashed masses of the world by sheer volume. First the desktop to Microsoft and now the mobile internet to Google. Apple should build a search engine and steal some sh!t from Google.
Yes more people will have internet access via their mobile phones, but that doesn't mean they will use it for everything. Twitter, facebook, basic email? Yes it will probably be used more than a desktop.
Photo editing, web development, shopping for non 'fast moving consumer goods? i doubt they will take over the desktop market.
I thought it was interesting (I'm about halfway through the report) that the barriers to actually getting on the Web are lower now than ever before in history, and predicted to get even lower, since it's becoming a universal feature on any phone to have Web access. Car Leasing regards
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Where is my entry? I wanted to write about Morgan Stanley and my Windows Mobile!!!!
Very good report, not quite sure if you have your figures right there though, but for me my mobile (Iphone can do everything i needed my laptop to do, so for me a excellent space saving Security London
I totally agree with that the Mobile Internet Market Will Be Twice The Size of Desktop Internet. More and more people are using the Mobile internet because they could not enough time in order to switch on and off the PC. Instead of that they are using the 3G service provided by the mobile operators.
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I totally agree with that the Mobile Internet Market Will Be Twice The Size of Desktop Internet. More and more people are using the Mobile internet because they could not enough time in order to switch on and off the PC. Instead of that they are using the 3G service provided by the mobile operators.
I'd like to see a vibrant competition for the iPhone, but I don't see that coming from RIMM
I would love to see some competion, for the iphone, because it would help bring the price down, as i believe they are over priced
I thought it was interesting (I'm about halfway through the report) that the barriers to actually getting on the Web are lower now than ever before in history, and predicted to get even lower, since it's becoming a universal feature on any phone to have Web access. That's why relatively undeveloped countries are outpacing mobile Web usage in the United States.
The report starts out by saying that Apple's iPhone/iTouch/iTunes ecosystem "may prove to be the fastest ramping and most disruptive technology product / service launch the world has ever seen." It goes on to state that "a handful of incumbents (like Apple, Google, Amazon.com and Skype) appear especially well positioned for mobile changes."
yeah this is certified true and correct, how scary the desktop market will get dominated by the mobile. Uh oh, need to move on into mobile web marketing!
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These kind of post are always inspiring and I prefer to read quality content so I happy to find many good point here in the post, writing is simply great, thank you for the post
Very good report, not quite sure if you have your figures right there though, but for me my mobile (Iphone can do everything i needed my laptop to do, so for me a excellent space saving
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I thought it was interesting (I'm about halfway through the report) that the barriers to actually getting on the Web are lower now than ever before in history, and predicted to get even lower, since it's becoming a universal feature on any phone to have Web access.
Very good report, not quite sure if you have your figures right there though, but for me my mobile (Iphone can do everything i needed my laptop to do, so for me a excellent space saving facilities manager jobs
I thought it was interesting (I'm about halfway through the report) that the barriers to actually getting on the Web are lower now than ever before in history, and predicted to get even lower, since it's becoming a unive
getting on the Web are lower now than ever before in history, and predicted to get even lower, since it's becoming a universal feature on any
I've read a few comment where people seem to feel almost sorry for apple (damn microsoft and google etc!-comment 12), why do people insist on believing that apple is some bullied business, the good guy of the gang, the independents choice? "I want to be different so i'm going with apple" (along with how many other million "different" people?)
I am glad to find your impressive way of writing the post. Now it become easy for me to understand and implement the concept.
Very good report, not quite sure if you have your figures right there though, but for me my mobile (Iphone can do everything i needed my laptop to do
Very good report, not quite sure if you have your figures right there though, but for me my mobile (Iphone can do everything i needed my laptop to do
Your statement that the iPhone is the leading smartphone is factually incorrect. Worldwide, Blackberry's outnumber iPhones 8 to 1 (some sources even say it is 10 to 1).
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