MySpace's Former Owner: Facebook Will Win - for Now
Brett Brewer, who co-founded InterMix Media - the company that developed MySpace - and turned a tidy profit when that company and MySpace were sold to NewsCorp for $580 million, says MySpace's ongoing battle for social network supremacy with Facebook won't last much longer. In his opinion, Facebook has already won - but it won't remain a winner for long.
In an interview with The Sydney Morning Herald, Brewer said:
"Clearly, the world eagerly embraced MySpace, but as the average person has adopted social networks, where they come to first is making connections with the people they already know."Facebook has done an excellent job of capitalising on that."
That shift is translating into user adoption - and traffic - that has Facebook quickly winnowing the once seemingly insurmountable MySpace lead. And that's not just Brewer's opinion. It's a position that is supported by metrics from Compete, Alexa, and assumptions from Quantcast.
It's interesting how quickly things change. It wasn't so long ago that we pointed to data that showed MySpace was "still kicking Facebook's ass in traffic." And now, those tables seem to have turned - and drastically so.
Facebook may have won this battle. But in Brewer's opinion, there is another competitor that will be looking to topple the leader in the not too distant future. Who does he think has the power and momentum to take the wind out of Facebook's sails within the next two years? He hypothesizes that a service that makes better use of the mobile platform - a technology that continues to edge ever closer to ubiquity - will usurp Facebook.
But for now, Facebook is heir apparent. And It will be interesting to see where they go from here - especially given the current economic environment. They're adding "new" functionality and becoming more open, but will it be enough to stay at the top of the heap? That remains to be seen.
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Hmmm...to me this post describes a game of chicken to see you can stay closed the longest and maintain their walled garden. I almost can read "Loser opens up their silo." between the lines.
Worrisome. Not the kind of game I had hoped to see these two play.
Hmmm... For that matter remaining winner for a long time never happens with any idea and the same would apply for facebook.
The only problem with mobile social networking is that you are actually social while being mobile. The basic explosive outburst of social networking is driven by the need to keep in touch - a need which has its highest driving force when not being social.
With this I mean that you are not eager to make new friends online whilst making friends IRL and hence the full viral potential is somewhat taken away.
I believe that mobile social networking will spread and then fade away.
Lifestreaming in the mobile (read: microblogs, friendfeeds etc.) on the other hand will explode as you will want to keep updated on what you're friends online are doing whilst you're offline.
//Jesper
Agree with Jesper on the Mobile being more focused on life stream /micro blogging. There will always be a need for standard social networks for keeping in touch / discovery of new friends / ideas.
I do however, think mobile will take much more prominence when Location Based applications become widely available. Things like, your in Los Angeles tonight theres such and such event near you. Or even something more knowledge relevant, on this street in 1806 so and so discovered uranium. -maybe not that detailed but along those lines.
thanks.
"Clearly, the world eagerly embraced MySpace"
I guess South-East Asia isn't part of 'that' world. ;)
Migration here is from the #1 network "Friendster" to soon-to-be #1 "Facebook".
Second most popular and used is Multiply. Take note, there's a difference with being actively used by customers/the people to having the most subscribers (who mostly are multi-accounts or 'just signing-up so my friend will stop sending me invites').
^_^
I'm eager to see what MySpace have in their toolbox to catch up with FB. Give credit to MySpace for bring web2.0 on the forefront. The Myspace kids have grown up and moved to the FB world. I can't remember the exact figures but the demographics on FB seems to catch up with the 30-50s.
And we still don't know if FB is making money amidst all this traffic. They might just get 'stumble'd upon'.
It seems to be a tough time for someone (like me) just starting in social networking. To spend all the time and effort to get establised in one and then the shift turns to something new. Would be nice if you could just import/export your profile and connections to the the latest fad site.
"The only problem with mobile social networking is that you are actually social while being mobile. The basic explosive outburst of social networking is driven by the need to keep in touch - a need which has its highest driving force when not being social.
"With this I mean that you are not eager to make new friends online whilst making friends IRL and hence the full viral potential is somewhat taken away."
To Jesper,
I don't know about you but in my circles mobility is only accompanied by making new friends and 'being social' (as in discussing something other than work concerns or day-to-day drudgery) a small minority of the time. i.e. do you know what is the Stargate code of your universe so I can dial in? 8)
Paul.
How about local social media trends? Is Hyves.nl facing trouble on their dutch position for example yet?
SITELERI
there is no for-ever number !.
Thanks so much for this! This is exactly what I was looking for.
anyway facebook has done a good job.