I've been hearing whispers that Google will integrate their social network Orkut with the mobile social networking app they acquired last year, Dodgeball. While it's not rocket science to make the connection between the two products (both are social networking), the reasons to join the two are becoming more compelling... Here are some of them:
1) Social networking has been the biggest thing going in 2006 (MySpace, Facebook, Bebo, etc). And it looks like mobile will be big next year. So SNS + Mobile seems the logical sequel.
2) There is also the trend of meta-social networks, like Marc Canter's PeopleAggregator. It was actually the latest New Scientist magazine which rang a little bell in my mind about this. An article called Living Online: This is your space (full article not online yet unfortunately) concluded by saying that an individual's identity will be managed by a meta-network, which we will carry with us "in small wireless devices so that our virtual identities become seamlessly integrated with the real world." That online/offline balance is one of the main things mobile Web has going for it. So meta-SNS + Mobile is another trend I think we'll see emerge...
3) Peter Dawson pointed me to Mihai Parparita's blog, who has a great post entitled Facebook meets Dodgeball. In it Mihai writes:
"...I thought it would be cool to syndicate my Dodgeball check-ins into my Facebook profile, via their blog (i.e. RSS feed) to notes import feature. It worked pretty well [...] and it's sort of neat that these two social networking sites are open even slightly, allowing such co-mingling of data."
So co-mingling of SNS data, to borrow Mihai's neat phrase, is another trend that is hotting up.
4) Demographics are similar between Orkut and Dodgeball. All evidence points to Dodgeball being used mostly by young people. In Brazil, home to 65-70% of the Orkut user base, it is mostly 13-30 year olds who use Orkut. And in my recent Top Web Apps in Brazil post, it was established that Brazil is a sophisticated Web market (at least in the main cities).
In terms of mobile usage, Brazil is nearly at 100 Million users according to a recent report:
"The number of Brazilians owning mobile phones rose to 94.9 million in August, up 2% from July, according to preliminary figures released Monday by telecommunications regulator Anatel. Brazilian mobile phone ownership rose more than 20% when compared with September of 2005, when the number of mobile phones was 78.9 million."
While obviously Orkut + Dodgeball is not all about Brazil, it's probably a good pointer to how complementary the two services are. However I imagine Google will target the US market first, as they always do.
While there's no firm evidence yet that Orkut will merge with Dodgeball, I believe it's just a matter of time. John Battelle even kind of predicted it back in May 2005, with this comment: "What is Dodgeball? I dunno, but is seems like Orkut + Mobile done right, I think."
In any case, the high level trends point to it happening soon: SNS + Mobile; meta-SNS + Mobile; Co-mingling of data between SNS; similar demographics.
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Richard,
This is interesting and certainly does make sense, as it makes a stronger social networking play. Perhaps then, the numbers that we saw in our post on social networking for Orkut were not off (there are several other data points that colloborated well, see comments).
Alex
Posted by: Alex Iskold | October 2, 2006 7:11 AM
I am not that impressed by Dodgeball to date - does anyone know people that actually use it? The core social value proposition just doesnt make any sense (SMS all your contacts to tell them you are in the bar round the corner).
The role of mobile in social networking is going to be as a content uploader and a commmunications extender (IM, messaging, friend adding, alerts). There is a role for location-based services/ presence here but i dont think Dodgeball is anywhere near having this right yet. Or am i missing something?
Posted by: jamescoops | October 2, 2006 9:17 AM
Perhaps the strongest case for merging the two is that as US legislators move to make social networks (and therefore much of the web, as Steve Yelvington has pointed out) inaccessible from schools and libraries, kids in the world's biggest and richest digital market are going to move to the social network(s) that they can actually use conveniently during the day and that means the one(s) with the best mobile pedigree.
Posted by: Seamus McCauley | October 2, 2006 9:26 AM
Don't get excited about anything Googe does in the social area. Orkut is clumsy, and Dodgeball has been stagnant. A merge of the two probably won't be much to talk about.
Posted by: Hashim | October 2, 2006 9:33 AM
jamescoops / Hashim,
I absolutely agree - they just need to be so much better to get traction in this crowded space.
Alex
Posted by: Alex Iskold | October 2, 2006 11:22 AM
Richard,
Great Post.
I'm frequent user of Dodgeball and know plenty of folks that use it. But at the same time, I agree with others here that a Dodgeball and Orkut integration - while great in theory - is rather weak due to the respective weakness of the product themselves.
I believe strongly that a Dodgeball-Orkut type service would be a great way to go, especially when you see phones like Nokia's GPS enabled N95 coming out. I see this happening maybe in 2007 or 2008.
However, unless Google plans substantial upgrades to Dodgeball and Orkut (which I assume they will), I cant see how two okay products will be any better integrated.
Posted by: Daniel R | October 3, 2006 1:31 AM
While the merger may make sense for Google, I just don't think it will make me use either service or the combined service. I don't know anyone who uses either service, and I am not in Brazil. While I like people from Brazil, I live in the United States and prefer an open network rather than one that an invitation-based throwback that may try to capture people's desire to join because it is 'exclusive' or 'closed.'
I want to meet people that I don't already know, not just invite my friends onto a new network.
Posted by: Counsel | October 3, 2006 7:04 AM
Orkut + Dodgeball = The AOL of Web 2.0
Posted by: Thomas | October 3, 2006 7:46 AM
Here's dodgeball dens + orkut's orkut first meetup:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dpstyles/244132770/
Posted by: lia | October 3, 2006 10:46 PM
I think the merger would be good for both Orkut as well as Dodgeball. Both are gaining steady popularity and the merger would enhance their popularity further.
Posted by: Ryan | October 6, 2006 6:54 AM
Orkus is 90+ percent Brazilian. I should know... I've been on it from (almost) the start.
Dodgeball is only in the US.
So why talk of a merger?! Surely that would only happen if the Brazilian demographic was clearly mobile-hungry.
Wanna talk about a challenge for Google... how about getting Orkut to be something more than Brazil's #1 social network...
Fact is that SO much of it is now in Portuguese that it's a MAJOR turn-off for everyone else. I'm very rarely there now, as a consequence.
- A
Posted by: Alister Cameron | October 8, 2006 9:13 PM
Actually , i need some comments , My company is planning to launch an Orkut type of SNS in mobile , will it be successful , And i need some information whether in which country it is better to launch -USA or Brazil. My company have a head Quater in Bangalore , India , my E-mail ID is- vivek@einstix.com
Posted by: vivek | October 24, 2006 2:09 AM