Outlook for Printed Newspapers: Bleak
According to Editor & Publisher, daily circulation for the 395 newspapers that reported data to the Audit Bureau of Circulations (ABC) this month fell 7% in the last six months to about 34 million. Sunday circulation, which is traditionally a lot higher than daily circulation, also fell 5.3% to about 42 million. Of the top 25 newspapers, only the Wall Street Journal, which still hides most of its online content behind a paywall, saw a small increase in its numbers (0.6%), while almost half of the top 25 papers saw double-digit declines, with the Atlanta Journal Constitution losing almost 20% of its daily circulation.
Some papers, however, were able to gain readers as well. Most of these were smaller papers like the Memphis Commercial Appeal, which gained almost 31%, or the Wisconsin State Journal, which distributes less than 100,000 daily copies, but saw its daily circulation grow 10%. At least for the Commerical Appeal, 
however, these numbers actually mask a 14% decline in paid circulation, as most of its gains came from electronic editions used for Newspaper in Education programs.
Even though we mostly consume our news on the web, a lot of us here at RWW still love the printed paper, but given these numbers, it is hard not to think that the printed paper as we know it today will soon be a thing of the past.
Image used courtesy of Flickr user Matt Callow.
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I don't understand why more newspapers aren't working diligently on their online image. Some online newspapers are very good while some just don't get it.
To survive they need to create a better online image and at the same time work at creating an electronic version for the Kindle and other readers. Don't wait til it's too late.
I'd be interested to know how much of this decline is due to the poor economy instead of readers abandoning hard copy news. A 7% drop in sales sounds bad, but compared to the restaurant industry for example--down more than 4% in 1st quarter 2009--it isn't out of the ordinary.
The question is will those readers come back when the economy improves.
We had a great talk at BarCamp Orlando 3 on what kind of journalism would you pay to support. The discussion was hosted by Etan Horowitz who is a tech writer for the Orlando Sentinel. I thought some great ideas were discussed. Read his blog for more information. I think more communities need to have these types of discussions.
http://etanhorowitz.com/2009/04/20/barcamporlando-what-kind-of-journalism-would-you-pay-to-support/
I have to agree with Dan, I don't get why more newspapers are not working to fix the imbalance with high quality digital versions.
But if you want a paper to read? I can't afford to subscribe to the papers I love, I bought them as one-off treats, which I can't do now I live in the countryside (too obscure for small rural newsagents to stock). Selling to poor people often involves selling in small quantities, e.g. smaller bottles of toiletries. But is it true a paper makes no profit? (that is, distribution etc. means printed papers cost as much to produce as the profit on them) That's been said for years in the UK, but the BBC and guardian are one of the few organisations with their own reporters, not just shopping at AP, AFP and Reuters. I think the main problem is people are politically ignorant or uninterested, and don't see the vital role of the fith column in a democracy. Perhaps the future is activists - anarchists, sea shepherd, the sem terra guys etc. uncovering stuff instead of newspapers.
I honestly think that the newspaper has its charm. I myself enjoy reading the paper in the morning, drinking my coffee.
However, I'm not sure the newspaper is gonna last, specially on out constant change of generation.
This story reminded me of the potential value of leading indicators along with lagging indicators. Like intent to *ever* subscribe to a printed newspaper at home or at work at any price (or no price at all). How useful might that have been to the publishing world a few years ago? Telecom, TV, and music industry operators might also find similar metrics for their legacy/core markets useful to track. You can then look at the rates of change of the two to determine whether trends are accelerating, slowing, etc.