This week's poll is a tough one, because we're asking you to predict the future. But we hope you're game enough to vote, because it'll give us some clues on what to write about in Web Future Week ;-)
We're asking: Which Web technology do you think will have the most impact over the next 10 years? In some ways it's a follow-on to a poll we ran at the end of 2006, asking about 2007 Web Trends. But this one is a longer view.
It is of course very difficult to predict what will happen in 10 years time, given how fast technology moves. Who would've predicted in 1997 that a search engine company would rule the Web tech world in 2007. Probably not many people, given that Google wasn't formed until September 1998. It's possible that the dominant web technology of 2017 doesn't even exist yet, or is a twinkle in a Stanford Uni student's eye (or maybe a Shanghai Uni student).
So here is our poll, please vote your best guess:
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I voted Web Services/APIs but I think it is dependent on the semantic web (small s.)
Posted by: Paul M. Watson | September 3, 2007 2:36 AMIn my opinion Artificial Intelligence combined with Online Video / Internet TV will take the 1'st position but how you sayed: is very difficult to predict what will happen in 10 years time.
But w'll live and w'll see it.
Posted by: songteksten32 | September 3, 2007 2:40 AMIdentity Infrastructure- but I am biased because I have envisioned a specific identity infrastructure (details available at replacegoogle.com).
The Private Identity Network (PIN) is a layer of abstraction surrounding the existing Internet. Those who choose to use the PIN will enjoy the benefits of having their real identity, pseudonymity, or secure anonymity provisioned for them across the Internet.
The PIN can be started by a single entity offering identity provision and data filtering free of charge to its users. The structure allows it to grow to include unlimited cooperating entities that compete for users based on their trustworthiness.
The Private Identity Network is the opposite of "Big Brother" as users control every aspect of their identity and data and choose to participate voluntarily each time they log on. It uses market forces rather than coercion to incentivize all parties toward maximum privacy and security.
If this interests you at all please visit replacegoogle.com and let me know what you think.
Posted by: Trey Tomeny | September 3, 2007 3:25 AMIt strikes me, from the poll options, that you view the web as still be, in 10 years from now, something that you will access through a 21 inch screen. The web's biggest impact is when your online activity will be mixed with your presence, travels, objects you buy or act with. Last.fm is an early taste of this, as it gets data from what you listen in your real life. But that's still going through a computer. Hurk, will say my children in 2017.
Posted by: NatC | September 3, 2007 5:34 AMI think that several of these will have big impacts, a bit harder to say which one will be most. Internet TV to change what we currently consider normal for tv access, and advances in AI to make a big impact. But I've voted for 'other' in order to add voice recognition / interaction software - so that interaction with the web will become a lot more enabled via voice commands etc versus relying on keyboard input. This also to be two way voice interaction.
Posted by: Robert | September 3, 2007 5:39 AMI voted web-services and API's. With the current explosion of the software-as-a-service model, there's no reason why this shouldn't continue.
Posted by: Robert Dewey | September 3, 2007 6:53 AM"Personal Clouds"
Give the 'digestion phase' a little more time...Mac OSX, Ubuntu, etc are already proving that "mere mortals" can set up and a personal web server, file server, and more.
I don't think most users (of OS X at least) realize or see the purpose of this...yet.
Google and the rest love to talk about the cloud - meaning your content on their infrastructure. If you and your friends/buddies/net friends/ etc are hosting web apps/file servers, etc...you've got your own "personal cloud" too.
As more users understand, adopt, and use technology, I look for things once only in the enterprise moving into the hands of the end user
Posted by: Spinchange | September 3, 2007 8:54 AMSpeed - I don't think it is so much what will be new, we'll just be able to get it significantly faster.
Posted by: Larry | September 3, 2007 10:06 AMI voted for "search", but I am hoping it will be more in the AI realm that influences the near-term future. More machine learning than AI, but I hope that is the direction things go.
Posted by: Eric | September 3, 2007 10:16 AMI voted for "Virtual Worlds," but I think the real answer will be a "mashup" of several of the web technologies. As an educator, I think being able to access web-based applications and search functions from within a virtual world will have a huge impact on education.
Posted by: Elizabeth Clark | September 3, 2007 12:19 PMOpenID and surrounding services
Posted by: melvster | September 3, 2007 2:45 PMI believe that web 3.0 would have to be the next super technology for the future building on the successes of web 1.0, web 2 and web 2.0.
Web 3.0 will fully incorporate the AJAX.NET XML standard through software as a service (which will shortly also be able to make toast)
Posted by: John Deverall | September 3, 2007 5:35 PMMobile - Google's iPhone whatever - hardware, OS, who knows - will open up US mobile services finally.
Posted by: Don Jones | September 3, 2007 6:20 PMHi Richard,
Would be great if you allowed multiple choices. I'd have selected "Semantic Web / structured data" and "Artificial Intelligence"
I'd vote for "Artificial Intelligence" though. It solves basic the problem of knowledge representation, similar to the other choice, but in a better way.
Posted by: Ebrahim | September 3, 2007 6:54 PMSome combination of Personalization and Collaboration will have the most impact over the next 10 years.
Right now, so much of the web--from Google search results to Joe's myspace page--are the same for everybody. (boo!)
Personalization (which also can also include privacy) will mean my search results are different from yours, and I see something different on Joe's social network page than you do.
Collaboration will be one of the strongest tools to combat the incessant blather from SEOs, advertisers, and ... boredom.
Going 1 or two degrees beyond My friends, connections, or people I respect, it should be pretty easy to find interesting, relevant information and entertainment. And built right, it could be hard to game.
Posted by: Israel LHeureux | September 3, 2007 7:25 PMi vote for rich internet apps. internet has become one of the most useful things nowadays. doing more with rich internet apps should be a way of the future.
Posted by: TechMalaya | September 4, 2007 3:18 AMI think Spinchange hits on something - once people can reliably access their home server from anywhere with ease (which requires services to map dynamic and static IP addresses) then we'll see a huge growth in self-served rather than hosted networks. Family and friend based VPNs . . . and that will, in turn, become a nightmare for the media industry. Most of the traffic will suddenly be 'dark' to them, in a way that even most current p2p isn't.
The key, as Spinchange suggests - is making it EASY for consumers to do what is already possible.
My other prediction : The introduction of Silverlight's DLR and Mozilla's IronMonkey equivalent will introduce better programming languages into the browser - why use JavaScript if you can choose from Python or Ruby. Combine that with something like Google Gears being a standard in all browsers, and web development should get a whole lot more productive.
Posted by: JulesLt | September 4, 2007 6:13 AMI voted web services / API's. I think sophisticated web operating systems will prevail, in particular webOS's with integrated community services and apps. A good example of an early adopter would be www.zimdesk.com.
Posted by: Chris Westcott | September 13, 2007 4:26 AMwhat i feel might not fall into the about fields. I think the most use of web in the future will be the weblog, the communication of experts in the specific field, like here, this will generate a lot of ideas, possibly business opportunities.
Posted by: Norman | September 16, 2007 8:21 AM