While Google has not confirmed this new search engine just yet, the company's search products chief Marissa Mayer hints that there may have been something like this in the works at Google for some time now: "...we are interested in being able to offer, for example, micro-blogging and micro-messaging in our search. Particularly in Blog Search and possibly in Web Search, but we don't have any particular plans to announce". The Google Operating System blog points to this description used in Google's localization service as further evidence that there is something going on. It is allegedly a phrase that Google wants translated to be multilingual:

"Recent updates about QUERY. This is the MicroBlogsearch Universal result group header text. A Microblog is a blog with very short entries. Twitter is the popular service associated with this format."

This is not proof-positive that Google is developing a microblogging search engine, but it makes sense that they would. Twitter and other microblogging platforms are rich with information could be used to rank messages. Reportedly the search results will appear based on frequently used keywords or current events, but a whole bunch of other factors could play a role in providing relevant results. The number of followers a person has, the author's authority in Twitter's social graph, replies, re-tweets, posting frequency and other stats could be used. We hope Google is paying attention to current microblogging trends and will include those results in any microblogging search engine it may or may not be working on.

Notes

Why 2.5? Because we are in transition. The old is still with us, and the new is emerging but has not yet arrived. This was also true when "Web 2.0" was coined: only later did orthodoxy emerge.

2.5 is named "Get real" because we all have to do that. The punch bowl was taken away.

3.0 is named "Main Street" because the web is maturing... for everybody.

Social Media: Closed social-network sites cannot survive in their current form, and yet they are so dominant today. So the transition to open and pervasive will be a big and messy fight... which will be great fun for journalists to cover!

Advertising: Advertisers will adopt a barbell approach: CPM for branding, and CPA for direct-revenue generation (as soon as publishers figure out how to make money selling CPA). CPC will still be dominated by Google but will become less dominant as CPA gains traction. Google will play in CPA and CPM but won't dominate as it does in CPC. Publishers will sideline CPA because nobody will be able to compete with the CPC price set by Google. Ventures that bridge the gap between publishers wanting to sell CPM and advertisers wanting to buy CPA will do well.

Revenue: Primary revenue will come from subscriptions and transactions, with advertising as one driver of those revenue lines. Today, we are in transition and in recession, so any revenue is good.

Content: UGC reduced the cost of content but created too much junk. Curation (adding human editors to automated UGC content) will be aided by semantic technologies that aim to do what humans currently do well.

Start-Up Hero: Today, it's "Nobody" because we are all in a hangover funk. In the near future, entrepreneurs really will hold the best cards; financiers will be secondary.

Funding: The "Big VC" model is broken but will carry on for ages ("Zombie VC"). Angels and small VCs are in the cat-and-bird seat today. But they need a revived public market or something other, which we'll call "private + transparent."

Prime Market: This is a century-long shift, like the one from Europe to America. Asia is not ready yet, America is in turmoil, and Europe is conservative, so this is another transitional phase.

After asking some of the Web's brightest minds to predict the future of social media, Peter Kim compiled Social Media Predictions 2009 [PDF]. One of the predictions is by Chris Brogan who believes that 2009 will bring an end to the fight over a single sign in system.

Moving beyond OpenID, we'll have a sliced profile for social networks that will carry both our full profile plus the ability to break out specific segments for specific sites. I might not share my passion for beer on my church network, and I might not want to bring religion to my business social network.

There will be some kind of "one ring" profile that will allow data pass through to the various places that use it. The reason this hasn't happened is that each company wants to own the database on the back end. Someone's going to win in 2009.

Ionut Alex. Chitu talks Google in 2009

From the blog that watches Google's attempts to move your OS online, Alex Chitu offers 16 predictions for Google in 2009. Here are our favorite three:

• Google's search engine will lose a significant amount of market share as Live Search's position will consolidate.
• OneGoogle - a new interface that merges all Google applications so you can quickly switch between Gmail, Google Calendar, Google Docs without opening a new tab or losing your work.
• GrandCentral will be publicly available in the US and the interface will integrate with Gmail.

Dave Kellog Advises Corporate Bloggers to Get Real

Dave Kellogg, CEO of Mark Logic, suggests that many corporations have latched onto the blogging phenomenon as a means to regurgitate their standard corporate messages. Blogging this way doesn't work and if you're considering doing it - don't. As a CEO who has been blogging for over three years, Dave's words are well worth noting. His blogging style is also well worth emulating.

Dave's recommendations:

• If you're going to make a corporate blog, go real or go home.
• There is no point in ghost-written or PR-written blogs.
• In my view, corporate blogs shouldn't exist. If you want a corporate blog, go find a few corporate bloggers instead.
• Encourage those bloggers to write openly and honestly about your industry.
• Let them ramble off-topic once in a while. You might discover something.

Om Malik: Tip'd Could Be a Daily Destination

Cautiously optimistic, Om sees great potential in the online community Tip'd, the site that brings together the best news on the Web relating to all things finance.

From Om's post:

I find 3-5 headlines that grab my attention each day, of which maybe two are worth reading. Rarely do I find an article I would archive, as truly quality content is sparse. But this is a new service (it had 100,000 visitors in November, according to Compete), so I'm willing to be patient.

If it can get itself embedded into the financial blog ecosystem the way Digg has plugged in the tech world, Tip'd could become a daily destination.

Matt Mullenweg wants Blog Posts to Become More Interactive

Talking with Robert Scoble about Twitter and FriendFeed, Matt talks about the addictiveness of instant gratification, and how he's looking forward to real time RSS and more interactive blog posts.

This is a partial transcript of the interview (at approx 03.33):

What I love about those two platforms is the instant gratification. You get that instant hit where people are replying to you right then, or you can drive a couple of hundred people to a link within 30 seconds. I think what they've done beautifully is the coupling of the writing and the reading.

RSS is fantastic but it's a pull in technology. It's not real time. And so for years people have been talking about making RSS real time. I think that I'd like to get to a point where Twitter and FriendFeed are mechanisms for this, where blog posts become a lot more interactive. Like when you do a blog post, there is no reason that as many people that see your Twitter within the first five minutes shouldn't see your blog post in the first five minutes. But how it works now, is I go to my Google Reader twice a day and I see your new post - you don't get that hit that we're all becoming addicted to.

The complete video can be found here.

Duncan Riley: The Year of the Uber Blog and New Media

Duncan predicts that Uber blogs, blogs that combines different content streams into one large blog with one primary top level URL, will explode in 2009.

In 2009 big will be better. Not big networks of many sites, but big blogs that break out of the narrow niche focus that has been typical of commercial blogging until now, and instead go wide in content but focused on one brand and one URL.

The rise of the uber blog will also mark the beginning of the time new media starts to surpass old media.

Pew Internet and American Life Project: The Future of the Internet 2020

Rather than making predictions for 2009, the Pew Internet and American Life Project canvassed Internet specialists for their take on what we can expect in the year 2020.

Some of the predictions: The mobile phone will be the primary tool for connecting to the Internet; Voice recognition and touch technology will become more common, and Internet architecture will improve not by starting over, but by next-generation engineering of the network.

For big Internet companies, 2009 is going to be a very bad year for sure. Advertising profits are going to plunge, and consumers will spend less money overall, particularly on the web. There is little that can be done to change that. But what big companies can do is invest in innovation and killer moves that will bear fruit in the years to follow. Here is what we think would be cool for various big web companies to do in 2009.

Despite the downturn, Google remains a lean, mean revenue-generating machine. The search king has a strong hold on this area of the web, and as soon as things get better, its revenues will go up as well. So it makes sense to invest in its next strongest assets: video and its new adventure, the web browser.

1. Integrate Web-Wide Video Search in YouTube

We recently wrote here about YouTube and its rising popularity among kids. In a couple of years, a lot of web content is going to evolve from text to video, making YouTube a much bigger asset for Google. Even today, YouTube is already the second-largest search engine on the web.

However, it is a portal featuring only user-generated content. Google should seamlessly plug its video search into YouTube and bring videos from around the web to the surface using this same user-friendly interface. This would make YouTube the destination for people searching for any video content on the web.

2. Make Firefox Extensions Compatible with Chrome

Google Chrome made a big spash when it was launched earlier this year. Surely Google's foray into the browser war is very deliberate. Chrome looks like an excellent modern browser and already has a solid base of followers. But the road to mass adoption is quite steep, even if Google promotes Chrome via its home page and makes bundling deals with computer manufacturers.

One of the things that can definitely help Chrome gain adoption is extension support. Most early adopters use Firefox these days and love the Mozilla extensions that allow them to make the browser their own. A killer move would be for Google to support Firefox extensions. This would save a whole lot of time for all developers and users and would show that Google respects the existing web eco-system.

Tips for Microsoft

Everyone knows that Google is the new Microsoft and that Microsoft is the new IBM. Ever since it lost the search war to Google, the Redmond giant has been playing an agonizing catch-up game. And it has yet to make a dent in Google's market. Perhaps its most successful recent move has been investing $250 million in Facebook, which was valued at $15 billion. But while it was a clever strategic play, there is no impressive technology here. And this is really what Microsoft needs to invest in: execution and innovation.

1. Execute Faster and Better

This problem nags large companies. Bureaucracy takes over for common sense and introduces rot. Endless meetings, hierarchies of approval, and "what if" scenarios turn any large company into a beast. Microsoft needs to fundamentally restructure its approach to delivering products: reduce the coupling between products, shrink timelines, throw away old rotten code. In short, Microsoft needs to be more like Google in order to compete with Google.

2. Innovate

Sure, Microsoft has a lot of things going on in research. But every time we hear of a new product announcement, it sounds like "Me too" envy. First, there is the rivalry with Google in search. Many people think that advertising is the killer app for the web. Sure, it is, at least today. But it does not mean that search is the only way to deliver it. Microsoft is stuck in a battle to build a better search engine, while the answer may be to deliver advertsing in a fundamentally different way.

Similarly, Amazon has made a big push into cloud computing. Microsoft followed a year later with yet another "Me too." Zune was another fiasco, an attempt to chase the beloved Apple product. The problem is that the age of "Me too" is over. The only way to own the future is to define it. Microsoft needs to truly embrace innovation in order to have a chance of coming back.

Tips for Amazon

Amazon has executed its web services play remarkably well. The company took its core infrastructure, which runs the biggest shopping store online, and turned it into a product. More importantly, Amazon's foray into web services marks the true beginning of the cloud computing era. But at the same time, strange things are happening with the store, such as advertising appearing on product pages. Amazon should continue to accelerate its web services strategy, but it also needs to go back to the store and clean up the way it looks.

1. Continue the Rapid Push into Web Services

The first-mover advantage sometimes works, and sometimes doesn't. Many first movers in the market are overtaken and ultimately defeated by the second comers who know how to improve on what has been done. But if the first move is brilliant (think Apple kind of brilliant), then it is becomes hard for others to keep up. Amazon has rapidly innovated in the web services market and has a very substantial lead.

Its delivery to date has been nearly perfect, and the company needs to continue to invest in its core stack. The more useful the blocks that are there, the less reason users will have to switch to something else. Cost and reliability are already there, so it boils down to adding a few more blocks and then re-focusing on customer support and enablement.

2. Simplify and Clean Up the Product Pages

Amazon pages, despite the recent cleanup, still feel so 1990s. There is just too much going on. First of all, the banner ads need to go. Sure, they make money, but it is insulting to see completely irrelevant truck ads when a user is looking at Freedman's latest book.

Secondly, the pages are difficult to read because of both the design and the amount of information on the pages. Most of the information is not needed and will not enhance transactions. Instead of geeky bar charts, give users a simple popularity indicator. People do not need to see 400 reviews; five should do. The lists promoted in the sidebar are distracting. And the list goes on; there is a lot of room for clean-up.

Tips for eBay

eBay has just not been an exciting company since the 1990s. It has not executed well, its site has not evolved, and it failed to make much of its acquisitions, such as Skype and StumbleUpon. What eBay needs to do is reinvent itself through relevant acquistions.

1. Buy Etsy

Etsy is a rapidly growing online marketplace for hand-made goods. With sustainability and green poised to be on people's minds for the next decade, hand-made is the new black. Etsy has got a stellar team behind it, a user-centric culture, and a knack for innovation. If Esty were to be unleashed on eBay's site, the user experience would likely be much more improved and fun.

2. Buy Craigslist

If one company other than Google has cracked the secret of simplicity on the web, it's Craigslist. It has discovered the most effective and simple way to do online classifieds, buy and sell things, find a job, and make a hire. Cloning the same simple service for many markets was genius, and Craigslist just nailed it. It is unclear whether they would be willing to sell, but if there is a transaction there, eBay's coolness level would shoot up high. And the revenue would likely follow, because Craigslist has been rather conservative when it comes to charging users.

Tips for Yahoo!

Yahoo! is in a really tough spot. It seems the only way out is through a focus on innovation (that is, if it really doesn't want to sell to Microsoft). First, Yahoo! needs to figure out what business it wants to be in, and then it needs to execute flawlessly in the direction it chooses.

1. Invest in Best Directions, Cut Out the Rest

Seems like a lot of internal projects were coming out of the brick house and then didn't go anywhere. The problem with incubating products, launching them, and then dropping the ball with user adoption and marketing is that it is not good for business. Take Yahoo! Shortcuts as an example: great idea, competitive space, well executed. Where is it now? Lanched in 2007, it works only on WordPress, hasn't really been promoted much, and is unlikely to go anywhere.

We see a similar pattern with acquistions. Too much time was lost getting the ball rolling with MyBlogLog and del.icio.us. The result? Momentum was lost, and so were users and opportunity. Yahoo! can't afford misses like these. Execution needs to be quick and flawless -- and relevant to the business. Yahoo! needs to assess its entire product line, pick the things to invest in, and then put both engineering and marketing dollars behind them.

2. Compete in Search

Not all is lost, especially when you are number two in the space. Sure the gap to get to number one is big, but you are only one spot away. Google attracts users with its simple user interface, speed, and relevancy. Yahoo! needs to fix the speed and relevancy of its search engine and then invest in a different user interface. I really think that the Search Monkey project is on to something. Out of all the recent innovations in the search space, this one stands out with its simple yet powerful approach.

And the recent idea to open up its search engine as a web service is great too. It just needs to be done better and faster in order to really undermine Google. Yahoo! should look to Seattle for the model of how to do this sort of thing quickly and elegantly. If Yahoo! can create a simple way for everyone to build vertical search applications, Google will surely take a hit and have to start playing catch-up.

Conclusion

2009 will surely be a tough year for everyone. Yet it is the year to revamp and invest in the future. How exactly the big web companies will execute really matters. What do you think they should be doing?

We'd like your help in predicting the following: Will iTunes change its pricing from $.99 a song or go to a subscription music site by the end of 2008?

• Microsoft's Zune Pass music-subscription service allows unlimited music downloads for $15/month
• Every song sold on Wal-Mart can be played an unlimited number of times on most portable devices
• Rumors have surfaced that Apple is considering a $129.99 a year subscription service for iTunes

• Facebook is the largest social network in the world with well over 100 million monthly active users
• Rival MySpace has recently launched MySpace Music, and is currently more profitable than Facebook
• Facebook is rumored to be partnering with either iLike, imeem, LaLa, or Rhapsody

]]> Discuss]]> http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/rww_predictions_facebook_music_coming_soon.php http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/rww_predictions_facebook_music_coming_soon.php Predictions Sun, 26 Oct 2008 19:14:22 -0800 Corvida In an effort to monetize YouTube, the video giant will start experimenting with full-length TV shows that include embedded ads. Upcoming video service Hulu offers similar content on its site and is giving Youtube stiff competition. Help us in predicting the following: with this new offering from YouTube, what will Hulu's traffic growth be for November 2008 according to Compete?

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]]> Fast Facts

• YouTube has brokered a deal with Viacom to run full-length episodes of television shows from CBS
• Hulu.com saw a 52.5% month over month increase in traffic in September 2008
• According to Reuters, YouTube boasts 330 million users and Hulu just 3.3 million users

]]> Discuss]]> http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/rww_predictions_youtubes_new_monetization_vs_hulu.php http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/rww_predictions_youtubes_new_monetization_vs_hulu.php Predictions Sun, 19 Oct 2008 18:35:46 -0800 Corvida Just last year, Microsoft snagged a $240 million stake in Facebook in a bidding war against Google. However nothing but speculation has resulted since that stake was won. This week we saw the first steps of integration of Microsoft Live Search on Facebook. Microsoft is promising to improve the user experience on Facebook with the addition of Live Search functionality and advertisements.

We'd like your help in predicting what the percentage of Microsoft's share of searches will be by December of 2008 following the integration of Live Search on Facebook. Will it increase or decrease and by how much? Click here to cast your prediction.

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]]> Fast Facts

• The arrangement was first announced in July and offers a revenue opportunity for both companies
• Microsoft owns a stake in Facebook and has an exclusive agreement with the site for banner ads
• Results vary on Facebook and Live.com because Facebook uses certain filters for their search results

Predicting Pandora's New Royalty Rate

In the past few weeks, Pandora was at the forefront of many headlines. The CEO of Pandora fought hard to win a small victory that would grant Internet radio stations more time to reach a new royalty rate agreement with the powers that be. The cut-off time is February 15, 2009, which is right around the corner. We'd like you to predict whether a new royalty rate agreement will be reached in time and what the new royalty rate will be.

Fast Facts

• Senate approved a bill that says Congress must honor any royalty rate agreement reached
• Webcasters and copyright holders have until February 15th to come up with a deal on their own
• Current royalty rates would cost Pandora $18 million of its estimated $25 million in revenue in 2008

]]> Discuss]]> http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/rww_predictions_double_facebook_microsoft_pandora.php http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/rww_predictions_double_facebook_microsoft_pandora.php Predictions Sun, 12 Oct 2008 18:23:00 -0800 Corvida Last week rumors were swirling that eBay was looking to sell StumbleUpon. eBay purchased StumbleUpon in early 2007 for a bargain price of $75 million.

We've still yet to have these rumors confirmed, but what if eBay were to actually sell StumbleUpon? Help us predict whether eBay will sell the service by the end of this year and if so, the price tag that it might fetch.

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]]> Fast Facts

• Reports claim that eBay is in touch with Deutsche Bank to find a buyer.
• eBay purchased StumbleUpon for $75 million 16 months ago.
• In July 2008, StumbleUpon had 1.3 million worldwide visitors, down from 4.4 million a year prior.

Stumble Upon Our Discussion

In addition to reading your predictions, we'd also like to know your thoughts on what this might mean for StumbleUpon community members. Here are some things to discuss in the comments section:

• Will StumbleUpon's growth continue to decrease if the rumors are true?
• If you're a StumbleUpon user, what are your thoughts on how the StumbleUpon community may be affected by a sell?
• If StumbleUpon doesn't sale, what do you think eBay will do with the service?

]]> Discuss]]> http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/rww_predictions_will_ebay_sell_stumbleupon.php http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/rww_predictions_will_ebay_sell_stumbleupon.php Predictions Sun, 28 Sep 2008 17:00:00 -0800 Corvida The tech and mobile industries are buzzing about the impending release of the first Google Android handset. We've been waiting since February to find out whether an official Android handset will see the light of day. But after numerous setbacks, a device that will carry Android is finally here. Better known as the HTC Dream or G1, the device is set to be available on the T-Mobile network as early as next week, priced at $199.

We'd like your help in predicting the following: Will T-mobile or AT&T adjust their entry price point (either up or down) for the HTC Dream and the iPhone respectively in 2008? Let us know by casting your vote at RWW Predictions.

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]]> Fast Facts

• The $199 price point for both phones is only available with a contract
• Android is the first complete, open, and free mobile platform.
• HTC targets 600000 Dream handset sales this year
• Analysts predict Apple will sell 13 million iPhone units in 2008
• Google Chrome browser is confirmed to come to Android

Check out a video of the Android OS just below and be sure to read up on our top 10 picks of Android apps we hope to use.

]]> Discuss]]> http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/rww_predictions_googles_android_vs_apples_iphone.php http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/rww_predictions_googles_android_vs_apples_iphone.php Predictions Sun, 21 Sep 2008 19:34:55 -0800 Corvida This week's prediction question focuses on the winner of TechCrunch50: Yammer. Yammer is a communications product that duplicates the functionality of Twitter, but with an enterprise twist. We certainly have our doubts about Yammer as an enterprise tool. However, we'd like your help in predicting the financial future of Yammer.

Will Yammer raise a round of funding in 2008 or 2009. If so, how much will they take? Head to the ReadWriteWeb Predictions site to cast your vote or try out our new Predictions widget at the end of this article.

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]]> Fast Facts and Things to Consider

• Mint.com won TC40 last year and went on to raise $17 million in VC funding.
• Yammer applies a Twitter messaging system to internal corporate communications.
• Yammer is currently being praised by employees of the following companies and start-ups: Xerox, GetSatisfaction, Slideshare, and SmugMug.

]]> Discuss]]> http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/rww_predictions_funding_for_yammer.php http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/rww_predictions_funding_for_yammer.php Predictions Sun, 14 Sep 2008 17:46:02 -0800 Corvida This week we're running a prediction challenge, on the topic of browsers. Google's new browser, Chrome (our coverage), is sure to take market share from the existing players. So we want you to help us predict: which of the following browsers will lose the most share (in percentage terms) between August 2008 and December 2008? Internet Explorer, Firefox, Safari, or a tie or other? You can cast your prediction by visiting RWW Predictions. It'll be interesting to see what the ReadWriteWeb community thinks will happen!

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]]> Fast Facts

• Chrome has taken 1-2% share of the global browser market since its launch (NetApp)
• IE has lost 4-5% share so far in 2008 (NetApp)
• Analysts are skeptical of Chrome's adoption by enterprises, given its unproven "beta" status
• IE had 72% share and Firefox had 20% share in August 2008
• Microsoft and Mozilla recently launched browsers (IE 8 & Firefox 3) with similar features as Chrome

Click through to RWW Predictions to login and cast your prediction.

Note: On Monday afternoon the RWW Live crew will be discussing Chrome's impact on the browser market with 2-3 special guests. Be sure to tune in at 3:30 pm PDT Monday.

]]> Discuss]]> http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/rww_predictions_browser_wars.php http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/rww_predictions_browser_wars.php Predictions Mon, 08 Sep 2008 01:41:27 -0800 Richard MacManus This week's prediction is about (what else) the iPhone. We're asking: How many total units of the iPhone will Apple sell in 2008?.

For background, Apple sold 2.3 million units in Q1 2008 and 1.7 million units in Q2 2008. Today Apple announced it's already sold 1 million 3G units. In 2007 Steve Jobs said he expected 10 million unit sales in 2008.

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]]> The new 3G is twice as fast, available all over the world, and (for some people anyway) half the price at $199. So Jobs' 2007 estimate may even be conservative. What do you think - how many iPhones will Apple sell in '08? Click here to make your prediction.

UPDATE: Apple today announced it sold its one millionth iPhone 3G on Sunday, only three days after its launch on Friday, July 11. Here is the rest of its announcement:

iPhone 3G is now available in 21 countries--Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK and the US--and will go on sale in France on July 17.

"iPhone 3G had a stunning opening weekend," said Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO. "It took 74 days to sell the first one million original iPhones, so the new iPhone 3G is clearly off to a great start around the world."

See also: Apple's App Store: 10 Million Downloads Later; and iPhone: The New Personal Computer

]]> Discuss]]> http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/rww_predictions_iphone_sales.php http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/rww_predictions_iphone_sales.php Predictions Mon, 14 Jul 2008 13:10:18 -0800 Richard MacManus This week we announced a new feature for our community: ReadWriteWeb Predictions, a Predictions Center that we hope will enable you to tap into the collective intelligence of RWW readers. The first prediction is about the battle for users and mind-share that has emerged this year between Twitter and FriendFeed. Here are the results, along with results for our two polls this week...

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]]> In RWW Predictions, we asked: How many monthly U.S. visitors will FriendFeed have for July 2008 according to Compete? As of writing, 400-599k is the most popular prediction. Here are the results so far:

You can make your own prediction here.

Poll: Best Internet Bigcos of 2008

We've reached the halfway point of 2008, so time for a half-year assessment of the Internet bigcos. This week we ran a poll asking for your picks for best bigcos so far in '08. We did a similar poll last July - and Facebook just edged out Google for the RWW popular vote. At the end of '07 we named Facebook our Bigco of the year. We also ran the poll in 2006. Here are the results this time round:

At time of publishing, Google had 19%, followed by Apple on 18% and Mozilla 17%. Also in double figures were Amazon and Adobe, both of which got 12%. Interestingly, Facebook fell to 8% and the other two parts of GYM, Microsoft and Yahoo, didn't fare so well either. Microsoft scored 6% and Yahoo 5%.

See also: Internet Bigcos - How The Market Sees Them and It's Official: There Is No Bubble

Google Docs Goes Down - How Long is Too Long for You? (POLL)

Earlier this week, Google's hosted office suite Google Docs was down for more than 30 minutes, rendering documents inaccessible and users frustrated. Short outages are not uncommon, but it was a good time to ask - how long is too long for you? At what point would you personally deem a web service too unstable to use, and presuming that varies from service to service, what's your requirement for Google Docs?

Image credit: hans s

]]> Discuss]]> http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/results_rww_predictions_friendfeed_bigcos_googledocs.php http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/results_rww_predictions_friendfeed_bigcos_googledocs.php Predictions Fri, 11 Jul 2008 16:43:04 -0800 Richard MacManus Yesterday, Google released Lively, a browser based virtual world somewhat reminiscent of The Palace from the mid-90s. A lot of people have been wondering why Google would be interested in entering this market, but according to Hitwise, it seems Google is looking at all the major categories its search engine is sending traffic to and then tries to develop a product for that category.

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]]> Hitwise has a very good track record in using its Clickstream data for predicting Google's next moves. In January, they predicted Google would enter the health, travel, or virtual world market. Since then, Google launched Google Health and Lively, though it doesn't have a major travel product besides Google Maps in its portfolio just yet.

Looking at the latest data, Hitwise predicts that Google would either enter the automotive or music market next. Both of these are very broad categories with a large range of competitors already operating in them, but then, that has never stopped Google from entering a new market.

Google Autos

Google could easily build a competitor to cars.com, Vehix, or Autotrader by tying together data from its Google Base product (which already has a 'Vehicles' category) and mashing it up into a more comprehensive used car market by also allowing users (or dealers) to easily put up their own cars for sale. As of now, Google is only aggregating data from all the major online car buying sites.

Google Music

Rumors about Google Music have flared up regularly over the last few years, but so far, no actual product has materialized. Entering the music business is obviously fraught with problems for any new player. Given the issues around licensing music, as well as its failure in selling videos on Google Videos, Google might not want to develop a mainstream music platform.

What Google could do, though, would be to offer a platform for independent musicians, somewhat akin to what MySpace was in its early days or what AmieStreet does today.

Google Travel

Given Google's background in search, we think Google might also be likely to develop a competitor to the large travel aggregator sites like Kayak or FareCompare. Not only is this a market where Google could develop a decent revenue stream outside of its core advertising market, but it would fit in right with Google's core expertise. As of now, Google only links to Kayak, Expedia, Hotwire and others when you enter the right query into its search engine, but it doesn't display any actual results itself yet.

Our Prediction: Travel is Next

If Google is indeed trying to fill out all of these major niches with a product of its own, we think a travel product is still Google's most likely next move. It is not only the closest to Google's core competency of search, but Google could also easily put ads on there as well.

]]> Discuss]]> http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/whats_next_for_google.php http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/whats_next_for_google.php Products Wed, 09 Jul 2008 10:32:45 -0800 Frederic Lardinois