Prepare Yourselves: Augmented Reality Hype on the Rise
Augmented reality -- or the addition of a layer to the world before your eyes (aka the "real world") using technology -- is the next big tech trend. Already making its debut in everything from mobile apps to kids toys, "AR" will clearly soon be talked about by everyone the way they used to talk about "social media" and "Web 2.0" before that.
While augmented reality has its uses -- although many of them just involve oohing and aahing at nifty apps -- this trend is already in danger of being over-hyped, even though it has barely gotten off the ground.
AR Apps We've Seen So Far
We've been fascinated by augmented reality for some time now, especially after we got wind of a new mobile application built for Google's Android platform called Layar. The app, an augmented reality browser, "layers" sets of data on top of your mobile phone's viewfinder as you point the camera at the city around you.
Once our interest was piqued, we began imagining what future apps could be built using this platform, thinking up everything from people search to place data.
Only days later, another mobile AR app made the news: TwittARound, an app which shows you nearby tweets. Designed for the newest iPhone hardware - the iPhone 3GS - it taps into the phone's GPS and compass to determine your physical location. It then floats the avatars of nearby Twitter users across the screen. You can click these icons to see those users' tweets.
Then there is AugmentedID, a facial recognition technology using algorithms, from Polar Rose, a startup that delivers photo-tagging tools for Flickr. With this application, you can hold your phone up to a person's face and see their online profile, contact info, social networking links, and any other information they've chosen to share.
At the moment, though, mobile applications such as these are being primarily designed for Google's Android platform, as its open nature allows developers to access the phone's hardware and the video feed. However, we're on the verge of seeing an explosion of AR apps thanks to the soon-to-launch update for the iPhone OS. The next version, due in September, is widely expected to provide an official means of accessing the necessary controls to make AR apps possible through a new Application Programming Interface (API). Already, apps like acrossair's "Nearest Tube," a train finder for the London underground, are poised to go live as soon as Apple is ready.
AR Discovered by Marketers. Let the Hype Begin!
Don't look now, but marketers have discovered augmented reality and have started to incorporate it into their advertising campaigns. This can only mean one thing: we're about to be inundated with pitches and products touting AR products...not to mention AR ads.
Perhaps we should have clued in to this coming deluge when we saw how Mattel was pitching their next-gen action figures for the comic book-inspired "Avatar" movie. (Hold the included 3D tag up to a webcam and the toys come to life on your computer screen!)
Now we're seeing big box electronics retailer Best Buy incorporate augmented reality into their printed ads. Their recent augmented Sunday circular featured a 3D image of a Toshiba notebook computer. (Hold the ad up to a webcam and the laptop comes to life!)
Only days later, we're getting emails from Kia Motors -- yes, the car manufacturer -- about the company's new "augmented reality Facebook application." Using the computer's webcam, the players of Kia's "Go Hamster Go!" game control the action using their facial expressions. (Is that really augmented reality, though, or is it just neat?)
There's also news about a company called Metaio, creators of a mobile AR platform that lets people leave and view notes and 3D animations in places using their phones. And since Metaio is known for working on marketing campaigns like the AR Lego packaging, there's little doubt that they could soon start including ads on the new platform.
Time to Dial Down the Hype?
We think marketers need to carefully consider whether AR will truly benefit their clients before blindly hopping on the AR bandwagon. Case in point: Best Buy said their AR ads exceeded expectations, with more than double the number of users than they had planned trying them out. But that number was only 6500 out of a Sunday ad circulation of 43 million. Out of those 6500, 12% actually clicked through to other Best Buy websites, a number the company touts as "fairly decent." Although the company plans to do more AR campaigns in future, they're also of a size to be able to engage their customers in a variety of ways on a number of platforms. Smaller companies may not have the luxury to do the same.
And we are not the only ones thinking that AR is about to hit its full hype potential. Gartner shows that in their latest report, "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2009," AR is steadily climbing towards the "Peak of Inflated Expectations."
The problem with over-hyping this technology prior to it really taking off is that it could become diluted and meaningless before we even have a chance to explore the potentially world-changing applications it could help create. (And no, we don't mean these AR exotic dancers.) But don't get us wrong: for a while (possibly a long while), we're going to be completely enamored of each and every AR-infused application that passes us by. However, there will come a time when AR, like every over-hyped buzzword that came before it, will be overused, its meaning skewed and stretched to encompass anything vaguely interactive, whether it's truly AR or not.
Let us instead heed the words of Robert Rice, CEO of Neogence Enterprises and Chairman of the AR Consortium, which he shared in a recent interview with Tish Shute:
"Don't be misguided by the gimmicky marketing applications now. Look ahead, and pay attention to what the visionaries are talking about right now... AR has long-term implications for smart cities, green tech, education, entertainment, and global industry. This is serious business, but it has to be done right."
Image credits: Best Buy ad, AdAge; Hype Cycle Chart, Gartner; AR on the mobile, Flickr user Mr.Whisper
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I don't see why hype will kill AR. Hype may have companies waste money on worthless marketing intiatives but that should not stop other companies taking advantage of this technology and making it work.
We are currently working with a pharmaceutical company who wants to use AR for presentation of one their products. The interest is partly driven by the news factore but equally as much because of the possiblities it offers. I hope the solution will become reality - intentional pun :-)
Clunky and pointless, AR makes for a nifty tech demo but falls short in bringing some added value to anything. Reminds me a lot of Microsoft's Surface, personally.
Robert Rice is right. The potential for this technology is mind boggling.
@crsh just because some of the executions you've encountered were clunky or pointless (in your opinion), doesn't mean that the technology driving it is. The Surface is a 10k piece of hardware. AR applications will work with computers and smartphones. The barriers to mass consumer adoption are significantly lower and this will allow more developers to get in the game. Subsequently better applications and advances will get come to market.
Think of the internet/email in 1994ish. That's where AR is today...
Here's an AR shopping application that my company launched recently http://weareorganizedchaos.com/index.php/2009/06/23/zugara-launches-online-shopping-app-utilizing-augmented-reality-and-motion-capture/
And next week we're coming out with a new application, so please keep an eye on that blog if you're interested in this stuff.
"Hype" is a red flag signalling a tension between media coverage and real substance of some phenomena, trend or innovation. Gartner cycle was never perfect to predict the real course of developments, Actually I do not think that we need the red flag in case of AR.
Totally agree with Rice identifying "long term implications".
Now everyone knows the actual examples, what I miss is a bit of analysis here. Forget the gimmicks and marketing. See the use cases.
Why is mobile AR a killer? In short: See Mobile AR less as an interface, but as a visualizer of the invisible, or a drill. Location sensitive AR is drilling into the information abundant space around us! And so the information is springing like an oil-well.
Other point of the perspective: There is realtime information accessable about a certain square meter around you. Call it rt-bits/m^2. And this amount of useful, locational content is growing every day!
Prediction: TwittARound and Layar will be the beginning of exploding mobAR services. They will bring you relevant info right into the situation of interest - (and you don't have to "search" for it in the sense of sending queries to any google or bing SE - this is the post-search web, yes).
"...as if the Milky Way entered upon some cosmic dance. Swiftly the brain becomes an enchanted loom where millions of flashing shuttles weave a dissolving pattern, always a meaningful pattern though never an abiding one; a shifting harmony of subpatterns." -Sir Charles Sherrington 1937
In the planetary neural network that is human life, hype is no different than a dream or an inspiration. Here today, gone tomorrow but while it's here, it lives as a little wish, from everyone that lends their attention, for a thing yet undone to be done.
Enjoy the hype. Have fun with it. But try not to waste any money. Novelty is the enemy of innovation. Look for utility when you buy an AR app and we'll all be fine.
I have yet to see any AR uses that don't seem gimmicky and feel actually useful. Even the shopping applications like the one linked above aren't really that useful. Pasting a picture of an item over my body might let me see how it could look on me, but it doesn't let me know how it will feel, or fit.
Wow, that is way cool dude!
RT
www.anon-web-tools.net.tc
The tech world runs on hype until someone makes it into a reality. 4G is the perfect example. When they came out with the term 4G there wasn't any such thing. Just some people recognizing what was possible and giving it a name...
Maybe someday when car machine, electric parts are broken and then I see that part through my phone camera, a diagrammed display will show up.. and then I can fix it easier. will it be possible?
If you want to try and make your own simple AR scenes,
try this free software for yourself:
http://www.hitlabnz.org/wiki/BuildAR
How about the Augmented Reality Hype Cycle?
http://www.sprxmobile.com/the-augmented-reality-hype-cycle/
It places all AR technologies that are out there in it logical place on the cycle scale.
It shows that webcam marker based AR is at its peek. Markerless AR (Layar, tweet around etc) are on the rise etc.
It's important to put AR in the context of how it functions in relation to other synthetically-oriented technology:
"Social Tesseractions assist in shaping contemporary notions related to Sociorelational information. Just as raw geophysical encounters evoke varying psychological and communicative responses [think: Communication Accommodation Theory], Tesseracting engenders similarly relevant synthetic loadings. In attempting to establish a conceptual structure surrounding Social Tesseractions, contemporary theorists display a pervasive tendency to shrink all synthetic interactions to a geophysical/biological endpoint. In order to establish whether Tesseraction can be considered a tangible phenomena, this assumed standard of endpoint interaction should shift from a reductionist angling towards more appropriate markers...."
Social Tesseraction is described in full at Augmentology 1[L]0[L]1 – a project that discusses ”...the formation and evolution of synthetic environments.”
this would make ARGs even more interesting. by adding another layer to reality ARG makers could leave clues in a whole new way.
what happens if/when AR takes off and our environment becomes crowded? obviously you could just turn it off completely, but what about when you want to filter? the groundwork for appropriate filtering needs to be laid now or we'll end up with a useless chaotic state.
Sarah:
Great post and comments, of great interest to me @jackmason and @ibmbizanalytics.
Our Smart Planet effort at IBM is focused on the digital physical convergence that AR epitomizes. My guess is that AR will suffer the hype cycle pangs but that it is scratching the right itch. Loved the comment about novelty being the enemy of innovation.
Meanwhile, I see IBMers increasingly valuing the great work that RWW is doing so keep it up!
And check out http://smarterplanet.tumblr.com when you get a chance.
Jack Mason, iBM Global Business Services, Strategic Programs & Social Media
Don't forget Wikitude http://www.wikitude.org/ a nice app for android (and soon for iphone) which gives you augmented reality infos via wikipedia and other services e.g. qype.de
I am using it since a view weeks and apart from real fun using it I'm provided helpful informations in many mayor cities in Germany
Excellent review of new technology and its application. I augment my reality all the time and most always it is positive and motivating, so the big worry for me is not the augmentation but what the negative folks out there are going to do with it. That raises bigger questions which technology applications often do such as using technolgy to promote unsustainable lifestyles. Your article is a good start and let's hope we can get a conversation going. Crummy response rates aren't the only reason to advocate more responsible advertising, I hope.
Augmented Reality reminds me of the days I would go to the arcade and pay $15 dollars for 15 minutes to wear a massive helmet, hold an even heavier toy gun and run around a multi-plane environment.
While the buzz term "virtual reality" has more or less fallen off the map, I'll wager augmented reality will become commonplace in the next couple years.
USPS might take the cake for an AR application that has high utility for its target customers, especially given the anticipated 10-15B decline in mail volume for FY2010, check it out:
https://www.prioritymail.com/simulator.asp
I can't wait until we all have to wear awesome glasses that project AR elements into the real world. I think Warren Ellis was really on to something with Transmetropolitan.
Either way, this technology is sort of a marketer's wet dream.
OK, some things are just better in the real world.
AR has great potential.
Yes, *of course* (and expected) is that AR is "discovered" by marketers -- because it is about monetizing the opportunity.
And note, the majority of these AR marketers are technologists, entrepreneurs, attempting to monetize their vision, know-how and technology; the application(s). Don't believe me? Just check out the founders and teams of the different AR application makers/companies...
Hype (from peak, to slope, to plateau) is part of the process and expected; nothing wrong with it...
...regardless of which company is left standing at the end, the technology and potential is here to stay - cheap, real-time, augmented reality for everyone!
CEO
This is webbased, anyone can use:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsWIVFzSM1c
The newest stuff I have seen in the UK edition of the Red Bull magazine which came in my newspaper today does not use marker at all - pretty cool: http://en.redbulletin.com/print2.0
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