Priming the Pump: New Users, Meet the Old Winners
Social media, it's all about the democratization of communication and empowering new voices - right? A few years into the new media revolution, reality is looking a little more complicated than that theory would suggest.
The wild garden of services growing from the read/write soil of the new web struggles each time a new app is launched and looks more like a ghost town than a place to enjoy the network effect of the crowd. How can new services ramp up social connections quickly? Recommending "friendship" with active early adopters is one strategy being explored by a number of sites. The end result can be a lopsided environment where a handful of winners dominate the collective mindshare - again.
Last month the Harvard Business Review called into question the "long tail" itself, the core principle of the new web that sees greater total energy in the collection of niche interests than in the "big head" of popularity. When it comes to new social news networks, though, some already popular people may be receiving enough new attention that they are liable to get "big heads" themselves.
Friend Feed
The red-hot activity aggregator FriendFeed is one of the latest suspects. FriendFeed lets you view and discuss the activities of your friends across all their various networks (YouTube, Last.fm, Twitter, Del.icio.us, etc.) whether you participate in those other networks or not. Built by two ex-Googlers, the service has stolen our hearts here at RWW and is where we spend a substantial portion of our days. (See Marshall, Sarah, Corvida, Frederic, Alex and the boss, Richard. Don't all friend us at once, though, see the aforementioned big head risk!)
Users are still figuring out how to use FriendFeed, but some of the most popular people there have been discussing how much faster the growth of their FF networks has been than it was on Twitter. We've seen that as well and attributed it primarily to two things: the friend recommendation feature (which is much improved by this script) and the friend-of-a-friend feature (also greatly improved by this script).
Allen Stern of Centernetworks has done some investigative reporting and found that new users are all being served up the same default "popular users" as recommended first friends. Though FriendFeed HQ has said in response to Allen's criticism that they intend to change their algorithm to incorporate more diversity - to date the default user set has changed very minimally.
Here's another of Allen's always charming videos, followed by a screenshot of today's default recommended friends for new FriendFeed users.
Why does this matter? Because we're not on that list. No, we kid. Because funneling audiences towards the same major players that dominate other sites (blogs, Techmeme, Digg, etc.) mitigates a lot of the potential for discovery of new information from diverse sources that could come from a platform like FriendFeed. The tech niche of social media is an elitist place, and occasionally anointing new people like Louis Gray as leaders isn't enough to change that. After playing that role for awhile, Gray (in addition to being a genuinely fantastic blogger) has become an outright mock-deity.
It's also questionable because most of these "most popular" members are making their living commercially through web traffic, and being named a FriendFeed default member has a direct impact on their incomes.
Why, on the other hand, is it not a big deal, too? Those top users also happen to be some of the most interesting and engaging people on the new web - they got to the top in large part because they add a lot of value to peoples' lives. That's not always the only reason they got there, but that's part of it. They were elected leaders, by the market, with all the complications that a statement like that includes.
The default settings are also not a big deal because FriendFeed still offers a lot of ways to discover new people, and because despite the defaults even the most popular FriendFeed users are only followed by a small percentage of the service's users.
Right: The most followed users on FriendFeed, from User21.com's FriendFeed Top 250 Most Followed Users
The Solution
What's the ideal solution to this problem? Attention data. Let me bring my historical interests with me into your application and recommend a variety of people, not just the most popular, who are roughly interested in the same kinds of things I am. FriendFeed, unfortunately, doesn't appear to be incorporating user attention data at all. Who is? Our favorite example is personalized music magazine IdioMag, though it's better in theory than it is in execution.
Seesmic
Once again, plucky power-blogger Allen Stern pounds the pavement to lead the charge on yet another timely story - video conversation platform Seesmic and a hint of default user love.
Seesmic CEO and (by the way) FriendFeed default recommended friend Loic LeMeur uses his company's own technology in a particularly human moment to articulate well the thinking behind the very temporary experiment with default users and the subsequent non-launch of the feature.
LeMeur responds genuinely as a long-time industry leader, and a man on whom venture capital is raining like it was April in Oregon, but Stern appears to begrudge him still for not speaking out about his default status at FriendFeed! It's clearly not in his interest to do so, though. More LeMeur friends anywhere equals more exposure and thus users for Seesmic. As a participant in the social media space - that's his job, to win high profile spots like being a default friend in one of the hottest early adopter networks on the web. He's a pretty interesting guy to watch, too.
Do FriendFeed users lose out in diversity of perspectives? They may.
Digg
Digg is the grandpappy of all the social news sites, though it's never really succeeded in becoming the long-tail social network it's aimed to become. Hitting the front page of Digg is really the one and only goal there. We've written here about the decline in importance of tech stories on Digg but as the mainstreaming of the site continues, the company has also moved into the recommendation space.
We wrote about the Digg recommendation engine before it was publicly available but once it was live the consequences looked remarkably similar to the situations discussed above.
According to a very interesting analysis by JD Rucker, in the days after Digg recommendations went live, this is how the numbers shook out.
"31.4% of the Digg front page was made up of stories submitted by 10 users. To extend it further, 50.4% was submitted by 28 users. Assuming that there are 3000 users who submit in any given day, that's less than 1% who control over 50% of the content."
In this case, it wasn't an explicit set of default users promoted by the company. All of the companies discussed in this post based their recommendations on an "algorithm" but Digg's was presumably the most mysterious and complex of them all.
Did it matter? Apparently to date it hasn't. Recommendation squashed the long tail at Digg, more even than at the FriendFeed.
Digg has made some minimal moves towards supporting APML, a proposed standard for communicating user preference data from one site to another and solving the "who are you?" problem. That's the problem that default users solve, if a website doesn't know who to introduce you to then it's logical to introduce you to the most popular people at the party. In real life, you might appreciate that.
Conclusion
On the new web - things are supposed to be different. Web 2.0 is supposed to blow the broadcast model right out of the water, fostering niche communities where everyone has a valued voice. In many cases that has happened. If you like Monster Trucks, manga or Mediterranean marinades then you don't have to follow Robert Scoble to find those things. But when it comes to tech, the innovative new social applications launching every day are struggling to create a sense of community quickly, because their unique value-added features often depend on it. Pointing at the most popular people around is one way to try to do that. That strategy has its upsides, too.
What's your take on this situation? (Other than wanting a drink after reading such a long post about one particular strategic question faced by startup tech companies?) Do you find yourself living in the long tail on places like FriendFeed, Twitter, Seesmic and Digg - oblivious to the soap operas of A-listers and enthralled by the authenticity of thriving niche communities? If so, tell us where those communities are. We'll all click through, en masse, and enjoy them. Just tell us who to follow once we get there.
Rocker kid photo CC by Ian Ransley on Flickr
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I have been writing recently about a new category of Web apps that I call "Interest Networks" instead of "Social Networks." Interest networks help people keep up with their interests whereas social networks help people keep up with their friends. There's an important difference: While my friends are part of my interests, I have many other kinds of interests such as my profession, products I care about, hobbies, beliefs, places, events, and various other topics of interest.
Following specific people is not the most effective way to track specific interests. I need a way to follow the *interests* themselves. That is the purpose of Twine.com (http://www.twine.com), the product that my company is building. Twine is for interest networking -- for keeping up interests, not just people.
Ultimately this is more democratic. In a service like Twine, everyone who shares an interest in topic x is equal. The topic is what matters, not the ego-rank of particular people. Some topics are more popular or active than others of course, and that is fine. But the key is that there is more diversity of information available. As a member of a twine about topic x, I get the best information from all kinds of people who care about that topic, not just the most popular people on the Web.
Have you looked at Seesmic traffic numbers lately? In the toilet:
http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details/seesmic.com
Like they are even in the ballpark with twitter, digg or even pewney Friendfeed.
The only reason anyone pays attention to them is that Loic is great at cultivating his cult of personality. Which is sophomoric in it's intellect at best, but is what drives valuation for his company, FriendFeed subscribers, etc.
He doesn't really have much to say, so I can only think the subscribers on FF are there to hang on his every move as someone who has sold a couple of blogging companies for maybe $15 million?
wow thanks Marshall!!
Posted by: Allen Stern
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July 10, 2008 6:49 PM
Thank you Marshall for your compliments.
"allen miller" if that is your real name I am quite transparent about what we do and the results we're getting or not so anybody can judge by themselves here:
http://wiki.seesmic.com/SeesmicHistory
It can be hard to break into a more-visible role for both established and new sites. Try as we might, an old brand can pull a lot of credibility from network to network. But there is something said for using a service and growing a friend base organically. I wouldn't have used the word "anointed" as you did, but I'm pleased with the level of interaction and new contacts I've made on FriendFeed, and expect with focus, anybody can do the same, there or any other service. Aside from the pre-loading, as you note, the only other catch is that many people believe the way to get ahead is to "friend all" and win through mass, and quality over quantity still means something. Besides... who cares if you have 250 or 2500 or 25000 followers, unless you can engage with them well?
louis - traffic
Posted by: Allen Stern
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July 10, 2008 9:32 PM
heh, what Allen said. Out in the world, a mention of Facebook friends # and it's always met with an OMG. :)
Posted by: Eric Rice
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July 10, 2008 10:25 PM
Marshall thanks for a thoughtful post. Although I think "A list" blogs are generally very good, I think ranking and commercial issues are keeping a *lot* of quality writing from surfacing. Huge search engine advantages are enjoyed by blogs with extensive incoming links.
Links can be a pretty good and democratic measure of what users want, but with so many A list blogs using very strategic linking, combined with so many "wannabe" blogs linking to existing A lists, combined with A listers rarely linking to even the best writing of others for competitive and commercial reasons, the system is probably no longer working well to bring new voices into the mix.
Solutions? Aggregators like FriendFeed should surface more new writers and content proactively rather than defaulting as they have. A listers should commit to featuring new voices much more regularly, and new voices should find a way to band together so the best writing - rather than the best linking and strategy and commercial cleverness - tends to prevail.
Hi Loic,
Just checked my driver's license and everything is in order. Thanks for asking.
Your post giving the Seesmic history seems to have conveniently left out your traffic numbers, number of active users posting video, or for that matter, when the last time was that you flew your private jet around the block.
Please share this information with us, if you feel you deserve to be included in a list of social services which are much more established and well used than Seesmic.
Regards,
AM
Digg-FriendFeed-Seesmic scandal:(
Posted by: Igor Poltavskiy
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July 11, 2008 12:24 AM
Aye, the "point" is that we all have enough digital ADD that it becomes easier and easier to engage massive audience and for most of us -- engage them well. Great post Marshall, though I will says that in the last year there have been a few new characters that have come into the public eye. The roster does change, but it's just a little too slow.
Posted by: Steve Spalding
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July 11, 2008 12:30 AM
I don't know about others, but at least on Twitter I've managed to compartmentalize and allow for "fostering niche communities where everyone has a valued voice" thanks to TweetDeck. I just threw all those "defaults" into their own special category where they only have each others tweets to compete with. It works out nicely. Now if only I didn't have to group every single person I'm following manually. :P
Is there something similar for FF (not talking Rooms here, Rooms are separate from the public stream making them somewhat less valuable to me) and Seesmic?
I am sorry, the Social Media Oligarchy is boring and stinks of Fascism!
Unless Social Media networks will become more democratic they will be relegated to FAIL!
It takes everyone to make a community not just Robert Scoble!
Newbies in any industry need to catch a break before they get their talents recognised and can move up the ladder. I think FriendFeed chose the default popular people wisely, they are nice guys and are happy to engage with the rest of us. Can you imagine that happening in other industries like fashion or TV?
Posted by: Andy Murdoch
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July 11, 2008 2:56 AM
It's pretty simple, there is going to be a pyramid in every social setting you can imagine, including social networks. Maybe there are going to be a few pyramids, but it is impossible to have enough pyramids for everybody to be on top of one.
You need to spend energy to climb, and spending enough energy proves your worth.
Also people have a tendency to follow recommendations from other people, which necessarily ends in "attention pyramid", celebrity system or whatever you want to call it.
Niche communities are a bit like long tail. They exist, but still the power is concentrated in the head, not the tail. Since the head is smaller number of people it is easier to focus their attention and therefore impact. While potential impact of the tail is the same, the tail is so diverse that it can not have one focal point as it happens with the head.
Marshall, Actually I think that Nova Spivack and Jason Calcanis have a point that Blogging has lost its intimacy. I think that the "long tail" that you are looking for is a place between private emails and open blogs. Small groups of people who share ideas, knowledge and generally collect intelligence about a topic they are interested and passionate about. Its not glamourous, but these people are the quiet majority far removed from the A-listers and the Head of the Tail.