Hype cycles, like all cycles, are getting shorter. People want to be the first to say, "You heard it here first, folks: this or that hot thing you hear about all the time is a bunch of hot air."
We love to debunk myths and prick bubbles as much as the next set of pundits, but we think the real-time Web is for real. Financial traders have lived in a real-time world for a while, but only within the confines of the trading floor. When they left work, they entered a batch world. Most other people work in a batch world. That is changing. We are all entering the real-time world of the trader. Some of us are getting there faster, but we are all heading there. And relax, there is an "Off" button!
One reason you see so much news about Twitter is that it is a news business, and journalists love to write about their own business!
Calling Twitter a news business may be a bit limiting. It is more than that. But it certainly is affecting the news business dramatically:
Twitter makes it much easier for journalists to tap into real-time news sources. Mastering Twitter is part of new journalism school.
Traders have always worked in a real-time news business. Information services such as Bloomberg and Reuters compete to deliver news a few seconds faster, and that time difference is important to traders.
Okay, so traders and journalists live in a real-time world. What about the rest of us?
A friend who runs a financial trading systems business told me that Google was constantly trying to poach his best engineers. Why? Because those employees were very good at real-time engineering, and advertising is also a real-time market.
Advertising markets are just like financial markets: available space is matched by available demand. Today, we have two totally different worlds:
These worlds get more interesting as they move closer together and we see the gray areas in between where humans make quick judgment calls, inserting themselves into the real-time flow to, for example, approve creative or simply optimize (choosing one advertiser or publisher over another).
Anything that can be sold in digital form is becoming part of this trend towards real time. We are simply matching supply and demand. Information (or code or images or songs) that was not worth very much yesterday is suddenly very valuable. Or the opposite: its value suddenly drops. No matter what the digital artifact -- writing, spreadsheet numbers, code, design, images, music -- matching supply and demand is critical to realizing value.
You may be selling a digital artifact that costs money to create, but the marginal cost is zero, so you are quite happy to optimize supply and demand in real time and take whatever price the market offers at the time.
Or you may want real-time markets to help manage your spare work capacity. This is what ventures such as Turn Here focus on.
Dell revolutionized the PC industry by using a real-time supply chain to eliminate costs. Inventory risk is the biggest pain point for most businesses that trade physical goods. The real-time Web can have a similarly revolutionary impact on Main Street for businesses that no longer need multi-million dollar supply-chain systems. We are already seeing straws in the wind of this massive change with very simple uses of Titter, such as:
One can imagine this for anything that is either fresh or scarce: when your local farmer has freshly laid eggs, for example. These tools can be used to sell inventory, matching actual customer demand with bargain offers in real time.
Human beings naturally operate in real time. Anyone who has children knows about the "real-time interruption machine."
We also need our batch time, our quiet time for reflection and creation. We need to know when to switch off... literally switch off the devices that constantly ping us. Filtering tools and techniques have become critical. As Clay Shirky famously remarked: "It's not information overload. It's filter failure." But we also need to master the ability to deal with a lot of real-time information in a mode of relaxed concentration. In other words, we need to study how great traders work.
Photo credit: artemuestra.
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Journalist writing about their own business... Twitter = free spam machine.
Real Time is great only if it works. Yesterday I read an article that 40% of Twitter Content is SPAM. How do real people weed through content to find the real news? This is where we are going to have real difficulties.
If a system is created and it can be managed properly and doesn't allow SPAM, then it will work well for everyone.
However, I am with you - everything is moving to real time.
-Guna
I don't understand the claims about problems with spammers. I guess that's because I only follow people who would gnaw off their own leg before they'd spam their followers (and unfollow anyone who doesn't practice gnawing-rule).
The trick is to find the people who have their finger on the pulse. That's not a new thing. And it's only easier to manage with old media because it gives you less choice.
But nothing's changed to the old refrain that if you don't like what's on, change the channel.
You have a rather titillating typo. ;)
Teeler, LOL. In this case I will NOT make a correction to the post, reads much better as is.
.....ad markets generally sell a perishable commodity, generally time-based, so ready-auction markets dominate....some of your points track mi experience...otherz cud use mor nuance bt, hey.....
....nuttr thang....our brainz evolved 2 b extremely real-time....meat: today!!......fear: now!.....sex:.....well you know.....definitely adaptive 500k yrs ago......now?.....not so much, bt it ain't gonna change...w/ individual traders compulsive trading burnz itself out, simple no harm/no foul....
.....when embedded in leading financial institution of the "free-world"....oopz!!.....NOT such a self-correctin thang....sooooooo.......like everyting, middle-ground prob best bt our brainz HATE middle-ground......2 BORING!!.........oh well....
Bernard - Enjoyed reading it & I completely agree with you, much of the twitter buzz is due to journalistic interest.Your thoughts of real time supply chain is thought provocating..but is Twitter ready for that ?
For example,41.6% percent of Internet users who used Twitter did so to keep in touch with their friends.
http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?R=1007193
I have some faith in Trendsspotting's observation here :
http://www.trendsspotting.com/blog/?p=1372
Currently real time search is ubiquitous to ‘twitter search’,however its approaching the ‘peak of inflated expectations’& most of the current contenders would fail & possibly then it transforms from cool to productive.
Any thoughts on this?
~Abby