RWW Predictions Double: Facebook, Microsoft, & Pandora
Just last year, Microsoft snagged a $240 million stake in Facebook in a bidding war against Google. However nothing but speculation has resulted since that stake was won. This week we saw the first steps of integration of Microsoft Live Search on Facebook. Microsoft is promising to improve the user experience on Facebook with the addition of Live Search functionality and advertisements.
We'd like your help in predicting what the percentage of Microsoft's share of searches will be by December of 2008 following the integration of Live Search on Facebook. Will it increase or decrease and by how much? Click here to cast your prediction.
Fast Facts
- The arrangement was first announced in July and offers a revenue opportunity for both companies
- Microsoft owns a stake in Facebook and has an exclusive agreement with the site for banner ads
- Results vary on Facebook and Live.com because Facebook uses certain filters for their search results
Predicting Pandora's New Royalty Rate
In the past few weeks, Pandora was at the forefront of many headlines. The CEO of Pandora fought hard to win a small victory that would grant Internet radio stations more time to reach a new royalty rate agreement with the powers that be. The cut-off time is February 15, 2009, which is right around the corner. We'd like you to predict whether a new royalty rate agreement will be reached in time and what the new royalty rate will be.
Fast Facts
- Senate approved a bill that says Congress must honor any royalty rate agreement reached
- Webcasters and copyright holders have until February 15th to come up with a deal on their own
- Current royalty rates would cost Pandora $18 million of its estimated $25 million in revenue in 2008
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Unfortunately the RIAA views Internet Radio with fear and trepidation. Their royalty schemes express that they view streaming music online as either a literal or defacto not-for-profit business.
This forces the consumption of streamed music online to the margins and requires consumers to break the dreaded DMCA and risk RIAA enforcement action.
As the creator of both instantiations of PulverRadio, I have experienced the RIAA pulling the rug out from under the business model for internet radio .. twice.
At this stage only a wholesale rejection of the music industry by both artists and audiences will result in any affirmative change here.
Pandora is interesting, I have just make another prediction and analysis of Pandora yesterday. Probably you might be interested in looking at it.
About Facebook and Microsoft, I think the future is quite uncertain. It is hard to say that Live Search could indeed help Facebook a lot or in another way Facebook might bring more users for Live Search. In general, Google's share could only increase but not decrease if there is nothing fundamentally new to Live Search. Build itself inside Facebook is just no enough.
Yihong