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Research firm Gartner has just put out a list of the top ten mobile applications of the future. Well, not the distant future, but the far off year of 2012. Nothing on the list is all that surprising or, in many cases, even all that new. Instead, the list includes the sorts of technologies that are just now coming into their own and haven't yet seen widespread adoption as well as the already common technologies that are still experiencing growth.

For many of the categories on this list, there are a number of mobile apps that are already available today. But what Gartner makes clear is that we're just getting started when it comes to their use.

For example, location-based services (LBS) - there still isn't one single app which everyone uses to find their friends out in the real world via their mobile phones. Instead, we have a number of similar but competing applications all vying to be the Facebook of location-based apps.

Another example is money payments - this type of service is having more of an impact in the developing world right now where access to banks is more difficult than here in the Western world where people just want the convenience of paying through their mobiles. When was the last time you paid someone or paid at checkout through your mobile phone? Never? That sounds about right.

The List

The full list is as follows:

  1. Money Transfer: This refers to people sending money via SMS messages. Like mobile payments, this service has more appeal in developing markets for now. However, there may come a time when even using your debit card seems passé, while paying for something with actual cash seems downright ancient.
  2. Location-Based Services: As mentioned above, there are still far too many services to choose from when it comes to location-based social networking, fragmenting the market. Your friends on Loopt are often different than those on Brightkite and that list is different than those on Foursquare. But LBS extends to more than social networks - it includes any application that taps into your phone's GPS capabilities to offer up location-based services of any kind, whether that's local business reviews or directions to the nearest Starbucks. Gartner says this will be one of the most disruptive technologies in the future, with a user base growing from 96 million in 2009 to 526 million in 2012.
  3. Mobile Search: No, mobile search isn't new, but on the mobile platform, it may get shaken up a bit. Gartner predicts that consumers won't necessarily be sticking with the search services they know and use on the Web (think Google, Bing, Yahoo) and instead experiment with using a few different search providers that have "unique technologies" for mobile search. While that statement is a little vague, it sounds like good news for services like Taptu who have entered this field with search offerings designed from the ground-up for mobile devices.
  4. Mobile Browsing: Saying that mobile browsing technologies will be heavily used in the future sounds a little bit like stating the obvious. But as Gartner notes, mobile browsing capabilities currently exist only on 60%+ of handsets today. By 2013, that number will climb to 80%, meaning that those who are still using the app-less,more basic feature phones will still be joining the mobile web in mass numbers over the coming years. That's also good news for web developers who can build mobile web applications to cater to this bunch as opposed to focusing all their efforts into building apps for the numerous mobile platforms like the iPhone, Android, RIM, and others.
  5. Mobile Health Monitoring: Another technology whose impact will be felt more heavily in developing markets, mobile health monitoring is still at an early stage of maturity and implementation says Gartner. Project rollouts have been limited to pilot projects for now, but in the coming years the industry will begin to monetize these efforts by offering mobile healthcare monitoring products, services, and solutions to various care delivery organizations.
  6. Mobile Payments: Like mobile transfers, mobile payments are more common in developing markets at the moment, but that is quickly changing. Yet even as this type of service grows, Gartner admits there will be challenges. Mobile payments will be a "highly fragmented market" where there will not be "standard practices of deployment," notes the report. That makes it sound like this is one technology that will still need some work, even when 2012 rolls around.
  7. Near Field Communications (NFC): More popular in some European and Asian markets than in the U.S., NFC still isn't a standard feature on many of today's phones. That may be about to change, too. In late 2010, Gartner says that NFC-enabled phones will begin to ship in volume, with Asia leading deployments, followed by Europe and North America.
  8. Mobile Advertising: Also not new but growing fast, mobile advertising is one of the most important ways to monetize mobile content. Total spending on mobile advertising in 2008 was $530.2 million and it will grow to $7.5 billion in 2012. And mobile advertising will also be used by companies alongside their other campaigns including TV, radio, print, and outdoors.
  9. Mobile Instant Messaging: Gartner says that latent user demand and market conditions are conductive to mobile IM's future adoption. It will appeal to developing markets where mobile phones are often the only connectivity device a user owns. But will it be a major app by 2012? It seems that SMS is still the service to beat, especially in the developing world. We'll have to wait and see on this one.
  10. Mobile Music: Sure, you have the iPhone, but what about your other options? What about mobile music services - especially those for non-iPhone devices? We're still waiting on Spotify in the U.S., for example, and their competition too. Gartner says that we're beginning to see new innovative models in this area that will include both device (think "Comes with Music") and service bundles.

What's Missing?

A glaring omission from this report is that of Augmented Reality. Gartner had even placed this technology on their "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2009" report earlier this year. Do they not think that AR will have a major impact by 2012? Considering that's only a little over a year away, it could just be too soon for AR to see the widespread adoption that we hoped it would have by then. Or it's possible that - as some have suspected - AR is simply a "cool" way to see and interact with the world around you, but hasn't produced any "must-have," highly useful applications just yet. For example, seeing AR views of local businesses and user recommendations is fun, but is it a markedly better experience than using a service like Yelp? For many, that answer today is "no." AR needs to grow out of being a technology you use "because you can" to one you use "because you have to." Until it's the best option to perform a particular task, it may not make Gartner's next list, either.  



Comments

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  1. Very interesting post. About reality increases agreed in full. As explained in my blog http://bit.ly/28wnb9 this technology is still immature for mobile devices.

     Posted by: Paolo Quadrani Author Profile Page | November 18, 2009 7:11 AM



  2. Well, even as an AR-hater (well, as a hype-hater; I think AR will be useful in some large-ish number of tech generations down the road), I think this Gartner list is incredibly dull and short-sighted.

    One thing you can be sure of is the top app in 2012 will not be in any of these categories, or if it is, it will exist in a form not envisioned by the author of this report.

    Posted by: Anonymous | November 18, 2009 7:25 AM



  3. The focus on mobile web in Africa is hugely important and will have a significant impact on how phones are used globally. Just as with land lines, Africa is skipping a technology (wired web) because the cost of infrastructure is massive. The explosive growth in the mobile phone market across Africa is only limited by the understandably creaky networks.

    Things like the newly annouced We Foundation areresponding to this growth and Gartner are regonising that actually, innovation that has practical uses (money transfer/payments etc) will out-strip the "looks cool but nobody outside of CA will use it" stuff.

    Also, 2012 is more than "a little over a year away".

    Posted by: katie w | November 18, 2009 8:24 AM



  4. That should obviously say "Web Foundation", nice as a We Foundation would doubtless be.

    Posted by: katie w | November 18, 2009 8:26 AM



  5. I think that mobile payments will be huge in the years to come. Why carry a wallet? Everything you need will be available via your phone.

     Posted by: Scott Heath Author Profile Page | November 18, 2009 11:39 AM



  6. There is a lot going on int he media about mobile transfers and once this service has the proven infrastructure and security needed to bring on huge customers to the service, there will be a revolution in the money transfer industry. ATMCASH is a promising service that already has a great service, can you imagine how great it would be if THEY had a mobile transfer feature??

    http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/techbeat/archives/2009/11/money_transfer.html

    Posted by: Wilt Chambers | November 18, 2009 12:05 PM



  7. Mobile Health Care is a new and emerging space - there is already a lot of movement - but it really is in its infancy. Contineo is a mobile app that brings the handheld device (iPhone/iTouch) into the healthcare environment and connects the already existing medical information systems through a unified mobile client.

    http://contineo.us

    Contineo has also released an open source connector for the MedSphere Open Vista platform to enable mobile EMR access to MedSphere customers.

    Posted by: Sam Stave | November 18, 2009 3:01 PM



  8. yep... certainly the money transfer it's on the first place... technology makes you life easier :)

    Posted by: Alex | November 19, 2009 4:44 AM



  9. Great post!

    I was (am still) involved in Canadian Merchant Account Services (another biz), in my opinion Near Field Communications (NFC) is the future of credit card processing.

    Mobile technology is (for sure) a game changer that is coming down the pipeline. It's important for small businesses to stay on top of this platform. By being an early adopter, you can sometimes can find a really inexpensive innovative way to advertise.

    Posted by: Matthew Hunt | November 19, 2009 7:39 AM



  10. Great insight on the industry. Can't wait for 2012.

    Posted by: Jen | November 19, 2009 12:59 PM



  11. I think that mobile money transfer is going to be a big thing but it would probably need more time to mature, the use of money transfer online hasnt picked up so fast comparing the time it took since it was made available and the adoption rate by end-users.

    I believe that operators in addition to banks and money transfer companies would need to support such service to eliminate the doubtful mobile end-user transfering money over mobile.

    Mobile Internet and LBS however is truly the next big thing, social communities over mobile backed up with information and content portals or channels is what driving the traffic, the user of location based services and the mobile broadband is giong to be the main meat for the operators and content providers to take a chunk of revenues out of value added services.

    Posted by: Mohammed | November 23, 2009 2:16 AM



  12. What about virtual digital goods and gifts and virtual currencies?
    The digital goods market is booming and is set to be much more mature by 2012. This, coupled with a growing mobile marketing spend offers a compelling proposition to be exploited by virtual goods suppliers (in both business and consumer markets).

    Digital goods, gifts and rewards can be intwined with social networks, location based services, sent user to user and so on… Also I imagine virtual currencies (as part of mobile cash) will be huge. Disclaimer: I do have a biased opinion however as cofounder at Little World Gifts.

    Whilst I agree with some of these mobile growth areas I think the innovators will be those that blend some of these service concepts: like "Location Aware" mobile payment solutions, or "peer influenced music/content" delivered via NFC.

    Posted by: Katie Lips | November 24, 2009 10:05 AM



  13. Guys- these are trends for 2010. Predicting for 2012 is virtually impossible so if you are attempting it the predictions need to be a hell of a lot more innovative. Just look how the app store has exploded in one year, and mobile payment exists already with Square- it would have to be a slow couple of years before 2012.

    Posted by: Tom | December 2, 2009 7:07 AM



  14. What about MLBMMG (Mobile Location Based Massively Multiplayer Game)?

    I mean, smartphones have GPS, Web, a camera and many users. Why not have some fun with it? :)

    We will see more games like this one: http://www.parallelkingdom.com/

    Posted by: Etienne | December 18, 2009 7:43 PM



  15. among this money transfer application can lead a lot of time to the release ? but surely by 2012 all tasks can be achieved ..since all mobile aspects would be more useful but mooney transfer in sms will make a change but these must be developed with better authentication services . as we see a part of messages may miss during sms in a low configurated phones .. and hence the phones must provide real authentication to the users and must provide efficient transaction..

    Posted by: prasankumar | August 17, 2010 10:50 PM



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