MySpace and Facebook, as it turns out. Despite the land grab by numerous startups looking to become the number one social network for mobile devices, it's becoming apparent that mobile social networking isn't necessarily going to be the new frontier that everyone thought it would be. Instead, as consumers surf the "real internet" on their mobile devices, they're also interacting with "real" social networks like MySpace and Facebook. Could it be that consumers don't want new and separate social networks just for the mobile phone?
According to new data released on Monday from ABI Research, nearly half of social networking users (46%) have visited a social network on a mobile device. Out of those users, 70% have visited MySpace and 67% have visited Facebook. No other social network, including those specialized for mobile devices, even reached 15% adoption. Based on these numbers, ABI Research concludes that consumers do not want new social networks for mobile phones - they just want to interact with the social networks where they're already members.
This is further supported by data about what consumers do when mobile social networking. Checking for both comments and messages from their friends register above 50% for mobile social network users and 45% of users post status updates. In other words, they're doing the same sort of things on their phone as they would do if at their computer. The phone is just an extension of their online social networking life, not a separate and different platform for new types of interactions.
The survey, which was conducted 2Q, 2008, interviewed 500 users of online social networks. Out of those users, only 1% had visited a social network on their phone only. A mobile social network, for example, would be phone-only. Yikes. That number is low.
At first glance, we have to admit, these numbers don't look promising for mobile social networks. Although it's possible that some of these social networks will stick around thanks to strong and supportive niche audiences, it doesn't look like any today are poised for mainstream success.
Then again, it could just be too soon to tell. Given how long it takes for mainstream users to discover any new technology, it may be just a matter of time before mobile social networking really takes off. With the recent explosion of new touchscreen smart phones (iPhone, Android, , HTC Dream, Instinct, LG Dare, etc.) designed with web surfing in mind, mobile social networking could still be right around the corner.
It all comes down to whether or not consumers are ever going to really be interested in the features that are unique to mobile social networks such as geolocating your friends or finding other users near you. Will these features alone be enough of a draw for users to adopt a third (or fourth, fifth, etc.) social network just for when they're on the go? Even if that occurred and a mobile social network began to pick up some steam, all MySpace or Facebook would have to do to compete is add geolocation to their mobile app to once again reign supreme. And we're beginning to think that's a far more likely scenario.
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I am a big fan of twitterberry!! Best thing to happen to my Blackberry since BBM.
Posted by: Stephanie | October 7, 2008 8:10 AM
"Could it be that consumers don't want new and separate social networks just for the mobile phone?"
Wait, you mean that people wanting to use mobile social networking, which inherently requires a network of people, would not want to recreate the large networks of friends they've already built on mainstream services and manage duplicate details for another service so they can access a few features still in infancy that will probably be developed via applications for the mobile versions of the mainstream networks?
imho.
Posted by: theharmonyguy | October 7, 2008 8:12 AM
I didn't know that there were so many social network sites.
I dont know why they would bother looking at this cause it's obvious myspace and facebook are at the top.
Posted by: Daniel Kemp | October 7, 2008 8:14 AM
thanks you.
Posted by: mehmet | October 7, 2008 8:21 AM
A few years ago, I was in a room with knowledgeable cell phone chip engineers and marketers. They were pouring over data that definitively said that consumers would never want their cell phones to do anything other than conduct voice calls. Fast forward to today, and you can see how wrong that thinking and "data" was.
To try to determine how receptive consumers will be to other mobile social networks at this stage is like trying to call who will win the World Series from the first pitch on opening day.
To see the bigger picture, you have to look at the way networks form, consider geosocial patterns around the world (which are behind the US market in many respects) and understand that social is still the great experiment.
No one knows what is going to happen. But, with the speed at which the space is moving, we'll know more soon enough.
Posted by: Brad Mays | October 7, 2008 8:29 AM
It will be very hard for other local social networks to compete in terms of traffic, but I do believe users might get value from niche local sites, that may not be mainstream. The question of course then is sustainability...
Posted by: Jorge Escobar | October 7, 2008 8:55 AM
It is amazing to me that Facebook has risen so far, so fast. When I was a senior in college in 2004 about 1/10th of my friends had even heard of Facebook. I saw it for what it was, a way for guys to meet attractive girls, and immediately knew it was going to be an astounding success. They have definitely figured out how to market their product!
Jesse W.
http://www.churchofcowherd.com/
Posted by: Jesse Wojdylo | October 7, 2008 8:58 AM
With iPhones and Android phones that have improved so much the experience of mobile web, in the long run will there be a need for a different web for mobile? See link below.
http://disruptionmatters.com/2008/10/07/mobile-internet-platforms-do-we-need-a-different-web-for-mobile/
Facebook is already announcing partnerships with many telcos such as Telefonica to bring Facebook to their mobile users. I would doubt they are not working yet to add some location features to enable geo-tagging or geo-messaging.
Posted by: TIM | October 7, 2008 9:15 AM
A ridiculously naive analysis. That's like saying "1 billion users check email on their desktop so no need for social networks such as Facebook with only 100k of users".
This "if it's lots of niche not a few broadcast, it isn't working" mentality is so Heritage Media, and not worthy of RWW.
Time on site for Facebook via desktop is extremely low - it doesn't come in on the top 50 Social networks (hitwise) - so it makes sense that for quick updates, Facebook has a high usage on the mobile. Get in, check updates, get out.
Compare time in interaction with niche networks - SMS ones for example, or Twitter (3 million users) - and you'll have a very different picture.
For my money, I'd invest in Time-on-site, not number of users. Engagement, not number of eyeballs.
Or else we'll be saying that email still rules and Facebook doesn't come close to the number of email accounts in the world. Like I said, a nonsensical extrapolation!
I don't have much respect for ABI Research at the best of times (pure hatred might be closer to the truth) but this is even more idiotic than usual...
Posted by: silkcharm.myopenid.com
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October 7, 2008 5:13 PM
You cannot make a meaningful analysis based on this data.
Firstly, where are the 500 interviewees from? All over the world? The West? The US ? New York? I suspect it's one of the latter. That would make a huge difference to the conclusions you draw, because in India, Kenya, Russia, China, and many other countries around the world, many people's only access to internet is via their mobile. Lots of mobile social networks are doing very well indeed in these countries.
Secondly, the interviewees were all PC mobile social network users, and to quote from ABI Research's own introduction to the report on their own website:
"Just 1% had visited a social network via a mobile phone only, which is hardly surprising given that the survey was of a panel of online social network users." Well yes indeed. This may indicate that those who use online social networks (in the US let me guess) are not exploring mobile-only social networks much, but what about everyone else? You mention the need for strong and supportive niche audiences for mobile social networks. Well if you consider that niche to be 'people who don't have PC access' then they are reaching out to hundreds of millions, soon billions, of users around the world who do not have and will never have PC access. That's a big niche.
Posted by: Patrick Lord | October 8, 2008 6:09 AM
Whoever made the comment that people don't want to rebuild their social networks on a mobile-only social network had it dead on.
I disagree that this means people won't be using mobile technology as much as first supposed. On the contrary, they will-just as soon as Facebook and MySpace add the mobile apps they need to stay on top.
Posted by: Christie Adams | October 8, 2008 2:02 PM
Ask just about any college student what the most popular sites are and MySpace and Facebook are in the top five of their list.
Posted by: Paul | October 11, 2008 6:23 PM
I'm working with the Xumii crowd to carve our niche. It's a big space, and it's early days. A lot of people won't want to have additional social networks, but there is lots of room for niches and specialists, and also cross network plays.
It's also important to remember that the USA is just one small part of the total social network opportunity and is generally behind Europe and Asia in mobile.
Posted by: Mick Liubinskas
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October 15, 2008 3:37 PM
thank..
Posted by: söve | October 15, 2008 9:58 PM
thank..
Posted by: boya | October 15, 2008 10:00 PM