Twitter Effect's Power Overstated when it Comes to Making and Breaking Movies
When summer movies like Sacha Baron Cohen's "Bruno" and "Funny People," the latest from comedic hit-maker Judd Apatow, tanked, for once people weren't blaming the quality of the films themselves. They were blaming Twitter. According to multiple reports, it was the early buzz on Twitter - much of it negative - that caused these movies to crash and burn. Similarly, when movies do well, as is the case now with the sci-fi thriller "District 9" and Brad Pitt's action-filled "Inglorious Basterds," credit is given to the powerful "Twitter effect" and its ability to make or break a movie. But is Twitter really having this big an impact on the movie industry?
Twitter Effect in Action?
Recent news from crimson hexagon, makers of an online conversation-monitoring platform called VoxTrot, reveals that the word of mouth circulating on Twitter over the weekend about "Inglorious Basterds" was largely positive. In fact, only 8% of the 4500 sampled tweets had anything negative to say about the movie. Not surprisingly, the movie ended up doing extremely well at the box office, pulling in $37.6 million in the U.S., with an additional $27.1 million overseas, during its opening weekend.
But was Twitter really the impetus behind the movie's success? According to Matt Atchity, editor in chief of News Corp.-owned review site Rotten Tomatoes, the answer is "no." He thinks Twitter's influence is overhyped and overrated. In a recent Forbes interview, Atchity is quoted as saying:
"It's an interesting word of mouth, but I think only for a certain part of the audience. For the younger, more connected audience that may be true but for older audiences, I don't know...Do I think Twitter is affecting my cousins in Kansas City and what they see? If it's a big enough movie, they are going to see it."
Tweets Don't Equal Ticket Sales
He may have a point. Despite the reports and charts attempting to prove the "Twitter Effect," what's being said on Twitter may not have as big an impact on real-world actions as is being implied by these numbers. For one thing, we know that the demographics on Twitter aren't representative of the demographics of the movie-goers. (Teens don't tweet, remember?) Plus, correlating the volume of tweets about a movie, as research service Trendrr recently did, only proves people are talking, not what they're saying nor whether their anticipatory tweets will lead to actual ticket sales. Besides, don't we all know by now that correlation is not the same as causation?
Online Buzz Doesn't Always Deliver
Finally, online chatter, even when positive, can't save a movie (or a TV show for that matter, as "Firefly" fans will be sure to remind you.) Case in point: 2006's "Snakes on a Plane." In what was one of the first cases of crowdsourcing movie production to fans, the filmmakers eventually reshot parts of the movie to meet fan expectations. They added in more snakes, more gore, and more death scenes, thus bumping the rating of the movie from PG-13 to R. And, of course, they added in the now-famous line "I want these mother####ing snakes off the mother####ing plane!"
Based on the online chatter and excitement surrounding the film, everyone was sure it would be a success. Interest in the film went viral, with fan-made trailers and scripts, lit-up message boards, and general frenzy. What happened at the box office? Did "Snakes" become a smashing success? No, quite the opposite. The movie managed to rake in only $15 million on its opening weekend and, in the end, grossed $34 million domestically - only $1 million more than the production budget alone. In other words, it bombed.
What this means for Twitter is that the online chatter taking place on the popular microblogging site, while still an important vector for studying sentiment, is not powerful enough on its own to truly impact the overall success or failure of a movie. As of now, only the movie-going audience can do that. And guess what? They're not all on Twitter... well, at least not yet.
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Agreed Sarah...although one could argue, that the calculated web activity behind Snakes on a Plane helped it earn most of the 15 million it collected on opening weekend. That movie should have fared far worse...in fact, without the marketing activities, it most likely would have gone straight to DVD.
Yes, you're right, tweets don't mean success, but Twitter is a conduit for spreading a message-it has no more control over the message that do telephone lines. Chatter is chatter regardless of its form. Marketers are getting better at creating online chatter, but most still have a way to go to relative to turning buzz into profits.
@Brian: Good point. That movie was terrible!
Sarah, I'm of the opinion that the same could be said of Twitter in general: it's use and influence are exceeded exponentially by the hype piled on it by (somewhat less than impartial) tech bloggers/journos. Despite the much-lauded tweeting from the aftermath of the Iranian election - yes, it got news out faster but no, it did nothing to change conditions on the ground nor did it have any lasting impact whatsoever - Twitter has yet to provide any real benefit beyond personal aggrandizement (Scoble and Winer, I'm looking at YOU, you self-important twits). Tweet me when something's really happening...
Great article Sarah,
You are right about Trendrr charts only proving a glimpse into the volume, frequency and velocity of mentions for the movie, on twitter for instance, and the founders are very careful not to position such data as sentiment or causality.. as you rightly point out, "correlation is not the same as causation". More to the point, the charts are simply structuring data and visualizing the buzz as it happens; which is agnostic to cause and (usually) sentiment. It is up to analysts to determine cause-effect and that generally involves a myriad of variables.
The entire movie-going audience way not be on Twitter, but that doesn't mean they won't be influenced by what is said there. Popular conversations and trends inevitably cross over into the real world and this shared sentiment is a powerful motivator when people head to the movies.
I think twitter conversations are more of a result than a cause in these cases. Sure there can be some impact, but bad moves beget bad conversations on twitter. And good movies beget good conversations on twitter. does it influence some? Maybe. But it's more the result than the cause.
Thank you for this article. I swear Read Write Web is the only blog covering social media with integrity left anymore...
Mashable's coverage of this same story was so poorly researched. Its nice to see some thoughtful analysis and real journalism shine through...
This is a chicken or the egg conversation. Seems to me that tweets are just reflecting the conversations that are happening everywhere - on the web, on the phone, at home, etc. Twitter comments only have any sort of influence over Twitter users, and that does not encompass the entire movie-going population by far.
I also should have read the last paragraph which pretty much stated the exact same thing. >.>
Nothing could have saved Snakes on a Plane..terrible concept from start to finish.
Posted by: suburbanoblivion.com
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August 28, 2009 1:13 PM
you can also find us on twitter Cheapnintendowii
I disagree, really. A lot of attention on Twitter is going to lead to a lot of exposure and awareness. Box office figures aside. You can't really judge them. WHat would the figures have been without the knock-on Twitter effect?
It got news out faster but no, it did nothing to change conditions on the ground nor did it have any lasting impact whatsoever - Twitter has yet to provide any real benefit beyond personal aggrandizement.
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I often refer to Twitter from the http://imusicmash.com iphone Palm Pre application when I'm deciding on a movie to rent at the kiosk. Almost every time, the Twitter comments helps me to decide if a movie is rent-worthy.
A
Twitter Rules, its the reall and now media of this generation...
Al I too love twitter comments to help me decide on a movie... Saw anyone?
Twitter and movie media is an aweinspiring site, to watch the news unfolds from a simple tweet is something truely magnificient and amazing to have...
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We must remember that Twitter is just one of many Social Bookmarking sites. It may only offer a temporary boost for ticket sales.