Twitter is No Threat at All to Facebook, Traffic Analyst Says
Hitwise, a web traffic analytics firm that often publishes fun and interesting stats on issues of the day, looks today at how threatened Facebook's growth might be by Twitter. The company's conclusion: Twitter is no threat at all.
Traffic to Twitter is declining, Hitwise General Manager of Global Research Bill Tancer writes, while Facebook's growth continues to go through the roof. Facebook is approaching ubiquity, while Twitter's appeal is narrow and its average registered user is totally unengaged. "That being said," Tancer writes, "I still plan to tweet this entry."
Twitter may be befuddling still for mainstream masses of users, but for the millions of people who get it - Twitter is invaluable. It's a public listening post for innovative thought leaders across a broad swath of industries - if that's what you're into. It's also a great place to read short jokes about flatulence or sex from people you've never met - if that's what you're looking for.
Facebook feels more secure though, it's got clearer social hooks and it's easier to start using. As a result, Facebook is probably ten or more times the size of Twitter. As Twitter user Justin Houk put it today, "Twitter is a cult classic in the making - not a blockbuster."
The Hitwise data doesn't take into account the use of 3rd party Twitter clients, but the Twitter website is a more common way to interact with the service and its traffic is a good proxy for overall Twitter use.
What are the relative business prospects for both, long term? It's hard to say, but charts like these from Hitwise have got to make Twitter HQ feel uneasy.
See also: Facebook Has Twitter Envy - But Why? and Twitter and Facebook Investment Terms and Game Plans
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I guess its to early to say that twitter its trying new feautres and improving their system lets wait !
While I'd agree generally that Twitter is not a threat to Facebook in its current form, I think charts suggesting a Twitter downfall are misleading. Twitter experienced freakish growth in early 2009, much of it driven by celebrities. It's not at all surprising to see that drop off abruptly, and Twitter could still be very much on a positive growth curve among the people you've called "people who get it."
I'm also wondering where this comes from: "The Hitwise data doesn't take into account the use of 3rd party Twitter clients, but the Twitter website is a more common way to interact with the service" - is there data supporting this (ie, pulled from the API)? And does that data distinguish mainstream users from "people who get it"? Again, I wouldn't be surprised to see a positive growth curve on 3rd party clients despite the huge web traffic dropoff.
Posted by: bradweikel.com
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October 29, 2009 1:22 PM
I would have disagree with the fact that Twitter is no threat to Facebook, because I think that the whole reason that Facebook created the app that allows its users to connect to Twitter was thier way of trying to steal some of Twitter's firepower. Why would they do that if they didn't feel that Twitter was a threat?
While the Twitter trend from its website has flattened, that's not the whole story. This Mashable article says 35% of tweets are coming from third party tools. These are the most active users and their usage trend is not included in Hitwise's data. http://mashable.com/2009/08/20/twitter-web/
Out of all the people I know using Twitter, not one of them uses the Twitter web site to post tweets. When I look at the people I am following it shows the client they used - maybe one in twenty are posting from Twitter. Most are posting from mobile clients or desktop software.
(Of course that's not forgetting that you can post to Facebook from third party software and mobile devices).
Until this usage is measured any data is suspect at best - I can't see how the Twitter site would be a good proxy when the expansion of Twitter has been mostly driven by mobile devices.
I don't think Twitter should be that worried - they are not direct competitors and work in quite different ways - Facebook seems to be the one that's currently panicking with the rapid changes in interface and subsequent (apparent) loss of features.
The idea of Twitter is a great one, it's a perfect way to have an opt-in network of people ready to 'listen' to what you have to say, or to turn on your every word.
Unfortunately, the technology for Twitter has been around for some time now. Even FB has a way to PUSH information. Twitter is a one trick pony, it will diminish over time since it's a site that encourages more remote interaction than to visit the mothership where advertisers have a chance to reach the users.
See how long Twitter lasts when they start to send ads along with messages.