Vint Cerf: We Still Have 80 Per Cent of the World to Connect
"By 2010 we will have run out of IP addresses if we don't do something about it," Vint Cerf, Google's chief Internet evangelist and the man commonly referred to as "the father of the Internet," told ReadWriteWeb last month. (Video embedded below.)
With the number of Internet-enabled devices particularly mobile phones soaring, very few IP addresses remain vacant, and with only about 20 per cent of the world connected to the Net, that's a problem. And consumers, if you think this doesn't affect you, think again. That latest gadget you bought - is it IPv6 compatible?
TCP/IP: So, what's it all about anyway?
To fully understand IPv6 we need to take a look at TCP/IP and this means a quick trip back in time.
It all started way back in 1969, when the Advanced Research Projects Agency Network (ARPANET) was using a transmission protocol known as the Network Control Protocol(NCP) to transmit data across networks. Protocols, if you think of them as languages, are needed so that networks and computers can talk to one another.
Expensive, cumbersome and slow, NCP was found to be limiting and in 1973, the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) initiated a research program, known as the Internetting project, to develop a better communication protocol.
The networks which emerged from this research became the basis for what we know as the Internet, and the protocols developed during this time became known as the TCP/IP Protocol Suite.
At its most basic level, the IP part ensured packets were routed to the right place by providing unique identifying numbers to all hosts connecting to the network, and the TCP part managed the transfer of that data.
On January 1, 1983 NCP was deemed obsolete when the ARPANET switched over to the new TCP/IP protocol suite, and as a result, marked this date as the official birth date [for some] of the Internet.
Getting to V1 from V6
According to the Living Internet, after Vint Cerf and Robert Kahn designed TCP/IP, DARPA contracted with three sites to develop operational versions: BBN, Stanford and the University College London, and four increasingly better versions of TCP/IP were developed: TCPv1, TCPv2, which then split into TCPv3 and IPv3. Stability finally arrived with TCPv4 and IPv4; the standard protocol we know and use today.
IPv4 uses 32-bit addresses, which limits the address space to 4,294,967,296 (232) possible unique addresses. But, as some of these are reserved for specific purposes, it reduces the total number available.
IPv6 with its 128 bit addresses increases the number of potential unique addresses to 3.4e+38 (a little bit more than 340 trillion, trillion, trillion). Additionally, it is designed to rectify issues found with IPv4 such as data security.
IPv6 is expected to slowly replace IPv4, with the two protocol systems expected to run simultaneously for many years.
But, what happened to IPv5?
Typically, the most often asked question when talking about IPv4 and IPv6 is what happened to IPv5? IPv5 was known as an experimental streaming audio/video protocol. According to Raffi Krikorian, a protocol named ST, the Internet Stream Protocol was created in the late 1970's and two decades later revised to become ST2, at which point it was implemented in commercial projects by IBM, NeXT, Apple and Sun. ST and ST2 were already given that magical "5" notes Krikorian. Given it had little to do with the fundamental structure of IP addressing, IPv5 is not commonly recognized.
We're running out of IP addresses
While the establishment of a single networking protocol was an important step toward maintaining order in the then new internetworked world, no one could have guessed the growth of the Internet, nor the number of IP addresses required to cover the ever growing demand.
"My only defense is that decision was made in 1977, at a time when it was uncertain if the Internet would work," Cerf said recently, adding that a "128-bit address space seemed excessive back then."
Watch our video below to get Cerf's take on IPv6 - and why switching over is so important.
Recorded at SMX West 2009 by ReadWriteWeb
Vint Cerf image: Vint Cerf playing Spacewar on PDP-1
Credit: Flickr Joi
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We've been talking IPv6 for over a decade now. I'm ready. I know the last few school districts I've worked for are ready (have been ready for a while); actually the counties are ready, we're NATing the machines in the districts.
It seemed like everyone was talking about it at the beginning of the decade but then all the talk died down.
Everyone that I've talked to about it lately seems ready, we just need someone to flip the switch (yes, I know it won't be that easy).
That was quite informative. A look into the history is quite fscinating.
So what is next?
SHifting to 256 bit!
It might be the time for some major changes for the internet/networks. I can't remember exactly but I think was Bill Gates concerned about the future of the internet because of its some kinds of limitations.
It's in Google's interest to push IPv6:
1. IPv6 would enable everybody's cellphones and other personal devices to be public addressable (crawlable by Google)
2. Google's crawling scale advantage would disappear soon enough by Moores' law, if we're stuck on IPv4, as public addresses max out at 4+ billions.
From some perspectives, IPv4 with NAT has certain advantages over IPv6:
1. Most people don't publish content on the web with their own IP addresses. Many home computers and devices would be behind NAT routers and the chance of accidental leaking of private info is reduced.
2. Limited IPv4 addresses would mean higher barrier of entry for web publishing with disposable IP addresses to circumvent blacklists, hence a incentive to reduce web spams.
I really, really wish that people would stop perpetuating the totally unfounded myth that IPv6 has some magical security properties which make it more secure than IPv4.
IPv6 has all the security problems of IPv4 *plus* new security problems of its own - all in hex, heh.
Please stop repeating this totally groundless claim, thanks!
Very interesting topic, 80 percent is still high but you're right..we should start doing something about it before we run out of IP addresses.
So what is next?
SHifting to 256 bit!
We would not need 256 bits. 128 bits give us 3.4e+38 addresses. There are approx. 1+e22 stars in observable universe. That means 3.4+e16 addresses for every existing star.
Feel the diference
With IPv4 we have addresses:
4000000000
With IPv6 every star in Universe would have:
34000000000000000
Wow, good post, i didn't know that we're running out of IP address, all i know is that the Internet i getting slow everyday as the number of websites keep increasing.
Right now, i'm having lagging fever at my place. Hope the authority will do something about it. Cheers!
interesting article. I knew that the transition has been coming - I wasn't aware however that they expected to run out by 2010...
If everyone isn't ready by then I think we will see some places starting to use it - i.e. a cable internet provider issuing ipv6 to its customers who are ready or just making the modem figure it out.
The internet has to be infinite to be free.
I'm really worried about this problem, because it may cause internet "real estate" to become scarce, and that may cause a further reduction on accessibility to the unwealth.
"all i know is that the Internet i getting slow everyday as the number of websites keep increasing."
Hahah, that's a good one.
My teachers have been examining IPv6 for a long time now. After we finally made it use able at my college campus we found that many are not taking this with proper caution. Vint Cerf is correct we need to expand or information to greater highest and still we need to connect that other 80%. I truly wish to see this done in my lifetime and it has helped to further the my passion in the studies of computers.