Web Trends: What's New in 2009, Part 2
Last week we discussed some of the new trends we're seeing on the Web in 2009: open data, structured data, apps that filter content effectively, real-time, personalization, mobile (especially location-based), and Internet of Things (the Web in real-world objects). We asked for your thoughts on these trends, along with your suggestions on what we should add. Also we were interested to know what products you've seen this year that are doing something new and 'beyond Web 2.0'. In this post we look at some of your responses, to try to define further what defines this current era of the Web.
So What Else is New?
Other than the trends we've already listed, what else did our readers identify as new this year?
Babak Samii pointed out that in 2009 there has been an increase in "real, defined business models that can actually generate revenue." MacStories agreed, noting that we'll see many innovations in revenue models as a result.
Aaron Fulkerson of Mindtouch commented that "Web Oriented Architectures are redefining ROI and TCO for enterprises." I had to google the second acronym (shows how long I've been out of the corporate world - it means "Total Cost of Ownership"). Aaron is right that enterprises are taking the Web seriously now for business apps - the slow rise in popularity of Google Apps in enterprises is evidence of this.
Willi commented that there is a "new lightweight" about the current Web. "There is a new granularity, atomicity and a kind of chemistry," he remarked. He noted the way that people can "jump in Twitter from persons to hashtags to new interesting persons and their social bubble in real-time." As examples, he pointed to products like Evernote (a note-taking app - our most recent review) and Mir:ror (we reviewed Mir:ror earlier today - it's an Internet-enabled device which enables you to create actions on your computer via everyday objects such as coffee mugs and books). Willi noted that while they may appear to be relatively trivial products, "new use patterns and user benefits emerge" out of them.
Open Data... Except Export
Not everyone in our previous post agreed with the initial set of trends. RWW commenter William claimed that 'open data' is a misnomer, because users mostly cannot export their data from the likes of Facebook, Twitter, Myspace, Friendfeed, Google, et al. We wouldn't go as far as William and label this "web 1.9.8.4.", however it's fair to say that - as far as users go - the promise of open data far outweighs the reality.
Having said that, the other meaning of 'open data' is that it's open for developers to build on top of. The plethora of Twitter apps built on top of Twitter's API is evidence enough of this. While Jason Barone called this "a one-way stream back to their closed system, in the form of an API," it's better than what we had before - which was fewer APIs and not many Linked Data sets (see the Linked Data graph from just 2 years ago, in this recent post). So overall we're encouraged that API data - or even better, Linked Data sets - will enable more and better connected web apps. This makes for a richer ecosystem of Web apps and social connections, which is a very good thing.
But point taken William and Jason, today for users the idea of 'open data' is half-realized at best. It won't be truly open until we have data portability - when you own your identity and content on the Web.
Real-time in the Real World
So far much of the focus on real-time as a new(ish) trend on the Web has focused on trendy apps such as Twitter and FriendFeed. However, Andria Krewson pointed out in the comments to our last post that real-time will spread much further than the early adopters:
"Real-time is huge. Many companies are built on timed data dumps, with the timing affecting workflow and cash flow, but the always-on generation will soon pressure businesses to provide real-time online information. Banks that don't post real balances in a timely way, or insurance companies that take weeks or months to process paperwork, or government agencies that don't provide timely transparent data will face pressures from millennials demanding faster, more accurate information."
On this note, a commenter called Joe remarked that we may be mis-using the term 'real-time.' "For the record," said Joe, "none of those sites you mentioned are doing REAL real-time, they are simply doing interval-based polling for new data on the server." Joe advised us to check out http://obama.collecta.com to see a good example of pushing to the browser using long-polling, not interval polling. We did indeed check that out, and wrote up our findings. While we were impressed that the search results were all less than a minute old, we're not convinced that just more speed means a better form of real-time than Twitter or FriendFeed. Time will tell.
Note: for a very mathematical explanation of why Twitter isn't really real-time, read this comment by Falafulu Fisi (made on a recent RWW post).
Conclusion
Well, there is no conclusion because the Web is an evolving beast. We're excited to see open data becoming more prevalant, even if it hasn't fully opened up yet. We're excited to see real-time making such an impact this year. We're excited about mobile and Internet of Things. There is a lot of innovation happening this year, which is pleasing to see.
Once again we invite you to list in the comments any other trends you're noticing - and just as importantly, what products you're seeing that exemplify these trends.
Here's the original 5-minute presentation which kicked this series off:
Image credits: cartoon screenshot from Geek And Poke; nano:ztag by aaron schmidt
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There's something funny about the web in 2009. In 2006-2007, we looked at the social web as discovery. MySpace was about friend collecting. In 2008, as we transitioned into Facebook, it became more about connecting to the people we already know.
As we adopt "lighter" interactions, on platforms like Twitter and FriendFeed, we're settling into a middle area - where we speak with those we know, those we aspire to know and those who we believe are like-minded. We are discovering friends, but in a more contextually relevant way.
And as open technologies bridge our platforms, from Facebook Connect to integrated Twitter chat, these like-minded connections become more real, more portable and true to lif, and richer. We no longer know people as "Jim the Social Guy" or "Jane the Baker", but Jim is now a father, a social guy and an ardent Chicago Bulls fans, and Jane is a biker on the weekend.
We have begun, as users to focus more on the connections we are forming with people as people, and less on the connections we are forming with technology. Naturally, the mainstream media still loves to name drop Twitter, but a number of them are starting to get this right. Looking forward to 2010.
Real time web will rock this year, fast pages, Good article again :)
There is much potential in the web of 2009, but the landscape is still littered with patently un-monetizeable ventures. These horizontal, consumer facing 'microservices', have taken the winds of capital out of the practical and well researched vertical and technical web applications that could have served the skilled professions.
It is almost, but not quite to the level of VC malpractice, that scores of subject matter experts and journeymen could not get a meeting, while clone location based apps (the sham du jure) are stoked with the remaining scraps of capital.
Please, spare me the bootstrapping platitudes; until you have tried to code a mission critical J2ME with web portal for a real professional application, don't give me, "get a programmer to take some equity". They want money, professional apps take capex, and the money for most of the off-the-starting-line capital is going in consumer focused services whose models are essentially unchanged from 07-08.
Keep your eyes on the deadpool.
There's a trend I haven't seen yet but I hope is around the corner.
Tagging really changed the way that people sorted and discovered items online and it has helped us to manage the chaos on sites like Flickr and others.
But the topic tagging that we do now is only half of the true potential of tagging. The other side of it that I see is impression tagging.
There is so much stuff on the web right now that it would be nice to know what other people who had already consumed something thought of it before deciding whether to consumer it yourself. In other words, if I am on ReadWriteWeb or the New York Times website, or any other site, it would be nice to be able to only look at items that users thought were funny, or interesting, or incredible.
This could be implemented very simply by allowing the viewers/readers of those items to be able to post tags to them with their impressions of them. These tags would be to comments what topic tags are to descriptions. There is no equivalent now except for "digg"ing or saying I "like" something on other sites which really limits the true potential of this concept. If people were free to say they "digg"ed something, or "like"d something, or they thought it was funny, crazy, cute, hilarious, wild, terrible, unbelievable, or whatever, then it would really allow a much greater level of interaction between users and the content they consume online.
I would love to see this as a trend going forward because I think it would really help users discover content online. It essentially would be a kind of universal recommendation engine.
Here is a quick slideshow of how a concept could be used on a site like Twitter: http://www.slideshare.net/BarrettNashville/how-tags-could-improve-your-twitter-experience-presentation
Great, it's nice to see a part 2, and thanks for the mention ;)
Anyway..
Having said that, the other meaning of 'open data' is that it's open for developers to build on top of.
Well, this is a great concept. It makes me think of "linked data for governments" thing we were talking about next week. Imagine that developers could build applications in collaboration with govs, maybe to control your paid taxes and stuff like this..It's not like now, where you have to write your data manually, you could just connect to "Gov Open Data" and get your status.
Amazing.
About Real Time: well, I don't understand all this excitement about it. I mean, as I said many times, "fast" indexing doesn't mean real time.
Real time is when you get a notification like "Richard is writing a tweet", not when you get "Richard tweeted two minutes ago". For example on Msn you can see "Richard is writing" and that is real time.
Let's see, anyway.
Love the point from William that open data can be a misnomer, because it's difficult to get personal data out of social services or, even more commonly, proprietary content management systems.
Ross Mayfield, chairman and co-founder of Socialtext, asked a question on Twitter tonight that illustrated the problem. He was seeking to find out how professional journalists could easily archive their own work. Getting that data out of proprietary systems isn't easy, even for the authors. So far, there's not a clean, easy answer.
Also love Barrett's idea in the comments about user tagging to help filter the noise. The best filter I've seen is a combination of folksonomy (free-form tags from users) and taxonomy (tags chosen from a static list created by an archivist). LibraryThing leads the way so far in this approach.
There is also an emerging trend towards simplicity amongst niche applications / gadgets that focus on specific tasks, instead of offering an all-in-one solution. People will start using the piece of software or hardware that is best suited for a particular problem or environment.
So the trend that both Google and Apple started around 10 years ago with their simple approach to products and services usability is becoming more and more deeply ingrained as a way of thinking in the technology world today. Ever heard of a video game console called Wii? It's another great example of thinking ahead of your competition using this approach.
The entrepreneurs of the late and post Web 2.0 era grew up with these companies and are now applying this philosophy to their own services. Take the 37signals products for example and the numerous apps that were built after their role model, Twitter, Tumblr, Posterous etc. They are all focussed upon a small number of features and are simple and fun. Perhaps most importantly, these new generation services are hassle free for the user. And this is the phase when people are getting familiar with stuff and technology finds its way into the mainstream. Very, very exciting times :)
triggering applications and multimedia content on your computer. It works via RFID stamps, known as "ztamp:s" in the company's on the web
It may or may not happen in 2009, but something I see on the horizon is an explosion of niche social networks. As people amass more and more social connections they'll begin to see and share common interests. These passions can inspire folks to create niche networks, which in turn can attract others with such interests.
Whether it be using hosted services like Ning or WetPaint, or self-hosted apps, (BuddyPress, Movable Type, Drupal, etc.), the barriers to creating and nurturing these networks are falling quickly, and growing them is pretty easy via the social connections people (and companies) already have.
Great post, and excellent discussion!
Data portability in that framework is an intriguing initiative (and a wonderful one) for the individual, but "open data... except export" made me think of a different issue from the perspective of anyone interested in examining (or simply capturing) social data for the aggregate.
Even working with developers to find custom solutions using various APIs, there are limitations (Twitter's rate limit, for example) to exporting or in any way working with the social data of others that's freely available in my stream.
We've seen a few "open" projects popping up to work around these issues (tweetake.com only grabs followers' / followees' most recent tweets; murder.googlecode.com looks like it will be a much more robust version of this, addressing that issue and many more).
Here's to hoping that advances in data portability will also coincide with improvements in working with social data more generally, as so much valuable information exists in the web's social spheres that goes unexamined and under-utilized.
Richard,
My comment about WOA refers to a trend in enterprise applications architecture that makes it easier to extend, scale and integrate. WOA has nothing to do with Google apps. In fact, I do not believe Google Apps are particularly useful in the enterprise. Specifically, I'm referring to the fact that enterprises, and businesses in general, have a problem with a multiplicity of disconnected silos: CRM, ERP, file servers, email, wikis, legacy Intranets, business intelligence, custom apps, databases, data warehouse, etc.
Clearly Google Apps do nothing to solve the problem of:
1. finding/accessing necessary information across these silos
2. making this information from disparate silos and various formats 'actionable' and "shareable" in a manner that enables reuse
The Webtrends DX API for Web Services is currently only available for the Webtrends On-Demand customers. Once we get the software version of Webtrends Anaytics updated to the current capabilities of the On-Demand version, I will see that this application takes advantge of that.Today, however, software customers can take advantage of our ODBC functionality and capabilities to this REST URL application can then also be done in Excel. We have many customers today, in fact, that do just this for special data reporting or even the development of Executive Scorecards.