While CES is raging in Las Vegas, most of us are wondering what Apple has in store for their own annual expo, Macworld, which kicks off a week from now. We've combed through some of the top Mac rumors sites to pick out our favorite Macworld predictions and assigned a percentage of probability to each.
Last year it was the iPhone, two years ago it was the Intel iMac, the year before that the iPod shuffle and the Mac mini. While clearly, not every year is as exciting as the last, Apple always has something in store for us. History would suggest that this year's announcement won't be as earth shattering as the iPhone last year, but one never really knows what the Great and Mysterious Jobs has planned.
We invite you to chime in via the comments about what you think will be announced or unveiled at Macworld next week and, if you'd like, disagree vehemently with what we've written. Let the rampant speculation begin!
An interesting sidenote: I am perhaps the only ReadWriteWeb author who isn't a regular Mac user. But if prediction number 1 pans out, then I see that changing very quickly.
1. An Apple subnotebook - This one has been kicking about for years. The rumor is that Apple will announce some sort of subnotebook (think: 10.4" screen or smaller) that has no optical drive, a solid state drive, and maybe even a multi-touch screen. What lends more credence to the rumor this year, perhaps, is that the market for these small devices is heating up. The Asus EEE PC is flying off shelves and Everex is planning the release of a subnotebook based on the Via NanoBook reference design (Packard Bell is the NanoBook OEM for Europe). As hot as UMPCs are, and even though CNBC claims they're already in production (though, they say it will have a 12" display, which I really don't consider a subnotebook), this one still seems kind of unlikely. I hope I'm wrong, but 45% probability.
2. 3G iPhone announcement - AT&T's CEO says it is coming in 2008, and a 3G iPhone is a no-brainer. It will help Apple meet their initial sales goal of 10 million units by the end of 2008. 60% probability.
3. iPhone 2 - The reason they don't already have a 3G iPhone, according to Steve Jobs, is that battery technology isn't good enough to support it. So if you're going to release a 3G iPhone with a new battery, why not just announce the second version of the thing? The iPhone 2 would have more memory, an improved camera, and built in support for third party apps. These are all things that seem likely in future iterations of the iPhone, so if the 3G iPhone is coming, I think other improvements are likely. 60% probability.
3a. New iPods - As long as we're getting a new iPhone, we might as well get new ipods, right? Well, the iPod product line was just updated in September, so it is unlikely that it will be again so soon. But if there is an iPhone with a larger flash drive on the way, expect the iPod Touch to get the same treatment. A 128 GB SSD iPod Touch would rock. 30% probability.
Mac subnotebook concept image via MacRumors.com.
4. News about iPhone SDK - When the iPhone arrived, Stave Jobs said the Internet was its SDK. That certainly drove the creation of a lot of mobile web apps for the iPhone, and was a smart way to promote the iPhone's great Internet browsing capabilities, but it wasn't enough for many users. That's why Apple is planning a real SDK for the iPhone for February. With Google's Android on the horizon and Yahoo! today announcing an open mobile widget platform, the time seems right for the iPhone SDK. This one isn't really a rumor, so 100% probability that we hear about it at Macworld.
5. iTunes movie rentals - This one also isn't really a rumor. The New York Times sort of confirmed it two weeks ago and we've been hearing about Apple cutting deals with studios for 24-rental downloads via iTunes for weeks now. With Netflix planning a set top box of their own, it makes sense for Apple to bring rentals to iTunes (and Apple TV). This one is 100% probability - all that's left is the details.
6. The future of DRM - DRM is dead, but Apple wasn't invited to the party. Of the 4 major labels that have announced plans to sell DRM-free music, only one (EMI) is doing so with Apple. Universal and Warner are dealing with Amazon right now, and Sony BMG is being whacky and selling their DRM-free download in stores (yeah, I don't get it either). So who knows what the future of DRM at Apple is, but you can bet Jobs will address it with a 95% probability (and 100% probability he'll remind us of his memo to the music industry in the process).
7. Jay-Z and Apple form record label - One of the more fun rumors to crop up in the past week or so, is that rap mogul Jay-Z has joined forces with Apple to start a new record label. One would have to assume that a record label run by Apple would use digital distribution exclusively, which isn't necessarily a bad idea. Jay-Z has his hand in everything, and Apple does always end the Jobsnote with a musical performance... still, 10% probability.
8. New Cinema Display - We haven't had new models since 2004. The longest time between updates since the product line began in 1999. The time seems right for an update, perhaps with official Windows drivers? We'll, but I'll cheat and make this one a push: 50% probability.
9. The return of the Newton - There are many who think/hope/wish/yearn that Apple will release a tablet PC. Their multitouch tech would make for one killer tablet, and people are more responsive to non-PC computing devices now then they were 10 years ago. But there is a problem with this idea: Apple already has a PDA, and it's called the iPhone. So the probability of them launching a larger touchscreen device right now is 0% in my opinion, because it runs the risk of cannibalizing some of the iPhone/iPod Touch market. However, I'll give 40% probability to a touchscreen Macbook.
Steve Jobs photo credit: dfarber
Comments
Subscribe to comments for this post OR Subscribe to comments for all Read/WriteWeb posts
The sub-notebook seems all but certain. Gates indicated that he heard rumors that Apple is working on a "tablet". I assume that Gates rumors equates to fact so I rank that high on the list. A small note book with a detachable bluetooth keyboard could be an interesting design.
I'd rank an updated Apple TV as high on the list and a upgraded MacMini with full-blown Apple TV integration as a major possibility; which means that AppleTV would become an extension to all Mac's.
I'm surprised the iPhone isn't getting more press as the "return of the newton" that keep popping up as a rumor. The iPhone is a PDA for all intents and purposes.
My 'crazy' prediction is a wifi enabled photo-frame that synchs up to iPhoto / Picassa, etc.. Even cooler would be a 5x7 version of the ipod touch. Sign me up.
I'm still waiting for more announcements from Apple to further justify the move from "Apple Computer" to Apple, Inc. I fully predict that we will see more consumer (non-PC) oriented devices out of Apple before the end of the decade. TVs, Camera's, PhotoFrames.
Posted by: eddy | January 7, 2008 3:40 PMThe one thing I most hope for is a MacBook in tablet form. In my industry (IA, consulting, social media) there are many people using tablets successfully and productively, but us Mac users remain with a standard form factor.
Fingers crossed!
Posted by: Stephen Collins | January 7, 2008 5:00 PMI just bought a macmini, so it's a sure bet they'll be upgraded. (My timing always sucks.)
Posted by: Aaron | January 7, 2008 6:08 PMI bet for 3G iPhone announcement.
They need it to enter Japan. They wouldn't be discussing with Softbank and NTT Docomo if they did not have a plan for 3G iPhone in 2008.
Posted by: Jose Miguel Cansado | January 7, 2008 6:19 PMMy predictions are based primarily on desire, wish, vegetable stew and pecans but mostly just on need:
1. AppleTV Next Generation. If anyone can hook the computer, the TV and the modem together, Apple can do it with just one button. I think they know that and have been waiting for the right time. Now is that time. Can't you feel it in the air?You know they really are secretive about stuff and they HAVE NOT SAID A PEEP about it, and thats why I think its their secret weapon. Owning the Music industry with iTunes and the iPod = owning the TV&Movie industry with iTunes and the iTV.
2. iTouch - A newton would be silly if it didn't have a phone in it, and a tablet PC would not make sense either because most people would not understand a useful enough application for the interface. . .yet. It will take a long time to train people on how to use touch. Its likely why the iPhone is limited right now. I think its extremely likely some new laptop or desktop or monitor will have some basic touch capabilities, pretty much exactly the same as the iPhone but with more gestures. The next iPhone firmware is said to have cut&paste so whatever finger movements cause this will likely translate well to the computer monitor too.
3. iRocketboom - I'm still hoping we'll be able to work out the terms before launch next week (I haven't spoken to anyone at Apple yet about it so it it's not completely confirmed) - a daily videoblog network with the top show called Jobs and Woz. It would be kinda like a cross between Diggnation and Gillian's Island, but with some Lonely Girl to boot.
Posted by: Andrew Baron | January 7, 2008 8:13 PMNow, all suggestions here are hardware right now. Apple makes software too! And normaly these are the updates that really rock. (What would be an apple without os X and iLife?).
I remember a speech from Marc Smith from microsoft research at the I-Know, a knowledge management conference in Europe we at the know-center organize every year. He talked about how microsoft incorporates social networking into his products, also into outlook, since email is your most important social communication tool right now, but has no real social support like f.e. support and/or integration of social networks.
Now, as you can also read on read/write web, yahoo and google are planning that to.
Apple has this integration idear, and does a lot with webbased applications and hybrits (so much of iTunes is really HTML, what I heard last WWDC where I was with a student scholarship :)))) ), so I would like to have a Mail witch, I don't know, facebook or this yahoo think integrated ;).
Maybe a better blogging tool in iWeb would be nice. Oh, and I would love something like an RSS creator so I can monitor these really bad forum sites, where they don't have RSS, but an interesting, but RSS ignorant, community I would like to monitor..... (As a softwaredeveloper I somethines think about writing it by myself, but I am afraid that would need to much tome). If there is anythink like that already, please write me an email ;).
Oh, and I like all the other idears about hardware too (especially the thouch screen thing).
Posted by: Jörg Simon | January 8, 2008 2:28 AMWith Warner's recent move to BluRay and Paramount's pending move to support only BluRay, I am expecting:
1) New AppleTV with integrated BluRay player
Posted by: Markdotnet | January 8, 2008 6:28 AM2) Introdcution of BluRay into higher end Mac products
iTunes store: besides movie rentals, more original content/short form stuff should turbocharge the video offering. Apple have been close to announcing more input for independent filmmakers into iTunes on a number of occassions. May finally happen in a big content push.
@jorg: for rss scraping forum sites without feeds, try dapper.com
Posted by: Matt | January 8, 2008 6:41 AMI call BluRay in upcoming Apple products as well.
Posted by: Paul Capestany | January 8, 2008 6:04 PMI think we can expect a iPhone styled touchpad for the Macbook Pro Series.
In other words, two finger controlled touch pad.
Posted by: Johan Ronnestam | January 8, 2008 9:41 PMMy two cents:
- Upgraded Mac Mini
Posted by: Gunnar Lindberg Årneby | January 9, 2008 3:51 AM- Upgraded Airport Express (N-compatible ie)
- Upgraded/revised or even discontinued AppleTV (shelf warmer)
- Something Blu-Ray related. Deal or product.
Not Apple TV...but Apple TV!!!! What am I talking about? 1080p 42" and 46" LCD TVs that ship with OS X, Blu-Ray and built-in Airport Extreme. How hot is that? I'm getting hard just thinking about that. Oh, please Steve...make it so.
Posted by: Jonny come lately | January 10, 2008 9:07 PMCommenting on my earlier comment nr 10.
Qoute from Apple.com
"MacBook Air includes an oversize trackpad with multi-touch technology. You can pinch, swipe, or rotate to zoom in on text, advance through a photo album, or adjust an image. This gesture-based input so successful on iPhone and iPod touch now comes to MacBook."
Posted by: Johan Ronnestam | January 16, 2008 1:07 PM