What's Next After Web 2.0
As the world financial crisis has gotten gradually worse over the past few weeks, I've been pondering what this means for the Web. ReadWriteWeb as a publication focuses on technology - web products and trends - rather than business and VC happenings. So with the exception of one of our feature writers Bernard Lunn, who has written a number of great posts on how entrepreneurs can survive this period, we've generally kept out of the Credit Crisis discussion thus far.
But we're clearly now at a point where the financial problems of the world will have a big impact on where Web Technology is headed. Indeed, it looks like we've arrived at one of those giant inflexion points - where one Web era is usurped by another.
Of course this last happened when Web 2.0 was coined by O'Reilly Media in about 2004. Luckily not long before that ReadWriteWeb was born (early 2003). So ReadWriteWeb has been documenting Web 2.0 ever since. Over the past couple of years, we've been focusing on other, perhaps more meaningful, trends - Semantic Web, recommendation technologies, web sites becoming web services, Mobile Web and more. We've documented these meta trends in a number of big posts, some of which are in our Best of ReadWriteWeb page and copied here:
- Web Technology Trends for 2008 and Beyond
- What's Next on the Web: a ReadWriteWeb Toolkit for 2008
- 2008 Web Predictions
- 10 Future Web Trends
- 10 More Future Web Trends
The Welcome Return of Innovation
Although we'll continue to see the success stories of web 2.0 grow and perhaps prosper - social networking, mashups, user generated content, etc - now is the time for innovation. I'm not stating anything revolutionary there, because it's an old cliche that tech innovation thrives in times of recession. Nat Torkington of O'Reilly Radar put this into the context of web 2.0 recently:
"During boom times, companies direct development and occupy great talent with at best evolutionary improvements over the state of the art. Companies are great chasers of new things, but aren't great at making new things. A recession means technologists cease to be paid vast amounts to duplicate the work of others. The Great Tech Bust of Ought Two gave us 37Signals, Flickr, and del.icio.us and there's a strong argument to be made that many companies spent the next six years chasing what they created."
So we can expect to see a welcome return to web innovation in 2008/09, along the lines of what Flickr and 37Signals created back in the early days of web 2.0. However web entrepreneurs will need to make adjustments due to the economic climate. Many people have already noted that a re-focus on the bottom line of your business is key, which we discuss below. But perhaps just as importantly, as Nat pointed out, there is an opportunity to take more advantage of open source technologies and cheaper cloud computing infrastructure.
Yes Tighten Your Belts, But Open Your Minds Too...
In the past week some high profile VCs have been preaching belt tightening as the primary response to the economy. More than a few people have expressed cynicism about this advice, given the hype and party-throwing days of web 2.0. New York VC Fred Wilson wrote a post today, partly in response to a comment Bernard left on his blog, in which he defends the advice he and other VCs have been giving since the financial crisis got going. Basically that advice has been to batten down the hatches, reduce spending and, in Fred's words, "acting responsibly and making sure we all survive to fight another day".
It's all common sense advice, especially since web 2.0 has been predominantly about consumer apps. I'm certainly no economist, but it makes sense that in a tight credit market consumer spending will reduce - which will impact heavily on consumer web apps, and trickle through to other parts of the ecosystem.
But I'd love to see technologists, entrepreneurs and VCs take a longer term view of this crisis as well. Sramana Mitra wrote a great post at Forbes outlining some of the opportunities for innovation. In an "Open Letter to the Leaders of Silicon Valley", Sramana first gave some background on the innovation that led to web 2.0 and followed up with a challenge to create technology for Education, health care, social security. As an example she wrote about these opportunities in healthcare and education:
"As the smart-phone movement marches on, led by Steve Jobs' iPhone, can we not create seamless bridges between doctors, patients and insurance providers that can reduce the $250 billion expenditure in health care administration?
And on the Internet, can we not create a body of standardized content and methodology for teachers all over the U.S.--or the world--that includes parents in the process and engages children via "edutainment," the same way MySpace and "World of Warcraft" engage kids?"
Tim O'Reilly has been on a similar mission ever since his speech at the Web 2.0 Expo earlier this year, for startups to tackle 'big challenges'. His core message is to "work on stuff that matters."
What's Next... Let Us Know in the Comments!
We at ReadWriteWeb have been covering mainstream web applications and things like health 2.0 this year. But we've only just scratched the surface, just have most startups and Internet companies. As the troubles in the economy begin to affect the tech world, we'll be re-doubling our efforts to document what we hope is an exciting new era of web innovation. There are tough times ahead, but equally there are opportunities.
In the best spirit of web 2.0, let's start by asking you to comment on what opportunities in web technology you forsee over the next year or so. Please leave a comment and let's get a healthy, optimistic - but realistic - discussion started. To provide a bit of inspiration, I've embedded below our stock presentation What's Next on the Web? Web Technology Trends for 2008 and Beyond (circa May 08). Indeed it's time we updated this presentation, so your suggestions welcome!
Note: click here and then click 'full' (bottom right) to view full screen and enable the links inside the presentation.
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Movement towards The Open Mesh
http://blog.broadbandmechanics.com/2008/05/how-to-build-the-open-mesh
http://www.blurb.com/bookstore/detail/350056
Posted by: nickk | October 11, 2008 5:33 PM
I don't see this as the end of 2.0 at all. People want to interact with one another which is the main driving factor of Web 2.0 success. This will continue and will be a need for quite a while. What we will start to see is more mashup type applications where people can entertain themselves and interact, but we should also see more useful apps with mashups so they can accomplish tasks more efficiently.
Posted by: Bruce | October 11, 2008 5:46 PM
Richard,
Finally, people are starting to talk more about how to innovate with education using the best of web 2.0 concepts.
I have been writing about this for a while and recently in my blog talk about a submission of my ideas to the Google project10tothe100 contest.
Check it out on my blog http://worldlearningtree.com/blog
Posted by: Harley | October 11, 2008 5:55 PM
Are we already looking for the next buzzword that will kickstart a new Web bubble?
Posted by: xavier vespa
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October 11, 2008 6:06 PM
simple ... make things people are willing to pay for ... your ability to rely on credit to grow or experiment is limited by a general lack of confidence.
it is not a popularity contest - it is a business "opportunity".
Posted by: Wes | October 11, 2008 8:10 PM
I've said it before, Richard, and I'll say it again: As long as the world remains backlogged on universal broadband access, as long as poverty exists in families and villages that the digital divide remains in vogue, and as long as cellphones are not widespread in developing nations, the concept of Web 2.0 is not going anywhere anytime soon.
Posted by: Ari Herzog | October 11, 2008 8:14 PM
We've come a long way in reshaping how people connect and communicate online, but I'm dreaming of possibilities. I don't know what's next, but I do know what I would like to see soon.
There is definitely room for a better learning/connecting hub. I'm using Flock, Twitter, Nings, FriendFeed, and others. They all have great elements, but I'm wasting so much time going from place to place, signing into different sites.
I'm connecting with peers in Twitter, but I go to Flickr for photos, YouTube for videos, to various nings for Groups, Amazon for shopping, etc., etc.
I want a command center where it's easy to share all kinds of digital media, while being able to chat or microblog. An all in one home base, with Twitter/Flock/Ning/Wiki/Flickr/YouTube elements.
Recently, I tried to create an online Family Network but was frustrated by the lack of any one site that integrates all the parts of my, or family member's, online presence.
Also, my kids participated in the Gifted Kids Network classes, and found the program platform/wiki confusing and limited.
I belong to several nings, and they're terrible for dynamic communication.
So, I definitely see that there will be room to grow in creating a better connected, integrated social media site.
Oh, yeah. One more thing. Can we get someone on developing the Jetsons’ Food-a-Rac-a-Cycle? Now that's something I'd really like to see in the near future!
Posted by: Sandra Foyt | October 11, 2008 10:41 PM
Web 3.0……Web 4.0……Web 5.0……
Posted by: 最新电影 | October 11, 2008 11:19 PM
Maybe we should have at least Web 3.11 ;-)
The next big step is to get money out of it. Independently from the sold ad space.
Posted by: Stefan | October 12, 2008 12:39 AM
We might be stay at the stage of web 1.0 and web 2.0 for a long time.
Posted by: gowers | October 12, 2008 1:17 AM
First things first: There's only one Web. It's the Web of 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008. Versioning (in a technological manner) doesn't make too much sense. It's knowledge and participation of people that changed, changes and will change.
My forecast includes only one main point: Privacy. Yes, people want to interact, they want to communicate, want to participate. But no, people don't want to become demographic sectors once again. Not even if these sectors are pretty small. Behavioural advertising will get into trouble, seriously.
The Cluetrain Manifesto turns 10 years soon: We'll see a broad discussion about its impact. What's been achieved? What's outdated? Why and what hasn't become part of our lives, businesses, and markets?
Smile! Gerrit - We speak Online.
Posted by: Gerrit Eicker | October 12, 2008 2:23 AM
I've been involved in a discussion along these lines with some web pundits of late, and in a nutshell the feeling is that as publishing to the web becomes less elitist and tools become available for EVERYONE to use, then we will be at the point of a new mass media (the 8th) - and that mass media is actually us. I've summarised some collective thoughts here: http://tinyurl.com/5wfet2
Posted by: Fletch | October 12, 2008 2:50 AM
my partner Albert wrote a great post about exactly this topic a few weeks ago called "power to the people"
http://www.unionsquareventures.com/2008/09/power_to_the_pe_1.html
we are particularly interested in "disrupting and improving" education and energy markets
Posted by: fred wilson | October 12, 2008 3:51 AM
Here ye here ye.
Health care, education and finances are all *very* important issue to tackle, but the require a substantial level of data privacy in order to protect people from abuse.
Here's what Passpack is doing about the evolution of privacy:
http://passpack.wordpress.com/2008/10/09/the-evolution-of-privacy/
Real innovations need time to percolate up into the mainstream. A recession gives us time to reflect and develop new concepts. Once the recession is over, market and the technology are equally mature.
Posted by: Tara Kelly | October 12, 2008 4:51 AM
Clearly - global crises would bring more reasons for people to share their thoughts and seek information and advice.
People's life are about to change. Those people are active online. They will use the web to address their needs.
New platforms will be focused on those needs. I think web 2.0 will be enhanced. same as happened for Global Warming issues - but much stronger in fact.
Posted by: Dr. Taly Weiss | October 12, 2008 4:54 AM
Over the past several years, the innovation on the web has really been focusing on creating social value in the consumer space. Driving social connectivity and fueled by ad revenue (or the promise of future revenue), this approach has given us many of the web applications which we all know and love (Facebook, YouTube, Twitter).
Over the next couple years, as the growth in online ad revenue may slow, I expect that we will see a shift towards companies building web applications which are creating real business value within the enterprise. This means either reducing operating costs or increasing revenues.
Much has been made of social networking and Twitter-like applications in the enterprise over the past few months, but these services drive more soft benefits of making your employees more connected (which make it more difficult to measure actual ROI). Value propositions which look more like Salesforce.com will be very attractive to businesses (i.e. for $65/user/month for my Salesforce subscription, I can help a sales rep close 2 more deals). As a company, if I can put $1 in and either save or create $3, that is a huge benefit that I want to realize in both good and bad economic times.
Ben Ruedlinger
http://wistia.com
Wistia, Making Video Productive
Posted by: Ben Ruedlinger | October 12, 2008 6:40 AM
Given that some guy, last July, was able to affect the flight of the airplane he was riding in just by absent mindedly clicking on his wireless mouse, it doesn't take much to imagine terrorists, armed not with box-cutters but blackberries, finding a way to hijack a plane without ever entering the cockpit.
I think security is going to become an increasing concern, especially wireless security.
Posted by: barefootmeg | October 12, 2008 6:44 AM
Technologies have to be sold as solutions that solve bigger problems, what jargon we give it is irrelevant.
Whether its 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 n.0 fundamental is higher value to customers/users. Today a greater responsibility is to do it green.
I think a niw (read new) world is in making driven by nano, intelligence and wireless technologies, read my blog post for more
http://www.kreeo.com/blog/sumeet/The-niw-read-new-World-Bp2
The niw age web will be about productivity apps(that saves time),PaaS and WiMax+utility computing as delivery.
Point to consider is that future growth is from emerging markets and their needs & challenges are very different.
Posted by: Sumeet | October 12, 2008 7:22 AM
Data gathering is going to become easy and natural and then drawing data from what's gathered will be a natural extension of the need to look in detail at it. Soon all information will be available on trends rather than on what people decide to tell the world about within Web 2.0.
Posted by: Baby Diaper | October 12, 2008 10:58 AM
Interesting comments! Let me say this before I address some other points: of course there's only 1 Web. When I say "web 2.0" I mean this current era of the Web, just as we say "dot com" to refer to the previous era. There are distinct aspects about each, just as there will be for the next era.
I hope to see more collaborations between websites. Nowadays everyone are on their own, it would be great to see more of services like www.admatchup.com or other banner exchange solutions, even in fields other than advertisements.
Posted by: abhy | October 12, 2008 1:53 PM
Web 2.0 was brought about by one thing - and one thing alone - XMLHttpRequest. This is what's allowed AJAX to become widely available. And AJAX is what spawned the recent Web 2.0 sites. Because of this wide implementation of the XMLHttpRequest at the browser level, developers had greater tools to work with, and entrepreneurs had expanded boundaries to build their ideas.
I think the next wave will come once HTML 5 and CSS 3 are fully supported on all popular browsers. This will, again, give developers more toys to play with, and expand the boundaries of entrepreneurs.
On another note, I think a great revolution will come once browsers become more alike in the way they handle html/css. As all web developers are aware, the "browser war" does nothing but cause us to waste countless hours making sites look & function properly in all browsers. Sacrifices are almost always made. When this is finally over, we can start focusing on usability and functionality instead of consistency.
Posted by: Jason Palmer | October 12, 2008 2:57 PM
If you're speaking to a developer they will talk all about how web2.0 is all about ajax, big buttons, clean css and tag clouds etc.
Another school of thought says web2.0 is all about user generated content. With this in mind i believe the future of the web lies in finding ways outside of advertising to monetize user generated content.
http://blog.litmos.com/2008/10/how-to-succeed-in-web30-era.html
Posted by: Rich Chetwynd | October 13, 2008 3:18 AM
great entry what next the credit crunch does this spread to the web
Posted by: lawmacs | October 13, 2008 12:48 PM
Though I think that terms like "semantic Web" and "Web 3.0" are overloaded, overused, and don't have a shared definition, I do think that the next era of the Web will represent greater understanding of computers. If Web 1.0 was about Read and Web 2.0 was about Read/Write, then Web 3.0 should be about Read/Write/Understand. Better semantic technologies don't just mean that a computer will have a better understanding of what content we've produced and therefore churn out better search results (though, that's obviously very important!). A computer that can understand should be able to: find us information that we care about better (e.g., smart news alerts), make intelligent recommendations for us (e.g., implicit recommendations based on our reading/surfing/buying behavior), aggregate and simplify information. . . and probably lots of other things that we haven't yet imagined, since our computers are still pretty dumb.
There's actually a conference this week called Web 3.0 in the Silicon Valley, where we'll be addressing some of these issues. Hopefully someone from RRW will be present to check out what's going on in the Semantic Technology world.
Cheers,
Mark Johnson, Powerset/Microsoft Program Manager
Posted by: Mark Johnson | October 13, 2008 2:01 PM
I don't know, it seems Web 2 has only just got with us, and now where talking about what next.
Posted by: Aquarium Fish | October 13, 2008 3:23 PM
I hope that comments become less pervasive, I like reading articles without finding out what fucking morons think of it.
At least get rid of anonymity so people are less inclined to act like rabid jackasses
Posted by: alan | October 13, 2008 3:26 PM
I think the next thing is moving away from HTML and onto more advanced, more flexible technologies; otherwise it's not worth it.
Posted by: Joseph | October 13, 2008 3:27 PM
Hmmm, Im guessing Web 3.0??
www.privacy.de.tc
Posted by: John Roberts | October 13, 2008 3:38 PM
Web 2.0 is here to stay at least for another 10 years, it will not be replaced but merely improved on, just like the way facebook improved on hi5 and myspace.
Posted by: sanimoyo | October 13, 2008 4:13 PM
Many of you agree this is a time for the pause button. Technologically we've been moving at warp speed and need a cool down time to analyze and adjust what we have. This step is crucial in moving forward so we don't make the same mistakes and we don't build upward on a faulty foundation. If a recession is good for anything it is the time it provides to harvest new ideas and to prepare for the next boom in American ingenuity. Imagine what will be invented because of this crisis period. People don’t like to be down, so invent we will in order to prevent this from happening again. And if that means the birth of Web 3.0, then that is what will happen.
Posted by: Madison | October 13, 2008 4:14 PM
This is the progression of Web :
Web 1.0, Web 2.0, Web 2.5 (Semantic Web), Web 3.0, Web 3.5, Web 4.0 (Cognitive Web) .
Posted by: Dharm | October 13, 2008 4:39 PM
I think the current economic situation is a good wake up call, that rabid "Twitter for cats" type copy cats with no business model have not, will not make any sense, certainly not more than the behavior and mentality that started the current crisis in the first place, e.g. get rich quick aka get a startup out quick with no interest in whether the technology will actually make a difference from the consumer's point of view, or from the advertiser's point of view. I surmise that 90% of the apps popping up daily in the gotoweb2.0.net directory will be dead in a few months. Here's my .02:
1. I don't care what you call it, 2.0, 3.0, 10.0, 10.1.4 beta 1 or whatever. I think the next generation technologies will give a kick in the ass of true personalization. I know we heard this before but I don't mean personalization as in slapping a "hi, Dear Dan" type static message, I mean machine understanding/retrieval of user context via a mix of Machine Learning and smart metadata technologies that are able to parse out
Posted by: Dan Grigorovici
|
October 13, 2008 5:42 PM
Because of the global crisis, more and more people are seeking help and advices.
-M from Mexico
Posted by: Kohunlich Mayan Ruins | October 13, 2008 5:44 PM
Good post - I'm curious to see where the web goes because I'm banking my entire business on it. Our company provides training & development software applications for the U.S. Special Operations Military Community. My software architect convinced me to move all our applications to JavaScript and XUL - we're almost there and I'm very curious to see what we can do with them.
Posted by: Jat Thompson | October 13, 2008 6:21 PM
Dan, there's nothing wrong with targeting, contextualisation, or advertising at all. I believe that advertising will be more and more altered to meaningful information. And there will be a lot of "classical (untargeted) advertising" as well (simply because it works).
But: Behavioral advertising, in the meaning of finding out what the customer wants behind his back, will not only face serious trouble regarding privacy issues. It will - and that's the good thing about it - simply not work as it's advertised today. Its effectiveness will fall far behind expectations.
Smile! Gerrit - We speak Online.
Posted by: Gerrit Eicker | October 14, 2008 1:22 AM
Here's my take:
1.There are literally thousands of companies that have not yet embraced/leveraged Web 2.0, to improve their business outcomes.Also, Software as a Service, Platform as a Service, Computing as a Service are yet to take off. And this is where a lot of money is yet to be made.
2.Countries like India are yet to get fully connected.When at least 30 % of South Asia gets on to the Internet (right now it is like 2-3% at best), it is going to drive a lot of internet economy.
3.There is no need for multiple access devices.One personal device- call it a mobile- should be able to do everything. (For people who love big displays, why can't a mobile be used to beam up and create a virtual monitor in front of me?)
4.The Cognitive Web - will it help a person sitting in Iowa do business with a person in remote China or India, without the need for an interpreter? Can they find each other, verify each others' credentials, and engage in a transaction with full privacy and security assured?
5.eHealth records - Today I can do transactions with my bank from any where in the world; my financial data is portable and mostly secure. Why is my health data not portable? If I live in US and relocate to UK, why do I have to take my health records with me in person and on paper?
6.Education - Can I use telepresence and attend Harvard, from Bangladesh?Can I teach a course in Harvard, without leaving my home in Poland?
More later..may be.
Posted by: Kumar | October 14, 2008 5:18 AM
I think the next big thing is Software as service.
Checkout MediaSignage at http://www.MediaSignage.com
Sean.
Posted by: Sean | October 14, 2008 8:15 AM
aggregation (of web2.0 feature based companies and products), federation (of publishers, content, and features), and real monetization strategies - will this shift be the end of the business strategy "someone will buy us"?
Posted by: matt | October 14, 2008 9:37 AM
I think the key really is to "work on stuff that matters."
Posted by: Simon Vallee | October 14, 2008 11:43 AM
Geoweb!
Geoweb = where the digital and physical worlds meet, location based services, GPS, RFID, local media, place-based advertising, etc.
Posted by: Peter Verkooijen | October 16, 2008 5:03 PM
Solar energy and green technology is going to have a huge impact on the next generation of web technology.
Posted by: gotodaily | October 17, 2008 11:11 PM
i really wonder if 2.0 has even been fully exhausted yet??
Posted by: Stop Smoking | October 18, 2008 9:32 PM
It's clear, what's good for enhancing social interaction has a future on the web, whether it's WEB 2.0 or WEB 10.0.
Posted by: escorts
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October 19, 2008 12:22 PM
man is greedy, he looks for more and more new things daily. That's most probably one of the idea to survive on this world. So after Web 2.0, of course it's is Web 3.0 which is almost started now..
Posted by: Social Media Marketing Blog | October 19, 2008 12:33 PM
I miss web 1.0. I want to go back to just seeing some html pasted on single colored backgrounds, no java, no flash, no nonsense. Im not being sarcastic, I hate how web designers had to go and fag up our internets.
Posted by: web | October 31, 2008 3:39 PM