What's Next After Web 2.0
As the world financial crisis has gotten gradually worse over the past few weeks, I've been pondering what this means for the web. ReadWriteWeb as a publication focuses on technology - web products and trends - rather than business and VC happenings. So with the exception of one of our feature writers Bernard Lunn, who has written a number of great posts on how entrepreneurs can survive this period, we've generally kept out of the Credit Crisis discussion thus far.
But we're clearly now at a point where the financial problems of the world will have a big impact on where web technology is headed. Indeed, it looks like we've arrived at one of those giant inflexion points - where one web era is usurped by another.
Editor's note: Looking back over 2008, there were some posts on ReadWriteWeb that did not get the attention we felt they deserved - whether because of timing, competing news stories, etc. So in this end-of-year series, called Redux, we're resurrecting some of those hidden gems. This is one of them, we hope you enjoy (re)reading it!
Of course this last happened when Web 2.0 was coined by O'Reilly Media in about 2004. Luckily not long before that ReadWriteWeb was born (early 2003). So ReadWriteWeb has been documenting Web 2.0 ever since. Over the past couple of years, we've been focusing on other, perhaps more meaningful, trends - Semantic Web, recommendation technologies, websites becoming web services, Mobile Web and more. We've documented these meta trends in a number of big posts, some of which are in our Best of ReadWriteWeb page and copied here:
- Web Technology Trends for 2008 and Beyond
- What's Next on the Web: a ReadWriteWeb Toolkit for 2008
- 2008 Web Predictions
- 10 Future Web Trends
- 10 More Future Web Trends
The Welcome Return of Innovation
Although we'll continue to see the success stories of Web 2.0 grow and perhaps prosper - social networking, mashups, user generated content, etc - now is the time for innovation. I'm not stating anything revolutionary there, because it's an old cliche that tech innovation thrives in times of recession. Nat Torkington of O'Reilly Radar put this into the context of Web 2.0 recently:
"During boom times, companies direct development and occupy great talent with at best evolutionary improvements over the state of the art. Companies are great chasers of new things, but aren't great at making new things. A recession means technologists cease to be paid vast amounts to duplicate the work of others. The Great Tech Bust of Ought Two gave us 37Signals, Flickr, and del.icio.us and there's a strong argument to be made that many companies spent the next six years chasing what they created."
So we can expect to see a welcome return to web innovation in 2008/09, along the lines of what Flickr and 37Signals created back in the early days of Web 2.0. However, web entrepreneurs will need to make adjustments due to the economic climate. Many people have already noted that a re-focus on the bottom line of your business is key, which we discuss below. But perhaps just as importantly, as Nat pointed out, there is an opportunity to take more advantage of open source technologies and cheaper cloud computing infrastructure.
Yes, Tighten Your Belts, But Open Your Minds Too...
In the past week some high profile VCs have been preaching belt tightening as the primary response to the economy. More than a few people have expressed cynicism about this advice, given the hype and party-throwing days of Web 2.0. New York VC Fred Wilson wrote a post today, partly in response to a comment Bernard left on his blog, in which he defends the advice he and other VCs have been giving since the financial crisis got going. Basically that advice has been to batten down the hatches, reduce spending and, in Fred's words, "act responsibly and make sure we all survive to fight another day".
It's all common sense advice, especially since Web 2.0 has been predominantly about consumer apps. I'm certainly no economist, but it makes sense that in a tight credit market, consumer spending will reduce - which will impact heavily on consumer web apps, and trickle through to other parts of the ecosystem.
But I'd love to see technologists, entrepreneurs and VCs take a longer term view of this crisis as well. Sramana Mitra wrote a great post at Forbes outlining some of the opportunities for innovation. In an "Open Letter to the Leaders of Silicon Valley", Sramana first gave some background on the innovation that led to Web 2.0 and followed up with a challenge to create technology for education, health care, social security. As an example, she wrote about these opportunities in healthcare and education:
"As the smart-phone movement marches on, led by Steve Jobs' iPhone, can we not create seamless bridges between doctors, patients and insurance providers that can reduce the $250 billion expenditure in health care administration?
And on the Internet, can we not create a body of standardized content and methodology for teachers all over the U.S.--or the world--that includes parents in the process and engages children via "edutainment," the same way MySpace and "World of Warcraft" engage kids?"
Tim O'Reilly has been on a similar mission ever since his speech at the Web 2.0 Expo earlier this year, for startups to tackle 'big challenges'. His core message is to "work on stuff that matters."
What's Next... Let Us Know in the Comments!
We at ReadWriteWeb have been covering mainstream web applications and things like health 2.0 this year. But we've only just scratched the surface, just as have most startups and Internet companies. As the troubles in the economy begin to affect the tech world, we'll be re-doubling our efforts to document what we hope is an exciting new era of web innovation. There are tough times ahead, but equally there are opportunities.
In the best spirit of Web 2.0, let's start by asking you to comment on what opportunities in web technology you forsee over the next year or so. Please leave a comment and let's get a healthy, optimistic - but realistic - discussion started. To provide a bit of inspiration, I've embedded below our stock presentation What's Next on the Web? Web Technology Trends for 2008 and Beyond (circa December '08).
Note: click here and then click 'full' (bottom right) to view full screen and enable the links inside the presentation.
Comments
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What's next after Web 2.0?
Blogs and "News" sites publishing every other article on the state, nature, and trends of Web 2.0.
Makes me want to take a sh*t 2.0.
Posted by: @B | December 31, 2008 1:30 PM
publishing should be "not publishing"
Posted by: @B | December 31, 2008 1:31 PM
The Depression 2.0, also known as 1929 again
Posted by: Ian D. Nock
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December 31, 2008 2:07 PM
I think a tech 3.0, instead of a 'consumer websites' 2.0. I'd like to see some revolutionary technology usher in the next bubble, instead of just 'new websites competing for eyeballs.'
Posted by: Andrew Leyden
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December 31, 2008 2:12 PM
I think web based businesses that solve real global problems or build social capital in some way will still gain traction in 2009.
Using agile toolsets like Ruby and Erlang plus a fair amount of sweat equity, we found it was literally possible for a small team to launch a scalable global business literally from our spare bedroom without involving investors or expensive consultants.
2009 is the perfect time to start a web based business because there are more niches to occupy when traditional businesses are facing challenges.
Posted by: Paul Spence | December 31, 2008 5:07 PM
Money
Posted by: ben | January 1, 2009 12:12 AM
I think that starting with a feed reader and the goal of eliminating the web browser would be a direction that might produce an interesting product. Something like NewsGator combined with Zotero and Ping.FM. More thoughts here http://tinyurl.com/9lamzw
Posted by: rhhfla | January 1, 2009 5:10 AM
Howabout a world in which a fraction of this stuff even gets used by the mass market?
Other than that, most web services need to become more strongly typed. (Twitter is fun, but it's all syntax. Imagine a similar, semantic, service that understands the verbs, nouns and adjectives that represent your state of mind and presence. Far more useful).
But this is nothing new. Arguably Freebase is just a strongly-typed version of Wikipedia: rather than free text and cruddy little sidebar boxes, the information is broken out into well defined, queryable fields.
That's how the web becomes more intelligent. It's still super dumb now. ("Web 2.0" apps let you put crap in, but it's still hard to get more than crap out.) There's no reasoning in the machine yet.
Posted by: James | January 1, 2009 8:39 AM
"when Web 2.0 was coined by O'Reilly Media in about 2004"
O'Reilly Media dont coined web 2.0!
Read the serie (3 articles at this moment) about the web 2.0 history:
http://www.comentariodetexto.com/series/historia-secreta-de-la-web-20/
An "english " translation here: http://www.cole20.com
Darcy DiNucci coined web 2.0:http://www.cole20.com/who-coined-web-20-darcy-dinucci/
Posted by: Carlos | January 1, 2009 11:23 AM
I believe the recession will come with many fortunate byproducts. One is that the days of low hanging fruit are on hold so many will be forced to work smarter to capture the same revenue stream as before. People working smarter leads to more innovation.
The headache we are experiencing is a result of one word
"Greed" but the cause is shared by big business, big politics and people with appetites bigger than their ability to pay.
Quired has been building a platform for the last 4 years that pays homage to many of the social media innovations of the last 6 years. Our innovation will come with how we engage businesses to use social media and be a part of the sea-change advertising is experiencing.
Posted by: Quired | January 1, 2009 2:04 PM
I never bought into the name of "web 2.0" precisely because lines of questions like "what's after 2.0?" would come up. Version changes imply sweeping removal and replacement of features, but something as large and decentralized as the web and the content thereof is a beast of incremental changes and adaptations.
I find the biggest new mechanism to be that of user-driven content: wikipedia, digg, and the like have given us a remarkably decentralized web. These mechanisms have shown us that there's power in the masses, and I don't see a version change getting rid of this.
But "what does the future hold?" is a fair, and tantalizing question. I'd like to put it a different way: Now that we are starting to see what is possible when the content is placed in the hands of the users, how far can we go? What do users want badly enough to, together, create for one another?
Posted by: Anonymous | January 1, 2009 2:56 PM
Great article. Thanks for the information.
Posted by: Free Xbox 360 Games | January 1, 2009 2:59 PM
Wow, I think you might be onto something here
Jess
www.privacy.de.tc
Posted by: John AMson | January 1, 2009 3:05 PM
If a recession is just the correction of a mis-allocation of resources caused by a boom then now is a good time to hire top engineers and work on big things.
I managed to find an investor through my blog and I'm working on democratizing local news. Starting in San Diego.
http://newsdiego.com.
Posted by: KirkHouse | January 1, 2009 3:08 PM
I'd like to see more education web applications like http://www.ptable.com/. That would really change the way technology is used in the classroom.
Posted by: Lou Scent | January 1, 2009 3:20 PM
Now that both major political parties have easily accessed websites where Americans can publish their views on every issue as they arise, political consultants will able to "crawl" the sites to assess "public opinion" as it develops,Click:
Red and Blue Websites
With US Census information accessable on the Internet anyone can be Karl Rove, Click:
Think Privacy
Posted by: Steve Lee | January 1, 2009 3:31 PM
User Generated Applications that Aggregate Content. Will be the base.
In The form of Applications, That Run on the Desktop, but also use the Internet.
Specialized Browsers that are easy to design and customize and can be done on the fly and with ease.
For Instance, a Program to Browse a site, like Amazon.com that you run when you want to shop Amazon, it has special functions that make browsing Amazon.com better.
Same goes for basically any site, facebook, myspace, email apps, etc. Many People only browse a few sites each day, so the browser can be specialized for them. (individual site + indivual user) at the same time not losing any functionality of the standard web browser.
Browser Extensions are the first tiny stepping stones.
Also These applications allow other users to Modify the way you see the site, you can pick from many users' method and incorporate methods of several users thus generating your own "new method" everything is free, open source, etc.
No More Selling of Software, all software will become free because it is really just ideas, and ideas are free, natural resources (products) and time (services) are the only things which will be sold. Yes time to code software is a service but that fee is paid not by the end user but by the site which makes the money that the programs are written for.
All done in a cool, easy to nagivate, possibly 3d User Interface.
So...
You turn on Computer. OS Boots. Base Browser Loads. Credentials Displayed. Extensions load. (List, Icons, or 3d World, etc, allowing the selections of extension, or "entering" of an Extension) You can leave, come back, etc, your world doesn't change.
Computing will become more like the real world. If you want to read a book (wikipeida) you first go into the library, which has nice things like tables, shelves, to facilitate the way the book (information) is brought to you.
However each person can get the same information from a completely different library that they choose and they can modify and allow others to choose. Same goes for bank etc, Bar/Club, everything.
The library uses their shelves (computer hardware, server side programming) and your arms (client computer) to faciliate everything.
Each Users, "world" will be the same at any computer, and you will return to where you left, or at least each "store/libary/extension" in the way you left it, if you choose that.
I think it can be called Web/World 3(D) or something like that, because 3d Interfaces are the coolest and likely what most users will choose.
Also none of this is to "replace" anything, computers, the web, as they are can stay the same, this is a totally new concept. So the order should be amended perhaps to "Turn On Computer - Selection of OS (standard computer/windows, whatever or go into "3d / lIve whatever" mode.) The The loading, creditals etc.
Check my site, let me know what you think, or if anyone wants to work on this with me. Contact through www.veracrest.com
Posted by: matty fat sax | January 1, 2009 3:54 PM
I think that beyond the web, there is going to be a return to real business, i.e. business where predictable profits are returned to investors. This will be mirrored on the web.
The next phase of innovation will be focused on tools that generate revenue, build sound business models (which can exist outside the world where companies are acquired as the sole payout to investors) and are more real businesses than we currently see.
Only on the web can the Twitter guys lead every article with a quote about not needing a business model right now, can kevin rose say take it easy, its just the internet and valuations be based on $9 CPM, when everyone knows that $1 is more appropriate.
Maybe mobile becomes the land of crazy ideas, but I think that the web is about to grow up.
Posted by: Gogi | January 1, 2009 4:27 PM
I think that one of the big changes for startups would be that those with a cool idea but no real business plan will fail and go away faster.
Thanks for the article. I blogged on Innovation During a Global Recession a few months back.
Posted by: Glenn | January 1, 2009 5:08 PM
The next big innovation has to hurdle over the little thing that we've ignored throughout the entire information age--the question.
Posted by: Bruce LaDuke | January 1, 2009 5:45 PM
Web 3.0 is the web of the handheld PDA/mobile phone
Where not only are you linked as an individual to others through your networks, you are also linked as an individual to your world through sensors in the phone (GPS for starters)
Posted by: Andrew Richardson | January 1, 2009 6:34 PM
World of Warcraft sure is a big thing, but cant it go beyond bashing monsters, earning loot and wow gold?
Posted by: WoW Gold | January 1, 2009 9:55 PM
Arduinos and gardening I should think. Certainly it will be hardware rather than software.
Posted by: Nick Taylor | January 1, 2009 11:20 PM
As Web 2.0 evolves into the next big thing, more Modular Innovation will be called for, from more interoperable web services and data portability to more open standards. I like your overview and see it is a good example of the type of Modular Innovation I have seen emerging and becoming more prominent in the coming year -- so, I am recommending this article to my readers for their Weekend Reading...
http://tpgblog.com/2009/01/02/weekend-venture-capital-exit-modular-innovation/
Jeremy Horn
The Product Guy
http://tpgblog.com
Posted by: Jeremy Horn | January 2, 2009 7:49 AM
There is no such thing as web 2.0 folks, its a flippin' marketing term. Web 2.0 would mean the protocol for http has changed in someway as to provide some sort of upgrade. It hasn't. It's the same http protocol we've been using. Here's the RFC: http://www.faqs.org/rfcs/rfc2616.html
yup, thats right .. still http 1.1
God, I hate marketing people.
Posted by: Biffers | January 2, 2009 8:17 AM
thanks.
Posted by: söve
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January 2, 2009 9:36 AM
I used to be a homeless rodeo clown but now I am a world class magician !
Posted by: FPM | January 2, 2009 2:05 PM
Business Intelligence. The enterprise will increasingly use cloud agents and semantic analytics to better understand their customers, markets, finances, and internal workflows. Companies will engage in behavioral modeling and web meme profiling more aggressively. With diminishing worforce resources due to budgetary constraints, increased investment into automation and intelligent software solutions will give businesses more information and feedback without requiring as many large paychecks. Electronic business workflows, services, and applications will evolve to write more intelligent metadata and semantic subtext into file formats while similarly reporting usage analytics out to dyanamic data streams. All of this data will be sorted by cloud agents, filtered, parsed, and then rendered to rich media layers (eg Flash) for practical visualization and analysis. All documents and file types will evolve to contain more legacy information about who and how the file was created, when & where, who has access rights and to what degree, who has reviewed them and what comments have been attached. Such intelligent files will enable greater and greater usage by both human and cloud agents.
Posted by: chris arkenberg | January 3, 2009 12:34 PM
Very good article.
Here are my personal favs for 2008 -
Rob's Favorites for 2008
Posted by: Rob M | January 4, 2009 6:43 PM
Useful web services for both consumers and businesses.
Mainly in increasing productivity at a low cost.
Posted by: LEADSExplorer | January 5, 2009 3:09 AM
this is good article
I love Web 2.0 :)
Posted by: haber | January 6, 2009 8:17 AM
Your post has on internet marketing is definitely true. Internet marketing has opened new ways of attracting visitors to the website giving the webmasters a way of earning cash as well as web status. Let's see what the future holds for internet marketing.
Posted by: jeff paul internet business | January 15, 2009 1:47 AM
I think web 3.0 is just a marketing term...
Posted by: Colly | January 18, 2009 9:50 AM
I think the tendency goes away from mass into micro-individual. Or, in terms of an example, away from K-mart into Aldi or, away from Chrysler into a Smart. Things are gonna be smaller, tienier and simpler. Over styled website are the anti-trend, functionality (Javascript/AJAX for Enduser) will encrease.
Posted by: Sam | January 18, 2009 8:32 PM