Windows "Collapsing" - 2011 Tipping Point For Web Apps In The Enterprise
Today there's been a sensational claim by 2 Gartner analysts that "Windows is collapsing". In Computerworld, Gartner analysts Michael Silver and Neil MacDonald are quoted as saying that "Microsoft has not responded to the market, is overburdened by nearly two decades of legacy code and decisions, and faces serious competition on a whole host of fronts that will make Windows moot unless the software developer acts." One of those fronts is of course web applications.
Another report from PC World explains that the tipping point where Windows loses its majority market share in the enterprise world could be as soon as 2011!
"The move to server-agnostic applications is still in its infancy but will soon have a major effect on enterprise computing. The legacy applications won't go away, even if the exciting stuff is being done on Internet-based apps, they said. But it won't stay that way. Today, 70 to 80 percent of corporate applications require Windows to run, but the Gartner analysts expect a tipping point in 2011, when the majority of these applications will be OS-agnostic, such as Web applications. "Sometime in the middle of the next decade, Windows will be playing a much less important role on the desktop," MacDonald said."
emphasis ours
This prediction ties in with the latest in Web Office thinking. I predicted in September 2005 that:
"...the time for the web-based office will come, mark my words. When broadband is ubiquitous, web functionality is richer, issues of security and reliability have been put to rest, and most importantly of all - when Corporates are ready to make the jump. It may be 5-10 years down the track, it may be longer."
I stand by that prediction today. In September 2006 Nicholas Carr had an even more specific prediction, saying that in "the early 2010s" we'll see "fully web-based suites".
2011 seems an optimistic prediction for web apps (and other OS-agnostic apps) to usurp Windows in the enterprise, but I'm certain it will be only 1-3 years after that before the cloud becomes the platform of choice for enterprise.
Pic: jurvetson
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Win7 is supposed to be addressing some of this move by more tightly integrating web services with the operating system. There isn't much info about yet, but one example Gates talked about was that wherever you logged on to a Win7 computer, be it your own, your friend's a kiosk, etc, that it could instantly customize itself to you. It'd pull down your homepage, your bookmarks for the browser, your fonts, your UI settings, etc.
Maybe they have something else up their sleeve along the same lines to keep Windows part of the move to server-based computing?
Biggest bs of the century.
I heard a rumour a while ago that the Chinese and Russian civil services might stop using Windows and switch over to some Linux based operating system. That would create a few hundred million Linux users overnight and create a huge incentive for software companies to make their products platform neutral.
Richard:
As usual, Gartner is well behind the times. Paul Graham (who's not as far behind the times) laid out the reason why in his essay from last year: http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html
Those of us who are working in the Microsoft world (or covering it, or investing in MSFT) may be the last to see it, or acknowledge it. But the end has long been in sight, and it is now here.
I have been working for Microsoft, and working with Microsoft technologies, for the better part of the past two decades. It took me almost a year to understand that the statue's feet had crumbled, and the rest of the figure was soon to fall down.
Stavros
It's definitely time for Microsoft to bring out a lite OS - just enough to launch, be configured by, and manage these web services, and provide a place for offline storage.
Yep we all have Apple Macbook Pro's with EVDO cards and live life in the fast lane with Google Reader and Docs while attending the latest conferences.
Sorry but these Web 2.0 pundits are talking a lot of crock.
Cruddy crufty AJAX/Javascript apps does not do it for most users , better cloud integration like Office Live is welcome but please don't make me work in the modern equivalent of a VT100 terminal.
Maybe we should beg steve jobs for OSX on the PC. I know it would make my day
as of now windows is the most secure operation system(apart from the application security read more on application security http://readerszone.com/tips/application-security-is-also-important.html)
but there must be stepes taken towards to lighten the os as well as support for web services.
i think after 4 to 5 years os just be uesd as a terminal for accessing u r data over the fast broadband
like for playing games and movies most people now a days prefer to have console like xbox and ps3
so os must be lighter but the security is also there .
but for the development purpose i think desktop may be there around next 15 years or so
Break up the Company voluntarily, offer fresh stock options, attract the best coders out there, and crush the competition.
Don't forget the Foosball table in the rec room!
It's all overhyped re web only apps. First, we all need fast and secure internet connection, everywhere.
I have nothing against Microsoft. Indeed I think they have done a huge amount to develop the whole computing environment we have today, even if this is just providing a competitor to company's like Apple to spur them on to greater things.
However commenting as an entrepreneur, my business partner and I have buiilt a company without the need for any Microsoft products (except Windows which came 'free' as part of the PC package, but could be replaced). This has not been a deliberate policy, but when choosing services there has always been a better and cheaper option available than what Microsoft is providing.
It could be death by a thousand cuts. No single player will ever probably match Microsoft's breadth of services, but niche players will pick-off and improve every application they offer.
For those interested, these are the 35 services we have used to build our company.
http://www.subhub.com/articles/Free_or_Cheap_Online_Resources_for_Your_Internet_Start_Up
people talking about web only applications like (web office, web collaboration and web 2.0 etc etc) and Gartner expect OS agnostic web applications going to rule the world starting 2011 and no place for windows in desktop
what these guys will use to access those wonderful web applications running on the server, dont they need a bug free wonderful browser in the desktop...can you have only a browser software installed without an OS ; -) (so are they planning to use Linux on desktops)
also using office on web is fine,,but I should have ultrafast broadband to do my work all the time great idea
i am against Microsoft
http://bloggersmosaic.com
I see some misdirected comments, the thrust of this is that the "Death by a thousand cuts" of browser based tools is slowly killing them.
And its Microsoft's own fault, putting all their eggs in their own basket, relying on everything being tied to the Windows operating system, then releasing a total turd ( Vista ) that no one wants.
I say good riddance, ding dong the witch is dead!
I wouldn't count Microsoft out of the game just yet. If you look at how Microsoft has diversified across the different market segments all their eggs aren't in one basket. They also have some very smart people doing some very interesting stuff.
They have started releasing projects under open license ( limited so far) They have focused alot of attention towards the web side of things with the release of wpf, silverlight, and expressions. I think they as a corporation are very aware of the changes afoot and are moving.
Oh yeah and a 40 billion dollar warchest isn't that bad either.
I love gartner the ultimate armchair quarterbacks. Sit back look at old data and make guesstimations. Give me the data and I can make it say anything too.
@Dan Grossman
You mean like .Mac has been doing for years already?
I've written about how the Internet as a platform will spell the end for Windows as we know it, but I think it will take longer than most people think.
I remember programming on a Visual Basic 3 application that was considered 'mission critical' in the year 2000. A lot of companies take a while to get rid of their legacy stuff.
I agree with PC World's assessment. The sexy, fun stuff is done on new web apps, but it's hard to move away from legacy systems. The risk of migrating is enough to diminish any gains in productivity, adoption, etc. of the newer stuff. I think everyone learned that painful lesson with the ERP phenomenon (and it's dismal failure) in the 90's
But it's true, the end is near...
Raza Imam
http://SoftwareSweatshop.com
this reminds me of the poem "Ozymandias". all seemingly invincible giants meet their end when the tides change. this is surely the beginning of the end for MS - who would have thought so 5 years ago.
Irony of ironies, before dumping my PC and moving to the Mac, I wrote a blog post comparing Microsoft to the fall of communism; namely, that an inefficient system was collapsing under the weight of an enormous legacy, and that entropy awaits.
Here is link to full post if interested:
http://thenetworkgarden.com/weblog/2007/03/microsoft_and_t.html
Cheers,
Mark
Great posting, glad to see this information presented.
Yes, the market has shifted to model where the operating system plays a relatively minor role. People nowadays want to use computers to connect with other people. Working on desktop or a local area network accomplishes a portion of this, but Wide Area Networks and the Internet provide a new paradigm where "crowdsourcing" and the "power-of-us" allow large numbers of people from all over the world to participate, share and contribute.
Online project management solutions like Joint Contact allow one to share and manage information without dependencies on desktop. And as the corporate world embraces social networking platforms and mobile devices the value of computing will come from who you can connect to, rather than how you are connected.
Enterprise is getting the picture, I would say 1-3 years is right on target. There are plenty of service providers out there that are all too happy to open up their web apps or offer customized solutions.
There are too many people who will not sacrifice desktop stability or control for web based apps. It is unlikely that internet service will be robust enough, or dependable enough to be relied on for core application functions for many years, if ever.
People who want control, security, and high level privacy won't go.
I think Open Source is more of a threat to MS than Web apps.
OSX Already runs on intel PCS.
SCM on the global cloud? I doubt it. ERP on the global cloud? I doubt it. Internal/Intra clouds with MS software to run it? Highly likely. Windows in its current format may be done but MS isn't.