Participants in the 2009 Semantic Technology Conference walked away considering fundamental questions about what is and isn't semantic technology. The relevance of this post's title will hopefully become clear by the end to those of you mischievous readers who may have stumbled upon it with other ideas. The conference was a great and well-organized affair in San Jose, California. One of the highlights was the Semantic Search Keynote panel, with all of the major players on stage (Ask, Bing, Google, Hakia, TrueKnowledge, and Yahoo!), as seen in the picture below.

Bear in mind that semantic technology can be as heavy and stifling for any audience as stem-cell research can be to high-school students. But Carla Thompson of Guidewire did a terrific job of coming up with discussion topics and moderating the panel. Everyone survived the ordeal without any sign of dozing.

Despite the positive outcome, some responses from the panelists made me wonder if we should go back to the basic question of, "What is semantic search?" Or, better yet, what isn't semantic search? Here is my list:

Structured Data

Folks, semantic technology is not structured data. A database that can, given the query "social drinking," pull up a list of beer brands, their manufacturers, and their contact information has nothing to do with semantics. Some people seem to have the impression that a search engine somehow uses semantic technology if it retrieves structured data for its results. It is a trick as old as the ancient Egyptians who used beats to organize harvesting information. Organized information is not semantic information.

Morphology

If a search engine is robust and returns the same results for the query "top ten" as it does for "top 10" (i.e. it recognizes that "ten" means 10"), calling the search engine semantic would be a stretch. Anyone could come up with a substitution list like this without a drop of linguistic knowledge. Similarly, distinguishing the name "Fisher" from the noun "fisher" by detecting the capitalization of the first letter does not go beyond the application of simple linguistic rules. These capabilities are not semantic search capabilities.

Syntax

A certain amount of semantic information can be salvaged from syntax. Unfortunately, if syntax were enough for us to detect the meaning of text, then an 8-year-old with perfect reading ability (i.e. who is able to syntactically parse strings of English-language letters) could be expected to understand the meaning of Shakespeare's works. The difference between reading and understanding is the difference between syntax and semantics. The former requires the skill to parse things out, while the latter requires vast amount of associative knowledge.

Statistics

An infinite number of monkeys typing on an infinite number of keyboards would eventually come up with the complete text of the Declaration of Independence. This is a scientific statement; it is not a joke. However, if a search engine is expected to be semantically relevant using statistical algorithms, one would have to wait until the monkeys finished their job. Statistics have no place in semantic technology. A simple test would reveal that. For example, your brain is able to understand a unique sequence of words that you have never seen before, such as "Polar bears don't eat alligator eggs before dawn." If semantics were built on statistics, computers and algorithms would not understand this and billions of other sentences.

Scalability

Scalability is the narrow bridge between science and technology. What you can carry from science to technology over this bridge determines the level of capabilities in the real world. The science of semantics is huge and stems from the roots of philosophy. But Web search is a very particular problem with stringent constraints (a narrow bridge). Designing semantic algorithms to drive a Web search engine is like walking on egg shells and requires a completely new approach. Thus, a semantic search algorithm could be very sophisticated but still not suitable for the Web.

These five areas cover what isn't semantic search and should help readers understand the questions that emerged from the Semantic Technology Conference. Structured data, morphology, syntax, statistics, and scalability are key areas to discuss moving forward. Of course, contrary to the title of this post, no one was actually afraid of asking these questions. But if you caught the reference in the title, that was your semantic brain in action, one last example of what is semantics technology.

Looking back at our 2008 Web predictions, we got some of them right! "The big Internet companies will [embrace] open standards" (Google, Yahoo and others did this); "Mobile web usage will be a big story in 2008" (check!); "Web Services platforms will be a fierce battleground" (Microsoft Azure and Google App Engine were released and AWS grew). We also got some wrong, including most of our acquisition picks! Digg, Twitter, Zoho, Tumblr - all remain independent. Not to be deterred, we've made new acquisition predictions for '09... although the names will be familiar ;-)

Richard MacManus

1. iTunes adds social networking features; but it's still a closed development system.
2. Facebook signs up to OpenSocial; whether or not this happens, there's no doubt that Google will continue to collect big name supporters for the various open standards initiatives which it has started in the last couple of years.
3. Yahoo sells to a big media company, but it won't be Microsoft; Yahoo getting bought is a big call and I hope I'm wrong about it - but e.g. I could see the likes of Rupert Murdoch swooping in if things get much worse for the former dot com high flyer.
4. Microsoft releases a cool online version of Office, but then Google releases an amazing new version of Google Docs; Microsoft promised the first bit at PDC '08, but when that launches I forsee it being trumped soon after by Google releasing a more powerful version of its browser-based Google Docs. One that is comparable in user experience (but not features, because that is unnecessary) to MS Word. This new version of Google Docs may be limited to Chrome at first, but it will get a lot of attention and scare the bejeebers out of Redmond.
5. Health web apps start getting attention from mainstream people and media; big breathless profiles from the likes of CNN, Time magazine, etc. Unfortunately health system red tape remains a tangly mess, for another year.
6. Apps that do filtering, inferring and recommendation have a great year; several will release plug-ins for Google Reader, Twitter, Facebook and other 'sipping from the firehose' apps.
7. The usual suspects will remain unacquired in '09: Digg, Twitter, Technorati. The one that does get bought is FriendFeed - by Google probably, given that it was created by ex-Googlers.
8. Media properties prominently experiment with different and innovative types of online advertising; in other words the move beyond CPM starts to actually happen, due to the down economy, after years of CPA type predictions. Related, a stunning new metric will emerge that accurately determines the success of media properties beyond mere page views (ok that one's wishful thinking maybe!).

Marshall Kirkpatrick

1. Lifestreams will continue to evolve; From the explosion of the newsfeed-powered Facebook to the experimental polling technology of FriendFeed, 2008 was a big year for the "lifestream" - the technology of aggregating data from all your activities on different social networks around the web. No one summed it up better than Mark Krynsky in his Lifestream Blog post The Year in Lifestreaming for 2008. In 2009, I'll be watching the parties above, but also MovableType's Motion, social media ping server Gnip, Strands on the iPhone and Chris Messina and friends' new working group on Activity Streams.
2. Facebook will continue to surprise; I love to hate Facebook, but Mark Zuckerberg and company keep bringing me back to a state of...impressed. I wish open standards ruled the world, but Facebook Connect is so compelling that it can't be ignored. I'd like to see Data Portability prioritized a touch above full-blown privacy, but Facebook's relatively tame version of portability is getting real traction while others are stuck in the land of promises and proofs of concept.
3. Big companies will have incentive to give OpenID more support because of Facebook's domination; Support has been relatively tepid in the past. When you're winning, open standards aren't in your interest. When you aren't, they become much more appealing. MySpace, AOL, Yahoo - all have made meaningful moves to support OpenID before, but now that Facebook is clearly dominating them all, I expect to see these companies make bigger moves towards OpenID and other standards.
4. Have cake and eat it too solutions will emerge as a strong option; Have you seen JanRain's RPX plug-in? It lets users log in to a website using OpenID or proprietary methods, like Facebook Connect, through the same interface. It's really pretty, too. There are other examples of this kind of paradigm, but I expect to see them proliferate in the coming year.
5. One or two interface developments will blow us away; The iPhone inspired countless people about user interfaces, unlike anything else has in a long time. Somebody's going to blow our minds again. Information overload alone demands radical innovation, and it's in the works all around the world. Maybe it will be Mozilla, maybe it will be in gaming, perhaps in Adobe AIR, or it could be in Microsoft's Silverlight. May it not be a brain implant.

Sarah Perez

1. Twitter announces they have a plan to make money. They do.
2. New iPhone is released with video recording capabilities.
3. Facebook Connect becomes new de facto way to login to web sites.
4. Google Reader gets themes.
5. Digg still not acquired by anyone.
6. New real-time web app launches that integrates Twitter, FriendFeed & more in ways we never could have imagined.
7. Out of work journalists band together and create some killer blogs.
8. Google Chrome adds plugins...one of them is a Google plugin that lets you integrate Google Mail, Reader, & other Google products/services right into the browser.
9. Netbooks stay hot...get lighter, faster, thinner, but thanks to variable pricing from manufacturers, line between notebooks and netbooks blurs.
10. Google backlash begins.
11. Apple backlash does not.
12. New iPods released...now with VOIP app built-in. AT&T concerned.
13. Professional twitterer becomes a real job.

Bernard Lunn

1. VCs jump onto the SAAS bandwagon, but most ventures don't need the cash.
2. More Indian start-ups go global with price-smashing strategy.
3. 2009 will be like 2002 for raising money or exiting.
4. P2P shows value for reducing cost of server farms.
5. Consumer and regulatory backlash make online privacy into a key differentiator for major players.

Frederic Lardinois

1. Digg still won't be bought.
2. Twitter will start to embed advertising into its users streams as it slowly becomes mainstream.
3. Google will finally offer a comprehensive online storage solution and some kind of travel product.
4. Lifestreaming apps like FriendFeed will remain niche products that only serve the early adopter market.
5. Streaming web video to the living room will go mainstream.
6. If Apple finally enables its push server, mobile social networks and geolocation enabled apps will become a major topic next year.

Lidija Davis

1. Google loses goodwill, Yahoo gains.
2. Microsoft resurrects WebTV after buying out Netflix.
3. Mixx concentrates on usability and starts gaining ground on Digg.
4. Facebook has one security incident too many, leading to a decline in popularity.
5. The value of having a unified system for data portability and single sign-in services becomes unmistakable after a significant privacy breach.

Sean Ammirati

1. Twitter will be acquired (probably by Facebook--but multiple suitors will compete for the deal).
2. Due to new leadership and a slow economy that has people more focused on their professional network, LinkedIn will grow in the public's consciousness and more importantly grow their revenue dramatically.
3. Exciting new open source projects will emerge and grow due to a growing number of un/under employed engineers.
4. Unfortunately, Facebook Connect authentication will become dominant method for authentication on the web (while this is my prediction, I'm still rooting for a more open solution).
5. Microsoft will launch a competing platform with Apple's App Store. The reaction from the market will be underwhelming.

Alex Iskold

1. Twitter is going to continue to grow and eventually get acquired, while Facebook is going to see further decline.
2. Amazon will further strengthen its position in the cloud computing market, by launching more of its Web Services and gaining more clients for existing ones.
3. More contextual browsing technologies will hit the market powered by improved top-down semantic recognition engines.
4. The browser wars will further heat up, with Google throwing marketing dollars and distribution deals behind Chrome.

Rick Turoczy

1. With the economy continuing to tank, Microsoft will double-down on its Facebook investment, garnering more control of the company - and more access to the data being gathered through Facebook Connect.
2. Google will finally solve the issues that have prevented its adoption of OpenID logins for all Google services. That, combined with EAUT, will make Gmail accounts the de facto login credential on the Web.
3. One of the major gaming platform companies - Nintendo, Sega, Sony - will begin acquiring small iPhone development shops in an effort to translate titles to the iPhone format and to corner the market on iPhone gaming.
4. Under pressure from iPhone, Android, Symbian, and RIM; Windows Mobile will attempt to reinvent itself. Unfortunately for Microsoft, it will be about as successful as Vista and the Zune.
5. eBay - the Yahoo! of 2009 - oscillates between break-up and acquisition. After a great deal of drama, it will eventually be acquired by Amazon and incorporated into its seller storefront offering.

There you have it, the picks of the ReadWriteWeb team; what about your predictions? Let us know in the comments, so we can check who among us all has gloating rights at the end of 2009.

After asking some of the Web's brightest minds to predict the future of social media, Peter Kim compiled Social Media Predictions 2009 [PDF]. One of the predictions is by Chris Brogan who believes that 2009 will bring an end to the fight over a single sign in system.

Moving beyond OpenID, we'll have a sliced profile for social networks that will carry both our full profile plus the ability to break out specific segments for specific sites. I might not share my passion for beer on my church network, and I might not want to bring religion to my business social network.

There will be some kind of "one ring" profile that will allow data pass through to the various places that use it. The reason this hasn't happened is that each company wants to own the database on the back end. Someone's going to win in 2009.

Ionut Alex. Chitu talks Google in 2009

From the blog that watches Google's attempts to move your OS online, Alex Chitu offers 16 predictions for Google in 2009. Here are our favorite three:

• Google's search engine will lose a significant amount of market share as Live Search's position will consolidate.
• OneGoogle - a new interface that merges all Google applications so you can quickly switch between Gmail, Google Calendar, Google Docs without opening a new tab or losing your work.
• GrandCentral will be publicly available in the US and the interface will integrate with Gmail.

Dave Kellog Advises Corporate Bloggers to Get Real

Dave Kellogg, CEO of Mark Logic, suggests that many corporations have latched onto the blogging phenomenon as a means to regurgitate their standard corporate messages. Blogging this way doesn't work and if you're considering doing it - don't. As a CEO who has been blogging for over three years, Dave's words are well worth noting. His blogging style is also well worth emulating.

Dave's recommendations:

• If you're going to make a corporate blog, go real or go home.
• There is no point in ghost-written or PR-written blogs.
• In my view, corporate blogs shouldn't exist. If you want a corporate blog, go find a few corporate bloggers instead.
• Encourage those bloggers to write openly and honestly about your industry.
• Let them ramble off-topic once in a while. You might discover something.

Om Malik: Tip'd Could Be a Daily Destination

Cautiously optimistic, Om sees great potential in the online community Tip'd, the site that brings together the best news on the Web relating to all things finance.

From Om's post:

I find 3-5 headlines that grab my attention each day, of which maybe two are worth reading. Rarely do I find an article I would archive, as truly quality content is sparse. But this is a new service (it had 100,000 visitors in November, according to Compete), so I'm willing to be patient.

If it can get itself embedded into the financial blog ecosystem the way Digg has plugged in the tech world, Tip'd could become a daily destination.

Matt Mullenweg wants Blog Posts to Become More Interactive

Talking with Robert Scoble about Twitter and FriendFeed, Matt talks about the addictiveness of instant gratification, and how he's looking forward to real time RSS and more interactive blog posts.

This is a partial transcript of the interview (at approx 03.33):

What I love about those two platforms is the instant gratification. You get that instant hit where people are replying to you right then, or you can drive a couple of hundred people to a link within 30 seconds. I think what they've done beautifully is the coupling of the writing and the reading.

RSS is fantastic but it's a pull in technology. It's not real time. And so for years people have been talking about making RSS real time. I think that I'd like to get to a point where Twitter and FriendFeed are mechanisms for this, where blog posts become a lot more interactive. Like when you do a blog post, there is no reason that as many people that see your Twitter within the first five minutes shouldn't see your blog post in the first five minutes. But how it works now, is I go to my Google Reader twice a day and I see your new post - you don't get that hit that we're all becoming addicted to.

The complete video can be found here.

Duncan Riley: The Year of the Uber Blog and New Media

Duncan predicts that Uber blogs, blogs that combines different content streams into one large blog with one primary top level URL, will explode in 2009.

In 2009 big will be better. Not big networks of many sites, but big blogs that break out of the narrow niche focus that has been typical of commercial blogging until now, and instead go wide in content but focused on one brand and one URL.

The rise of the uber blog will also mark the beginning of the time new media starts to surpass old media.

Pew Internet and American Life Project: The Future of the Internet 2020

Rather than making predictions for 2009, the Pew Internet and American Life Project canvassed Internet specialists for their take on what we can expect in the year 2020.

Some of the predictions: The mobile phone will be the primary tool for connecting to the Internet; Voice recognition and touch technology will become more common, and Internet architecture will improve not by starting over, but by next-generation engineering of the network.