Meeker analyzes technology trends and gives research-dense, high energy presentations at conferences like O'Reilly and TechWeb's Web 2.0 Summit. Last year she discussed research finding that use of the mobile web will surpass use of desktop browsers, globally, within 5 years. How prominent is Meeker? Sarah Lacy, who has covered the Silicon Valley VC market for years, puts it this way at TechCrunch this morning: "As an analyst, Mary Meeker was as famous in the dot com glory days as [Kleiner's John] Doerr was as a VC, so it's appropriate and seemingly a long time coming that the two would wind up as partners."

Let's hope that not everyone at the firm famous for funding world-changing companies like Google and Amazon sees as their number one goal funding companies like the makers of Farmville. Perhaps it really is just about the economic growth, though, and all those other investments made the world a better place only as an afterthought. On the other hand, the socio-psychological meaning and impact of Zynga will likely be the subject of years of academic study; maybe that will do the world some good.

Meeker's research for Morgan Stanley has long been a favorite for web startups to use in their fund raising presentations. Whether Meeker will continue publishing as prolifically, presenting at conferences or speaking as a seemingly non-partisan analyst on the field remains to be seen. Her position as one of the most powerful women in technology clearly remains unchanged.

Below, highlights from Meeker's last big presentation on the growing importance of Mobile, as selected by ReadWriteWeb's Audrey Waters in coverage this Spring.

The report delves into everything from mobile use to media consumption and PCs to social networking. The takeaway, says Forrester, is that Gen Y "lives and breathes" a digital social life, Gen Xers are masters of the functional benefits of technology, but those older are much more reserved in nearly all areas.

"In almost every online or mobile behavior, Gen Yers lead the adoption curve," explains Forrester, summarizing the differences between the generations. The youngest members of this group don't remember life without a mobile phone or a time when texting or email was unavailable. Gen X, despite having a longer "tech memory" than its younger counterpart, still rivals Gen Y in many areas. This slightly older group tends to use the Internet and computers more functionally. For example, 26% of Gen Xers go online for information about food and cooking, 61% use it for news, 65% use PCs to manage photos and 53% email photos at least once per month.

Boomers fall behind on the technology adoption curve, but spend more money on everything tech-related from telecom fees to online shopping purchases. Seniors, however, lag ever further behind. 80% still subscribe to a local newspaper, for instance. But in other ways, they're catching up: 40% own an HDTV, one in five uses the Internet for reading news and one quarter for travel planning.

Devices: Gen X Leads

When it comes to devices - think HDTVs, digital cameras, PCs, gaming systems - Gen X leads the way, says Forrester. Their households are the most likely to have these devices in them.

When it comes to the household PC (meaning "personal computer" not necessarily "Windows machine"), Gen X and Boomers tend to use theirs for practical matters like word processing and household finances. They're also more focused on PC health, regularly scanning for malware and backing up files.

Mobile: Gen Y Leads

Meanwhile, on the mobile front, the 49 million Gen Yers lead the other generations, using their phones for everything from product research to social communication. Along with Gen Xers, Gen Yers are the most likely group to own a smartphone with an unlimited data plan. One fifth of Gen Y uses their phone for maps and directions now, while Gen X is generally more interested in checking news, sports and weather.

85% of Gen Y sends and receives text messages, while 68% of Gen X does the same. Only 15% of Seniors use SMS, however.

37% of Gen Y surfs the mobile Web. Mobile "Facebooking" is also more popular with Gen Y, with 27% participation, compared with 18% of Gen X. Seniors on Facebook, supposedly a growing trend on the desktop, is not so prevalent on mobile - only 1% use Facebook or other social networking sites from their phone.

Overall, 23% of Gen X and Y owns a smartphone and 17% of Americans do.

Online: Gen Y Surfs, Gen X and Boomers Shop

Internet use has surpassed TV viewing for Gen Y for a few years now, but this is the first time that Gen X can say the same. Younger Boomers (45-54) also now spend equal amounts of time online versus on the Web. TV viewing still beats Web surfing for older Boomers and Seniors though.

The survey found, too, that Gen X does the most online shopping, but Younger Boomers spend the most. In fact, Boomers were the only generation that spent, on average, more than $600 online in the past three months.

Forecast: eReaders are "Device of the Year," but Few Use

Forrester says that eReaders have drawn a lot of hype over the course of the year, but in reality, only a small percentage of the population currently uses them. However, the analysts forecast that another 6.6 million will buy an eReader by year-end. 8.3 million will buy a netbook or mini PC, though, in the same time frame.

Netbook and mini-PC purchases will outpace eReader sales until 2014, when both slow to 1% growth rates. Laptops will also decline to 2% growth in 2014.

This data seems in opposition to earlier reports from NPD that stated netbook sales have gone negative. This recently led to some controversy when the Wall St. Journal quoted Best Buy CEO Brian J. Dunn remarking on the netbook's decline, saying its sales have been cannibalized by the iPad. Dunn later explained, by way of a Best Buy press release, that "the reports of the demise of [notebook and netbook] sales are grossly exaggerated." It appears that Forrester agrees with this statement, given this new report's data.

Conclusion: Gens X & Y Outpacing Others

Forrester concludes that Gens X and Y are "setting the example of how future digitally native generations will live," with both generations "outpacing Boomers and Seniors on almost everything technology-related."

Statements like these tend to rile up the tech-savvy Boomers and Seniors who read this blog, often leading outraged comments about the wrongness of the data. In this case, though, Forrester analyzed 30,064 households containing 37,226 individuals to reach these conclusions, a sample size which seems sufficient enough for this analysis. Any generation will have its outliers, of course, from the digitally-adept Grandma to the Gen Yer who refuses to Facebook. Plus, anyone reading this article is at the top of the curve, no matter what the technology in question is, we would bet.

Image credit, top: flickr user Paulo Fehlauer; charts: Forrester

As a result of this new data, the analyst firm upgraded AT&T's stock from "Neutral" to "Outperform" (a buy rating) noting that the stock would retain its position even if Verizon gets the iPhone next year, as many industry insiders expect.

As for iPhone users in particular, Credit Suisse found that only 18% would leave AT&T when their contract expired - that is, sans termination fee. While that's more than the 9% of AT&T's subscriber base who plan on switching when their contract is up, it's still a lower number than many would have expected.

Chaplin determined that the AT&T exodus to Verizon would end up costing the network around 1.4 million subscribers, while boosting Verizon's new subscriber count from 2 to 4 million - this assuming, of course, that the mythical Verizon iPhone turns out to be real.

AT&T iPhone Satisfaction: Not as Horrible as We Thought

Meanwhile, iPhone users are slightly less satisfied with AT&T's service overall than the subscriber base as a whole: 51% of AT&T users are satisfied with the service, but only 42% of iPhone users feel the same. However, that's still a much higher number than previously imagined.

In fact, this data seems somewhat in opposition to the market research data released just last month from Morspace. According to their survey of 1,000 customers, 34% of AT&T iPhone owners are waiting for the iPhone to become available on another carrier before upgrading their handset, and 47% are considering switching to Verizon. When technology news site TechCrunch reported this news, it said: "When AT&T's monopoly on the iPhone ends... it's not going to be pretty."

But which is it? Forty seven percent of iPhone owners will go to Verizon? Or only 23%?

For what it's worth, Credit Suisse isn't the only firm to upgrade AT&T's stock as of late. MarketWatch also noted that Deutsche Bank analyst Brett Feldman upped shares to a buy rating in July, saying that concerns about the potential loss of iPhone exclusivity have been "overblown."

At the moment, all this news is much to-do about nothing, given that the Verizon iPhone exists only as a rumor, not as an official proclamation from Apple. That being said, it's still somewhat startling the number of everyday people I encounter who have taken the rumor to heart, telling me they're "waiting for the iPhone to come to Verizon" before getting one. The rumor has been around long enough that people believe it's a tried-and-true fact.

We'll have to wait until next year to see if that's actually true.

According to Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi, Apple could sell 25 million iPads in 2011. Barclays Capital, meanwhile, predicts 28 million tablets will be sold in 2011, with Apple owning the majority of that market for several years.

Meanwhile, only yesterday, Barclays Capital was estimating similar numbers for the tablet industry: 28 million units by 2011 and Apple holding onto a 75% market share throughout next year.

New Estimates Much Higher Than Earlier Ones

What's interesting about both these predictions (and, as always, analysts predications are taken with the proverbial grain of salt around here), is how much higher they are than the earlier estimates that came out around the time of the iPad's launch.

In February, we rounded up the current analyst estimates and, at that time, firms were predicting unit sales of 3.75 million to 9 million for FY 2011. Specifically:

• Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer: 4 million units in FY 2011
• Scott Craig, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: 3.75 million in FY 2011
• Keith Bachman, BMO Capital: 5.5 million units in FY 2011
• Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital:  7.3 million in FY 2011
• Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray: 8 million units in FY 2011
• Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley: 9 million units in FY 2011

How does one get from (the arguably decent) showing of 3.75 million units in FY 2011 to the (somewhat earth-shattering) figure of 25 million+?

Part of that jump may be attributable to the iPad's in-roads in the enterprise. As reported yesterday by our own Alex Williams, Well Fargo took two years to support the iPhone, but approved the iPad in the span of a few weeks. And Mercedes is thinking of purchasing iPads for its 350 U.S. dealerships.

But enterprise sales alone can't account for what's clearly a seismic shift in the personal computing landscape. Perhaps it's like Steve Jobs, Apple CEO said: tablets are leading the way to the "post-PC" era (And of course by "tablets" he meant "iPad"). Jobs wasn't just referring to the death of Windows computers, either, but to the very form factor our generation has grown up knowing as "the computer." A box, screen and keyboard, which then became the flip-to-open notebook and later its tiny sibling, the netbook. And while many of us can't personally imagine life without a hardware-based keyboard, the majority truly "personal" computing can be done on a touchscreen alone. Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, email, Web surfing and everything else that occupies a good bit of people's non-work related computing time rarely requires the amount of keyboard input that necessitates the additional hardware.

For many mainstream computer users, the iPad suffices.

Yahoo! Reveals iPad User Base is More Gender-Balanced...and Much, Much Bigger

Recent findings from media company Yahoo! support the claim of iPad's growing mainstream popularity: the company today revealed a follow-up to its early reports on the iPad user base, an analysis based on visits to Yahoo! network properties. As expected, the first wave of iPad users skewed heavily male, as is often the case when new tech gadgets arrive on scene. But now, the gender ratio is more balanced, moving from a 2:1 to 3:2 male to female ratio. The company has also seen a 7x increase in the number of users visiting Yahoo! services via the iPad, another indicator of the device's popularity for the above-referenced "personal" computing. And given the more balanced mix of iPad users, interest in other Yahoo! properties beyond Flickr, News, Finance and Sports has also increased. Yahoo! Groups, for example, is up 28%, Shopping is up 25% and Travel is up 22%.

On a personal note, we didn't need analysts to tell us the iPad would be a hit: the first weekend with the device had us convinced: the iPad is the first real family computer. But to see numbers now associated with the phenomenon is still impressive.

He hasn't disclosed what he's going to do next yet, but his so-far brief career as probably the most social-media savvy member of the relatively conservative analyst industry offers a rich snapshot of how this important part of the business world is changing. Owyang has already played a big role in changing it.

How The Analyst Industry Works

If you're not familiar with how the analyst industry works, here's a very short summary. Companies brief analysts on their plans, the state of their businesses and the products they are bringing to market. Some companies pay the analyst firms to have a two-way conversation and get advice from the analysts. Then the analysts write up information-rich reports about some important business trend or another, based on all the briefings they've done. They sell those reports for hundreds or thousands of dollars to consumers wanting to benefit from all the research performed by the analysts.

There are professional analysts for every kind of business you can imagine, and for every step of the process of doing business. There are hundreds of practicing analyst firms doing business in the United States, with some variations on this basic business model, but most are very small "boutique" shops. The analyst market is dominated in almost every sector by one name: Gartner.

In a distant 2nd place, but also far bigger than almost anyone else in the analyst market is Forrester. That's the company Jeremiah Owyang just announced he's leaving after nearly two years of leveraging the company's huge reputation and the emerging communication technologies called social media, to make himself a fast-rising star.

How Jeremiah Owyang Works

Jeremiah Owyang came to Forrester as a blogger and he leaves even stronger in that role. Despite a grueling travel schedule, a rigorous report writing regimen and constant briefings with companies large and small, he's one of the most prolific leading voices in the social media blogosphere.

"My use of social media and my career advancement are intrinsically tied," Owyang told us by phone today. "I started my blog as a practitioner at Hitachi. I budget time every morning to read and blog. I do that before I check my personal email or work email. I believe you have to pay yourself first. When you open your email you pay someone else, because it's usually people reaching out to ask you for something. Taking the time to read blogs, synthesize and add value, that builds your community. That's paying yourself first."

Whenever a major initiative is launched by a large software vendor or a controversy erupts around best corporate use of emerging online communication tools, Owyang strikes fast with a blog post at his site Web Strategist, explaining complex matters in ways that marketing staff can use to talk to their executives.

Over the years he's created a number of valuable resources that lead people to return to his blog again and again; most prominently a running list of live-streaming online video services and a regular digest of "people on the move" taking new social media-related jobs in corporate communication departments.

More than 100,000 unique visitors come to his blog each month - that's more people than visit competing analyst firms Gartner and IDC's websites each month, combined. His skilled use of Twitter has built him a readership of more than 50,000 followers. That's unprecedented visibility in social media conversations for a professional analyst. While analysts have traditionally stood apart from the messy fray of democratic conversation online, Owyang is a leader in a new trend of engagement and broader listening. His success has brought new visibility and customers to Forrester and inspired hundreds of other analysts to join that silly-sounding social network, Twitter.

Owyang has received some criticism as well. Some other analysts said his relative inexperience was also amplified by his high-profile in social media circles right along with his strengths. It's also not clear how close a connection there is between being high profile and landing big clients. That's hard to judge from the outside.

The voices praising Owyang's work are more numerous than the critics, though.

Carter Lusher is an analyst analyst, if you will. The husky-voiced man from Portland, Oregon co-owns a firm called Sage Circle, a two-analyst shop dedicated to tracking changes in the larger analyst industry. They aim to help Analyst Relations departments in corporations learn how to engage effectively with the analysts who are influencing customers whom those companies then seek to sell to. Lusher is bullish on Jeremiah Owyang.

"We call Jeremiah the poster boy for effective analyst use of social media," Lusher says. "And he was a very good analyst; he is very conscientious and does his homework."

That homework became most evident when Owyang stepped away on occasion from the rapid-fire chatter on Twitter and the fast-reaction blog posts he puts up on his personal site.

This Spring Forrester published a particularly prescient report titled "The Future of the Social Web," edited by Jeremiah Owyang. Less than 20 pages long, the report was based on interviews with 24 companies ranging from Google and Facebook to Cisco, Dell and this site, ReadWriteWeb. The entire report (retailing at $499) is a valuable read for customers seeking an informed view of the future of social networks, online identity and commerce. Our favorite passage reads as follows:

"... in a bid to extend the reach of its new browser, Chrome, we expect Google to build OpenID and its associated friend connections into the browser; look for Firefox and eventually Internet Explorer to copy this feature. Facebook and MySpace will also likely build a way for users to surf the Web within the Facebook experience, retaining the social functionality. These connections won't be perfect, but they'll allow social networks to colonize communities and other parts of the Web, extending their experience out to other sites through the shared ID. As a result, in two years, portable identities will become a ubiquitous part of the online experience as they reach maturity."

Less than four months later, Owyang announced he was leaving Forrester for a new project not yet disclosed.

Why Jeremiah Left Forrester

Owyang's next move will remain a mystery until next week, but he has offered some clues about what he'll be doing. "I will be spending more time with less clients and be practicing more," he told us.

"My passion is to help companies communicate with the web," Owyang says. "That's my background. I think companies can be improved because they have these communication channels with their customers. They can build better products, reduce resources and have happier customers. That means the world will be a better place."

The desire to return to active practice instead of analysis was one of the reasons that Carter Lusher guesses Owyang was motivated to leave. Another is money. Lusher estimates that Forrester paid Owyang between $125k and $175k per year. That's not a lot of money for the responsibilities involved, and it's just a fraction of the revenue Owyang was likely contributing to Forrester's coffers. Dividing the company's reported revenues by the estimated number of analysts on staff brings the average revenue per analyst to between $650k and $750k per year. That's the average and some analysts are no doubt bringing in far more. That number is almost twice as high as that of industry leader Gartner, another firm that experiences top staff departures with noticeable frequency.

Lusher says it's not at all unusual for rising stars in hot markets to decide to venture out on their own and try to capture more of that revenue directly. It's also understood by the firms, he says, that this is how it goes.

The same day Owyang announced his departure was very successful enterprise analyst Ray Wang's last day at Forrester. Forrester rock star Charlene Li left last year and struck out on her own. Do these departures mean trouble for Forrester? "Not really," Lusher told us. "They acquired Jupiter Research last year largely because they had a very strong social media practice. They have a very strong team."

Of course not everyone who rocks leaves. Many people in every field produce far more value for their employers than they receive in pay. In that the analyst world isn't unique. "Many go out and find out that it's a lot of work being an entrepreneur," says Lusher. "That's why a lot of the smart people stay at the firms."

Enterprise blogger Dennis Howlett addressed these issues in his coverage of Owyang's departure as well. "Changes in the compensation model may help retain the next rock star analyst but somehow I doubt it," he wrote yesterday. "The analyst firms are going to have to get used to their brightest and best viewing the analyst bench as but a stepping stone for greater things. That has to impact the business model and quite how the firms respond remains to be seen."

Owyang has decided to leave and will now take his strong personal brand, greatly strengthened by his time at Forrester, with him. "I recommend anyone who gets a chance to be an analyst," he told us today.

When he departs, it's not as if he'll be taking social media away with him. Forrester is already looking to fill his position - including with a Twitter account @forresterjobs. What Owyang will do next with his skills and whether his replacement at Forrester will bring the same social media success to the firm remain to be seen.

Photo CC by Frédéric de Villamil on Flickr.

Titled "Open source is not a business model," the report challenges some long held beliefs about the technology business. Not everyone is happy with the 451 Group's conclusions, either.

451 says in writing the report it "analyzed the business strategies of 114 open source-related vendors, including open source specialists such as Red Hat and Alfresco, and those for which open source is used more tactically, such as IBM and Oracle."

The resulting 71 page report is being sold for $3750 and our requests for press access have not been replied to by press time. (Perhaps writing in complete sentences would have helped, we hadn't seen the price tag when we sent that email!)

However, there is a lengthy summary available on the blog of 451's Matthew Aslett where we can glean some of the report's conclusions.

The analysts found that while the majority of open source vendors now use some kind of commercial license (meaning it's not free anymore) when they distribute their software, half of them develop at least some code as "out of sight" property. And although both of those steps increase development costs - they are making more money in the long run as a result.

While people often discuss a limited number of open source business models, like support, hardware sales, etc. the report discovered "over 80 different combinations of development model, vendor licensing strategy and primary revenue trigger being used today by the vendors we analyzed."

While 70% of the companies surveyed offer support services to their customers, that's only a primary revenue stream for 8% of responding firms.

The open source business world sounds very different from what many of us on the outside of it have thought. In fact, Aslett writes that "There is very little money being made out of open source software that doesn't involve proprietary software and services." Aslett concludes that open source is a business tactic, not a business model.

The very definition of open source has been up for debate for some time, but these numbers put an interesting spin on that discussion.

But What About the Dream of Free and Open Software?

Aaron Fulkerson, founding CEO of the fast-growing open source enterprise wiki provider Mindtouch, says that the 451 report is right on the money. Open source has been essential in Mindtouch's efforts to build a community of developer evangelists, but it's no longer the be-all-end-all. Because the company's code is open to developers to work with, discuss and more sophisticated bug reports on, Fulkerson says, it has build a loving community that spreads awareness of the company's software for it.

In the end though, while Mindtouch used to sell only support contracts - now it sells software. "In the end, everyone is selling software," he told us. "[But] You have to create product pull. Open Source Software is the easiest way to do that. I entered this all ideological 3 years ago swearing that what I'm saying now is bullshit. But it's true." Three years ago Fulkerson was hiring a Bono look-alike to draw attention to the company at DEMO, so he's really tried a wide range of things to create that "product pull."

Not everyone sees it that way, or is willing to accept the 451 Group's conclusions. Marcus Estes of open source development shop OpenSourcery contests the report's premise and says that a long tail of purists is doing serious business.

"I question their use of the term vendor. It's certainly untrue that 'The majority of open source vendors utilize some form of commercial licensing to distribute, or generate revenue from, open source software.' Every time a freelance Drupal hacker makes a copy on a web server of the codebase, they're a vendor. And that means that in terms of numbers, small vendors outnumber the enterprise vendors by perhaps 10,000 to 1.

The long-tail of open source vendors is a force to be reckoned with - there are now thousands more opportunities for small businesses to provide software services around open source software than there were 5 or 10 years ago. And together, they're taking a bite out of the bigger, proprietary vendors.

The model is clear: custom development and support. No proprietary licensing necessary. We're a purist open source shop and we're growing 100% year upon year. Looks like a business model to me."

Estes has certainly got the religion and in absolute terms he may very well be right. His is a small design-centered shop, though, and enterprise scale vendors may be a different animal and a different conversation.

What do our readers think? Is pure open source a viable business model or have those heady days largely passed, replaced by a more complex time of blended business strategies for monetization?