But what about now? This is the time to be audacious. The world has changed, totally and irrevocably. Change is the entrepreneur's friend.

I call these Micro Trends. They are not the big obvious trends that everybody is riding - such as mobile, online advertising, search, social networking, globalization etc. If you spotted those 10 years ago, great. Now it is too late. Think surfing. If you see the wave building early on, you get a chance to ride it. If you catch it too late, you get crushed.

How Does The Last Few Weeks Change This List?

For some time I have had a list of Micro Trends on my personal blog. It seems a good time to revisit them to see what might change based on the global credit crisis.

1. Transparency. This wave has been building for a while, but it just got a big boost by recent events. Transparency in financial markets obviously. Then there is Obama's Google for Government initiative. Some of the smartest recent startups we have seen use a mix of technology, insight and hard work to expose the inner working of industries to eliminate information asymmetry and get lower prices for buyers. You can bet that there will be more.

2. Relocalization. We have already written about this here. Tough times will accentuate this trend. The solutions are not obvious (so Momentum VC won't touch them), they could be game changing.

3. Reduced power of gatekeepers. This relates to Transparency. Reduced information asymmetry reduces the power of gatekepeepers/intermediaries/tollbooths. The Financial Services industry is the mother of all gatekeepers. The Economist states that in the early 1980s, the financial services industry accounted for 10% of GDP, but last year it rose to 40%. One change arising from the recent turmoil we can be totally confident about is that the current financial services intermediaries are weakened and new models will arise. Who will do a craigslist on the financial services industry (or at least segments of that vast industry)?

4. Micro-trend Slopes replace Chasms. Alex Iskold started an interesting conversation about whether the Internet has made the Chasm adoption model less relevant. Biking up and down slopes may be the better analogy today. Catch a new trend and you can cruise down a slope, picking up speed effortlessly. As trend-spotting me-too ventures join the race (the Internet spreads ideas instantaneously) the slope flattens out and curves uphill. In good times, a bit of pushing gets you over the top and catching another micro trend slope on the way down. If your up slope coincides with a cyclical down turn (and we are certainly in a big cyclical downturn today), you will get a flat tire and have to carry your bike up the hill and mend it at the top. Don't worry, the other racers will have given up at that point. Starting in a cyclical downturn, make sure you are on a down slope!

5. Changing balance of power between big and small businesses. Yes we have been "banging on" about this for a long time. For the most long-winded description (sorry), read this. This could be the biggest micro trend, even a Tsunami that few people have spotted. Which the current crisis just accentuated. Which the incoming President might actually do something positive about for a change.

6. Self-organizing networks beat command and control structures. This is the story of Enterprise 2.0 - aka, social media meets the enterprise.

7. The end of mass markets. This relates to most of the other trends. Small, niche, specialist will beat mass produced. This is why Etsy may be a big winner from this Web 2.0 cycle. There are probably other opportunities around this trend.

8. Ad $$$ will flow to measurable ROI models. OK, that falls into the no-duh category! But surely Google Adwords is not the only winner in this category? There must be a better ad targeting model out there somewhere? Not better search, you can just use Yahoo Boss for search - that game was totally over well before the credit crisis. But better ad targeting that does not infringe privacy is a big winner.

9. Bubbles will form and pop faster. Bubbles are like booze. With a horrible hangover we say "never again". But guess what.... They don't reappear in the same place until a generation that was bruised has moved on. So the big bubble may be a thing of the past. But we will get lots of small ones. That is kind of like moderate drinking, actually quite good for us. My motto is "moderation in all things, including moderation".

10. The end of 11 point lists. I used to do 10 point lists until a commenter showed me this wonderful Spinal Tap video. Seriously, 10 point lists indicated limits and space on the Internet is unlimited. But then I noticed many people doing 11 point lists. In the spirit of back to basics discipline, 10 point lists will make a comeback.

Image credit: Thomas Hawk

See also: What's Next After Web 2.0

Dot Coms 2.0? Say it Ain't So...

Maybe we are all just fooling ourselves. When the Internet bubble started to burst in March 2000, most people were saying "that's them crazy Dot Coms, not us". Gradually, it was all of us who were in any way associated with technology.

After 18 months, in the summer of 2002, everybody had capitulated. You could buy shares of Rational Corp (the leading supplier of software tools after Microsoft, bought by IBM) for a valuation of $1 billion when they had $1 billion in the bank and $1 billion in revenues (oh, yes, and a couple of bad quarters which made it obvious that nobody would buy software ever again). You could walk into a VC with a patented machine to turn mud into gold and be greeted with a sceptical "but what if gold falls in value?". You could prove that your $50k software would have $500k savings to a company within 6 months and the response was still "we will get back to you". The technology nuclear winter was very, very cold.

So maybe it is coming again in the technology business. No more funding, no more deals, no more parties. Maybe the hangover is coming.

Innovation Economy Still Thriving

But it does not look that way from what I am seeing. VCs are saying that their companies are doing well (and not all are hyping their portfolio). It also coincides with what I am seeing from companies that I know well. Companies are either growing revenues or getting more funding or doing both. I have interviewed two founders at the Web 2.0 Expo in New York that have broken into profitability. Even if VCs run for the hills they will be fine. These upstarts are taking business from higher cost alternatives.

I have also heard first hand of big deals from large companies awarded to small, young ventures. And I have seen large enterprises that are working on large social media rollouts.

This is not good for big tech companies. But it does look good for small, low cost, agile upstarts. The smart companies have worked out how to reduce risk for clients. What's the risk of implementing Basecamp or Zoho?

I call this the "innovation economy" and that is a tad worrying. It sounds like "New Economy" and we all know where that ended up. I did not want to say the "technology industry" as huge parts of the tech industry now simply follow economic cycles. The fortunes of Microsoft, Oracle, Dell, HP, IBM, Cisco tend to rise and fall in line with global GDP. Bigco is not the heart of the innovation economy.

Shift in Power to Smallcos

It is more likely to do with a fundamental secular shift in power from large business to small business. The Internet and Coase's law would be the theoretical underpinning for that. Something dramatic may have quietly happened, making the playing field not just level for start-ups vs incumbents, but tilted in their favor. It might have something to do with the tools that enable you to run a global business with all virtual operations and almost no infrastructure cost. You can simply scale faster and cheaper than your incumbents.

Conclusion

The market mayhem this week has been unprecedented, far worse than even my worst imaginings and I was thinking it was going to be bad. So this is bad. It will spill over into everything. Many parts of the Web 2.0 industry will be in trouble, specifically those with dependency on consumer advertising or financial services.

But the gritty entrepreneurs are building value and getting profitable and have better opportunities than ever before to get their case heard. VCs who keep their nerve will do enormously well, just as they did from deals done in the 2002/2003 era.

What do you think? Is it tough times for all? Or tough times for the slow and good times for the fast?

Image credit: Thomas Hawk

So the next stop is the "middle 20". These are publicly traded web technology stocks with a market cap over $1 billion. In our analysis below, more than half have a PEG below 1.0, which tends to signal "bargain opportunity" to investors. (caution: of course that is only a starting point for analysis, there could be some real dogs in there). Check out this chart:

So, it is official - there is no bubble in public Internet stocks. There might be in private valuations, but that is almost impossible to analyze accurately without access to hard data on late stage VC valuations.

Anecdotally, it does look like private valuations are higher than public valuations. That is a very odd reversal of normal market rules and will create problems at some stage - the shares have to be sold to somebody who will pay a higher valuation.

A reminder to participate in our weekly poll, about the top Internet companies:

Far from it. These are great times for entrepreneurs. Really. This is not our bubble. We had our bubble and it burst in March 2000.

This is a credit bubble, pure and simple. That has far, far bigger implications for the economy than a stock bubble. So the recession is real. It is only a question of how long and how deep and my guess would be on the side of long and deep.

But equity valuations are fine. A very conservative investor friend who manages money on an asset allocation basis - choosing between bonds and equities - is pushing into equities. There are of course pockets of excess - please don’t tell me all the stocks you see that are overvalued, I know thats true - but broad markets are in reasonable value shape.

Nor are VCs going hog wild; sadly, because those days were fun :-) Sure there is a bit too much money at work, but that's good. VCs sure as hell remember the bubble and the burst. It is their “cousins”, the Private Equity (PE) guys, who've just had their bubble - fueled by the credit markets. But while VC and PE may sound the same to an entrepreneur - hey they are all money guys right? - at a more fundamental level they are on opposite sides of what is a very big battle.

The battle is around something which few people like to talk about in start-up circles. It is the big unmentionable, like sex for Victorians. The unmentionable is zero sum game. Yes, in an economy growing at 3% if we are lucky and zero or less if we are not, the dollars you earn come from another business. Economists call it “creative destruction”. People who work at newspapers call it a “disaster”. Entrepreneurs coming in like barbarians at the gate call it “window of opportunity”. Established companies and - this is the point - their PE backers, call it a possible negative externality which might impact Q4 earnings to the extent that they go near their debt covenant ratios. Or in other words, “I missed that barbarian with my boiling oil and he is now over the wall and wreaking havoc and oh my god there are so many of them….”

The first wave of barbarians were bad enough. They at least talked the same language of margins and profits. It is firms such as Craigslist and Plenty of Fish that really worry the bejesus out of people, as they are happy to take massive volume at ridiculous prices; which in a digital world where additional users are virtually zero cost and all the rewards go to the firm that gets the network effect, is totally sensible, rational economic behavior. More rational than chanting phrases learned in MBA classes like a mantra to ward off evil spirits.

But we are in recession, and that does change the game for entrepreneurs. In particular it changes the game for entrepreneurs banking on consumer advertising dollars. Advertising gets cut in a recession. Always has in the past and will do so now. There is a strong belief in start-up circles that the shift from traditional media to online is such a huge shift that it opens up an opportunity that is “big enough to drive a truck through”. Yes we are still in the relatively early days of this massive shift. But recessions lead to irrational behavior as much as bubbles and that can mean some short term pain.

More importantly, recessions have a way of changing behavior that lasts into the recovery and next boom. From that change of behavior, new companies and new industries are born. Pay Per Click, a more cost effective form of advertising, and offshore outsourcing, a way to cut legacy costs, both got their momentum going in the last recession.

Online CPM is like traditional media advertising. It is a traditional media model grafted onto online services. Which is like the talking heads in the early days of TV mimicing Radio. CPM is “faith based advertising”, you cannot measure the return. We will always have CPM but the prices will crash. Facebook ads going for 12.5c per CPM is one straw in this wind. Those low prices are OK when it costs so little to acquire the eyeballs, so these low prices are sustainable and may become the “new normal”.

Think about that. Right now there are new companies and new models that are below the radar screen that will emerge as major powerhouses in a few years and they will be radically different from what's out there today. Thats kinda cool. Kinda scary too.

In a recession, the winners are able to make one of these two propositions:

1. I will get you new revenue for a variable cost that is lower than your current cost of revenue acquisition. Note, that does not mean invest a lot of money now in the belief that new revenue comes in. It means, your current cost of revenue is 30%, I will deliver you that revenue for 25%. Guaranteed, no revenue = no fee to us.
2. I will cut your costs now. Not, in 12 months, maybe, if it all works out. I will cut it now, this month, no investment needed. We are talking hard costs, external vendor costs, not fire a bunch of people to get the return; the latter is also popular in a recession but takes longer and is more painful and may also harm the business, who knows when it is muscles not fat that is being cut. But if you are replacing another vendor it is simple; “they cost you $100,000 per month, we cost $80,000 per month and I can prove that we are at least as good”.

Those are not easy things to deliver on, but if you can deliver on them you will win. If your start-up proposition is marginal, burning cash and the VCs are not calling, well it could get a bit messy. But if you have one of those propositions you can build a phenomenal business in a recession and there plenty of VCs willing to bankroll you to get there - if thats what you need.

Who do you see out there who can deliver what customers want in a recession?