caucus
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Using the Web to Predict the Next President: So Far, 50/50
Yesterday, we wrote that if the web were an indicator of political results, Ron Paul and Barack Obama would likely be squaring off in the US presidential elections next November. But with the first state contest out of the way, it looks like the web was only half right (any maybe didn't have much to do with it at all). Obama, who was in a statistical tie with Hillary Clinton and John Edwards according to pre-caucus polls, convincingly defeated his rivals. Paul, however, finished fifth -- exactly where he was polling (I incorrectly used his national poll average yesterday as his Iowa poll numbers), and still no where near the winner, Mike Huckabee, who collected 34% of the vote to Paul's 10%.
Web Crystal Ball: Obama and Paul Will Win Tonight
The use of social networking and web-based organizing tools in politics has been a major story over the past year (in fact, we named it as our 6th most important story of 2007). Tonight, when a number of Iowans gather to decide who they think should represent the two major US political parties in the upcoming presidential election, we will begin to see if all that web campaigning paid off.
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