"They will drive 200 miles to see you sing. They will buy the super deluxe re-issued hi-res box set of your stuff even though they have the low-res version. They have a Google Alert set for your name. They bookmark the eBay page where your out-of-print editions show up. They come to your openings. They have you sign their copies. They buy the t-shirt, and the mug, and the hat. They can't wait till you issue your next work. They are true fans."

This is interesting given the Nine Inch Nails release. As commenter Shannon Clark pointed out, very quickly the limited edition signed $300 "super deluxe" package of the new NIN album sold out. While clearly Trent Reznor is working with more than 1,000 true fans at this point (especially considering the "super deluxe" edition was limited 2,500 copies), the same concept is at play. Because his true fans came through for him, whatever else happens, Reznor will likely profit from the Ghosts experiment.

But how hard it is to find those true fans? Reznor had the benefit of a long career backed by major labels that help push his music out to a wide audience. There is an interesting debate raging in the comments of yesterday's NIN post about whether any artist has ever gone from obscurity to mainstream success without help from a major label. Of course, Kelly says mainstream success isn't necessary, with work you can connect on a more local, personal level with your true fans.

I've actually seen this happen up close with a friend of mine who plays music in a rather obscure genre. By doing things like playing free house shows, blogging on MySpace and Facebook, having email and IM conversations with fans, inviting fans to help in the process by doing things like copying CDs and designing case inserts, etc. he has made sure he stays connected to his true fans. The fan base he has cultivated, albeit small by record label standards, ensures that there are enough people who will buy every new CD he puts out and come to his shows and drop $30 on t-shirts and stickers that he can continue to pay his bills.

This is also essentially the same theory employed by music startup Sellaband (our coverage). The web site implores music acts to generate $50,000 from "believers" -- usually in the form of $10 donations from 5,000 true fans. Any band that reaches that goal gets studio time to record a full album and distribution via the site and other retail channels.

Kelly's blueprint for long tail success works because he is talking about goods that you sell directly to your fans. Alex Iskold wrote last year how that blueprint won't work in the blogosphere. Because most blogging is ad supported, and because advertising is based on volume, a small number of true fans won't cut it.

However, though Kelly's argument may not apply to those looking to make money directly from blogging, blogging is probably a good way to make connections with and create a base of true fans. So even though you can't make money directly in the long tail of blogging, as Iskold said, perhaps you can use blogging in the long tail to cultivate a base of fans to make money via other methods (i.e., by selling books or booking speaking engagements).

Kelly is using the PDF Ads for True Films 3.0. Kelly calls the use of the ads an experiment. "If it works with you readers to the same degree that ad-supported blogs have, it is not hard to imagine thousands of books being released for free with ads on the side," writes Kelly on his blog. "To some in publishing this prospect is the end of the world. The final stake in the heart of good old books. Ads-in-books specifically have been a bogeyman too horrible for them to even think about. [...] I am more pragmatic. I actually like the Google contextual ads on Cool Tools. They bring up choices I would have never encountered, yet they are fairly unobtrusive until you are looking. Why not do the same for books?"

But there are a couple of major obstacles to PDF Ads that I see in this initial iteration. The first is that the ads are opt-in. Because Acrobat Reader needs to connect to Adobe to download the ad content, it first asks for permission (the PDF files are scanned by Yahoo!'s content matching system before you download them, so the Yahoo! robot isn't actually scanning a file on your computer, but it will try to connect to Adobe each time you open to the file to attempt to download the most up-to-date ads). Will people really opt-in to view ads? Hardcore supporters of the author might, but since they're paid on a per click basis, if the people clicking on the ads are only doing so out of support for the author, isn't the advertiser losing out? That's not going to likely be high quality traffic.

The other major hurdle is that the content matching sucks. While reading True Film 3.0, I didn't see one ad that had anything to do with film or documentaries or even the subjects that any of the documentaries being reviewed were about. Instead, the ads were about unrelated things like travel and real estate -- they looks more like broadly purchased defaults (low paying inventory filling ads) than actual contextually matched advertisements. In order for PDF ads to warrant any notice from readers, they'll have to get a lot more relevant.