2008 Year in Review

In case you missed our 2008 Year in Review series in December, here's a re-cap of the posts we did -- and you can find these and other top stories in our Best of ReadWriteWeb page.

• Best LittleCo of 2008 & Most Promising for 2009
• Best BigCo of 2008
• RWW Live Special: 2008 Year in Review (RWW Live is our regular podcast show: subscribe in iTunes)
• Top 100 Products of 2008

The Top 100 Products of 2008 was comprised of the following 10 lists:

• Top 10 Semantic Web Products of 2008
• Top 10 International Products of 2008
• Top 10 Consumer Web Apps of 2008
• Top 10 RSS and Syndication Products of 2008
• Top 10 Mobile Web Products of 2008
• Top 10 Enterprise Web Products of 2008
• Top 10 Real World Web Apps of 2008
• Top 10 Digital Lifestyle Products of 2008
• Top 10 Alternative Search Engines of 2008
• Top 10 Web Platforms of 2008

That was 2008, let's now turn our attention to 2009...

2009 Web Predictions

At the beginning of the new year, we posted our annual predictions post, in which the ReadWriteWeb authors look forward to what 2009 might bring in the world of Web technology and new media.

check out our predictions for '09 and please contribute your own in the comments to that post.

iTunes Goes DRM Free

The first week of January is Macworld time. While this year's conference had no major product announcements, Apple announced that by the end of this quarter, all 10 million songs available on iTunes will be DRM free [Digital Rights Management]. As of today, 8 million songs will be DRM free, with the other 2 million done by end of Q1 09. This is long overdue, especially considering that Steve Jobs wrote an open letter to the music industry in February 2007 asking them to abolish DRM. Since that time, many of Apple's key competitors have gone DRM free or have significantly loosened the restrictions - Amazon in September 07, Rhapsody in June 08, Yahoo Music in July 08, and Walmart in October 08, to mention just some. So it's great to see the market leader in online music, Apple, actively killing off DRM too.

Also from Macworld: Apple's iWork Goes (Partly) Online

Twitter Security Collapses; Obama, Fox and Britney Accounts Hacked

The start of 2009 brought a major security scare for one of 2008's top web products, Twitter. Days after a wave of phishing attacks fooled thousands of Twitter users, another security hole was found. Obama's account, unused since election day, sent out an affiliate link to a survey with a gas card prize, Fox News said that "Bill O'Reily is gay" and Britney Spears' account made a lewd post about her anatomy. Rick Sanchez, the Twitter loving CNN anchor, says he's "high on crack and might not be coming into work today." Twitter eventually said that the issue had been resolved, but that users should change their passwords.

Did Google Just Expose Semantic Data in Search Results?

In what appears to us to be a new addition to many Google search results pages, queries about birth dates, family connections and other information are now being responded to with explicitly semantic structured information. Who is Bill Clinton's wife? What's the capital city of Oregon? What is Britney Spears' mother's name? The answers to these and other factual questions are now displayed above natural search results in Google and the information is structured in the traditional subject-predicate-object format, or "triples," of semantic web parlance.

SEE MORE WEB PRODUCTS COVERAGE IN OUR PRODUCTS CATEGORY

A Word from Our Sponsors

We'd like to thank ReadWriteWeb's sponsors, without whom we couldn't bring you all these stories every week!

• Mashery is the leading provider of API management services.
• Crowd Science gives you detailed visitor demographics.
• Rackspace provides dedicated server hosting.
• TaxACT lets you file your taxes online.
• Babylon is the world's leading dictionary and translation software.
• Strands provides real-time recommendations of products.
• WildApricot is Membership Management Software.
• DEMO09 is the launchpad for emerging technology.
• MediaTemple provides hosting for RWW.
• VisualCV lets you stand out from the crowd when job-hunting.
• Eurekster is a custom social search portal.
• SixApart provides our publishing software MT4.

RWW Jobwire

January Kicks Off With Cool Hires in Tech

The economy is depressing but there's no shortage of cool new individual hires in tech to report already this year. Mozilla, Dell, AOL Sports and some of our favorite startups have picked up new engineers and executives this week. The biggest tech job news of the New Year, though, may be that Lifehacker's long time editor Gina Trapani announced yesterday that she's leaving her position.

Check out some of the young year's first highlights in tech hiring as reported by our site Jobwire below. Jobwire is sponsored by VisualCV, which is a service for job seekers. Jobwire reports on 10 to 15 completed new hires in tech and new media every weekday.

SUBSCRIBE TO READWRITEWEB'S JOBWIRE FOR THE LATEST NEWS ON JOB HIRES IN TECH

Web Trends

RWW Live: Running a Startup in a Down Economy

In the first RWW Live of 2009, we tackled an issue that is of vital importance to all startups right now - how to navigate through the choppy waters of the current economy. The ReadWriteWeb authors were joined by entrepreneurs from BrightKite and Zoho, two startups that were recognized by ReadWriteWeb in our annual end of the year awards: Zoho won 'Best Little Co' and BrightKite won 'Most Promising Little Co'. In the podcast they had some excellent advice for startups, which you can listen to below and read about in our post-show round-up.

Download MP3

Brave New World: More Digital, Less Physical

Alex Iskold writes: "Yesterday, I was with my wife in the L'Occitane store. The shelves were filled with fragrances, soaps, lotions: all sorts of handcrafted beauty products. It occured to me while looking at the labels that I have no idea how these products were made. I am reasonably versed in chemistry, but the process of manufacturing perfume is not something I know anything about.

In general, I am just not good with physical things, because I am a software person. I've always been fascinated by people who can easily make sense of physical objects, because for me it takes a lot of effort even to put together children's toys. My brain is wired differently, to see patterns in software, not in hardware. But most people are the other way around."

Report: Apple Dominates the Mobile Web

SEE MORE WEB TRENDS COVERAGE IN OUR TRENDS CATEGORY

Enterprise

Report: Cloud-Based Email Cheapest Option for Most Companies

A new report from Forrester presents a cost analysis of cloud-based email systems in enterprises, such as Google Apps or Yahoo!'s Zimbra. In the report, Forrester argues that cloud-based email services are cheaper than running email on-premise for all companies with less than 15,000 employees. What's more, Google Apps is significantly cheaper than both on-premise solutions and other cloud-based email services - even for very large enterprises. This could spell trouble for Microsoft, as we explain in this post.

Email us if you're interested in writing for ReadWriteWeb's Enterprise Channel.

SEE MORE ENTERPRISE COVERAGE IN OUR ENTERPRISE CHANNEL

That's a wrap for another week! Enjoy your weekend everyone.

Looking back at our 2008 Web predictions, we got some of them right! "The big Internet companies will [embrace] open standards" (Google, Yahoo and others did this); "Mobile web usage will be a big story in 2008" (check!); "Web Services platforms will be a fierce battleground" (Microsoft Azure and Google App Engine were released and AWS grew). We also got some wrong, including most of our acquisition picks! Digg, Twitter, Zoho, Tumblr - all remain independent. Not to be deterred, we've made new acquisition predictions for '09... although the names will be familiar ;-)

Richard MacManus

1. iTunes adds social networking features; but it's still a closed development system.
2. Facebook signs up to OpenSocial; whether or not this happens, there's no doubt that Google will continue to collect big name supporters for the various open standards initiatives which it has started in the last couple of years.
3. Yahoo sells to a big media company, but it won't be Microsoft; Yahoo getting bought is a big call and I hope I'm wrong about it - but e.g. I could see the likes of Rupert Murdoch swooping in if things get much worse for the former dot com high flyer.
4. Microsoft releases a cool online version of Office, but then Google releases an amazing new version of Google Docs; Microsoft promised the first bit at PDC '08, but when that launches I forsee it being trumped soon after by Google releasing a more powerful version of its browser-based Google Docs. One that is comparable in user experience (but not features, because that is unnecessary) to MS Word. This new version of Google Docs may be limited to Chrome at first, but it will get a lot of attention and scare the bejeebers out of Redmond.
5. Health web apps start getting attention from mainstream people and media; big breathless profiles from the likes of CNN, Time magazine, etc. Unfortunately health system red tape remains a tangly mess, for another year.
6. Apps that do filtering, inferring and recommendation have a great year; several will release plug-ins for Google Reader, Twitter, Facebook and other 'sipping from the firehose' apps.
7. The usual suspects will remain unacquired in '09: Digg, Twitter, Technorati. The one that does get bought is FriendFeed - by Google probably, given that it was created by ex-Googlers.
8. Media properties prominently experiment with different and innovative types of online advertising; in other words the move beyond CPM starts to actually happen, due to the down economy, after years of CPA type predictions. Related, a stunning new metric will emerge that accurately determines the success of media properties beyond mere page views (ok that one's wishful thinking maybe!).

Marshall Kirkpatrick

1. Lifestreams will continue to evolve; From the explosion of the newsfeed-powered Facebook to the experimental polling technology of FriendFeed, 2008 was a big year for the "lifestream" - the technology of aggregating data from all your activities on different social networks around the web. No one summed it up better than Mark Krynsky in his Lifestream Blog post The Year in Lifestreaming for 2008. In 2009, I'll be watching the parties above, but also MovableType's Motion, social media ping server Gnip, Strands on the iPhone and Chris Messina and friends' new working group on Activity Streams.
2. Facebook will continue to surprise; I love to hate Facebook, but Mark Zuckerberg and company keep bringing me back to a state of...impressed. I wish open standards ruled the world, but Facebook Connect is so compelling that it can't be ignored. I'd like to see Data Portability prioritized a touch above full-blown privacy, but Facebook's relatively tame version of portability is getting real traction while others are stuck in the land of promises and proofs of concept.
3. Big companies will have incentive to give OpenID more support because of Facebook's domination; Support has been relatively tepid in the past. When you're winning, open standards aren't in your interest. When you aren't, they become much more appealing. MySpace, AOL, Yahoo - all have made meaningful moves to support OpenID before, but now that Facebook is clearly dominating them all, I expect to see these companies make bigger moves towards OpenID and other standards.
4. Have cake and eat it too solutions will emerge as a strong option; Have you seen JanRain's RPX plug-in? It lets users log in to a website using OpenID or proprietary methods, like Facebook Connect, through the same interface. It's really pretty, too. There are other examples of this kind of paradigm, but I expect to see them proliferate in the coming year.
5. One or two interface developments will blow us away; The iPhone inspired countless people about user interfaces, unlike anything else has in a long time. Somebody's going to blow our minds again. Information overload alone demands radical innovation, and it's in the works all around the world. Maybe it will be Mozilla, maybe it will be in gaming, perhaps in Adobe AIR, or it could be in Microsoft's Silverlight. May it not be a brain implant.

Sarah Perez

1. Twitter announces they have a plan to make money. They do.
2. New iPhone is released with video recording capabilities.
3. Facebook Connect becomes new de facto way to login to web sites.
4. Google Reader gets themes.
5. Digg still not acquired by anyone.
6. New real-time web app launches that integrates Twitter, FriendFeed & more in ways we never could have imagined.
7. Out of work journalists band together and create some killer blogs.
8. Google Chrome adds plugins...one of them is a Google plugin that lets you integrate Google Mail, Reader, & other Google products/services right into the browser.
9. Netbooks stay hot...get lighter, faster, thinner, but thanks to variable pricing from manufacturers, line between notebooks and netbooks blurs.
10. Google backlash begins.
11. Apple backlash does not.
12. New iPods released...now with VOIP app built-in. AT&T concerned.
13. Professional twitterer becomes a real job.

Bernard Lunn

1. VCs jump onto the SAAS bandwagon, but most ventures don't need the cash.
2. More Indian start-ups go global with price-smashing strategy.
3. 2009 will be like 2002 for raising money or exiting.
4. P2P shows value for reducing cost of server farms.
5. Consumer and regulatory backlash make online privacy into a key differentiator for major players.

Frederic Lardinois

1. Digg still won't be bought.
2. Twitter will start to embed advertising into its users streams as it slowly becomes mainstream.
3. Google will finally offer a comprehensive online storage solution and some kind of travel product.
4. Lifestreaming apps like FriendFeed will remain niche products that only serve the early adopter market.
5. Streaming web video to the living room will go mainstream.
6. If Apple finally enables its push server, mobile social networks and geolocation enabled apps will become a major topic next year.

Lidija Davis

1. Google loses goodwill, Yahoo gains.
2. Microsoft resurrects WebTV after buying out Netflix.
3. Mixx concentrates on usability and starts gaining ground on Digg.
4. Facebook has one security incident too many, leading to a decline in popularity.
5. The value of having a unified system for data portability and single sign-in services becomes unmistakable after a significant privacy breach.

Sean Ammirati

1. Twitter will be acquired (probably by Facebook--but multiple suitors will compete for the deal).
2. Due to new leadership and a slow economy that has people more focused on their professional network, LinkedIn will grow in the public's consciousness and more importantly grow their revenue dramatically.
3. Exciting new open source projects will emerge and grow due to a growing number of un/under employed engineers.
4. Unfortunately, Facebook Connect authentication will become dominant method for authentication on the web (while this is my prediction, I'm still rooting for a more open solution).
5. Microsoft will launch a competing platform with Apple's App Store. The reaction from the market will be underwhelming.

Alex Iskold

1. Twitter is going to continue to grow and eventually get acquired, while Facebook is going to see further decline.
2. Amazon will further strengthen its position in the cloud computing market, by launching more of its Web Services and gaining more clients for existing ones.
3. More contextual browsing technologies will hit the market powered by improved top-down semantic recognition engines.
4. The browser wars will further heat up, with Google throwing marketing dollars and distribution deals behind Chrome.

Rick Turoczy

1. With the economy continuing to tank, Microsoft will double-down on its Facebook investment, garnering more control of the company - and more access to the data being gathered through Facebook Connect.
2. Google will finally solve the issues that have prevented its adoption of OpenID logins for all Google services. That, combined with EAUT, will make Gmail accounts the de facto login credential on the Web.
3. One of the major gaming platform companies - Nintendo, Sega, Sony - will begin acquiring small iPhone development shops in an effort to translate titles to the iPhone format and to corner the market on iPhone gaming.
4. Under pressure from iPhone, Android, Symbian, and RIM; Windows Mobile will attempt to reinvent itself. Unfortunately for Microsoft, it will be about as successful as Vista and the Zune.
5. eBay - the Yahoo! of 2009 - oscillates between break-up and acquisition. After a great deal of drama, it will eventually be acquired by Amazon and incorporated into its seller storefront offering.

There you have it, the picks of the ReadWriteWeb team; what about your predictions? Let us know in the comments, so we can check who among us all has gloating rights at the end of 2009.

Peter Kim, a former Forrester analyst now working on stealth enterprise software company, recently polled 14 of the most high-profile thinkers about social media marketing and asked them what they expected to see 2009 bring. The end product was an attractive 23 page PDF that we've embedded below, but we thought we'd pull out some of the thoughts we found most interesting for all you skimmers out there.

"Now with connective technologies like Facebook Connect, Google FriendConnect, and OpenID, consumers will now be able to see reviews, experiences, and critiques from people they actually know and trust." - Jeremiah Owyang, Forrester Research

Our take: Much as we are concerned about the proprietary nature of Facebook Connect in particular, the ease with which people are able to see feedback left by people they know, with confirmed identities, really could be a game changer.

Access

"Twitter will continue to achieve legitimacy. But more than any push-channel, Twitter will give customers, advocates and critics unprecedented access to corporate personnel and vice versa." - Scott Monty, Ford Motor Company (Photo, right, by Wendy Piersall)

Our take: This makes sense, and it's pretty funny to think about. Even the biggest cynics often have a dramatic turn around about Twitter once they start using it, and the intimacy that develops is remarkable. We agree with Monty that this will become increasingly difficult to resist.

Measuring the success of social networks

"Implement listening programs through social media to get real time authentic knowledge that is actionable... Measure with customer service metrics like retention/ satisfaction & social metrics like engagement." - Rohit Bhargava, Ogilvy (Photo by Shashi Bellamkonda)

"Slowly but surely, we're going to develop a set of better metrics to help guide, direct and validate 'commitment'-based marketing and yes, Mr Kim....they will extend beyond the rather short term, blunt metric called ROI". - Joseph Jaffe, Crayon

Our take: Good luck with that, we're not optimistic. This is soft stuff and though clear success speaks for itself, all the gradations between success and failure are going to be very hard to quantify.

Quality vs Quantity in Social Media

"I believe we'll have more focused velvet-rope social networks in 2009 where the tools and the goals match verticals of interest instead of the general commons of Facebook." - Chris Brogan, New Marketing Labs

"Exclusivity trumps accessibility. Having thousands of friends becomes 'so 2008' and defriending becomes the hot new trend, driven by overwhelming rivers of newsfeeds." - Charlene Li, Altimeter Group (Photo by deneyterrio on Flickr)

Our take: Maybe, for some people and in some circumstances this will be the case. We expect most people to find a middle ground between the whole sale slow-down that some seem to expect and an evolutionary adjustment to vastly increased data input.

Making the most of limited budgets

"Dwindling budgets suddenly make low-cost social media look like the pretty girl at the ball. " - Ann Handley, Marketing Profs

"Companies will struggle with how to control who says what -- but will increasingly realize that in an economic downturn, they need all the marketing muscle and leverage they can get and actively encourage." - Charlene Li

Our take: This makes a lot of sense to us, but we expect that it will be tempered by the fear of totally blowing it. Getting into the social media space and doing it wrong is something that a lot of companies fear getting blown apart for. We expect that to change slowly and only for a limited number of companies.

Here's the full document embedded below - what do you think of these predictions?

• YouTube has brokered a deal with Viacom to run full-length episodes of television shows from CBS
• Hulu.com saw a 52.5% month over month increase in traffic in September 2008
• According to Reuters, YouTube boasts 330 million users and Hulu just 3.3 million users

We'd like your help in predicting what the percentage of Microsoft's share of searches will be by December of 2008 following the integration of Live Search on Facebook. Will it increase or decrease and by how much? Click here to cast your prediction.

• The arrangement was first announced in July and offers a revenue opportunity for both companies
• Microsoft owns a stake in Facebook and has an exclusive agreement with the site for banner ads
• Results vary on Facebook and Live.com because Facebook uses certain filters for their search results

Predicting Pandora's New Royalty Rate

In the past few weeks, Pandora was at the forefront of many headlines. The CEO of Pandora fought hard to win a small victory that would grant Internet radio stations more time to reach a new royalty rate agreement with the powers that be. The cut-off time is February 15, 2009, which is right around the corner. We'd like you to predict whether a new royalty rate agreement will be reached in time and what the new royalty rate will be.

Fast Facts

• Senate approved a bill that says Congress must honor any royalty rate agreement reached
• Webcasters and copyright holders have until February 15th to come up with a deal on their own
• Current royalty rates would cost Pandora $18 million of its estimated $25 million in revenue in 2008

We've still yet to have these rumors confirmed, but what if eBay were to actually sell StumbleUpon? Help us predict whether eBay will sell the service by the end of this year and if so, the price tag that it might fetch.

• Reports claim that eBay is in touch with Deutsche Bank to find a buyer.
• eBay purchased StumbleUpon for $75 million 16 months ago.
• In July 2008, StumbleUpon had 1.3 million worldwide visitors, down from 4.4 million a year prior.

Stumble Upon Our Discussion

In addition to reading your predictions, we'd also like to know your thoughts on what this might mean for StumbleUpon community members. Here are some things to discuss in the comments section:

• Will StumbleUpon's growth continue to decrease if the rumors are true?
• If you're a StumbleUpon user, what are your thoughts on how the StumbleUpon community may be affected by a sell?
• If StumbleUpon doesn't sale, what do you think eBay will do with the service?

Looking at the latest data, Hitwise predicts that Google would either enter the automotive or music market next. Both of these are very broad categories with a large range of competitors already operating in them, but then, that has never stopped Google from entering a new market.

Google Autos

Google could easily build a competitor to cars.com, Vehix, or Autotrader by tying together data from its Google Base product (which already has a 'Vehicles' category) and mashing it up into a more comprehensive used car market by also allowing users (or dealers) to easily put up their own cars for sale. As of now, Google is only aggregating data from all the major online car buying sites.

Google Music

Rumors about Google Music have flared up regularly over the last few years, but so far, no actual product has materialized. Entering the music business is obviously fraught with problems for any new player. Given the issues around licensing music, as well as its failure in selling videos on Google Videos, Google might not want to develop a mainstream music platform.

What Google could do, though, would be to offer a platform for independent musicians, somewhat akin to what MySpace was in its early days or what AmieStreet does today.

Google Travel

Given Google's background in search, we think Google might also be likely to develop a competitor to the large travel aggregator sites like Kayak or FareCompare. Not only is this a market where Google could develop a decent revenue stream outside of its core advertising market, but it would fit in right with Google's core expertise. As of now, Google only links to Kayak, Expedia, Hotwire and others when you enter the right query into its search engine, but it doesn't display any actual results itself yet.

Our Prediction: Travel is Next

If Google is indeed trying to fill out all of these major niches with a product of its own, we think a travel product is still Google's most likely next move. It is not only the closest to Google's core competency of search, but Google could also easily put ads on there as well.

That time is clearly fast approaching and it makes us wonder: now that this matter is settled, what comes next? We asked a variety of people here and around the web what they thought will define the next frontier, what will build on the emerging foundation of ubiquitous APIs. We got some interesting answers.

For now though, let's acknowledge that there are scores and scores of companies that have considered the pros and cons and decided to launch APIs. Answers to our question about the future ranged from the technical to the social, political and economic. They often fell into a small number of big-picture trains of thought. We hope you'll share your thoughts on the future in comments.

The most interesting replies to the question - "what comes next after APIs become ubiquitous?" can be summarized as follows:

• Business models
• Filtering for information overload
• Standards and interoperability
• Outsourcing API services
• Backlash

Backlash is included in our list because there is definitely some push back. Some folks think APIs are for suckers. We don't agree but those responses were interesting as well.

Business models

Perhaps inspired by a touch of cynicism, many of the people we talked to said that finding business models was the next frontier for an API enabled web.

Nick Gonzales of ad network Social Media said that the early rush to build apps on the Facebook platform should be considered the exception more than the rule. He says it was remarkably easy to build apps on that platform but that hasn't helped developers make money outside of Facebook. It hasn't been the kind of opportunity that many big companies have taken advantage of yet, either.

What he believes may be necessary in order for big money to be made is long term agreements between platforms and developers, assuring continuity of availability and opportunities to monetize.

Gonzales addresses monetization from an ad network perspective, but other business model options include premium access to APIs or - more likely in this author's opinion - APIs leveraged for lead generation.

Filtering for information overload

It's one thing to smash together different streams of data, but making sure the results are user friendly is another matter. Many people we talked to said they wanted APIs and platforms to increase their capacity for determining relevance.

Student entrepreneur Abhishek Nayak put it well when he called for a future characterized by "better platforms like FriendFeed, to make sense of all the information and noise from your social networks." Blogger Eric Eldon of VentureBeat felt similarly when asked what comes next. "FriendFeed will rule," was his three word answer to the question. How incredible is it that such a young startup has gained Twitter-like metaphor power already?

Ian Kennedy of Yahoo's MyBlogLog predicted that filtering and duplication removal will be big. Software consultant Lokkju Brennr got even more specific: "It will have to be actual natural language parsing," he told us, "combine that with all those APIs, and you have knowledge, instead of just data."

All of those are fun things to think about and bring to mind the semantic web technologies we write about here often as well.

Standards and interoperability

The most obvious answer to this question as far as we're concerned is that the next step is to make ubiquitous APIs standards-based and able to work together.

Tech consultant and co-founder of the Yahoo! Developer Network Jeffrey McManus disagreed with the assessment of APIs being truly widespread but said "the next step is to make them not suck and support them well."

Probably the easiest way to do that is to build them on existing standards. Though many of those are still half-baked pipe dreams today, that's not true in every case. See Anil Dash of SixApart, for example, who says that "AtomPub has become the standard for accessing cloud-based data storage."

Florida venture capitalist Dan Rua puts it this way: "after ubiquitous APIs comes category subsystems/adapters, allowing for write once, run with any similar service type abstraction."

One of the most interesting replies we got to our question was from Aaron Fulkerson of MindTouch. Aaron says that the next step is for developers to engineer for concurrent processing; to make APIs not just interoperable but intelligently orchestrated to be called in concert. The idea here is to create multi-step or functional mashups. He didn't just come up with that off the top of his head on the floor of the Web 2.0 Expo - it turns out that Mindtouch offers an Open Source framework to accomplish exactly what he's describing as the flavor of the future.

Fulkerson wasn't alone in his hopeful prediction, either, though. Ruby geek Audrey Eschright called for something similar: "Real innovation in the services built on top?" she asked rhetorically. "Not just content mashups, but new kinds of tools."

That sounds great to me.

Outsourcing API services

One of the companies we write about often here is Mashery, a startup that manages APIs for companies who want to offer them but prefer to outsource their management to knowledgeable experts. Mashery reports rapid growth and could represent a key part of the future.

We hear whispers about a number of beyond-stealth startups, too, that are aimed at solving the scalability problems faced by some of the most popular APIs on the web. That's not at all a dry matter - commoditization of solutions to the biggest technical bottlenecks in making APIs work would open up a whole new world of possibilities.

While this may be the most hard-business vision of the next frontier, it's also one of the visions I get most giddy about. Any time I get giddy it's probably a good idea to talk about...

Backlash

Many people we talked to said that the next step was likely to be one going backwards, away from the frothy wave of "Me Too" APIs and platform announcements.

We heard this from some people we really didn't expect it from. David Janes, creator of a sophisticated lifestreaming app for groups called Onaswarm summarized his feelings thusly: "How about a return to using well-known protocols (as opposed to APIs) for doing well-understood tasks, i.e. publishing and posting data. E.g. RSS/MetaweblogAPI or Atom/APP...It's insane...I've had more than my fill of working with these APIs." When I pinged him to confirm those lines - he said that it would more accurately explain how he felt about the APIs he's been working with if there were some obscenities sprinkled into his quote. That from a man who has put his hand into the dragon's mouth. If you will.

Similar sentiments were expressed by Len Kirby, engineering director at Flock. Flock is a social browser that brings together a large number of social data streams and functionality from all around the web. None the less, Kirby is no fanboy of the latest wave of APIs and platforms.

He told us that he thinks the next step in fact may be going back to predictability based on finished standards; as opposed to the half-baked protocols of industry luminaries that didn't finish developing proposed standards. Tempering his vitriol just a touch, this manager at a company built on Mozilla technology also shared some sympathy. "Just like any visionaries there's only so much time to make things real and [for example, coming out of] Mozila and RDF there's been a lot of very good things - but time to market rules." Kirby made sure to affirm as well that Flock really does love Mozilla.

Everyone's got a soft spot for inventors, but a substantial number of people are pushing back on the deafening roar of announcements about new frameworks for invention.

That said, you won't likely hear any of those voices blogging here at ReadWriteWeb! We think that today's crush of APIs and platforms is just the beginning, that we're at a turning point of innovation. We love it and intend to chronicle the next steps as best we can.

Here at the Web 2.0 Expo there's plenty of opportunity to discuss what that future might look like. Internet time traveler Dion Hinchcliffe counted nine major web mashup announcements at the event before lunch today and asked if critical mass had been reached. If that's not true yet, all indications are that it certainly will be soon.

So check out our predictions for '08 and please contribute your own in the comments. Also you may want to review our track record for 2007 Web predictions.

1. Semantic Apps will become popular in 2008, due to their ability to get better content results and make better data connections. Think search engines like Hakia and Powerset, wikipedia-like efforts like Twine and Freebase, and apps that use semantic technologies under the hood (such as AdaptiveBlue and Snap).

2. In tandem with #1, Google will experiment more with Semantic Apps in '08. The Knols project, although not overly semantic, is a hint of this direction.

3. Web Services platforms will be a fierce battleground in '08, with Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Mozilla and others competing to provide 'Web OS' and online storage to consumers. Unfortunately this may spell the end of a number of startups in this space.

4. Zoho and/or ThinkFree will be acquired by big companies wanting to leapfrog into the Web Office space.

5. The online advertising market will consolidate, after the spate of acquisitions in 2007. CPM will continue to dominate for media brands and CPC for niche sites, although there will be experimentation in VRM and other forms of highly specific targeting of ads. Privacy issues will prevent the latter from becoming mainstream though. The much-hyped CPA (Cost per Action) will continue to be a pipe dream, because publishers simply don't want it.

6. The big Internet companies will surprise us all by embracing open standards, and attempting to compete with each other with features instead of data lock-in (OK, this could just be wishful thinking!).

7. The most interesting innovations on the Web in 2008 won't happen in Silicon Valley, but in Asia (China, Japan, Korea). At least one startup from China will break through in the US market with Twitter-like success in 2008 - and it will almost certainly be a Mobile Web app.

Marshall Kirkpatrick, Lead Writer, ReadWriteWeb:

1. Twitter will be acquired.

2. Most ad networks will start producing their own content to advertise against; and some content companies today will get acquired by ad networks.

3. Online video will become so ubiquitous, including live and mobile, that everyone will wonder how the internet existed without it. It won't feel like a big deal, though.

4. A handful of big companies will let you start logging in with an OpenID associated with your account.

5. The value of recommendation engines will become all the more clear; the era of data will be celebrated.

6. People will rebel against Google, at least a little bit. Maybe.

7. People engaged in the new web will do some really awesome stuff that we'll all be in awe of.

Josh Catone, Lead Writer, ReadWriteWeb:

1. Tumblr will be acquired.

2. Privacy will be a growing concern in the mainstream, but ultimately people won't really take any action and for the most part, things won't change. Some companies and groups (think Mozilla) will push for better privacy controls for users, while others (think Facebook) will continue to push the envelope and continue down a slippery slope. Users will eventually push back, but I am hesitant to say that proverbial "straw that breaks the camel's back" will come in 2008.

3. OpenID will be adopted by more startups and larger web companies, but most people (mainstream users) still won't use it - that's a couple of years off.

4. Facebook will continue to grow and their platform will be adopted by other large social networks. Google will sweat.

5. Mobile web usage will be a big story in 2008. It's already big in many parts of the world; and Westerners are about to get hooked. With new mobile devices that makes web surfing less painful, people will be more and more connected away from their computers.

6. Mainstream media coverage will be a catalyst for the adoption of Web Office apps by consumers; and Microsoft will eventually be forced to change their Web Office strategy and offer a fully online office suite (but that latter won't happen in 2008). Offline mode (Gears, AIR, Silverlight, etc.) will be what really tips the scales and causes mainstream users to to embrace the as-of-yet unfamiliar world of Web Office applications.

Alex Iskold, Feature Writer, ReadWriteWeb:

1. 2008 will be slow and cautious, with the first half dominated by recession or fear of recession.

2. Facebook is going to see the same kind of decline in popularity in 2008 that MySpace saw in 2007.

3. Digg is going to be acquired by one of the mainstream media conglomerates.

4. Implicit applications, which monitor our habits and automatically infer our likes, will rise.

Emre Sokullu, Feature Writer, ReadWriteWeb

1. Facebook will acquire companies that do the following, in order to strengthen their advertising unit: personalization, behavior tracking, image recognition (Riya?)

2. Facebook will release a browser.

3. However, despite all that... Facebook will decline.

4. Google OpenSocial will be a failure; Google will try to create its own social networking empire by making acquisitions in this space.

5. Microsoft will become more aggresive and buy many popular companies at once (remember Ballmer's quote). Candidates include SixApart, Technorati.

Sean Ammirati, Editor, ReadWriteTalk (our podcast show):

1. Google will really start looking vulnerable in 2008. While the 'one trick pony' comment by Steve Ballmer drew sarcastic responses, this will begin to look prophetic. While they'll maintain market share in the search industry, the lack of traction in any other of their other initiatives will start to cause frustration. Plus, they will increasingly be perceived as the 'evil' company in many of these new initiatives.

2. Closely related, Yahoo's Hack strategy (see ReadWriteTalk's podcast with Bradley Horowitz) will start to bear fruit and things will look much more optimistic in Sunnyvale this year.

3. Facebook will start to feel pressure from two trends that will emerge on the web: distributed social networks and distributed commerce systems. For distributed commerce systems, look to see a first proof of concept from the VRM project. Chris Messina's diso project with Wordpress will be a great proof of concept for distributed social neworks.

4. Non-search advertising on the web will increase in value significantly. This will be done through a lot of innovation in the ad targeting systems (both behavioral and contextual) and new metrics being adopted by Madison Ave beyond CPC and CPM.

5. There will be a lot of innovation in the hyper-local space, putting the final nail in the newspaper industry's coffin. This will include companies like Outside.in and Yelp moving toward widespread use and new web properties (from both startups and big Internet Cos) emerging.

6. Finally, a 3G iPhone! OK, I don't know if this is a prediction, but I really really want it to be true :)

Charles Knight, Editor, AltSearchEngines (RWW network blog)

1. In the 1st Q 2008, the true "Google Killer" in search will be in Stealth Mode. In 2nd Q 2008 the first prototype will begin in closed Alpha mode. In 3rd Q 2008 it will be ready for the final closed Beta testing. In 4th Q 2008 it will launch and "Rock and Shock" the world!

2. The classic Vertical Search Engines (Job Search, Health, Consumer Electronics, Shopping, Video, People, more...) will continue their dominance over all other Search Engines in their various niches.

3. The Alternative Search Engines will pick up the pace of partnerships and cooperation, for their solid mutual benefit.

4. Mainstream Media interest in the Alts will increase until it begins to rival coverage of the five major search engines.

5. The trend towards 'widgetization' of the Alts will continue. Approximately 2 in 10 Alternative Search Engines (20%) have widgets now, and that number will double in 2008 to 4 in 10 or 40%.

Conclusion

Now it's time for you to tell us your Web predictions for 2008. Please leave a comment or trackback below!

Crystal Ball image by Blue Cubic Electron Syncrony, via Flickr